Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 15, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A LONG-TERM HIGH-RISK STOCK)
(ILMN), (GRAL), (EXAS), (NVTA), (GH), (NTRA)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 15, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A LONG-TERM HIGH-RISK STOCK)
(ILMN), (GRAL), (EXAS), (NVTA), (GH), (NTRA)
As Warren Buffett says, it’s wise to be greedy when others are fearful. This is excellent advice these days since we’ve been dealing with fearful times. Even the best growth stocks have been struggling from economic headwinds and the rising panic over interest rate hikes.
That means there are several opportunities for enterprising investors to take advantage of the uncertainties and set themselves up for long-term success by buying quality stocks at discounted prices.
One stock that has been battling issues lately is Illumina (ILMN).
Over the past 10 years, Illumina has delivered 380% returns—resoundingly beating the market’s gain of 241.6%.
To achieve that success, the company sold, installed, and serviced over 20,000 gene sequencer devices, which hospitals and other biomedical centers use to analyze genetic data.
Unfortunately, Illumina’s luck has turned in the last 12 months. The company has been underperforming and has investors worried about the future.
Illumina’s dominance in the sequencer market is one of the significant reasons to invest in its stock.
After all, the significance of genetic information is projected to expand over time. That makes Illumina the clear candidate for a long-term hold despite its current underperformance.
However, it’s understandable for investors to be anxious, especially with the recent move of Europe’s antitrust regulators to bar the $8 billion acquisition of Grail (GRAL).
Here’s a brief background about the deal.
Grail has created a lab test that can identify over 50 types of cancers at their early stages using only a simple blood draw. This is called the Galleri blood test.
Since screenings do not exist for most kinds of cancers, many are not diagnosed until they’re already spread and are, therefore, more challenging to treat.
Although Grail’s test does not promise to detect all cancers, it can catch the 12 most fatal types with roughly 76% accuracy, while its false positives are lower than 1%.
Needless to say, these tests could save thousands of lives annually if adopted across the globe.
This is where Illumina comes in. Since the company develops platforms that sequence genetic tests for various fetal abnormalities and even COVID variants, it has the technology to expand Grail’s operation.
Moreover, Illumina has extensive experience negotiating insurer reimbursements, which means it could accelerate the commercial adoption of Grail’s technology. At the moment, most insurers refuse to cover the costs of Grail’s test.
This resulted in only $12 million in revenue for the company, with over $187 million in operating loss. Grail’s underwhelming performance is one of the reasons investors are baffled over the move to block the acquisition.
Another is that the acquisition does not fall under any of the categories for antitrust reviews under the EU bylaws because Grail does not operate or do any business in Europe.
However, the commissioner decided to invoke a provision under EU’s merger rules that allow member states to reach out to the commission when their governments do not have jurisdiction over the matter. Six countries did so, which led to the review.
The commission is tag-teaming with the US Federal Trade Commission, which also moved to stop the deal in 2021. Both regulating bodies claim that the agreement could impede competition in the embryonic multiple cancer-early detection industry.
According to the EU commission, this acquisition would cut off all of Grail’s rivals in the segment.
This is a tad confusing, though, because Grail has no rivals in the field.
The entire debacle has the scientific community wondering over the real reason, especially since Illumina developed the technology Grail used. Then, it was spun off for financing purposes, but Illumina still retained 20% ownership. Now, the company is merely taking it all back again by acquiring it.
It remains to be seen what will happen in the following months as Illumina plans to appeal the decision.
But why is Illumina still pushing through with this deal?
The reality is that the genetic testing industry is a bloodbath. It can take years for a single genetic test to complete clinical trials, receive regulatory approval, and achieve insurance coverage. This struggle is apparent in so many clinical laboratories such as Exact Sciences (EXAS), Invitae (NVTA), Guardant Health (GH), and Natera (NTRA). Even Grail lost so much while developing its cancer blood test.
Meanwhile, Illumina chooses to market clinical tests its clients have already pioneered. That way, it can still gain profits as a supplier of sequencing tools.
Hence, having Grail back in its portfolio would be a cherry on top of its current strategy.
Looking at the situation right now, it’s a mess. Nevertheless, Illumina’s main line of business is a significant segment to be a part of in the coming years.
I don’t think the company would spend this much time and effort on Grail unless the future payoff would be substantial. Think about it: detecting cancers early? How incredible is this technology? How many lives would be saved because of it?
The long-term investing thesis for betting on Illumina is that it’ll most likely continue to deploy its gene sequencing devices globally, generating more recurring revenue flows in the process.
Simultaneously, the company can expand its domain knowledge and gather a copious amount of data for R&D that would equip it against competitors.
Basically, it has found a way to lock in customers for years while being several steps ahead of its rivals.
As confusing and grim the situation may be, for now, I believe Illumina stock is an excellent investment with or without Grail (but I hope it finds a way to be with it).
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
OKLearn moreWe may request cookies to be set on your device. We use cookies to let us know when you visit our websites, how you interact with us, to enrich your user experience, and to customize your relationship with our website.
Click on the different category headings to find out more. You can also change some of your preferences. Note that blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience on our websites and the services we are able to offer.
These cookies are strictly necessary to provide you with services available through our website and to use some of its features.
Because these cookies are strictly necessary to deliver the website, refuseing them will have impact how our site functions. You always can block or delete cookies by changing your browser settings and force blocking all cookies on this website. But this will always prompt you to accept/refuse cookies when revisiting our site.
We fully respect if you want to refuse cookies but to avoid asking you again and again kindly allow us to store a cookie for that. You are free to opt out any time or opt in for other cookies to get a better experience. If you refuse cookies we will remove all set cookies in our domain.
We provide you with a list of stored cookies on your computer in our domain so you can check what we stored. Due to security reasons we are not able to show or modify cookies from other domains. You can check these in your browser security settings.
These cookies collect information that is used either in aggregate form to help us understand how our website is being used or how effective our marketing campaigns are, or to help us customize our website and application for you in order to enhance your experience.
If you do not want that we track your visist to our site you can disable tracking in your browser here:
We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.
Google Webfont Settings:
Google Map Settings:
Vimeo and Youtube video embeds: