Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 5, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE HIGH COST OF DRIVING OUT OUR FOREIGN TECHNOLOGISTS),
(EA), (ADBE), (BABA), (BIDU), (FB), (GOOGL), (TWTR)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 5, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE HIGH COST OF DRIVING OUT OUR FOREIGN TECHNOLOGISTS),
(EA), (ADBE), (BABA), (BIDU), (FB), (GOOGL), (TWTR)
There is only so much juice you can squeeze from a lemon before nothing is left.
Silicon Valley has been focused mainly on squeezing the juice out of the Internet for the past 30 years with intense focus on the American consumer.
In an era of minimal regulation, companies grew at breakneck speeds right into families' living quarters and it was a win-win proposition for both the user and the Internet.
The cream of the crop ideas was found briskly, and the low hanging fruit was pocketed by the venture capitalists (VCs).
That was then, and this is now.
No longer will VCs simply invest in various start-ups and 10 years later a Facebook (FB) or Alphabet (GOOGL) appears out of thin air.
That story is over. Facebook was the last one in the door.
VCs will become more selective because brilliant ideas must withstand the passage of time. Companies want to continue to be relevant in 20 or 30 years and not just disintegrate into obsolescence as did the Eastman Kodak Company, the doomed maker of silver-based film.
The San Francisco Bay Area is the mecca of technology, but recent indicators have presaged the upcoming trends that will reshape the industry.
In general, a healthy and booming local real estate sector is a net positive creating paper wealth for its local people and attracting money slated for expansion.
However, it's crystal clear the net positive has flipped, and housing is now a buzzword for the maladies young people face to sustain themselves in the ultra-expensive coastal Northern California megacities.
The loss of tax deductions in the recent tax bill make conditions even more draconian.
Monthly rental costs are deterring tech's future minions. Without the droves of talent flooding the area, it becomes harder for the industry to incrementally expand.
It also boosts the costs of existing development/operations staffers whose capital feeds back into the local housing market buying whatever they can barely afford for astronomical prices.
Another price spike ensues with first-time home buyers piling into already bare-bones inventory because of the fear of missing out (FOMO).
After surveying HR tech heads, it's clear there aren't enough artificial intelligence (A.I.) programmers and coders to fill internal projects.
Compounding the housing crisis is the change of immigration policy that has frightened off many future Silicon Valley workers.
There is no surprise that millions of aspiring foreign students wish to take advantage of America's treasure of a higher education because there is nothing comparable at home.
The best and brightest foreign minds are trained in America, and a mass exodus would create an even fiercer deficit for global dev-ops talent.
These U.S.-trained foreign tech workers are the main drivers of foreign tech start-ups.
Dangling carrots and sticks for a chance to start an embryonic project in the cozy confines of home is hard to pass up.
Ironically enough, there are more A.I. computer scientists of Chinese origin in America than there are in all of China.
There is a huge movement by the Chinese private sector to bring everyone back home as China vies to become the industry leader in A.I.
Silicon Valley is on the verge of a brain drain of mythical proportions.
If America allows all these brilliant minds to fly home, not only to China but everywhere else, America is just training these workers to compete against American workers.
A premier example is Baidu co-founder Robin Li who received his master's degree in computer science from the State University of New York at Buffalo in 1994.
After graduation, his first job was at Dow Jones & Company, a subsidiary of News Corp., writing code for the online version of the Wall Street Journal.
During this stint, he developed an algorithm for ranking search results that he patented, flew back to China, created the Google search engine equivalent, and named it Baidu (BIDU).
Robin Li is now one of the richest people in China with a fortune of close to $20 billion.
To show it's not just a one-hit-wonder type scenario, three of the top five start-ups are currently headquartered in Beijing and not in California.
The most powerful industry in America's economy is just a transient training hub for foreign nationals before they go home to make the real moola.
More than 70% of tech employees in Silicon Valley and more than 50% in the San Francisco Bay Area are foreign, according to the 2016 census data.
Adding insult to injury, the exorbitant cost of housing is preventing burgeoning American talent from migrating from rural towns across America and moving to the Bay Area.
They make it as far West as Salt Lake City, Reno, or Las Vegas.
Instead of living a homeless life in Golden Gate Park, they decide to set up shop in a second-tier American city after horror stories of Bay Area housing starts populate their friends' Instagram feeds and are shared a million times over.
This trend was reinforced by domestic migration statistics.
Between 2007 and 2016, 5 million people moved to California, and 6 million people moved out of the state.
The biggest takeaways are that many of these new California migrants are from New York, possess graduate degrees, and command an annual salary of more than $110,000.
Conversely, Nevada, Arizona, and Texas have major inflows of migrants that mostly earn less than $50,000 per year and are less educated.
That will change in the near future.
Ultimately, if VCs think it is expensive now to operate a start-up in Silicon Valley, it will be costlier in the future.
Pouring gasoline on the flames, Northern California schools are starting to fold like a house of cards due to minimal household formation wiping out student numbers.
The dire shortage of affordable housing is the region's No. 1 problem.
A 1,066-sq.-ft. property in San Jose's Willow Glen neighborhood went on sale for $800,000.
This would be considered an absolute steal at this price, but the catch is the house was badly burned two years ago. This is the price for a teardown.
When you combine the housing crisis with the price readjustment for big data, it looks as if Silicon Valley has peaked or at the very least it's not cheap.
Yes, the FANGs will continue their gravy train, but the next big thing to hit tech will not originate from California.
VCs will overwhelmingly invest in data over rental bills. The percolation of tech ingenuity will likely pop up in either Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, or yes, even Michigan.
Even though these states attract poorer migrants, the lower cost of housing is beginning to attract tech professionals who can afford more than a burned down shack.
Washington state has become a hotbed for bitcoin activity. Small rural counties set in the Columbia Basin such as Chelan, Douglas, and Grant used to be farmland.
The bitcoin industry moved three hours east of Seattle for one reason and one reason only - cost.
Electricity is five times cheaper there because of fluid access to plentiful hydro-electric power.
Many business decisions come down to cost, and a fractional advantage of pennies.
Globalization has supercharged competition, and technology is the lubricant fueling competition to new heights.
Once millennials desire to form families, the only choices are regions where housing costs are affordable and areas that aren't bereft of tech talent.
Cities such as Las Vegas and Reno in Nevada; Austin, Texas; Phoenix, Arizona; and Salt Lake City, Utah, will turn into hotbeds of West Coast growth engines just as Hangzhou, China-based Alibaba (BABA) turned that city into more than a sleepy backwater town with a big lake at its center.
The overarching theme of decentralizing is taking the world by storm. The built-up power levers in Northern California are overheated, and the decentralization process will take many years to flow into the direction of these smaller but growing cities.
Salt Lake City, known as Silicon Slopes, has been a tech magnet of late with big players such as Adobe (ADBE), Twitter (TWTR), and EA Sports (EA) opening new branches there while Reno has become a massive hotspot for data server farms. Nearby Sparks hosts Tesla's Gigafactory 1 along with massive data centers for Apple, Alphabet, and Switch.
The half a billion-dollars required to build a proper tech company will stretch further in Austin or Las Vegas, and most of the funds will be reserved for tech talent - not slum landlords.
The nail in the coffin will be the millions saved in state taxes.
The rise of the second-tier cities is the key to staying ahead of the race for tech supremacy.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"Twitter is about moving words. Square is about moving money," - said CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey, to The New Yorker, October 2013.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 27, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DON'T NAP ON ROKU)
(MSFT), (ROKU), (AMZN), (AAPL), (CBS), (DIS), (NFLX), (TWTR), (SQ), (FB)
Unique assets stand the test of time.
In an era of unprecedented disruption, unique assets' strength begets strength.
This is one of the big reasons the vaunted FANG group has carved out power gains in the business landscape bestowed with a largesse dwarfing any other sector.
As the FANGs trot out to imminent profitability by supercharging massive scale, the emerging tech environment gives food for thought.
These up-and-coming companies fight tooth and nail to elevate themselves to FANG status because of the ease of operating in a duopoly or an outright monopoly.
Microsoft (MSFT) is the closest substitute to an outright FANG. In many ways CEO Satya Nadella has positioned himself better than Facebook (FB) and Apple.
The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has pounced on the newest kids on the block offering subscribers buy, sell or hold recommendations zoning in on the best first and second tier companies in tech land.
The top echelon of the second tier is led by no other than Jack Dorsey and both of his companies, Square (SQ) and Twitter (TWTR), offer idiosyncratic services that cannot be found elsewhere.
I have devoted stories to Dorsey gushing about his ability to build a company and rightly so.
Another solid second tier tech company bringing uniqueness to the table is Roku (ROKU), which I have talked about in glowing terms before when I wrote, "How Roku is Winning the Streaming Wars."
To read the archived story, please click here.
Roku is a cluster of in-house, manufactured, online streaming devices offering OTT (over-the-top) content in the form of channels on its proprietary platform.
The word Roku means six in Japanese and it was chosen because Roku was the sixth company established by founder and CEO Anthony Wood commencing in 2002.
Cord-cutting has been a much-covered topic in my newsletters and this generational shift in consumer behavior benefits Roku the most.
In 2017, 25% of televisions purchased were Roku TVs. According to several reports, more than half of all streaming players purchased last year were Roku players.
This would explain how Roku has shifted its income streams from the physical box itself to selling ads and licensing agreements.
Yes, Roku earns the lion's share of its profits similar to the rogue ad seller Facebook.
Roku does not actually sell anything physical except the box you need to operate Roku, which earned Roku a fixed $30 per unit.
The box serves as the gateway to its platform where it sells ads. Migrating to higher caliber digital businesses like selling ads will stunt the hardware revenue part of its business.
That is all part of the plan.
A new survey conducted regarding fresh cord-cutters demonstrated that out of 2,000 cord-cutters questioned, 70% already had a Roku player and felt no need to pay for cable TV anymore.
Second on the list was Amazon Fire TV at 34%, and Apple TV (AAPL) came in third at 10%.
The dominant position has forced content creators to pander toward Roku TV's platform because third-party content creators do not want to miss out on a huge swath of cord-cutter millennials who are entering into their peak spending years and spend most of their time parked on Roku's platform.
Surveys have shown that millennials do not need a million different streaming services.
They only choose one or two for main functionality, and in most cases, these are Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN).
Roku allows both these services to be integrated onto its platform. Cord-cutters can supplement their Netflix and Amazon Prime Video binge with a few more a la carte channels to their preference depending on points of interest.
In general, this is how millennials are setting up their entertainment routine, and all roads don't lead through Rome, but Roku.
If the massive scale continues at this pace, 2020 could be the year profitability explodes through the roof.
The next 18 months should give way to parabolic spikes, followed by consolidation to higher lows in the share price.
When I recommended this stock, its shares were trading at a tad above $32 on April 18, 2018, and immediately spiked to $47 on June 20, 2018.
The tariff sell-off hit most second tier tech companies flush in the mouth. The 5% and occasional 7% intraday sell-offs churn the stomach like Mumbai street food during the height of the Indian summer.
That is part and parcel of dipping your toe into these rising stars.
The move ups are parabolic, but the sell-offs make your hair fall out.
Well, glue your locks back onto your scalp, because we have reached another entry point.
Roku is now trading back down in the low $40 range, and I would bet my retirement fund that Roku will end the year above $50.
This unique company is expected to grow its subscriber base by at least 20% annually, and in five years total subscribers will eclipse 45 million users.
Reinforcing its industry leadership, traditional media companies such as Disney and CBS do not have built-in streaming viewership that comes close to touching Roku.
This has forced these traditional media giants to push their content through Roku or lose a huge amount of the 18 to 34 age bracket for which advertisers yearn.
These traditional players are armed with robust ad budgets, and a good bulk of it is allocated to Roku among others.
For each additional a la carte channel users sign up for on Roku, the company earns a sales commission.
As a tidal wave of niche streaming channels plan to hit the market, the first place they will look to is Roku's platform and this trend will only become stronger with time.
A prominent example was Sling TV, which showed up at Roku's front door first before circling around the rest of the neighborhood.
The runway for Roku's three main businesses of video ads, display ads, and licensing with streaming partners, is long and robust.
The one caveat is the fierce competition from Amazon Fire TV, which puts its in-house content on Amazon front and center when you start the experience.
Roku has head and shoulders above the biggest library of content, and the Amazon effect could scare traditional media for licensing content to Amazon.
We have seen the trend of major players removing their content from streamers because of the inherent conflict of interests licensing content to them while they are developing an in-house business.
It makes no sense to voluntarily offer an advantage to competition.
Roku has no plans to initiate its own in-house original content, and this is the main reason that Amazon and Netflix will lose out on Disney (DIS), CBS (CBS), NBC, and Fox content going forward.
These traditional players categorize Roku as a partner and not a foe.
To get into bed with the traditional media giants means digital ads and lots of them. In terms of a user experience, the absence of ads on Netflix and Amazon is a huge positive for the consumer experience.
But traditional players have the option of bundling ads and content together on Roku making Roku even more of a diamond in the rough.
In short, nobody offers the type of supreme aggregator experience, deep penetration of cord-cutting viewership, and the best streaming content on one graphic interface like Roku.
It is truly an innovative company, and it is in the driver's seat to this magnificent growth story.
It's hard to argue with CEO Anthony Wood when he says that Roku is the future of TV.
He might be right.
If Roku keeps pushing the envelope enhancing its product, it will be front and center as a potential takeover target by a bigger tech company.
Either way, the scarcity value of these types of assets will drive its share prices to the moon, just avoid the nasty sell-offs.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"Google's not a real company. It's a house of cards," - said former CEO of Microsoft Steve Ballmer.
Global Market Comments
June 25, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR IS THIS A 1999 REPLAY?),
(AAPL), (FB), (NFLX), (AMZN), (GE), (WBT),
(JOIN ME ON THE QUEEN MARY 2 FOR MY JULY 11, 2018 SEMINAR AT SEA),
(JUNE 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SQ), (PANW), (FEYE), (FB), (LRCX), (BABA), (MOMO), (IQ), (BIDU), (AMD), (MSFT), (EDIT), (NTLA), Bitcoin, (FXE), (SPY), (SPX)
Another week, another trade war.
The stock market did not take well the administration's escalation of international tensions by threatening to increase Chinese imports subject to punitive duties from $50 billion to $250 billion.
Today, it got much worse with our government now targeting French luxury goods, including wine, handbags, and Roquefort cheese.
Please! Anything but the Roquefort cheese!
In the meantime technicians are getting increasingly nervous about the market concentration. Take out the top-performing 15 stocks, such as big tech and Boeing (BA) and we are already in a bear market. Some 60% of S&P 500 stocks are below their 200-day moving averages and in solid downtrends.
One manager told me that a year from now we will be kicking ourselves for not selling, for all the signs to get out of Dodge were there.
In the meantime, I am hearing an alternative theory about technology stocks. The earnings growth is so prolific that they could continue to melt up for the rest of 2018. Indeed, Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), and Salesforce (CRM) all hit new all-time highs this week.
Tech stocks are melting up because of blowout earnings expected in a month. After all, in this industry great quarters are followed by more great quarters.
By my calculation the shares prices of technology stocks have to double to bring their market capitalization of only 26% in line with their 50% share of the S&P 500 total earnings.
By the way, California now accounts for 19% of the U.S. population, 21% of U.S. GDP, but a staggering 35% of corporate profits, with two of four FANGs just spitting distance from my office.
Holy smokes! Are we seeing a replay of 1999, the notorious dot-com bubble top?
I hope not. Tech earnings multiples now average 25X compared to 100X back in the day. But this analysis does neatly fit in with my prediction that stocks top in the May-September 2019 time frame.
Last week also saw the shares of General Electric (GE) tossed on the ashcan of history, and the stock was taken out of the Dow Average, to be replaced by sedentary drug store Walgreens (WBA).
That's what a decade of lousy management gets you, which has vaporized a half trillion dollars of market capitalization since 2000. Back then, GE was the largest market cap company in the world, the equivalent of Apple (AAPL) today.
During this same time Apple created $900 billion in new market cap, the shares rocketing from $2.50 to $195. What a trade! Long Apple, short (GE) for 18 years.
As for Apple, it is unique among the FANGs in having the biggest exposure to China. It employs 1 million there, sells more iPhones in the Middle Kingdom than in the U.S., and is crucial to the company's long-term growth plans. The rest of the FANGs have virtually NO China exposure.
This realization caused me to stop out of my position in Apple shares for a loss during its $12 plunge off its all-time high at $195. That brought my 2018 year-to-date performance down to 24.91% and my 8 1/2 year return to 301.38%.
Fortunately, aggressive longs in Amazon, Salesforce, Microsoft, and the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) still have me up +4.54% in June, my 12th consecutive positive month.
This coming week will be all about the May real estate and housing data, which we already know will be hotter than a pistol.
On Monday, June 25, at 10:00 AM, May New Home Sales are out.
On Tuesday, June 26, at 9:00 AM, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for April is released. May Consumer Confidence is out at 10:00 AM.
On Wednesday, June 27, at 8:30 AM, May Durable Goods is published. May Pending Home Sales are out at 10:00 AM.
Thursday, June 28, leads with the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST, which saw a fall of 3,000 last week to 218,000. Also announced is another read on US Q1 GDP. The last report came in at a moderate 2.2%.
On Friday, June 29, at 9:45 AM EST, we get the May Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Then the Baker Hughes Rig Count is announced at 1:00 PM EST.
As for me, I will be headed to Los Angeles for my one beach weekend this year. Got to keep those body surfing skills finely tuned, and I'll have a chance to work on my tan before going to sea for a week in July.
In California it's all about the tan.
Good Luck and Good Trading.
Below please find subscribers' Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader June 20 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.
As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!
Q: What are your thoughts on Square (SQ) as a credit spread or buyout proposition?
A: I love Square long term, and I think there's another double in it. They were a takeover target, but now the stock's getting so expensive it may not be worth it. So, Square is a buy. However, look for a summer sell-off to get into a new position.
Q: The FANGs feel a little bubbly here; will they pull back on a market dip?
A: Yes, my entire portfolio of FANG options is designed to expire on the July 20th expiration. In fact, I may even come out before then as we reach the maximum profit point on these option call spreads. Then look for a summer meltdown to get back in. The FANGs could double from here. If I am wrong they will just continue to go straight up.
Q: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has a new CEO; are you concerned?
A: Absolutely not, I love Palo Alto networks, as well as the (FEYE) FireEye. It's just a question of getting in at the right price. It's one of the many ballistic stocks in Tech this year that we've been recommending for a long time. Hacking an online theft is never going to go out of style.
Q: Is it time to sell Facebook (FB)?
A: Yes, if you're a trader. No, if you're a long-term investor. There's another double in it. You're going to have natural profit taking on all of these Techs for the short-term, and possibly for the summer, because they've just had enormous runs. If you aren't in the FANGs this year, you basically don't have any performance because almost all of the rest of the market has gone down.
Q: What are your thoughts on Lam Research (LRCX)?
A: The whole chip sector has had two big sell-offs this year because of their China exposure and the trade wars. Expect more to come. China gets 80% of their chips from the U.S. This is normal at the end of a 10-year bull market. It's also normal when a sector transitions from highly cyclical to secular, which is what's happening in the chip sector. Twice the volatility gets you twice the returns.
Q: Would you stay away from Chinese stocks like Alibaba (BABA), Momo Inc.(MOMO), IQ (IQ), and Baidu (BIDU)?
A: I have stayed away because of the trade war fears, and it was the completely wrong thing to do, because they've gone up as much as our Tech stocks, except for the last week. So yes, I would be buying dips on these big Chinese Tech stocks, because they are drinking the same Kool Aid as our Techs, and it's working.
Q: I hear that short selling of volatility is coming back; is that a good thing?
A: Actually, it is a good thing, because it creates buyers on these dips when you had no short sellers left. The entire industry got wiped out in February creating $8 billion in losses. There was no one left to cover those shorts and support the market. Of course, the result was we got a lower low down here because of that. It's always better to have a two-way market to get a real price. Now professionals are sneaking back in on the short side, which is as it should be. This should never have been a retail product.
Q: Why are international markets so disconnected from the U.S.? Many Asian markets are down heavily while the U.S. are up.
A: The U.S. stock market benefits from a rising dollar and rising interest rates, whereas international markets suffer. When you have weak currencies in the emerging markets, people sell their stocks to avoid the currency hit, and that takes the emerging markets down massively. A lot of emerging market companies have their debts denominated in U.S. dollars, so they get killed by a strong greenback. Also, the emerging markets make a lot of money selling goods into China, so when the Chinese economy gets attacked by the U.S. and growth slows, it has the byproduct of attacking all our other allies in Southeast Asia.
Q: Is it a good idea to sell everything for the summer and just de-risk for my portfolio?
A: That's what I'm doing. Summer trading is usually horrible, and now we're going into the summer at close to a high for the year, with a terrible political backdrop and possible economic growth peaking right here. So, yes, it's a good time to sit back, count your money, and maybe even spend some of it on a European vacation.
Q: When do you think the yield curve will invert?
A: In a year, and that is typically when you get a peaking of economic growth and the stock market.
Q: Is the Fed's faster-than-expected desire to raise rates good for equities, or will investors likely sell this news as quantitative tightening continues?
A: Short-term they will buy the market on rising rates, they always do at the early part of an interest rate rising cycle. They sell stocks when you get to the middle or the end of a rate rising cycle.
