McKesson (MCK) is the silent behemoth of the U.S. corporate world that's likely slipped under your radar. As the ninth-largest U.S. company by revenue, it doesn’t grab the headlines like some of its pharmaceutical peers. However, with a robust 22% stock gain this year alone, investors might want to sharpen their focus on this quiet achiever.
Now, you might mistake McKesson for a pharmacy benefit manager like Cigna Group's (CI) Express Scripts or UnitedHealth Group’s (UNH) OptumRx. But it doesn't stand shoulder-to-shoulder with pharmaceutical giants such as Pfizer (PFE) or Merck (MRK). Instead, its pivotal role ensures that prescription medications, consumed by a large fraction of Americans, reach their intended destinations.
Their operational model cuts through the noise: acquire medications from manufacturers and deliver them seamlessly to pharmacies. This spans local establishments and major national chains, including stalwarts like Walmart (WMT) and CVS Health (CVS).
Distributing medications is intricate. Not any logistics company can step up to the plate. These drugs, strictly governed by regulations, demand precision in handling and transit. Specific conditions are mandatory to retain their efficacy and, ultimately, their trust with consumers.
Newcomers in the pharmaceutical space, such as Ely Lilly’s (LLY) Mounjaro and Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Ozempic, are set to further accelerate McKesson's growth trajectory. McKesson's operations, in tandem with Cardinal Health (CAH) and Cencora (COR)—the former AmerisourceBergen—underscore the dominance of this trio in the industry.
Given their consistent performance and notable market share, there's no mistaking their leadership. From an investor's lens, their well-established distribution networks translate to attractive returns.
The narrative enveloping McKesson has matured, particularly in the wake of the pandemic. Pre-COVID-19, the air was thick with concerns – potential drug price regulations, whispers about executive remuneration, and the ever-looming shadow of opioid liabilities.
In recent history, McKesson navigated tumultuous waters. They confronted their role in the opioid saga, culminating in a staggering $7.4 billion settlement spanning two decades. Such a settlement, rooted in claims of McKesson's hand in opioid distribution, marked a challenging chapter in the company's journey. But, like all resilient entities, they emerged with lessons and a sharper focus.
Refocusing on its core competency in drug distribution, the future projections for McKesson radiate optimism. Sales are on track for a 10% rise by fiscal 2024, aiming for the $304 billion mark. On the earnings front, a hike of 4.8% is forecasted, reaching $27.20 a share, followed by a notable ascent to 13.4% in fiscal 2025 – a jump to $30.84 a share.
While profit margins have hovered around the 4.8% range over half a decade, the company's cash flow paints a promising picture. With a robust $5 billion cash flow from the previous fiscal year, the announcement of a $6 billion share repurchase plan indicates a stronger, more liquid financial position.
McKesson’s journey, past and present, casts it as a promising investment, both for its operational prowess and its strategic repurchase blueprint. Examining its financial statements reveals a commendable reduction in net debt over the past triennium.
When McKesson is pitted against the likes of Cardinal and Cencora, optimism for its prospects feels natural. Projections indicate a growth rate between 12-14% in the years on the horizon, potentially crowning it as an industry vanguard. Valued at 15.6 times forward earnings, even if it inches above its five-year mean, the stock's appeal remains intact. Given its robust growth metrics, the stock seems a potential bargain, especially when juxtaposed with fellow S&P 500 members.
And there's more in the mix. With McKesson poised to ride the wave of prescription surges, particularly from premium medications like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro, revenue streams seem destined for an upward course. A sentiment echoed by industry comrades, Cardinal and Cencora.
To encapsulate, in the expansive tableau of the pharmaceutical sector, where innovation meets timely delivery, McKesson etches its mark. As the healthcare matrix continues its evolution, especially in a world reshaped by a pandemic, the resilience and growth story of McKesson becomes hard to sidestep for the discerning investor. It's high time investors pivot their gaze towards this under-the-radar giant, poised for more milestones.
