Global Market Comments
June 12, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHEN THE BILL COMES DUE)
(SPY), (TLT), (GD), (USO), (HTZ), (JCP)
Global Market Comments
June 12, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHEN THE BILL COMES DUE)
(SPY), (TLT), (GD), (USO), (HTZ), (JCP)
This was a top you could see coming a mile off. Now, the correction for the greatest rally in stock market history has begun. Will it be the greatest correction in history?
It could be.
It was the awful news that the Coronavirus is starting to run away again that started the panic. New cases in Texas and Arizona are growing so fast that the local hospital systems are getting overwhelmed once again. The Armageddon scenario is back on the table once again.
You knew we were in trouble when the stocks of bankrupt companies, like Hertz (HTZ) and JC Penny (JCP) started doubling in a day, even though they have no equity value whatsoever. They were bid up simply because they had low single-digit prices, as bankrupt companies always do.
They were bid up by greater fools and the market just ran out of them.
It wasn’t just equities that got slammed. Oil (USO) suffered a horrific day, down 8.2%. because of burgeoning inventories leftover from a dead-in-the water economy. Bonds rocketed three points and are up an eye-popping 11 points from last week. Even gold (GLD) failed to move, held back by widespread margin calls.
It seems we have returned to the terrors of February-March, the down 2,000 points a day kind. There was barely a rally all day. It basically went straight down. How much more is there to go? Let’s look at the obvious targets in the S&P 500 (SPY) and the distance from the Monday top.
$299 – Down 7.7% from the top – the 200-day moving average and top of the April - May double top
$288.74 – Down 10.9% - The 50-day moving average
$272 – Down 15% - bottom of the April - May double bottom
$262 – Dow 19.4% - Top of the initial rally off the March 23 bottom and the level where a new bear market is declared. Two bear markets in two quarters?
$219 – Down 32.6% - the March 23 low gets retested.
There is quite a lot to chew on here. In the end, it will depend on how much the first Corona wave ramps up after a far too early re-opening. Even if there are no further shutdowns of the economy, a world where consumers are too afraid to leave their homes doesn’t generate a lot of growth or earnings.
When the president says things are great, but you see 5% of normal traffic in the local shopping mall, you want to run a mile.
Forget about the second wave, we haven’t even gotten out of the first wave yet. Corona deaths topped 114,000 today. We could hit 250,000 by August, not a great mall traffic generator.
If the selloff continues, and it probably will until the Q2 earnings are published starting in mid-July, then this is the dip you want to buy. For if the lows hold, we will be at the beginning of a 400% move in the main indexes over the next decade.
To get the depth of the argument why this will happen, please read about the coming Roaring Twenties and the next American Golden Age by clicking here.
Here is what you want to do on this move down:
*Stocks - buy big dips
*Bonds – sell rallies aggressively
*Commodities - buy dips
*Currencies - sell US dollar rallies
*Precious Metals – buy dips
*Energy – stand aside
*Volatility - sell short over $50
*Real Estate – buy dips
And buy LEAPS (Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities), lots of LEAPS. This is where traders have been picking up 500%-1,000% returns this year.
Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
OKLearn moreWe may request cookies to be set on your device. We use cookies to let us know when you visit our websites, how you interact with us, to enrich your user experience, and to customize your relationship with our website.
Click on the different category headings to find out more. You can also change some of your preferences. Note that blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience on our websites and the services we are able to offer.
These cookies are strictly necessary to provide you with services available through our website and to use some of its features.
Because these cookies are strictly necessary to deliver the website, refuseing them will have impact how our site functions. You always can block or delete cookies by changing your browser settings and force blocking all cookies on this website. But this will always prompt you to accept/refuse cookies when revisiting our site.
We fully respect if you want to refuse cookies but to avoid asking you again and again kindly allow us to store a cookie for that. You are free to opt out any time or opt in for other cookies to get a better experience. If you refuse cookies we will remove all set cookies in our domain.
We provide you with a list of stored cookies on your computer in our domain so you can check what we stored. Due to security reasons we are not able to show or modify cookies from other domains. You can check these in your browser security settings.
These cookies collect information that is used either in aggregate form to help us understand how our website is being used or how effective our marketing campaigns are, or to help us customize our website and application for you in order to enhance your experience.
If you do not want that we track your visist to our site you can disable tracking in your browser here:
We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.
Google Webfont Settings:
Google Map Settings:
Vimeo and Youtube video embeds: