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Tag Archive for: (FOMO)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Another Sovereign Country Considers Bitcoin

Bitcoin Letter

Another sovereign country once appeared ready to consider Bitcoin, and for a moment, it looked like the experiment launched in Central America might quickly spread north. By 2026, however, the reality is more restrained. Bitcoin adoption has entered a slower, more selective phase across Latin America, shaped less by ideological enthusiasm and more by political limits, regulatory pressure, and hard economic trade-offs.

The early narrative was built on frustration with local currencies. Across parts of the region, long histories of inflation and devaluation created fertile ground for alternative monetary ideas. But broad claims of collapse have not held evenly. Mexico’s peso, for example, did not spiral into oblivion. After years of volatility, it proved comparatively resilient through the mid-2020s, supported by strong remittance inflows, nearshoring investment, and orthodox central bank policy. For most households, holding pesos in a bank did not become the nightmare scenario once implied.

That context matters when revisiting political calls to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. Indira Kempis, a senator from Nuevo León, did publicly advocate for Bitcoin adoption and framed it as a tool for financial inclusion. She emphasized Bitcoin’s potential to serve the unbanked and said she was consulting with people knowledgeable about the asset. Those statements were real, but the effort never translated into national policy. Mexico did not move toward making Bitcoin legal tender, and no broad legislative coalition formed around the idea.

The argument that Bitcoin could bank the unbanked continues to resonate rhetorically. Millions of Mexicans remain outside the formal financial system, and digital wallets can lower barriers to entry. But by 2026, policymakers largely treat crypto as a complementary payment rail rather than a replacement for sovereign currency. Bitcoin is tolerated, regulated, and sometimes encouraged for innovation, but not elevated to the status of national money.

The experience of El Salvador has also tempered regional enthusiasm. President Nayib Bukele made history by adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, but the long-term outcome was more nuanced than early boosters expected. By 2024, El Salvador amended its Bitcoin law as part of negotiations with international lenders, removing mandatory acceptance and scaling back the legal tender framework. Bitcoin remained on the balance sheet and in official rhetoric, but its role shifted from revolutionary currency to an optional instrument.

That recalibration mattered across the region. Rather than triggering a domino effect, El Salvador’s path became a cautionary reference point. Legislators elsewhere continued to study crypto, but few were willing to stake monetary sovereignty on it.

Where Bitcoin has made steadier inroads is in payments and remittances. Crypto rails proved useful for cross-border transfers, particularly in corridors with high fees and slow settlement. Coinbase Global expanded services in Mexico by enabling recipients to cash out crypto into pesos at tens of thousands of retail locations. This targeted the remittance market directly, offering speed and cost advantages without requiring users to abandon fiat entirely.

That approach was more durable than legal-tender experiments. It allowed crypto to compete with incumbents like Western Union on efficiency rather than ideology. Over time, crypto remittances became another option in a crowded payments landscape rather than a wholesale disruption of national currencies.

Prominent business figures also continued to promote Bitcoin. Ricardo Salinas Pliego, founder and chairman of Grupo Salinas, remained one of Bitcoin’s most vocal advocates in Mexico, urging long-term holding and criticizing fiat debasement. His support kept Bitcoin in the public conversation, but it did not translate into official monetary reform.

By 2026, the tone around Bitcoin in Latin America is more pragmatic. Grand predictions of immediate legal tender adoption have faded. Volatility remains, and while Bitcoin has matured relative to its early years, governments are reluctant to tie fiscal stability to an asset they do not control. The idea that entire regions would balance their budgets through Bitcoin has not materialized.

Instead, Bitcoin occupies a narrower but more realistic role: a speculative asset, a hedge for some individuals, and a payment and remittance tool where it offers clear advantages. Sovereign adoption, where it exists at all, is partial and reversible. The era of sweeping declarations has given way to incremental integration, and that slower path now defines Bitcoin’s relationship with Latin American states.

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/bitcoin-e1646340136884.png 300 450 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2026-02-06 13:00:272026-02-06 11:26:52Another Sovereign Country Considers Bitcoin
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

May 26, 2023

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 26, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(RIDE THE ELEVATOR UP WITH GENERATIVE AI)
(NVIDA), (FOMO), (APPL), (MSFT), (META), (GOOGL), (AMZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-26 14:04:112023-05-26 16:43:37May 26, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Ride the Elevator Up With Generative AI

Tech Letter

Part of these artificial intelligence executives going on record to sound out the problems with AI is mostly to protect themselves if this weird digital experiment goes disastrously wrong.

They have mostly said that AI going rogue is a real possibility and could end mankind.

Obviously, we hope that doesn’t happen.

Much of the tech market gains this year have been because of the technology surrounding AI.

Strip that out and the gains will look paltry.

A good example is Nvidia (NVDA) offering legendary guidance to the demand of their chips because of the need to install them in AI-based technology.

The AI narrative truly has legs – it will be the theme that defines 2023 in technology stocks.

The Big 7 tech stocks will possess explosive qualities to their stock precisely because of this thesis.

Then there is the fear of missing out (FOMO).

Every financial advisor is pitching AI as an investment of a lifetime – something that cannot be missed by their clients.

Therefore, I do expect meteoric legs up in shares of Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Amazon, Facebook, and Google in 2023.

These 7 stocks dominate the tech market and the generative AI gains will mostly manifest themselves in these 7 tech firms.

Yet there are dangerous concerns that AI could also destroy these companies and the internet which we interface with, because the changes could erode the trust in platforms by populating fake photos like deep fakes.

In Washington speech, Brad Smith calls for steps to ensure people know when a photo or video is generated by AI.

Brad Smith, the president of Microsoft, has said that his biggest concern around artificial intelligence was deep fakes, realistic-looking but false content.

Smith called for steps to ensure that people know when a photo or video is real and when it is generated by AI, potentially for harmful purposes.

For weeks, lawmakers in Washington have struggled with what laws to pass to control AI even as companies large and small have raced to bring increasingly versatile AI to market.

Last week, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, the startup behind ChatGPT, told a Senate panel in his first appearance before Congress that the use of AI interferes with election integrity is a “significant area of concern,” adding that it needs regulation.

Lawmakers need to ensure that safety brakes be put on AI used to control the electric grid, water supply and other critical infrastructure so that humans remain in control.

It’s hard to know what is fake and real these days. Fake photos of politicians getting attacked or fake videos of tigers roaming around freely in Times Square New York look weirdly authentic.

AI is getting so good that nobody knows what is real anymore.

I’m sure some of you saw the recent Tom Cruise deep fake where the fake Tom Cruise is telling the audience that he does a lot of “industrial clean up” along with his own stunts. Honestly, I could not tell it was fake, and most people wouldn’t. It caught me – hook, line, and sinker.

As it stands, ride this generative AI to riches in the short-term, but be aware that this technology could blow up the internet or make the internet unusable because of security and trust reasons.

 

ai

DEEPFAKES LOOK AND SOUND TOTALLY REAL IN 2023

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-05-26 14:02:022023-05-29 22:56:33Ride the Elevator Up With Generative AI
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

September 29, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
September 29, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHERE DOES THE UTILITY COME FROM?)
(FOMO), (BTC)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-29 15:04:492022-09-29 17:13:58September 29, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Where Does the Utility Come From

Bitcoin Letter

Crypto insider Mike Novogratz had a lot to say at the TOKEN2049 conference in Singapore and he struck an upbeat tone as crypto has been one of the worst performing assets in the past 365 days.

His words were mostly silver linings and an optimistic view of the future.

His argument for another spike up in bitcoin was mostly centered around how the next Bitcoin’s (BTC) bull run will have to be much different from historical cryptocurrency rallies in terms of story and utility.

Compared to previous bull runs, the next Bitcoin rally will be more focused on utility and less on the story.

An asset can only go so far based on fear-of-miss-out (FOMO) hype.

The issue now is the lack of buyers and it’s no surprise.

Every little bump up is a great exit point for holders to dump more coins.

In almost every crypto newsletter I’ve written, I chronicle how recent events make it less attractive for the incremental investors to bite at crypto.

The data backs me up as new buyers have quit this speculative industry and need something that pays an annuity-like premium.

According to Novogratz, the 2017 bull run was mostly about the story of people not trusting the government and wanting more privacy and decentralization.

The blockchain narrative hasn’t really budged at all as well as few institutions have integrated the technology into daily tasks.

I don’t see where the “utility” comes from.

Some speculative investors began buying digital real estate in the metaverse in hopes of accruing rental digital revenue is beggars’ belief.

I don’t see the utility there as well.

It’s all good to use buzz words like “scalable” and “user friendly” – yet I see no actual development.

I don’t believe crypto is the inherent successor to fiat either, and I do believe that at best, it could be a nice compliment and that’s if miracle after miracle happens from here on out.

If governments regulate the heck out of it, its value diminishes greatly.

Novogratz needs to stop pushing the “inevitable” theme like a real estate agent advising buyers to buy the most expensive mansion at the top of the market.

Hilariously enough, one of the knocks on crypto was the elevated volatility which has reversed the past few months.

Why?

The lack of volatility stems from the lack of new buyers and sellers. There are still owners who haven’t sold and are holding until infinity, so the price doesn’t get pushed down further, but investors are so turned off by the charlatans and dangers in the industry that they rather put their money in something more real.

Crypto executives need to stop pushing the crypto to $1 million theme as every headwind imaginable is crushing the price of crypto.

Even worse, crypto executives are also facing billions of dollars in lawsuits and I believe it is more responsible to talk about the current existential crisis that Bitcoin faces.

If Bitcoin goes to zero, then crypto is finished so it’ll be interesting to see what the last big holders do with their coin.

Do they sell out the rest and crash the market? Or wait for the next bull run?

My bet is that the price of Bitcoin stays in a range for the next 15 months.

 

CRYPTO SALESMAN WANTS TO PUMP UP THE COIN

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-09-29 15:02:552022-09-29 17:14:18Where Does the Utility Come From
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

March 3, 2022

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
March 3, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ANOTHER SOVEREIGN COUNTRY CONSIDERS BITCOIN)
(BTC), (FOMO), ($USDMXN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-03-03 12:04:252022-03-03 16:25:01March 3, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 24, 2021

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 24, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE LARGEST RISK TO TECH GROWTH SHARES)
(PYPL), (SQ), (GOOGL), (BTC), (TSLA), (FOMO)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-24 11:05:372021-02-24 11:34:14February 24, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Largest Risk to Tech Growth Shares

Tech Letter

The U.S. Central Bank has chosen to be as accommodative as possible in order to put a floor under the stock market with near-zero interest rates and large-scale asset purchases.

This will have an inordinate effect on tech stocks moving forward because the rhetoric from the Fed is as close as one can get to admitting that tech stocks should be bought in droves.

Fed policy won’t kill the rally and talk up higher interest rates until “substantial further progress (to unemployment numbers) has been made,” and “is likely to take some time” to achieve said Fed Governor Jerome Powell.

Yes, it’s possible to attribute some of the bullishness to the “reopening” trade and the massive migration to digital, but the loose monetary policy is overwhelmingly the predominant catalyst to higher tech shares.

As Powell spoke, the Nasdaq did a wicked U-turn in real-time after being in the red almost 4% and sprinted higher to finish up the trading day only ½ of a percent down on the day.

What does this mean for the broader tech market and Nasdaq index?

We started seeing all sorts of wonky moves like Tesla (TSLA) making a $1.5 billion bitcoin (BTC) investment earlier this month.

Fintech player Square (SQ) bought Bitcoin on the dip pouring $170 million into it.

Yes, this isn’t a joke.

Corporations are becoming the dip buyers in bitcoin which would have never been fathomable a year ago from today.

The risk-taking has literally gone into hyper-acceleration in the tech world and is transforming into a fantasy world of corporations swimming knee-deep in capital trying to outdo one another with fresh bitcoin orders of millions upon billions.

That’s where we are at right now in the tech markets.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has also gotten into the bitcoin story condemning the digital gold by saying that bitcoin is an “extremely inefficient” way to conduct monetary transactions.

But because of the extreme low-rate nature of debt, this just gives investors another entry point into the digital gold.

This sets the stage for a correction in tech stocks and the likely reason for it would possibly be higher interest rates or even negative lockdown news or some combination of both.

On the technical side of things, a result of this magnitude would be set off by first, cascading sell orders at one time, eerily similar to what got us the March 2020 low.

This could happen in either biotechnology stocks or Tesla shares and cause performance to deteriorate which could trigger net outflow and that would trigger a violent feedback loop.

Catherine D. Wood is the Founder, CEO, and CIO of ARK Invest and has been hyping up the super-growth tech assets like she was betting her life on it.

The only way she can get away with this chutzpah is in an anemic rate environment that pushes investors to search for yield.

Her reaction to yesterday’s market action wasn’t to buy bitcoin on the dip but go into a safer asset that actually produces something, and she bought another big chunk of Tesla.

Risk-taking and leverage in tech shares have gone up the wazoo which means that any incremental rising of rates is harder for the overall tech market to absorb.

Bitcoin is now being viewed as just one risk point higher on the risk curve than Tesla and that is a dangerous concept.

Technology often promises investors that they are paying for future cash flows of tomorrow and that story doesn’t work if the margins are turning against the management.

The low rates offer the impetus for characters like Wood to boast that she was surprised by how fast companies are adopting bitcoin and that her “confidence in Tesla has grown.”

It is just a sign of the times and even more money has been injected into zombie companies that have no hope of improving margins ala the retail sector.

Awash in liquidity has the ultimate effect of making tech growth stocks even more attractive than the rest of the crowd which is why we have been seeing sharp upward moves in second derivative plays to bitcoin like PayPal (PYPL), Square while the FANGs, aside from Google (GOOGL), have treaded sideways.

Markets tend to overshoot on the upside and downside and as the sell-off was met with shares that came roaring back in a speculative frenzy, we are now in a situation with many markets, even the foreign ones, hitting fresh records, even as the nations they were based in suffered their sharpest recessions since at least the Great Depression.

The overshooting tends to come from the fear of missing out (FOMO) amongst other reasons.

Ultimately, as the corporate list of characters and billionaire hedge fund community load up on tech growth stocks, just a small movement to higher yield could cause a Jenga-like toppling of their strategy and profits.

This could snowball into a massive unwind of positions to meet margin calls after margin calls.

If we can avoid this indiscriminate fire sale, then, like Bank of America recently just said, it’s hard to make a different analysis aside from being overly bullish as the treasury, Fed, and macroeconomic factors have made a major sell-off less likely.

I am bullish technology and would advise readers to go back into growth names as volatility subsides, but keep an eye out for rates creeping higher because, at the end of the day, it’s clearly the biggest risk to the tech sector.  

 

tech

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/backup-in-yields.png 624 934 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-02-24 11:02:432021-03-02 16:50:44The Largest Risk to Tech Growth Shares

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