Global Market Comments
April 12, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, THE MELT UP IS ON!),
(SPX), (TLT), (DIS), (GM), (TM), (ZM),
(SQ), (PYPL), (JPM), (MSFT), (V)
Global Market Comments
April 12, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, THE MELT UP IS ON!),
(SPX), (TLT), (DIS), (GM), (TM), (ZM),
(SQ), (PYPL), (JPM), (MSFT), (V)
Global Market Comments
April 1, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARCH 31 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(FB), (ZM), ($INDU), (X), (NUE), (WPM), (GLD), (SLV), (KMI), (TLT), (TBT), (BA), (SQ), (PYPL), (JNP), (CP), (UNP), (TSLA), (GS), (GM), (F)
Global Market Comments
March 4, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BARBELL PLAY WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY),
(BRKA), (BRKA), (BAC), (KO), (AXP), (VZ), (BK) (USB),
(TLT), (AAPL), (MRK), (ABBV), (CVX), (GM), (PCC), (BNSF)
It’s time to give myself a dope slap.
I have been pounding the table all year about the merits of a barbell strategy, with equal weightings in technology and domestic recovery stocks. By owning both, you’ll always have something doing well as new cash flows bounce back and forth between the two sectors like a ping pong ball.
After all, nobody gets sector rotation right, unless they have been practicing for 50 years, like me.
Full disclosure: I have to admit that after 50 years of following him, I love Buffet. He was one of the first subscribers to my newsletter when it started up in 2008. Some of his best ideas have come from the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, like buying Bank of America for $5 in 2008.
Oh, and he hates Wall Street for constantly fleecing people. Ditto here.
In reading Warren Buffet’s annual letter (click here for the link), it occurred to me that his Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) shares were in effect a one-stop barbell investment.
For a start, Warren owns a serious slug of Apple (AAPL), some $120 billion worth, or 2.5% of the total fund. That gives (BRKB) some technology weighting. It cost him only $20 billion. The dividends he received entirely paid for the initial cost. So he owns 4% of Apple for free.
I remember the battle over the initial “BUY” five years ago. Warren fought it, insisting he didn’t understand the smart phone business. In the end, he bought Apple for its global brand value alone.
That is Warren Buffet to a tee.
The next five largest publicly listed holdings are Bank of America (BAC), Coca-Cola (KO), American Express (AXP), and Verizon Communications (VZ). These are your classic domestic recovery sectors. And with a heavy weighting in other banks (BK) (USB), Buffet is effectively short the bond market (TLT), another position I hugely favor.
Also included in the package is a liberal salting of pharmaceuticals, Merck (MRK) and AbbVie (ABBV). He has a small energy weighting with Chevron (CVX). He even has a position in old heavy metal America with General Motors (GM).
Berkshire is also one of the world’s largest property & casualty insurance owners. Its current “float” is $138 billion. You all know his flagship holding, GEICO. And the gecko mascot isn’t going anywhere as long as Warren lives. It was Warren’s idea.
It all seems to work for Warren. In 2020, he earned a staggering $42.5 billion. All told, Berkshire’s businesses employ 360,000, second to only Amazon (AMZN), and is the largest taxpayer in the United States, accounting for 3% of government revenues. Berkshire is also the largest owner of capital goods & equipment in the US worth $156 billion, topping (AT&T).
Many of Warrens's early 1956 $1,000 investors are millionaires many times over….and over 100 years old, prompting him to muse if ownership of his shares extended life.
Warren’s annual letter, which he spends practically the entire year working on, is always one of the best reads in the financial markets. There isn’t a better 50,000-foot view out there. He also admits to his mistakes, such as his disastrous purchase of Precision Castparts (PCC) in 2016 for $37 billion, which later suffered from the crash in the aerospace industry. In 2020, Buffet wrote off $11 billion of that acquisition.
He can do worse. In 1993, he bought the Dexter Shoe Company for $433 million worth of Berkshire stock. The company went under, but the Berkshire stock today is worth $8.7 billion.
Buffet’s letters always refer back to some of his “greatest hits,” today legends in the business history of the United States: GEICO, Furniture Mart, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and See’s Candies, one of the largest employers of women in the US using 150-year-old recipes. Its peanut brittle is to die for.
In 2009, Buffet snatched away from me BNSF for a song, now the most profitable railroad in the country, an amalgamation of 360 railroads over 170 years. I say “snatched away” because it was my favorite railroad trading vehicle for decades until he bought the entire company. I hear its trains run by my home every night as a grim reminder.
Another benefit to owning (BRKB) is that Buffet is far and away the largest buyer of his own shares, soaking up $25 billion worth in 2020. And he is buying the shares of other companies that are also aggressively buying their own shares, like Apple ($200 billion with last year). It all sounds like the perfect money creation machine to me.
It gets better. Berkshires “B” shares trade options, meaning you can buy LEAPS (Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities), which by now, you all know and love. I’ll run some numbers for you.
With (BRKB) now trading at $254, you can buy the January 2023 $300-$310 call spread for $2.50. If the shares close anywhere over $310 by the 2023 expiration, the position will be worth $10.00, giving you a gain of 300%. And you only need an appreciation of $56, or 22% in the shares to capture this blockbuster profit, giving you upside leverage of an eye-popping 13.63X in the best run company in America.
See, I told you you’d like it.
This is how poor people become rich. In fact, my target for (BRKB) is $300 for end of 2021 and $400 for 2022, right when the two-year LEAPS expire.
One question I often get about Berkshire is what happens when Warren Buffet goes to his greater reward, not an impossible concept given that he is 90 years old.
I imagine the shares will have a bad day or two, and then recover. Buffet has been hiring his replacements for a decade or more, and he handed off day-to-day operation years ago (I didn’t want to move to Omaha, no mountains).
When that happens, it will be the best buying opportunity of the year. And another chance to load up on those LEAPS.
Global Market Comments
December 2, 2020
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(WHAT HAPPENED TO THE DOW?)
($INDU), (EK), (S), (BS), (CVX), (DD), (MMM),
(FBHS), (MGDDY), (FL), (GE), (TSLA), (GM)
When I joined Morgan Stanley some 35 years ago, one of the grizzled old veterans took me aside and gave me a piece of sage advice.
“Never buy a Dow stock”, he said. “They are a guarantee of failure.”
That was quite a bold statement, given that at the time the closely watched index of 30 stocks included such high-flying darlings as Eastman Kodak (EK), Sears Roebuck & Company (S), and Bethlehem Steel (BS). It turned out to be excellent advice.
Only ten of the Dow stocks of 1983 are still in the index (see tables below), and almost all of the survivors changed names. Standard Oil of California became Chevron (CVX), E.I du Pont de Nemours & Company became DowDuPont, Inc. (DD), and Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing became 3M (MMM).
Almost all of the rest went out of business, like Union Carbide Corporation (the Bhopal disaster) and Johns-Manville (asbestos products) or were taken over. A small fragment of the old E.W. Woolworth is known as Foot Locker (FL) today.
Charles Dow created his namesake average on May 26, 1896, consisting of 12 names. Almost all were gigantic trusts and monopolies that were broken up only a few years later by the Sherman Antitrust Act.
In many ways, the index has evolved to reflect the maturing of the US economy, from an 18th century British agricultural colony, to the manufacturing powerhouse of the 20th century, to the technology and services-driven economy of today.
Of the original Dow stocks, only one, US Leather, vanished without a trace. It was the victim of the leap from horses to automobile transportation and the internal combustion engine. United States Rubber is now part of France’s Michelin Group (MGDDY).
American Tobacco reinvented itself as Fortune Brands (FBHS) to ditch the unpopular “tobacco” word. National Lead moved into paints with the Dutch Boy brand. It sold off that division when the prospects for leaded paints dimmed in 1970 (they cause mental illness in children).
What was the longest-lived of the original 1896 Dow stocks? General Electric (GE), originally founded by light bulb inventor Thomas Edison. It went down in flames thanks to poor management and was delisted in 2018. It was a 122-year run. Today, it is one of the great turnaround challenges facing American Industry.
Which company is the American Leather of today? My bet is that it’s General Motors (GM), which is greatly lagging behind Tesla (TSLA) in the development of electric cars (99% market share versus 1%). With a product development cycle of five years, it simply lacks the DNA to compete in the technology age.
What will be the largest Dow stock in a decade? Regular readers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader already know the answer.
Global Market Comments
October 21, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY YOU MUST AVOID ALL EV PLAYS EXCEPT TESLA),
(TSLA), (GM)
Markets live on fads. Once a certain investment theme takes hold, the imitators start coming out of the woodwork in droves.
In 1989, all of the largest Japanese banks stampeded to issue naked short put options on the Nikkei Average by the billions of dollars when the index was at an all-time high. It then fell by 85%.
I remember signing the paperwork on a $3 billion deal for the Industrial Bank of Japan on behalf of Morgan Stanley. It’s been 31 years, but I’m still waiting for those investors to come after me.
Then there was the peak of the Dotcom Bubble in 2000 and no less that five online pet food delivery companies raised billions. (remember those cute sock puppets?) Every one of them went under.
So, what has been one of the biggest fads of 2020?
That would be electric vehicles.
You no longer have to wear Birkenstocks, grow your hair long, and smoke pot to drive an electric car. They are about to become a major part of the American economy. According to Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley, EVs account for 1.3% of the total car market today and will grow to 10% by 2025 and 25% by 2030.
I have been involved in Tesla since its earliest days back in 2003. Then it was one rich man’s hobby, with technology that was a reach at best, and unlikely to ever see the light of day as a public company. There it remained for seven years.
Then they brought out the Model S in 2010, which I snapped up as fast as I could, picking up chassis no. 125 at the Fremont factory. My signature is still on the wall there. If it worked this had the potential to be a real car. If it didn’t, I would wind up with $100,000 worth of inert aluminum, steel, silicon, rubber, and copper.
The trials were then only just beginning for Musk. He faced nervous breakdowns, sleeping in factories, and SEC prosecutions. After a decade of abuse, suddenly everything clicked. Total Tesla production soared to over one million units and the shares leaped 150-fold to $500 from their post IPO low of $3.30. That move financed a lot of retirements among my readers.
I remember what Steve Jobs once told me; “Like many overnight successes, this one took decades to pull off.”
Suddenly, making electric cars looked easy. Raising money to finance them looked even easier.
Enter the hoards, which I list below, a roll call of the shameless:
Nikola Badger – Roll out is expected in 2021 and has a hydrogen fuel cell power source that hasn’t a hope in hell of ever becoming economic. As I never tire of explaining to investors, while electric power is digital and scalable, hydrogen is analog and isn’t. Maybe that’s why the stock is down 83% since June. Too many unbelievable promises and no actual functioning model. Gravity was their only actual power source.
Fisker – If at first, you don’t succeed, why not fail again? This had double the number of parts of a conventional international combustion engine. Its chief claim to fame was that it got a free factory from the government in Joe Biden’s home state and the fact that Justin Bieber drives one. More flailing at the wind.
Aspark Owl – A $3.2 niche supercar with appeal to maybe three car collecting Saudi princes.
Bollinger B1 – Is a $125,000 SUV expected from a Michigan startup with only a 200-mile range. Why not pay nearly double the cost of a Tesla Model X and get half the performance?
The Byton M-Byte – Is a $45,000 crossover car from a Chinese start up. China has actually been building electric cars longer than Tesla, but they have a tendency to breakdown or catch on fire. Quality and safety problems have until now kept them out of the US, and probably always will.
Genesis Essentia – A Croatian-based startup with a major investment from South Korea’s Hyundai. It will most likely never get off the drawing board. The last time Croatia built cars was for the Austria Hungarian Empire during WWI.
Rivian R1T – A startup with a reasonably priced truck and up to 400 miles of range that will only make it because they have a 100,000-unit order from the largest shareholder, Amazon (AMZ). It’s perfect for local deliveries.
By now, virtually every major car manufacturer has or is about to roll out its own entry in the electric car race. I list them below, skipping those that are more than two years out over the horizon. Notice the profusion of the letter “e” in the names.
They include the Porsche Taycan, Audi eTron, Jaguar I-Pace, Austin Mini Electric, Fiat 500e, Kia Niro EV, BMW i3, Chevy Bolt EV, Hyundai Kona Electric, and the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, Ford F-150 Electric, Ford Mustang Mach-E, and Nissan Ariya.
Not one of these comes even close to the price/performance and battery density of the Tesla cars. Tesla is a decade ahead of the competition and is accelerating its lead. At best, they will sell a few electric cars to those who are intensely loyal to their brands and lose money doing it.
In the meantime, Tesla hasn’t been sitting on its hands. Elon Musk plans to bring out a $25,000 model in two years that will bar entry to the field any other competitor. It is bringing out its own $250,000 supercar, the Tesla Plaid, which will go zero to 60 MPH in 1.9 seconds and have a 600-mile range. The Tesla Cyber Truck at $40,000 has the specs to take on the enormous US pickup market. Did I mention that the company is on the verge of developing technology that will improve battery performance by a staggering 20-fold?
So Tesla is branching out to suck up every profit in every branch of the entire global auto industry.
And this is what most traders, especially the short sellers, got wrong about Tesla. The data is worth more than the car. The miles driven provide a springboard from which the company can offer very high value-added and profitable services, like autonomous driving. Not even Alphabet (GOOGL) can replicate this.
When I bought my first Tesla more than a decade ago, I knew I was betting on the company. The big risk was that General Motors (GM) would step in with their own cheap electric car and drive Tesla out of business.
In the end (GM) did that, but too little, too late. It’s Chevy Bolt EV didn’t hit the market until the end of 2016. Today, it offers a boring design, lacks autonomous driving, possesses only a 259-mile range for $36,620, and is subject to recall, thanks to recurring battery fires (click here for the link).
The quality is, well, Chevy quality.
This year, Chevy will sell under 20,000 Bolts. Tesla is approaching 500,000. It’s too late to close the barn door after the horse has “bolted,” as GM is earning. Over the past decade, Tesla shares are up 150 times. GM shares are nearly unchanged during the greatest bull market of all times.
It is competing against Teslas that are 20 years from the future, are fully autonomous, goes to street-to -treet autonomous driving next year, and upgrades itself once or twice a month.
Make mine Tesla, please, which will soon become the world’s first trillion dollar car company. Don’t waste your time or money on the others, either as a driver or investor.
Global Market Comments
October 16, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO GAIN AN ADVANTAGE WITH PARALLEL TRADING),
(GM), (F), (TM), (NSANY), (DDAIF), BMW (BMWYY), (VWAPY),
(PALL), (GS), (RSX), (EZA), (CAT), (CMI), (KMTUY),
(KODK), (SLV), (AAPL)
Global Market Comments
October 2, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SEPTEMBER 30 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(NVDA), (AMD), (JPM), (DIS), (GM), (TSLA), (NKLA),
(TLT), (NFLX), (PLTR), (VIX), (PHM), (LEN), (KBH), (FXA), (GLD)
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