Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 3, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ROLLING THE DICE ON BIOTECH)
(RHHBY), (VNDA), (ZVRA), (HALO), (BMY), (GILD)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 3, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ROLLING THE DICE ON BIOTECH)
(RHHBY), (VNDA), (ZVRA), (HALO), (BMY), (GILD)
Remember when you'd jump into a hot tub and the water was just right? That's what the biotech sector feels like right now - it's warming up and ready for a splash.
After years of treading water, biotech stocks are showing signs of life. High interest rates and cash crunches have kept this sector on the sidelines, but the game is changing.
September 2024 is shaping up to be a blockbuster month for the sector, with FDA decisions that could send stocks soaring - or sinking.
First up, Roche Holding AG (RHHBY) is waiting on pins and needles for the FDA's verdict on Ocrevus SC. This isn't just another drug - it's a new way to deliver their multiple sclerosis cash cow.
If the FDA gives the green light on September 13, Roche could be looking at a bigger slice of the MS pie. Why? Because this new version doesn't need fancy IV setups, opening doors to treatment centers that were previously off-limits.
But Roche isn't the only one with butterflies in its stomach.
Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) is hoping to make history on September 18 with Tradipitant. This drug aims to tackle gastroparesis, a condition that's been stuck in treatment limbo for four decades. If Tradipitant gets the nod, Vanda could find itself as the big fish in a very lucrative pond.
And let's not forget about the underdogs.
Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) is crossing its fingers for Arimoclomol. This potential game-changer targets Niemann-Pick disease type C, a rare brain disorder that's been waiting for its medical knight in shining armor. September 21 could be that day.
These approvals aren't just good news for the companies involved. They're like a shot of adrenaline for the whole biotech sector. Investors love nothing more than seeing potential turn into profit.
But it's not all about solo acts in biotech. These days, it's all about partnerships.
Take Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO), for instance. They've buddied up with Roche to develop Ocrevus SC, bringing their ENHANZE technology to the party.
These kinds of collaborations are golddust for smaller biotech firms. They get access to resources and markets they could only dream of on their own, making them much more attractive to investors with deep pockets.
Speaking of deep pockets, big pharma companies are on the prowl, and several biotech firms are looking mighty tasty.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) just showed us how it's done by snatching up Karuna Therapeutics. Why? Two words: KarXT.
This antipsychotic drug is currently under FDA review for schizophrenia, and if approved, it could be another lucrative revenue stream. This kind of deal is a win-win. The big fish gets new toys for its pipeline, and the smaller fish gets a cushy new home.
Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room - interest rates.
Biotech companies and high interest rates go together like oil and water. These firms need cash like plants need water, and high rates make that cash harder to come by.
But here's the thing: the Federal Reserve is hinting at rate cuts.
For biotech, that's like Christmas coming early. Lower rates mean easier borrowing and easier borrowing means more research, more trials, and potentially more breakthroughs.
So if rates drop, don't be surprised to see biotech stocks shoot up faster than a rocket.
But it's not just about drugs in the pipeline. The biotech sector is also home to some serious innovation.
Take gene editing and CRISPR. This isn't your grandpa's genetics - it's like we've found the “track changes” function for DNA.
The market for this molecular magic is set to explode from $4 billion in 2024 to a whopping $17.8 billion by 2034. That's a 16.1% annual growth rate, for those of you keeping score at home.
With this technology, I’m not just talking about curing rare diseases here. I’m talking about the possibility of having your own home testing kits that could make your 23andMe results look like a fortune cookie.
And then there’s personalized medicine, which is turning healthcare into a bespoke tailor shop. Your DNA is becoming the blueprint for your treatments, and the market is following suit.
We're looking at a jump from $300 billion in 2021 to $869.5 billion by 2031. Why the boom? Well, sequencing your DNA used to cost more than a mansion.
Now it's cheaper than a decent night out in New York - from over $1 million in 2007 to about $600 today.
Stem cells and regenerative medicine are also getting investors hot under the collar. We're talking about potentially regrowing organs or giving Parkinson's the boot.
This market is set to grow at a spicy 9.74% annually from 2023 to 2030. Basically, it’s like we're entering the age of biological LEGO.
And let's not forget AI - the new brainiac in the lab. It's turning drug discovery into a high-speed chess game, with the AI market in healthcare expected to hit $95.65 billion by 2028.
With the innovations from this tech, scientists could have supercomputers as their lab partners – ones that never need coffee breaks and can crunch data faster than you can say "blockbuster drug."
Given all these possibilities, I think it’s a good time to talk about strategy. After all, investing in biotech isn't one-size-fits-all. It's more like a buffet - you pick what suits your taste and risk appetite.
For the adrenaline junkies who like to walk the tightrope without a net, there's the high-risk, growth investor approach. These brave souls get their kicks from cutting-edge stuff like gene editing and personalized medicine, often diving into early-stage biotech firms working on the next big breakthrough.
It's not for the faint of heart - these stocks can swing wilder than a monkey on espresso. But when they hit, oh boy, do they hit.
Just look at the personalized medicine market - it's set to explode from $300 billion in 2021 to a mind-boggling $869.5 billion by 2031. That's the kind of growth that could make your portfolio do backflips, assuming you can stomach the ride.
On the other side of the petri dish, we've got the value and low-risk investors. These are the steady hands who prefer their biotech stocks aged like fine wine and served with a side of sleep-easy. They're eyeing established companies with robust pipelines, diverse portfolios of approved drugs, and ongoing trials.
Think Roche with its Ocrevus SC, or old guards like Gilead Sciences (GILD) that have weathered more storms than a lighthouse.
These investors are the tortoises in the biotech race - slow and steady, but with a knack for crossing the finish line, often with a healthy dividend check in hand. They might not make headlines, but they're more likely to let you sleep soundly while your portfolio does the heavy lifting.
No matter which style you choose, one thing is undeniable: the biotech sector is like a sleeping giant, and it's starting to stir. The question is, will you heed the wake-up call or sleep through the alarm?
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 8, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHEN A+ PROFITS MEET C-VALUATION)
(AMGN), (ABBV), (GILD)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 18, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FROM GOLDEN EGG TO DUD, AND BACK AGAIN?)
(PFE), (LLY), (NVO), (VKTX), (GILD), (GPCR), (BNTX)
Remember when Pfizer (PFE) was strutting around Wall Street like a rooster in a henhouse, clucking about their $10 billion-a-year weight-loss wonder drug?
Well, that golden egg turned out to be a dud, with safety issues and side effects sending their experimental pills to the scrap heap faster than you can say "clinical trial failure."
Just when we thought Pfizer had thrown in the towel, they're back in the ring, swinging with a new once-daily version of danuglipron and pushing it towards bigger studies.
But let me tell you, the market's about as excited as I am for a vegan BBQ. Pfizer's shares nudged up a measly 0.4% upon announcement, after a brief 2.9% spike that fizzled faster than a diet soda.
Now, let's talk about the 800-pound gorillas in the room: Eli Lilly's (LLY) Zepbound and Novo Nordisk's (NVO) Wegovy.
These weekly jabs are the current darlings of the weight-loss world, but everyone and their grandmother are scrambling to get an oral GLP-1 to market. It's like watching a gold rush, except instead of pickaxes, they're wielding pipettes.
Lilly's got orfoglipron in Phase 3, with data coming faster than a day trader's heartbeat. Novo's already peddling Rybelsus, though it's about as effective as a chocolate teapot compared to the injectables.
And don't forget the up-and-comers: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) are all elbowing for a spot at the table.
Now, I know Pfizer's trying to convince us that their once-daily danuglipron is the bee's knees, with "encouraging pharmacokinetic data." But they're as tight-lipped about side effects as a politician at a press conference.
The research world’s not completely buying it, and frankly, neither am I. We might be waiting until the cows come home - or at least until 2026 - before we see if this pill's worth its weight in gold.
Meanwhile, Pfizer's stock has been sagging like a bulldog's jowls, down 1.5% this year and a gut-wrenching 21% over the past 12 months.
They're also staring down the barrel of a $17 billion revenue nosedive by 2030 as their patents fly the coop faster than pigeons at feeding time.
So, what has Pfizer been doing to deal with these? In recent months, the company has been on an acquisition bender that'd make a Vegas high-roller blush.
They snagged cancer specialist Seagen for a cool $43 billion, aiming to have eight blockbuster cancer drugs by 2030.
They're also playing footsie with BioNTech (BNTX) again, cooking up mRNA goodies like a COVID/flu combo vaccine. And let's not forget their partnership with Flagship Pioneering in the weight loss arena.
Over the past five years, Pfizer hasn’t been shy about spending money, securing over 20 new medicine approvals.
But Wall Street's been about as impressed as a cat with a new toy - they sniff at it and walk away. The stock took a 40% nosedive in 2023, partly thanks to their obesity program face-planting.
Still, Pfizer is not giving up so easily. In fact, they’ve worked to give their lineup a facelift. New approvals are rolling in faster than a greased pig at a county fair, and their pipeline's deeper than a philosopher on a bender.
Now, here's the million-dollar question: Is Pfizer a diamond in the rough or fool's gold? The market overreacted to their COVID-19 vaccine success, and now they might be overcorrecting in the other direction.
For those of you with nerves of steel and the patience of a Zen master, Pfizer could be a steal at these prices. If you don’t have the stomach for it, then I suggest you look elsewhere.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 16, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SMALL GIANTS RISING)
(GMAB), (OPHLY), (VRTX), (INCY), (BIIB), (AHKSY), (ALNY), (ARGX), (BGNE), (MRNA), (NBIX), (BNTX), (IPSEY), (CTLT), (NVO), (LLY), (JNJ), (GILD), (ABBV), (MRK), (SNY), (BMY), (GSK)
Remember when David took down Goliath? Well, history's repeating itself in the biotech arena, and this time, David's got deep pockets and a Ph.D.
Since April, I've been watching a trend on the so-called "next-generation" players in biotech and healthcare world. It reminds me of the massive changes I witnessed in Asian markets back in the '70s.
Over the past months, companies like Genmab (GMAB), Ono Pharmaceutical (OPHLY), Vertex (VRTX), Incyte (INCY), Biogen (BIIB), and Asahi Kasei (AHKSY) have been making waves that would impress even the most seasoned surfer. And these next-gen dealmakers aren't just dipping their toes in the M&A pool - they're doing cannonballs.
With cash reserves that would make Scrooge McDuck blush, these companies are overturning industry norms, already joining the prestigious $100 billion market cap club. At this celebration, the champagne flows freely.
So, what’s the play here?
With IPOs cooling down like day-old coffee, companies eyeing public debuts are now ripe targets for acquisition, more tempting than a juicy peach.
This fresh class of biotechs, unphased by the FTC's scrutiny that acts like kryptonite to pharma giants, are acting more like rocket fuel for these agile consolidators.
They slide through regulatory gaps faster than a greased pig at a county fair, grabbing six out of ten biopharma M&A deals in the second quarter alone. They’re not just taking a slice of the pie—they’re rewriting the recipe.
And if we're talking about firepower? These newcomers boast an average of $3.8 billion in pro forma adjusted cash, which isn't just walking-around money — that's "buy a small country" money.
But don't think for a second that this cash is just sitting pretty in their coffers. These upstarts are putting their money where their mouth is.
Take Incyte, for instance. They flexed their financial muscle with a $2 billion buyback in May 2024, sending a clear message to the market: "We're here to play, and we're playing to win."
And that's just the tip of the iceberg. The industry as a whole is lounging on a cool $1.5 trillion. That's enough liquidity to stretch the imagination — perhaps even to purchase a small planet. Mars, anyone? Elon might give us a discount.
But this financial might isn't just about buying power – it's about survival. As I said before, Big Pharma is teetering on a patent cliff that threatens to erode their revenue streams. To stay competitive, they're scrambling to replenish their pipelines, acquiring promising assets and gobbling up innovative technologies with the voracity of Pac-Man on steroids. And it's not just the usual suspects making moves.
This sense of urgency has created a fertile ground for an emerging cohort of aggressive dealmakers. Companies like Alnylam (ALNY), argenx (ARGX), BeiGene (BGNE), Moderna (MRNA), Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), BioNTech (BNTX), and Ipsen (IPSEY) are biting off more than the market expected them to chew, and they're coming to the table hungry.
And these companies aren't just nibbling around the edges. They're making bold moves, acquiring cutting-edge biotech firms with promising pipelines. We're talking oncology, epilepsy, kidney diseases, cardiovascular plays – it's like someone turned a medical textbook into a shopping catalog.
In fact, even the big boys are flexing their muscles.
Novo Holdings (NVO) dropped a jaw-dropping $16.5 billion on Catalent (CTLT). That's not even for a drug - it's for manufacturing. Talk about betting on the picks and shovels in this biotech gold rush.
Eli Lilly (LLY) just plunked down $3.2 billion on Morphic Therapeutic (MORF), betting big on inflammation, immunity, and oncology.
Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) been on a shopping spree, too, snagging Numab's Yellow Jersey for $1.25 billion and Proteologix for $850 million. Both plays in inflammation and immunity - clearly, they've found their sweet spot.
Biogen's not twiddling its thumbs either, striking a deal with HI-Bio worth up to $1.8 billion.
Not to be outdone, Gilead (GILD) shook hands with CymaBay Therapeutics to the tune of $4.3 billion. Even AbbVie (ABBV), playing it cooler, still dropped a cool $250 million on Celsius.
Meanwhile, Merck's (MRK) set its sights on EyeBio for up to $3 billion, focusing on ophthalmology.
Sanofi (SNY), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), GSK (GSK) - they're all in, placing their chips on everything from rare diseases to generics to asthma. Clearly, the Big Pharma giants are also trying to keep up with this shift.
As the biotech field evolves, watching these underdogs will be like watching history in the making — where today's Davids become tomorrow's Goliaths. I suggest you keep a close eye on the names above. Adding them to your portfolio would mean you’re not just watching the giants rise — you’ll be a part of the story.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 2, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TWO-STEPPING TO A CANCER CURE)
(GILD), (AZN), (RHHBY), (PFE), (MRK)
I was at a biotech conference in San Francisco, nursing a cup of black coffee and trying not to fall asleep during yet another startup pitch.
Suddenly, I overhear a conversation that makes me perk up faster than if someone had mentioned a 50% off sale on vintage aircraft parts.
"Did you hear about TwoStep Therapeutics?" someone whispered. "They've got Bertozzi, Cochran, and Levy on board."
Now, I've been following the biotech scene longer than I've been flying planes, and those names made my ears perk up faster than an air traffic controller during a thunderstorm. I nearly choked on my coffee trying to catch every word.
As it turns out, TwoStep Therapeutics isn't just another flash-in-the-pan biotech startup. These folks are diving headfirst into the shark-infested waters of immunotherapy and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs).
And let me tell you, they're not packing pool noodles – they're armed to the teeth with intellectual firepower.
Now, I've seen more biotech startups than there are hedge funds in Connecticut, but this one's got my attention. Why? They're not here to do the same old cancer-fighting waltz.
Instead, they're attempting to solve a Rubik's Cube of cancer treatment – and they might just have the brainpower to do it.
Let's talk about that brainpower for a moment. TwoStep's advisory board reads like a "Who's Who" of biotech brilliance.
We're talking Nobel laureate Carolyn Bertozzi, Stanford's Jennifer Cochran, and Ronald Levy – the wizard behind rituximab. It's as if they raided the faculty lounge at Stanford and offered stock options instead of tenure.
That means TwoStep's not just another me-too biotech. They're cooking up a platform of peptide conjugates that can bind to five different tumor-associated integrins.
In layman's terms? They're building a cancer-fighting multi-tool that makes current treatments look like plastic sporks.
CEO Caitlyn Miller isn't just another lab coat with a PowerPoint presentation either. She's got skin in the game – or rather, genes.
Her stepfather battled oral cancer for 14 years before passing away. I don’t need to tell you, but that's the kind of motivation you just can't buy.
Now, before you start salivating over potential returns faster than Pavlov's dogs at dinnertime, remember: This is early-stage biotech.
We're talking more risk than a game of Russian roulette with five bullets. But for those of you with iron stomachs and a penchant for moonshots, TwoStep might be worth a spot on your watchlist.
Their $6.5 million seed round is chump change in biotech land, but it's not about the size of the boat, it's the motion of the ocean. And with backers like NFX and Alexandria Venture Investments, they've got some serious propulsion.
TwoStep isn't going after the low-hanging fruit either. They're not interested in well-trodden paths like bladder or breast cancer.
No sir, they're setting their sights on tough customers like head and neck and colon cancer. It's a gutsy move, but in biotech, sometimes you've got to swing for the fences.
It's worth noting, though, that TwoStep isn't alone in this high-stakes game.
Big pharma's been falling over themselves to get a piece of this action. Gilead Sciences (GILD) shelled out big bucks for Immunomedics to get their hands on Trodelvy.
AstraZeneca (AZN) has been playing in this sandbox for a while with Enhertu. Even the Swiss giant Roche (RHHBY) is in on the game, not to mention Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK).
So, there you have it. TwoStep Therapeutics: the new enfant terrible of the biotech world, armed with more brainpower than a MENSA convention and ambitions that could make Elon Musk blush.
Will they revolutionize cancer treatment or become another cautionary tale in biotech textbooks?
The jury's still out, but one thing's for sure – watching this unfold will be more entertaining than a CNBC stock ticker on stimulus check day.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
March 7, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(RALLY CAPS ON)
(VKTX), (LLY), (NVO), (AKRO), (GILD), (BMY), (AMGN), (PFE)
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