Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 18, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PHARMAGEDDON AVERTED)
(ILMN), (NVTAQ), (NTRA), (GH), (EXAS), (TMO), (QGEN), (NVS), (RHHBY), (AZN), (CRSP), (EDIT), (FATE)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 18, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PHARMAGEDDON AVERTED)
(ILMN), (NVTAQ), (NTRA), (GH), (EXAS), (TMO), (QGEN), (NVS), (RHHBY), (AZN), (CRSP), (EDIT), (FATE)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
March 22, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE 800-POUND GORILLA IN THE GENE-SEQUENCING SECTOR)
(ILMN), (A), (TMO), (MRK), (RHHBY)
I’m a huge fan of the "razor and blades" business strategy, where the pricing and marketing model is designed to generate recurring, dependable income by ensuring that a customer is locked in onto a product or service for a long time.
The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the significance of DNA sequencing in improving and monitoring global health.
Thanks to DNA sequencing, we were able to identify the novel coronavirus and eventually developed vaccines and PCR-based tests. This also played a crucial role in detecting new strains and even transmission tracking.
To date, the top name in the DNA sequencing community is Illumina (ILMN).
In terms of competitors, the closest to Illumina’s dominance are Agilent Technologies (A) and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO). However, neither have developed their platforms enough to be directly comparable to Illumina.
Illumina has a notable installed base comprising approximately 20,000 machines owned by roughly 7,300 clients.
With the rising popularity of DNA sequencing, the demand for the company’s installation base is estimated to continue growing and along with it is the sale of consumables.
This is where the razor and blades business model comes in.
The consumables form a major part of Illumina’s strategy, with the instruments serving as “razors” and consumables as “blades.”
The cost of instruments can fall within the range of $20,000 to $1 million and are essential elements of expanding the company’s portfolio and locking in clients into long-term commitments.
Consumables typically represent 50% or more of the revenue of any DNA sequencing company. For Illumina, the number climbs to 80%.
Considering that the consumables also need repairs, this segment is expected to continue generating profits in services and contracts.
Evidently, 80% recurring revenue is highly indicative of a rock-solid business.
While the business model isn’t unique to Illumina, the company has attracted attention in Wall Street due to its exponential growth over the past years.
In the last five years, Illumina has practically doubled its revenue. During the COVID-induced economic slowdown, the company quickly recovered from a brief slump and accelerated its revenue growth at an even faster pace.
In the fourth quarter report for 2021, Illumina reported about $1.9 billion in revenue or an impressive 25% increase year-over-year.
As for 2022, the company is conservatively anticipating a 14% to 16% growth in its revenue.
Another step towards securing dominance in this field is Illumina’s decision to launch the TruSight Oncology Comprehensive test in Europe.
This is basically a cancer test that uses a single tissue sample to test for a broad range of tumor genes and biomarkers.
The goal is to create a “tumor profile” of patients with rare conditions to find a matching treatment option via precision technology. This doesn’t only cover available cancer therapies in the market but also clinical trials.
While this test focuses on the oncology sector, Illumina and its competitors are presumably working on more sophisticated genetic profile-based diagnostic tools for other conditions.
Although this has yet to be launched on a larger scale, Illumina is reported to seek collaborations with leading oncology treatment providers like Merck (MRK), Bayer (BAYN), and Roche (RHHBY).
Illumina has invested in seven new startups to further expand its pipeline: 4SR Biosciences; B4X; Cache DNA; CRISP-HR Therapeutics; NonExomics; Purpose Health; and Rethink Bio.
These focus on breakthrough therapies, DNA storage, mental wellness, sustainable food, and diagnostics.
Illumina has invested in 68 startups to date. This is a brilliant scheme to continue company growth and pipeline expansion for decades.
The DNA sequencing market was valued at $6.243 million in 2017 and is projected to hit $25.470 million by 2025.
Illumina’s remarkable execution of the razor and blades model, strong profit margins, and proactive profitability initiatives catapulted it to the top of the DNA sequencing sector.
Needless to say, Illumina is the 800-pound gorilla in the gene-sequencing sector—a dominance that is expected to go on for years.
There is a huge possibility that the first person to ever live to a thousand years old has been born in our lifetime.
That’s according to experts on life longevity. They also say that sooner rather than later, we’ll simply be checking ourselves into hospitals or clinics once every decade.
Pretty much how you’d bring your car in for a service, that’s how we’ll keep our bodies working at peak condition for centuries.
As far-fetched as it sounds, it’s undeniable that dreams of achieving immortality are as old as mankind itself.
One of the leading experts on this is the Human Longevity, Inc., which has leading genomics expert J. Craig Venter and billionaire Peter Diamandis as its founders.
Although it’s still not yet a publicly-traded company, Human Longevity, Inc. has been collaborating with cancer diagnostics firm Neogenomics (NEO).
Admittedly, NEO’s $5.32 billion market capitalization doesn’t really boost that much confidence in this company.
However, Human Longevity’s work with a Big Pharma company like AstraZeneca (AZN), which holds a market cap of $158.14 billion, definitely backs up its claims.
Moreover, AstraZeneca and Human Longevity are already halfway through their 10-year agreement that dates back to 2016.
Basically, what Human Longevity does is sequence an individual’s DNA and combine the information with an extensive list of tests to figure out how long that person will live and what steps can be taken to extend his or her life.
More impressively, the company can use the data to predict a budding disease, such as cancer, even before it exhibits symptoms.
And how much will that cost you?
Right now, the company is charging $25,000 for a comprehensive set of tests and a full profile.
In the end, you’d be given medical information about yourself that amounts to roughly 1 petabyte. For context, that’s 1,000 terabytes or 1 million GB worth of data.
While the cost is definitely high, it’s a good preventive measure to consider if you can spare the cash.
This is because the company can detect the slightest hint of diseases, which are typically at their most treatable phase.
Since the company is founded on the belief that we are all “DNA software-driven species,” it can also determine the disease-producing genes in our systems and use them as “pharmaceutical targets, so that people with those genetic changes don’t die.”
Aside from Human Longevity, another company working on this nice is called Life Biosciences, which was founded in 2017.
Since its launch, Life Biosciences has been acquiring companies left and right to boost its pipelines.
So far, it has at least 6 subsidiaries focused on developing treatments to fight the human aging process.
What makes Life Biosciences different is that it doesn’t focus on the leading causes of death, such as cardiovascular diseases or cancer.
Instead, it tries to figure out what are the underlying causes of the body’s aging. This includes stem cell exhaustion, cellular senescence, chromosomal instability, and even our metabolism.
At their core, Life Biosciences’ belief is that aging itself should not be considered a natural biological result of the passage of time.
Rather, it should be understood as a medical condition—the kind that can be treated in the same way we’d try to find medications or cures for diseases.
While Life Biosciences’ work has yet to earn any FDA approval, the involvement of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) in its aging research seems to boost confidence in the company’s work.
Apart from GSK, a number of tech billionaires have expressly backed these efforts in the anti-aging field.
The most visible ones include Calico, which is backed by Google and AbbVie (ABBV), and Unity Biotechnology, supported by Jeff Bezos.
While Human Longevity and Life Biosciences have yet to go on IPO, there are already companies working on fields related to life longevity.
The first names that come to mind are the frontrunners of the genome sequencing market, such as Illumina (ILMN), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and 10x Genomics (TXG).
Smaller companies in this field include bluebird Bio (BLUE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), and Editas Medicine (EDIT).
Inasmuch as this is difficult to grasp at this stage, there is a massive market for this industry. In fact, the global longevity segment is projected to reach $27 trillion in 2026, which accounts for roughly 20% of the global GDP.
Meanwhile, the global market for human aging is estimated to reach at least $55 billion by 2023.
And those are just conservative estimates.
Making the public accept the idea behind longevity science has not been easy. Even with Big Pharma names backing these innovative companies, people are still wary of the concept.
After all, surveys show that most people would refuse medical treatments to slow their aging and allow them to live up to 120 or older. It’s not surprising why.
Those respondents probably witnessed how their older grandparents and parents spent their final years in pain and were subjected to invasive medical procedures. That makes the entire idea of living so long horrific to them.
However, the future imagined by these companies is different. Through their research, people can live long and still enjoy active and healthy lifestyles.
At this point, the longevity science space remains a playground dominated by a handful of transhumanists and even biohackers.
Nonetheless, the entry of the most respected researchers and the support from the biggest biopharmaceutical companies across the globe give hope that the promises the industry holds will become a reality soon.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 11, 2021
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(THE TESLA STOCK OF GENETIC TESTING)
(NVTA), (CRSP), (TDOC), (RHHBY), (ILMN), (ABT), (DGX), (ROKU), (SQ), (SHOP), (TSLA)
No other industry has ever been watched as closely in 2020 as the healthcare and biotechnology sector, with drug developers placed under pressure to deliver COVID-19 treatments and vaccines within an unprecedented timeframe.
Despite all the attention and fanfare, the overall performance of the sector’s stocks remained underwhelming. However, 2021 promises to bring in better returns and bring back the industry to pre-pandemic performance.
For perspective, the S&P 500 Health Care Sector Index rose by 8% through mid-December compared to the 13% increase of the S&P 500.
The financial and health crises affected the performance of the subgroups in different ways. For example, the diagnostics subgroup jumped by 31% while the demand for clinical labs was up 18%.
Meanwhile, biotechnology stocks rose by 13%. In comparison, traditional pharmaceutical stocks and even hospitals only managed to record a measly 3% increase.
As for retail pharmacies, this subgroup sank by 18%.
Despite the underperformance of the industry, there are still companies that stood out this year and are poised to soar come 2021.
One of them is Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX).
Vertex is possibly one of the most undervalued large-cap biotechnology stocks in the market today.
This company, which has $61.7 billion in market capitalization, has been continuously growing and transforming into the most dominant player in the cystic fibrosis (CF) space.
Truth be told, Vertex holds the monopoly on the approved drugs used to treat CF, namely, Trikafta, Kalydeco, Orkambi, and Symdeko.
With the recent approvals the company received, this momentum is expected to grow.
Vertex just won additional EU approval for its CF drug Kaftrio. This indicates another cash cow for the company as the drug, also known as Trikafta, already transformed itself into a megablockbuster in the US market.
Apart from its efforts to continuously dominate the CF sector, Vertex also has several moonshots that can eventually turn into major catalysts.
Among those is its partnership with CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP).
The two biotechnology companies are developing a gene therapy, called CTX001, which can cure rare genetic blood diseases. Specifically, CTX001 is designed to cure beta-thalassemia and sickle cell disease.
Apart from its partnership with CRISPR Therapeutics, Vertex also acquired Semma Therapeutics in 2019 with the goal of coming up with a cure for Type 1 diabetes.
If things go as planned, a gene therapy for this genetic disease will advance to clinical testing by early 2021.
Another under the radar biotechnology stock set to soar in 2020 is Illumina (ILMN).
Illumina, with a market capitalization of $54.10 billion, is the leader in the genomics market.
Since the pandemic broke, the biotechnology sector’s leading manufacturer of hardware for genetic sequencing has been supplying testing kits for hospitals across the US.
Apart from Illumina, other companies in the genomics sectors include Vertex’s partner, CRISPR Therapeutics, which has a market capitalization of $4.48 billion, and bluebird bio (BLUE) with $4.03 billion.
In a nutshell, genomics refers to the analysis of the genetic information found in human cells. Companies working on this field aim to not only develop more accurate and efficient disease testing processes but also come up with more personalized treatments for a range of diseases including cancer.
Looking at Illumina’s profile and even taking into consideration the effects of the recession along with the competitive pressure to be expected soon enough, this biotechnology company is still set to deliver solid returns over the next 3 to 5 years.
Ever since its establishment, Illumina has been hailed as the leader in the gene-sequencing segment.
To date, the company holds almost 90% of the market.
Apart from that, the company has been an active participant in the move to lower the costs of gene-sequencing processes. In effect, Illumina managed to expand its customer reach.
Illumina’s participation in the 13-year Human Genome Project, which started at $3 billion per genome submitted for sequencing in 2003.
Nowadays, the cost has dropped to $800 for each genome, with Illumina eyeing to drop the price to $100 via its NovaSeq platform.
Based on the company’s performance in the past years, Illumina’s revenue is expected to climb higher annually in the next 5 years.
By 2021, the company is projected to report a 21.16% year over year growth in annual revenue to reach 4.23 billion.
Meanwhile, its 2022 annual revenue is estimated to hit $4.79 billion, showing off a 13.37% increase.
Despite the attention it has been receiving, Illumina remains a bargain buy.
This is because the company’s gene-sequencing projects have been moving along at a decent pace even before the COVID-19 crisis hit.
Given the company’s growth and future plans, Illumina is a no-brainer long-term investment. However, investors looking for quick returns might find the company’s pace a bit sluggish for their liking.
Among the biotechnology companies out there today, I think Vertex and Illumina stand out the most because both hold a monopoly in their respective fields.
Sure, there would be competition eventually but the combination of all their strengths and the strong potential of their pipeline put them in a league of their own.
Global Market Comments
July 10, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, JULY 17 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(REGN), (ILMN), (SGEN), (JPM)
Global Market Comments
June 22, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, OR THE FED RIDES AGAIN),
(TLT), (SPY), (TSLA), (IBB), (AMGN), (GILD), (ILMN)
Global Market Comments
July 17, 2019
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL BIOTECH ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(FIVE BIOTECH STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),
(SPY), (VRTX), (JNJ), (ISRG), (CELG), (BMY), (AMGN), (ILMN)
No sector has been beaten, maligned, and abused more than the biotech sector in recent years. However, some of them are so bad they’ve become good, which piques my interest.
Investing in biotech stocks is not for the faint of heart. The road to developing and commercializing new drugs is long and riddled with hard battles, and an anxious investor won’t be able to sleep at night.
However, the returns offer incredible gains when everything falls into place. In this sector you’re almost buying lottery tickets rather than investing in shares.
In 1919, the term "biotechnology" was coined by a Hungarian agricultural engineer named Karl Ereky to define the merging of two industries: biology and technology. Almost a century later, Ereky's vision has been realized with thousands of products and services available in the biotech market today.
Despite the advancements of this industry though, the majority of the buy-and-hold investors choose to steer clear of biotech stocks -- and for sensible reasons.
It's no secret that investing in biotechnology firms can be unnervingly risky. Since its advent, investors have been regaled with horror stories of costly stage three drug trials going bust or plummeting stock prices due to the expiration of critical patents. Needless to say, these stories have soured would-be investors on the whole biotech world.
However, inadequate information and a lack of understanding of how the biotech industry really operates along with reliance on the performance of only a handful of biotech stocks may have caused investors to miss out on attractive risk-reward relationships. Not all biotech investments lead to disastrous results.
You may be surprised to learn that shares of the biotech industry has collectively gone up by approximately 70% in the past five years. This proves just how much these biotech companies rewarded their enduring. Success in biotech investing is simply a matter of buckling down to do your homework and applying a tad of common sense.
Throughout this decade, one sector has managed to outperform the S&P 500 index (SPY) in terms of total return annually: the healthcare sector. While there's no guarantee that healthcare stocks will go on to beat the S&P 500 in the years to come, the fact remains that people will continue to need medicines as well as healthcare services regardless of the country's economic status. The increasing reliance of the healthcare industry on technology has put the biotech industry smack dab in the center of all these demands.
I’ll give you some of my favorite plays in the sector.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Big-cap pharmaceutical company Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc currently has the monopoly on the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) with three approved drugs out in the market, Kalydeco, Orkambi, and Symdeko, along with several promising products in the pipeline to target other auto-immune diseases.
In June, Vertex turned its sights on the genetic therapy part of the business via an expansion of its ongoing collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics (CSPR). Vertex also purchased gene therapy firm Exonics Therapeutics to strengthen its foothold in this revolutionary technology.
Given the spectacular success of Vertex with CF treatments, its work with gene therapy is projected to bring in another blockbuster deal to the company. To ensure its monopoly in the CF market, Vertex has been aggressively seeking additional regulatory approvals to cater to younger CF patients. If the company succeeds, its target market of 75,000 CF patients would gain an additional 44,000.
Vertex is not limiting its efforts in this field though. To seal its position as the leader in CF treatments, the company is looking at developing triple-drug therapies as the next big development in their treatment plans. It has been performing clinical trials on three varying triple-drug combinations. If approved, these therapies would be able to address approximately 90% of the total number of CF patients.
As for the remaining 10% with no operational CF treatment, Vertex aims to address this via its work on gene editing alongside CRISPR Therapeutics. Aside from CF, the two companies have commenced clinical studies on applying gene-editing therapies to treat rare blood diseases and sickle cell disease.
Overall, Vertex is a certified outperformer in the world of big-cap biotech and provides good value to its shareholders.
Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is one of the most attractive names in the biotech space. While the lawsuits against it involving alleged toxic baby powder endanger (JNJ)’s equity, the company is still hailed as one of the most notable innovators in the healthcare ecosystem.
The company recently disclosed its progress in developing an AIDS vaccine. Although the negative headlines about the company can be a cause of concern to some, it could turn out to be a win-win situation for long-term investors who can then take advantage of the bargain basement stock price.
(JNJ) has reinforced its stronghold in the fields of neuroscience, oncology, and immunology with these three areas generating over 72% of the company’s drug sales in the first quarter. In fact, (JNJ) recently received an FDA approval on its myeloma drug Dexamethasone. Its collaborative work on cancer treatment with Celgene’s (CELG) Revlimid and its own Darzalex received the FDA’s green light as well.
Apart from developing new treatments and medications, (JNJ) is also moving forward in the development of its robotic sector. Earlier this year, the company purchased robotic surgery firm Auris Health for $3.4 billion in an effort to dethrone the current sector leader Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).