Q: Do you think large Tech stocks are expensive here?
A: No, I think the Large-Cap Tech stocks can potentially double here. It can take another year to year and a half to do it, and if they don't do it in this cycle they will certainly do it in the next one, after the next recession in the 2020s. So, long term you want to think FANG, FANG, FANG, TECH, TECH, TECH. You really shouldn't have anything else in the long term, except for maybe Biotech, where you can now get in at a multiyear low.
Q: Can I buy a chip company like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), or should I buy a cloud company, like Microsoft (MSFT)?
A: I would go with the Cloud company. The innovation there is incredible. Cloud is growing like the Internet itself was growing on its own in 1995, and with chip stocks like (AMD), you're going to get much higher volatility, but more gain. So, pick your poison. But I would go with the Cloud plays.
Q: Can we watch the recorded version of this webinar later?
A: Yes, we post the webinar on our website a couple hours later, if you're a paid subscriber.
Q: What about the CRISPR stocks?
A: They are a screaming buy right now, buy Editas Medicine (EDIT) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) on the dip. The paper that triggered the sell-off saying that CRISPR causes cancer is complete BS.
Q: Only 30 million in Bitcoin was stolen in South Korea so will that still have an impact?
A: Yes, but there have been countless other hacks this year and the total loss is well over $500 million. In addition, Bitcoin is now down 70% from its December top so not all is well in cryptocurrency land.
Q: Should we expect any Trade Alerts before August 8?
A: Yes, some of my best trades have been done while only vacation. I once sold short the Euro (FXE) from the back of a camel in Morocco. Another time, I bought the S&P 500 (SPY) while hanging from a cliff face on the Matterhorn. Both of those made good money.
Q: Will the S&P 500 reach new highs before the end of the year?
A: Yes, once you get the election out of the way, that removes a huge amount of uncertainty from the market. If we could end our trade war before then, I think you're looking at another 10-15% in gains from this level by the end of the year. That takes you to an (SPX) of 3,100 by the end of 2018, which was my January 1 prediction.
Q: What does all the heavy mergers and acquisition activity mean for the market?
A: It means fewer stocks are left to trade. Stock shortages leads to higher prices, always, so it is a big market positive this year
Good Luck and Good Trading.
John Thomas
CEO and Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 18, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DON'T WORRY ABOUT THE BATS),
(BIDU), (BABA), (AMZN), (AAPL), (MGI), (NVDA), (AMD), (GOOGL), (FB)
The Chinese BATs (Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent) are China's response to the American FANG group.
It's one of few sectors outperforming the vigorous American tech sector, and valuations have soared in the past year.
Former English teacher Jack Ma founded the Amazon (AMZN) of China named Alibaba in April 1999, which has grown to become one of the biggest websites on the Internet.
This company even has a massive cloud division that acts in the same way as Amazon Web Services (AWS).
Alibaba also has Alipay on its roster, the fintech and digital payments subsidiary of Alibaba.
Baidu, led by Robin Li, is the de-facto Google search of China and is entirely tailored for the Chinese market without English language support.
Tencent, created by Ma Huateng, has an assortment of businesses from social media, instant messaging, online gaming, and digital payments.
Tencent's WeChat platform is the lynchpin acting as the gateway to the robust Tencent eco-system.
The BATs have heavily invested in autonomous vehicle technology set to roll out in the coming years.
These companies are some of the biggest venture capitalists in the world throwing around capital like Masayoshi Son's SoftBank.
Alibaba has seen its share price rocket from $135 in June 2017 to $206.
Baidu has also seen huge gyrations in its share price elevating from $174 in June 2017 to $270.
Tencent, public on the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, has gone from $273 HKD (Hong Kong dollars) to $412 HKD.
And this is all just the beginning!
An economy growing a stable 6.5% per year with companies able to scale to a mind-boggling 1.3 billion people is something of which to take notice.
China hopes to wean itself from its industrial heritage betting the ranch on a rapidly expanding tech sector.
Does this put China on a collision course steamrolling toward the American FANGs?
Highly possible but not yet.
Even though the BATs modus operandi has been to follow in the footsteps of the FANG's business model, they do not directly compete.
Ant Financial, the fintech arm of Alibaba, was blocked from purchasing MoneyGram International (MGI), effectively, closing any doors leading to the lucrative American digital payments industry.
This also meant curtains for WeChat, the multi-functional app that half of the Chinese use as a digital wallet, in the digital payments space.
The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has made it crystal clear that BAT's capital will be scrutinized more than ever before because of China's open policy of transferring Western technology expertise to the mainland for the purpose of leading the world in technology.
China cannot have its cake and eat it.
The first stumbling block is that the American market does not suit the BAT's FANG business model with Chinese characteristics.
For example, the only other market Baidu search operates in is Brazil.
It has leveraged itself to the Chinese consumer whose purchasing power has spiked from its burgeoning middle class.
Another headwind is the lack of innovation caused by a rigid education system punishing freedom of thought in favor of rote memorization.
Innovation is American tech's bread and butter and investors pay up for this ingenuity that cannot be found elsewhere in the world.
This is also the reason why the BATs need to buy American technology and not the other way around.
Original concepts such as Uber and Airbnb were made in America first and Didi Chuxing and Tujia are rip-offs of these American companies.
The list is endless.
The BATs understand they cannot go head to head with American talent, but that does not mean they won't win out in the end.
To make matters worse, global tech talents do not want to work in China if they are reliant on America to develop something and copy it.
Why not just go work in Silicon Valley for a higher salary?
This was highlighted when the only tech talent to cross over to the other side quit in a blaze of glory.
Hugo Barra was poached from Alphabet in 2013, where he worked as vice present for the Android mobile operating system.
He was installed as the vice president of international development for smartphone maker Xiaomi, the Apple (AAPL) of China.
Barra suddenly threw in the towel at Xiaomi in 2017, offering a harsh critique stating, "What I've realized is that the last few years of living in such a singular environment have taken a huge toll on my life and started affecting my health."
Not exactly the stamp of approval the Mandarins were looking for.
In turn, China has focused its effort on recruiting Chinese-Americans who understand the working environment better and have roots or even family on the mainland.
The dire tech talent shortage is worse in China than Silicon Valley because Chinese tech companies have zero access to non-Chinese talent.
Even with a reverse in immigration policies by the administration, America continues to be the holy grail of tech jobs.
That is why you see hoards of Chinese, Indians, Russians, and every other country's best and brightest waiting in line to make the move.
Taiwanese American CEOs lead some of Silicon Valley's best companies such as the CEO for Nvidia (NVDA), Jensen Huang, and the CEO of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Dr. Lisa Su.
Only 1% of Baidu's revenues is extracted from American soil underscoring the BAT's China-first business model. Tencent isn't much better at 5%, and Alibaba heads the list at 11%.
Compare these statistics with Alphabet (GOOGL) making 53% and Facebook (FB) earning 56% of revenue from international sales.
Amazon is still very much an American business but 32% of revenue comes from international sales.
The bulk of this revenue is mainly from Europe where American large-cap tech companies are staunch mainstays.
China has focused on building out its business in Southeast Asia instead.
Those governments are cozy with Beijing and are willing to relinquish some sovereign influence to develop its poor digital infrastructure.
The nail in the coffin for potential BAT companies doing business in America is the total lack of data protection in China.
If you think what Facebook is doing doesn't make you sleep at night, the BATs are running riot with personal data in China.
Expect multiple attempts of hackers breaking into your email while your phone number is constantly harassed by spam messages and robo-calls galore.
This is a normal day in the life of a Chinese national and they are used to it.
China understands they are not ready to eclipse the juggernaut that is Silicon Valley.
The BATs are biding their time organically growing by investing into American tech firms helping their overall products and services.
The past five years have seen a gorge of American investment amounting to 95 deals totaling $27.6 billion.
However, this smash-and-grab investment party is effectively over because CFIUS has clamped down on exporting local technology.
Consequently, the BATs will continue to focus on what they know best - the Chinese market.
Southeast Asia is also ripe to become the next stomping ground for the BATs. Expect them to dominate in this region for years to come.
The runway is long in domestic China. The 6.5% annual growth is entirely biased toward these three companies to prolong their hearty growth trajectories.
The communist party even has a seat on the board at each of these companies highlighting another area of conflict if these companies dive head into the American market.
Let's just say corporate governance in China is a shell of what it is in America.
One day there could be an all-out battle for tech supremacy, but these Chinese companies would need some assurances they would likely come out on top.
That is hardly the case yet and they make way too much money by copying Silicon Valley.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote of the Day
"The leader of the market today may not necessarily be the leader tomorrow," - said Tencent founder and CEO Ma Huateng.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 14, 2018
Fiat Lux
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