Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 26, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE)
(GILD), (BMY), (GILD), (MRK)
Posts
Gilead Sciences (GILD) has been primarily ignored by investors who have focused more on other biotechnology and healthcare companies, particularly those that made a significant impact in the fight against COVID-19.
Reviewing the recent performance of its share price, Gilead can be best described as the ugly duckling among the Big Pharma companies in the US.
The lack of significant catalysts in the past months makes Gilead incomparable to the big movers with diversified portfolios in the space, such as Bristol Myers Squib (BMY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and even Merck (MRK).
Nonetheless, I consider Gilead one of the most undervalued biopharmaceutical names in the sector.
Founded in 1987, Gilead started as a biopharma geared toward researching and developing drugs for severe and rare diseases.
Fast forward to today, it now has roughly $80.57 billion in market capitalization.
It is also widely considered the undisputed market leader for HIV treatment, with much of its revenue coming from this segment.
In its 2021 annual report, $16.3 billion of Gilead’s $27.3 billion entire revenue came from its HIV program. That’s approximately 59.7% of the total.
Globally, the market for HIV treatments reached a total of $30.46 billion in 2021.
This translates Gilead’s market share to more than 53% worldwide, with the company producing 6 of the top 10 leading products targeting the disease.
The global HIV market is expected to reflect long-term growth and is projected to reach $45.5 billion by 2028.
If Gilead sustains its market share of over 50%, it can comfortably rake in $23 billion in annual revenue from this segment alone.
While being a leader in a sustainable and stable market is definitely a good thing, Gilead has been working on diversifying its portfolio to avoid becoming too dependent on a single program.
Indicative of this plan was its efforts in 2020 when Gilead went through with 11 acquisitions and partnerships focused on oncology.
This move dramatically boosted its pipeline by 50%, with 10 drugs already queued in Phase 3 clinical trials for cancer treatments.
More importantly, this expansion to the oncology segment has also generated revenue with promising growth figures.
In fact, Gilead’s decision to focus on T-Cell therapies appears to be paying off as the company developed groundbreaking treatments with impressive efficacy rates.
In April 2022, Yescarta received the FDA's green light as the first ever CAR-T cell therapy targeting large b-cell lymphoma (LBCL).
This is an exciting update, with Gilead disclosing that 40.5% of patients who received just a single infusion of Yescarta experienced no disease progression or need for any additional cancer treatment for two years.
This is a 2.5x improvement over the current standard of care rate at 16.3%.
Yescarta’s success also serves as a promising sign for another oncology treatment, Tecartus, which targets mantle cell lymphoma (MCL).
Yescarta and Tecartus are indubitably great lucrative revenue streams in sales growth and market sizes.
The MCL market is estimated to be roughly $7 billion this year, with an annual growth rate of 7% through 2027.
In 2021, Tecartus generated $276 million in sales, accounting for 2.5% of the market share.
While that may not be an eye-popping figure, the number is actually up by 68% year-over-year, which means Gilead is slowly absorbing more and more of the MCL market share.
Notably, MCL is also quite rare, affecting only 0.5 individuals out of 100,000.
Given the figures, though, Tecartus is still well on its way to contributing more than $1 billion in sales in the following years.
Meanwhile, Yescarta offers a more promising growth story since the LBCL segment is practically 14x the size of the MCL space, as it affects 7 out of 100,000 people annually.
In 2022, the LBCL market is projected to reach $4.3 billion, with a CAGR growth rate of 15% from this year to 2030. In 2021, Yescarta raked in $695 million in sales, showing off a 41% increase year-over-year and taking over roughly 16.2% of the market share.
Given the present growth rates of both Yescarta and the LBCL market, it’s feasible for Gilead to capture at least 50% of the market by 2027.
Another notable oncology asset is Trodelvy, a metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (MTNBC) and metastatic urothelial cancer (MUC) treatment.
Like Yescarta and Tecartus, this is another potential blockbuster.
For 2022, the MTNBC market is estimated to be approximately $606 million, while the MUC market is at $1.189 billion. The growth rates for these are 4.7% and 17.9%, respectively.
In 2021, Trodelvy captured 21% of the market share with $380 million in revenue.
However, what’s more promising is that this figure indicates an 84% increase year-over-year, which shows the massive potential of Trodelvy and its ability to become a billion-dollar revenue stream in under two years quickly.
Although Gilead still has a number of therapies and drugs in the works, Tecartus, Yescarta, and Trodelvy are the frontrunners in becoming blockbusters within the next five years.
This should give the company some time to develop more treatments to boost and diversify its portfolio.
The biopharma industry is highly competitive, but Gilead appears to be healthy and attractive.
While the company continues to focus on growing its HIV segment, what makes it promising these days is expanding its oncology program, particularly its revolutionary T-Cell therapies.
Admittedly, Gilead is not as exciting as the other names on the Big Pharma list. However, its slow and steady approach to dominating massive and lucrative markets looks like an excellent winning strategy.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 21, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE)
(MRNA), (PFE), (BNTX), (AZN), (ABBV), (MRK), (BMY), (TAK), (GILD),
(SNY), (ALNY), (NVS), (REGN), (IONS), (GSK), (BIIB), (CRSP)
As we gradually reach the pinnacle of biotechnology formation, a war is brewing in the life sciences world.
This can be one of the most exciting times for medical innovations for patients. Meanwhile, investors can be picky when picking where to put their money.
Even up-and-coming scientists can seize the opportunities to lay the groundwork for their own dream organizations.
At the same time, those aspiring to climb the corporate ladder have better chances at becoming CEO without the need to slog through the biopharma sector and scramble for whatever opening is available.
However, as more and more companies launch practically every day, claiming to offer groundbreaking and revolutionary breakthroughs, it’s critical to keep in mind that not all biotechs will succeed.
Actually, the number of biotech companies has been steadily rising since 2015.
In that year, 177 firms were formed, with biotech birth rates breaching the 200-per-annum mark by 2017 and 2018.
Seeing as many more have emerged even during the pandemic, it looks like the biotech world won’t be slowing down anytime soon.
Even funding hasn’t been deterred by economic downturns.
From 2015 to 2018, the total funding for biotech companies averaged between $68.6 million to roughly $90.2 million.
After a bustling, record-breaking 2020, the bar leading to 2021 was expectedly high.
Surprisingly, 2021 blew those figures out of the water as private investors opted to raise the bar even higher.
It’s the type of climb that’s truly hard to believe.
Biotechs raised over $22 billion in private funds in 2020 following a sluggish 2019. In 2021, that figure rose to $28.5 billion.
The top earner in these funding rounds last year was China’s Abogen, which took $1 billion in private investors’ money across two rounds.
Abogen is an mRNA-centered firm that’s currently working on a COVID-19 vaccine.
What makes its product different and possibly better than Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX), and AstraZeneca (AZN) is that it would be thermostable. That is, it could be used in areas without access to refrigeration.
Another big winner in 2021 is Massachusetts-based biotech ElevateBio, which aims to be a one-stop shop for cell and gene therapies.
The idea is to develop a technology that fuses its gene-editing platform, cell engineering structure, and manufacturing warehouse into one system to ease and accelerate the drug development process.
Although not entirely the same, this plan has similarities with the strategies of Big Pharma names like AbbVie (ABBV) and Merck (MRK).
Amid the growing number of biotechs, a key challenge is how to stand out among companies that target the same disease areas. This kind of competition could hamper innovation.
The clearest indicator of success would be receiving approval and being able to launch the products commercially.
Ultimately, the goals are to offer safe and effective treatments and provide value to their shareholders.
Unfortunately, the reality is only a handful of startups do make it all the way to the top.
The more feasible scenario is that bigger businesses would acquire these companies—and that seems to be the case these days.
Alongside the booming biotech formation rate are the increasingly aggressive biotech buyout deals.
We’ve seen this before.
It started in 2019, with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) buying Celgene, followed by AbbVie splurging on Allergan and Takeda (TAK) merging with Shire.
In 2020, AstraZeneca bought biotech superstar Alexion Pharmaceuticals while Gilead Sciences (GILD) snapped up Immunomedics.
Meanwhile, Sanofi (SNY) stacked its deck with the $3.2 billion acquisition of Translate Bio. As for Merck, this biopharma sneaked in a massive win with an $11.5 billion buyout of Acceleron.
For this year, several names have already been eyed by Big Pharmas.
There’s Alynlam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), an RNA-centered company, which seems to be the target of both Novartis (NVS) and Regeneron (REGN).
Another RNA-focused company, Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), appears to be a key target as well, with the likes of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Bayer, and even Biogen (BIIB) waiting for an opportunity to pounce.
After all, acquisitions form an integral lifeline of the biotech world. Huge businesses with the resources swoop up promising buyout candidates to bolster their own pipelines.
However, M&A isn’t the only option for biotechs. There’s also the path where they can seek companies with similar focus and consolidate to become larger and more competitive entities.
This has been the expected plan for CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) for a long time. Hence, it is no surprise if other biotechs with their own groundbreaking technologies decide to follow the same route.
Overall, the biotech industry is booming amid its recent struggles with the market.
The faster growth rate of companies can be attributed to more investors seeing the industry's potential and, of course, better access to technology and scientific advancement.
Moreover, the world has become more interested in the biotech world and what the industry can offer due to the pandemic.
COVID-19 has shone a light on this sector following the quick and effective results of the vaccines and treatments.
That is, people have finally caught on to the idea that there is an incredible opportunity in biotech.
While a correction is to be expected at some point, the critical thing to bear in mind is that great ideas will always generate funding no matter what.
Global Market Comments
April 11, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD,
or WATCH OUT FOR THE RECESSION WARNINGS)
(TLT), (TSLA), (FB), (CRSP), (TDOC), (GILD), (EDIT), (SQ), (INDU), (NVDA), (GS)
The drumbeat of a coming recession is getting louder and louder.
There is no doubt that the traditional signals of a slowing economy are already flashing yellow, if not bright red.
Rocketing interest rates are the most obvious one, with ten-year US Treasury bonds yield soaring from 1.33% to 2.71% in a mere four months. This is why investors pulled a gut-punching $87 billion out of bond funds in Q1.
If the Fed continues with a quarter point rise at every meeting for the rest of the year, we might escape this cycle without a recession. If the Fed ramps up to a half point rate at every meeting as was discussed last week a recession becomes a sure thing.
Imminent positive real yields for the first time in a decade also threaten to draw money out of stocks and into bonds.
I happen to be in the non-recessionary camp and the reason is very simple. Companies are making too much damn money. This is especially true for technology companies, which account for some 75% of the profits made in the US. If anything, their profits are accelerating, although at a lower rate than seen in 2021.
Certainly, the tech companies themselves aren’t buying the recession scenario. They are hiring and investing as if the economic boom will continue forever. Tesla alone has completed two new factories in the past month, in Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas, each capable of producing a half million vehicles a year. Tesla’s existing factories are all expanding capacity.
Sitting here in Silicon Valley, I can tell you that the job market is as hot as ever. Those who have jobs, like my own kids, are besieged with multiple job offers. It seems the standard time to keep a job these days is a year, after which one takes the next upgrade, promotion, and batch of stock options.
But the stock market seems hell-bent on discounting a recession anyway. You see this in the most economically sensitive sectors of the market, banks, semiconductors, and transport, which have just clocked a miserable month. If I am right (I’m always right), and there is no recession, these will be the sectors that lead the recovery.
Until the market makes up its mind, the disciplined among us will have to while away our time constructing lists of companies to buy for the rebound. That’s when the next leg of the bull market resumes.
We find out when this happens on Wednesday when the next batch of inflation data is released, which is likely to be diabolical.
Quantitative Tightening to Start as Soon as May, according to Fed Governor Brainard. That means our central bank will start selling its vast $9 trillion in bond holding in two months, a huge market negative. Bonds tanked. The Fed only quit quantitative easing in March.
Tesla Blows Away Q1 Sales, shipping 310,000 vehicles, far above expectations. This is despite supply chain problems, soaring interest rates, and the Ukraine War. Sky-high gasoline prices helped a lot, which is driving buyers into Tesla showrooms in drives. All other competitors are falling farther behind, unable to obtain parts and commodities which Tesla locked up long ago. This puts Tesla well on its way to its 1.5 million production goal for this year. Keep buying (TSLA) on dips. My long-term target is $10,000 a share.
The Metaverse May be Worth $13 Trillion by 2030, says Citibank. The same is so for Web 3.0, which includes virtual worlds, like gaming and applications in virtual reality. Citi’s broad vision of the metaverse includes smart manufacturing technology, virtual advertising, online events like concerts, as well as digital forms of money such as cryptocurrencies like I’ll be looking for the best plays.
Biotech May Be Staging a Comeback, after spending a year in hell, taking some shares down 80%-90%. Investors are also nibbling at the sector as a recession and bear market plays, as these companies keep growing regardless of the economic cycle. Buy (CRSP), Teledoc (TDOC), Gilead Sciences (GILD), ad Editas Medicine (EDIT) on dips.
US Bonds Just Suffered their Worst Quarter in a Half Century, with yields rocketing from 1.33% to 2.71%, and Mad Hedge was triple short most of the way down. Bear LEAPS holders, which are many of you, made fortunes. We could stall around current levels until the Fed delivered both barrels of a shot gun, two back-to-back half point rate rises from the Fed.
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates Top 5.00%, trashing the home builders. If you thought buying a home was tough, its worst now. So far, no impact on home prices.
US Dollar Hits New Two-Year High. It’s all about rising interest rates. Expect a stronger greenback to come before the turn. The coming QT will put a two-step turbocharger on the move.
German Battery Sales Soar By 67%, to residential buyers to cope with pending energy shortages. Germany already has 2.2 million solar installations out of a population of 83 million. It’s a very smart move as batteries powered by solar panels can remove you from the grid entirely, as I have amply proven with my own installation. It may be the permanent solution to over-dependence on Russian energy supplies.
Tesla Moving into Bitcoin Mining, in partnership with Blockstream and Block, formerly Square (SQ). Tesla will supply the electric power with its massive 3.8-megawatt solar array. That is the size of a large nuclear power plant. The mining facility is designed to be a proof of concept for 100% renewable energy bitcoin mining at scale. If Elon Musk likes Bitcoin maybe you should too.
The Bank of Japan Now Owns 7% of the Japanese Stocks Market. The central bank had to buy the shares after it had already bought all the bonds in the country to support the economy. So, what happens when the policy flips from QE to QT? How about unloading $371 billion worth of shares on the market. This would e a neat trick since so much of the country’s shares are locked up in corporate cross holdings. Methinks I’ll be steering clear of Japanese stocks for the foreseeable future.
My Ten-Year View
When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still historically cheap, oil peaking out soon, and technology hyper accelerating, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The America coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come!
My March month-to-date performance retreated to a modest 0.38%. My 2022 year-to-date performance ended at a chest-beating 27.23%. The Dow Average is down -4.20% so far in 2022. It is the greatest outperformance on an index since Mad Hedge Fund Trader started 14 years ago. My trailing one-year return maintains a sky-high 68.89%.
On the next capitulation selloff day, which might come with the April Q1 earnings reports, I’ll be adding long positions in technology, banks, and biotech. I am currently in a rare 100% cash position awaiting the next ideal entry point.
That brings my 13-year total return to 539.79%, some 2.10 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period. My average annualized return has ratcheted up to 44.36%, easily the highest in the industry.
We need to keep an eye on the number of US Coronavirus cases at 80.3 million, up only 100,000 in a week and deaths topping 985,000 and have only increased by 2,000 in the past week. You can find the data here. Growth of the pandemic has virtually stopped, with new cases down 98% in two months.
On Monday, April 11 at 8:00 AM EST, Consumer Inflation Expectations are released.
On Tuesday, April 12 at 8:30 AM, the Core Inflation Rate for March is announced.
On Wednesday, April 13 at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for March is printed.
On Thursday, April 14 at 7:30 AM, the Weekly Jobless Claims are printed. We also get Retail Sales for March.
On Friday, April 8 at 8:30 AM, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for March. At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is out.
As for me, back in 2002, I flew to Iceland to do some research on the country’s national DNA sequencing program called deCode, which analyzed the genetic material of everyone in that tiny nation of 250,000. It was the boldest project yet in the field and had already led to several breakthrough discoveries.
Let me start by telling you the downside of visiting Iceland. In the country that has produced three Miss Universes over the last 50 years, suddenly you are the ugliest guy in the country. Because guess what? The men are beautiful as well, the decedents of Vikings who became stranded here after they cut down all the forests on the island for firewood, leaving nothing with which to build long boats. I said they were beautiful, not smart.
Still, just looking is free and highly rewarding.
While I was there, I thought it would be fun to trek across Iceland from North to South in the spirit of Shackleton, Scott, and Amundsen. I went alone because after all, how many people do you know who want to trek across Iceland? Besides, it was only 150 miles or ten days to cross. A piece of cake really.
Near the trailhead, the scenery could have been a scene from Lord of the Rings, with undulating green hills, craggy rock formations, and miniature Icelandic ponies galloping in herds. It was nature in its most raw and pristine form. It was all breathtaking.
Most of the central part of Iceland is covered by a gigantic glacier over which a rough trail is marked by stakes planted in the snow every hundred meters. The problem arises when fog or blizzards set in, obscuring the next stake, making it too easy to get lost. Then you risk walking into a fumarole, a vent from the volcano under the ice always covered by boiling water. About ten people a year die this way.
My strategy in avoiding this cruel fate was very simple. Walk 50 meters. If I could see the next stake, I proceeded. If I couldn’t, I pitched my tent and waited until the storm passed.
It worked.
Every 10 kilometers stood a stone rescue hut with a propane stove for adventurers caught out in storms. I thought they were for wimps but always camped nearby for the company.
I was 100 miles into my trek, approached my hut for the night, and opened the door to say hello to my new friends.
What I saw horrified me.
Inside was an entire German Girl Scout Troop spread out in their sleeping bags all with a particularly virulent case of the flu. In the middle was a girl lying on the floor soaking wet and shivering, who had fallen into a glacier fed river. She was clearly dying of hypothermia.
I was pissed and instantly went into Marine Corp Captain mode, barking out orders left and right. Fortunately, my German was still pretty good then, so I instructed every girl to get out of their sleeping bags and pile them on top of the freezing scout. I then told them to strip the girl of her wet clothes and reclothe her with dry replacements. They could have their bags back when she got warm. The great thing about Germans is that they are really good at following orders.
Next, I turned the stove burners up high to generate some heat. Then I rifled through backpacks and cooked up what food I could find, force-fed it into the scouts and emptied my bottle of aspirin. For the adult leader, a woman in her thirties who was practically unconscious, I parted with my emergency supply of Jack Daniels.
By the next morning, the frozen girl was warm, the rest were recovering, and the leader was conscious. They thanked me profusely. I told them I was an American “Adler Scout” (Eagle Scout) and was just doing my job.
One of the girls cautiously moved forward and presented me with a small doll dressed in a traditional German Dirndl which she said was her good luck charm. Since I was her good luck, I should have it. It was the girl who was freezing the death the day before.
Some 20 years later I look back fondly on that trip and would love to do it again.
Anyone want to go to Iceland?
Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Iceland 2002
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 7, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A BIOTECH DAVID AND GOLIATH STORY)
(ALLO), (NVS), (GILD)
Back in 1996, a man named Doug Wilson received devastating news. He had chronic lymphocytic leukemia, a kind of cancer that begins with white blood cells. As the cancer progressed, he started going through several rounds of chemotherapy.
In 2009, he was told that the cancer had evolved. More alarmingly, chemo would no longer be an effective treatment for his condition. At that time, his doctor suggested a bone marrow transplant. Unfortunately, none of his family members were a good match.
With the cancer getting worse and nothing else left to try, Olson learned about a clinical trial for a new type of cancer treatment: CAR T-cell therapy.
The goal is to re-engineer the immune cells in the laboratory and transform them into weapons to hunt down killer cancer cells.
In 2010, Olson signed up for the trials.
Fast forward to 2022, Olson has become the poster child for the benefits of CAR T-cell therapy.
While oncologists are highly reluctant even to whisper the word “cure” when it comes to cancer, this term was thrown around several times during the news conference at the University of Pennsylvania.
The event, led by immunologist Carl June, presented data from 10 years of follow-up on the patients with leukemia who participated in the trial back in 2010.
Olson’s data demonstrated that CAR-T could cure cancer patients, with zero leukemia cells found in his blood 10 years after the treatment.
For decades, the mainstays of cancer treatments have been surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy.
With the emergence of CAR T-cell therapy, the fourth pillar of oncology may very well be the answer to this debilitating and fatal disease.
After all, CAR T-cell therapy has improved patients’ lives where other treatments failed to work.
Unlike chemo and radiation, this therapy targets the tumors with higher precision instead of killing both the healthy and cancerous cells.
CAR T-cell therapy dates as far back as the 1950s when the potential was studied following a bone marrow transplantation. That marked the first time that healthy living cells were infused into patients with blood cancer in an effort to control the disease.
But it was as early as the 1900s when researchers noted T cells' capacity to easily find, identify, and then kill cancer cells. The cells follow a “guide” to lead them to the tumors to achieve this. This introduced the role of antibodies as priceless medical and scientific tools.
In 2017, the groundbreaking approvals of two CAR T-cell therapies proved to be the climax of over 60 years of research on this immunotherapy.
Five years after it started working with the University of Pennsylvania, Novartis (NVS) became the first-ever biotechnology company to earn FDA approval for its CAR T-cell therapy: Kymriah.
Kymriah was first launched to target acute lymphoblastic leukemia in 2017. Since then, the indications for this treatment have expanded, and the latest is its application as an approved therapy for large B-cell lymphoma.
The other groundbreaking CAR T-cell therapy approved in 2017 is Kite Pharma’s large B-cell lymphoma treatment Yescarta.
In the same year, Gilead Sciences (GILD) acquired Kite Pharma for $11.9 billion and instantly became a major player in the CAR T-cell therapy space.
Thus far, Gilead and Novartis have remained the biggest names in this segment.
However, another biotech appears to be making a play in becoming the frontrunner in the CAR T-cell therapy space: Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO).
Unlike its competitors, Allogene is regarded as a speculative biotech play.
Despite its smaller market capitalization of $1.35 billion compared to Gilead’s massive $76.38 billion and Novartis’ jaw-dropping $223.18 billion, this biotech prides itself on an extensive pipeline filled with CAR T-cell therapies under development.
More importantly, Allogene has developed the AlloCAR T technology platform, which harvests healthy T-cells from other healthy donors.
In contrast, older CAR T-cell methods required harvesting the T-cells from the patients themselves.
Among its candidates, the most exciting integration of this technology is ALLO-316. This is the first program developed for renal cell carcinoma or kidney cancer patients.
This is an excellent first indication for the biotech due to the sheer size of the kidney cancer market. Globally, this segment is projected to reach $9.4 billion by 2026.
Where ALLO-316 and several of the candidates in the pipeline stand out is in their ability to go after CD70—a highly sought-after protein in cancer treatments.
This is an extremely promising breakthrough because tumor cells hijack this protein to accelerate the invasion of the immune system. This results in the high expression of CD70, which then inhibits the body’s anti-tumor response.
This is where ALLO-316 truly shines. This CAR-T therapy can precisely target CD70.
Add that to the patented AlloCAR T technology, and you get a highly effective and safe off-the-shelf CAR T-cell therapy with multiple applications.
Therefore, it offers the biotech incredible flexibility to utilize the therapy for hematologic malignancies or blood cancer and even solid tumors.
Needless to say, this opens the door to so many indications involving tumor expressions of CD70, including multiple myeloma, non-small cell lung cancer, cervical cancer, and ovarian cancer.
The CAR T-cell area, albeit exciting, remains relatively new that it’s challenging to figure out which companies will emerge as the most dominant forces.
At this point, Novartis and Gilead are looking like the strongest bets considering their financial and marketing capacity.
Both companies have more than sufficient revenue streams to tinker with the technology until they find a space that would truly pay off.
However, Allogene has the markings of a biotech that could upend the CAR T-cell industry—if its off-the-shelf solutions work out.
Currently, one of the biggest hindrances in this immunotherapy is the cost, and Allogene’s treatments appear to be the solution that could exponentially broaden their use.
Overall, Allogene is an interesting speculative biotech play to check out. Looking at its pipeline and patented technology, this company can revolutionize some cancer treatments in the future.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
March 15, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN UNDER-APPRECIATED STOCK WITH A BOATLOAD OF CASH)
(BMY), (CRSP), (VRTX), (BLUE), (GILD), (NVS)
Warren Buffett is nothing but a dyed-in-the-wool type of investor. A key strategy in his success is to target companies with notably solid fundamental businesses but with shares trading at a bargain or at least a discount in relation to their intrinsic value.
Needless to say, this value-oriented tactic has worked well for roughly six decades, with Berkshire’s stock delivering total returns of 6,450% on its capital.
Taking a cue from the Oracle of Omaha’s playbook, let’s take a look at one of the cheapest biotechnology and healthcare stocks in Berkshire’s portfolio to date and see how it has been performing.
At a hair below eight times its forward earnings, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) comes out as Berkshire’s third-cheapest stock holding overall.
This pharmaceutical giant, which has a market capitalization of $144 billion, is the sixth-biggest in the list of what is informally called the “Big 8” US pharma firms.
However, BMY’s stock had fallen by -2% in the past 12 months after experiencing some genuine momentum in 2021 when it reached $69 in August. The share price fell to $54 in December. It has since recovered and is now at $65.
A primary reason for investors snubbing this pharmaceutical giant is the impending loss of market exclusivity of three of its best-selling treatments, Revlimid, Opdivo, and Eliquis.
Although it’s reasonable to be anxious over these patent expirations, BMY has developed a great plan to not simply offset the future decline in sales but also to sustain the momentum of its top line all the way until 2030.
Basically, BMY has lined up multiple new drug launches spaced in the following years, with a number of these candidates expected to become potential blockbusters.
Another key part of the company’s growth strategy is acquisitions.
One of the significant moves BMY executed in recent years is its whopping $74 billion acquisition of Celgene in 2019, which is expected to bolster its immunology and oncology sectors. This was immediately followed by a $13 billion buyout of MyoKardia in 2020, which would expand its cardiovascular roster.
Celgene's deal granted BMY a valuable collection of pipeline assets, which the company has been leveraging in preparation for the patent cliffs.
Aside from the added $15 billion in annual revenue stream from Revlimid, which BMY used to boost its cash flow and pay off some debts, the company also inherited Reblozyl.
Since the acquisition, Reblozyl has gained approval for beta-thalassemia and anemia patients.
While this is not as groundbreaking as the gene therapies offered by CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vertex (VRTX), and even bluebird bio (BLUE), this treatment can still reach peak sales of $2 to $4 billion annually.
Another Celgene candidate poised to become an additional revenue stream for BMY is Inrebic, a JAK2 inhibitor created for myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera. This is projected to rake in $400 million in peak sales.
Zeposia, a treatment for autoimmune conditions, has already gained approval for multiple sclerosis and is queued for clinical trials for Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis.
If it receives the green light for all three, this is another $3 billion opportunity for BMY.
The inherited assets from Celgene are Breyanzi, a CAR-T therapy approved for large B-cell lymphoma, and Abecma, which is also an approved treatment for multiple myeloma.
These last two treatments are potential blockbusters as well.
Breyanzi’s list price is $410,000, with the therapy estimated to reach $3 billion in peak sales. Meanwhile, Abecma is listed at $491,500 and is projected to peak at $1 billion.
By 2029, BMY expects to develop new revenue streams worth $25 billion from its current portfolio and growing assets.
Looking at the above assets, BMY’s strategy becomes evident.
When BMY acquired Celgene for an exorbitant amount three years ago, the bigger company’s management team showed just how prepared they were to take the hit in the form of substantial debts in exchange for massive steps forward.
Adding to its expansion efforts, BMY has recently completed a deal with Century Therapeutics.
This marks BMY’s major foray into the promising cell therapy space.
While BMY has not concentrated on this sector before, it already has promising candidates in the form of its Celgene assets, Breyanzi and Abecma.
So far, Century and BMY have agreed to develop four different CAR-T cancer therapies on top of expanding the indications for Breyanzi and Abecma.
At the moment, the big pharma names focusing on this sector include Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Novartis (NVS).
This means BMY has a fighting chance to dominate in this market following its strategic collaboration with Century.
If all goes according to plan, BMY’s work with this cell therapy company might even turn out to be as lucrative as its deal with Celgene acquisition.
Overall, BMY has proven itself to be a reliable money-making titan in the biotechnology and healthcare industry.
BMY is a growth machine that consistently comes up with ingenious plans to grow over the years.
From $20.8 billion in 2017, its profits skyrocketed to an impressive $46.4 billion in 2021, indicating a remarkable 123% increase.
Moreover, the company anticipates that its free cash flow will surpass $50 billion by 2024, implying that it’s not worried over the impending loss of patent exclusivities and flexing its ability to generate a boatload of cash to complete even more collaborations and acquisitions.