With all that is in its drug and services pipeline along with its earlier successes, (JNJ) raised its 2019 outlook despite its legal woes. The biopharma giant now anticipates a sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5%. Meanwhile, its adjusted earnings per share now stands somewhere in the range of $8.53 and $8.63 per share.
Celgene (CELG)
Celgene (CELG) is one biotech stock that you can get on the cheap. It offers shares trading at only 7.4 times expected earnings.
With its shares trading well below the total book value courtesy of the pending acquisition by Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), investors would be hard-pressed not to take advantage of the opportunity to add a company leading in the development of treatments for cancer, blood disorders, and immunological conditions.
Aside from the looming acquisition, another reason for Celgene’s dirt-cheap stock involves the decision to sell blockbuster immunology drug Otezla to allow Bristol-Myers Squibb to appease the Federal Trade Commission’s concerns over the deal. Nonetheless, Celgene’s remaining drugs still perform well in the market.
Its blood cancer drugs, Revlimid and Pomalyst, are the leading go-to drug for multiple myeloma. Revlimid has been approved to treat two additional rare blood diseases, myelodysplastic syndromes and mantle cell lymphoma. Another winner in Celgene’s lineup is its solid tumor drug Abraxane, which has been approved for advanced breast cancer treatment along with non-small-cell lung cancer and advanced pancreatic cancer.
Celgene’s pipeline is loaded with promising winners as well, with myelofibrosis drug Fedratinib and multiple sclerosis treatment Ozanimod up for FDA approval this year. Three additional blood disease drugs including Luspatercept are also in the works along with a cell therapy called Liso-cel, which engineers the body’s immune cells to target particular types of cancer. Celgene’s work with Bluebird Bio is expected to bring another cell therapy procedure called bb2121, which is anticipated to bolster the biopharma firm’s dominance on the multiple myeloma market.
Amgen (AMGN)
With its ability to flex its financial muscles at will, Amgen (AMGN) has accumulated nearly $30 billion in cash and investments. In the past four years, it has recorded an average annual net profit of roughly $6 billion.
The company has achieved tremendous success in developing groundbreaking technology and edging out its competition courtesy of its innovative treatments like the post-chemo therapy called Neulasta. Its cholesterol drug Repatha and arthritis medication Enbrel are both impressive performers in the market as well.
Despite its aggressive drive to acquire small biopharma firms, Amgen is actually a pretty safe investment. Throughout the years, the company has made a conscious effort to diversify its portfolio to steer clear of dependence on a single product.
In fact, no single drug provides more than one-fourth of Amgen’s total income. Among its products, only two drugs generate over a tenth of its revenue. This pattern of revenue diversity doesn’t stop here either as Amgen’s pipeline has nine Phase 3 trials and an additional five Phase 2 trials.
Illumina (ILMN)
One of the incredible developments in healthcare involves the unlocking of the secrets of the human genome – and Illumina (ILMN) has been widely recognized as the leader in this field. In fact, this company has performed more than 90% of all gene sequencing procedures ever recorded.
Branded as the “gold standard” for gene sequencing, Illumina’s highly accurate technology has turned the company into one of the leaders in the biotech space. Illumina is projected to dominate the industry for a very long time.
More importantly, Illumina has managed to make these treatments affordable. Using Illumina’s technology, the cost of human genome therapy has been remarkably cut from a staggering $100 million back in 2002 to an affordable $1,000 today.
Despite its potential, Illumina released lower-than-expected revenue guidance for this year. However, its track record indicates that the company has the tendency to underpromise but overdeliver.
Its revolutionary gene sequencing equipment NovaSeq has made remarkable progress since its availability in 2017 and has yet to reach its peak. Illumina has been on the lookout for high-growth markets currently in their infancy in an effort to become a pioneering force in other fields.
A good example of this is Illumina’s move on noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT), which has recently gained popularity among patients. The company released an updated and more powerful version of its fetal genome detector system VeriSeq this year. This technology offers the quickest processing time compared to its rivals.
Illumina is also looking to utilize gene sequencing to bolster cancer research efforts and screening through its TruSight Oncology 500, which is a molecular test used to detect lung cancer. Since its release in 2018, the company has been seeking ways to expand TruSight’s application to include blood tests capable of detecting the very early stages of several types of cancer.
Another significant growth driver for Illumina is population genomics, with the United States, France, Singapore, England, and other countries already utilizing the company’s technology. Consumer genomics also shows a promising fiscal advancement for Illumina. To date, the company has been catering to major providers including Ancestry and 23andMe. Illumina even created its own genealogical spinoff called Helix.
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