Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
May 19, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PFIZER’S LATEST COVID-19 VACCINE ENTRY)
(PFE), (BNTX), (MRNA), (INO), (CTLT), (SVA), (EBS), (MYL)
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
May 19, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PFIZER’S LATEST COVID-19 VACCINE ENTRY)
(PFE), (BNTX), (MRNA), (INO), (CTLT), (SVA), (EBS), (MYL)
Clearly, the long-term solution to this health crisis, and possibly the only hope we have to returning to “normal,” is a safe and effective vaccine.
Companies and health experts around the world have stepped up to that challenge, with investors eagerly anticipating the stocks of the businesses to successfully deliver a vaccine to catapult in value overnight.
This is one of the driving forces behind Pfizer’s (PFE) relentless pursuit of a coronavirus vaccine.
Here’s a quick recap of where Pfizer was before this major announcement.
Pfizer was first recognized as an aggressive player in the vaccine race when the healthcare giant partnered with German biotechnology company BioNtech (BNTX).
After months of working together, Pfizer announced that it aims to produce 10 million to 20 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2020.
So far, Pfizer is testing at least four distinct variations of its vaccine called BNT162. The trials will test roughly 360 individuals, with the study expanding to involve thousands of volunteers if one or two variations of the vaccine indicate progress.
Conclusive data will be available in June or July this year. Meanwhile, Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine candidate, co-created with BioNtech, is projected to be ready for launch by October.
In an effort to make room for the production of BNT162, Pfizer decided to outsource the production of some of its own branded products to various manufacturers such as Catalent (CTLT).
This move means that instead of paying contract manufacturers to produce millions of doses of a vaccine that might fail to even leave the warehouse, Pfizer has taken it upon itself to produce BNT162 in its own facilities.
According to the company’s estimates, it will cost approximately $150 million to produce BNT162. Since Pfizer is using its own facilities, it could jumpstart the distribution of up to 20 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine even before 2020 ends.
This move to ramp up the manufacture of an experimental drug candidate is a surprising gamble for Pfizer. However, the possibility of having millions of doses of this potential vaccine ready to ship at a moment’s notice could make it a worthwhile risk.
In terms of competition, Pfizer is racing against several biotechnology companies searching for a COVID-19 vaccine in the US and abroad.
One of them is Moderna (MRNA), which has a $19 billion market cap and funding access worth $2.4 billion including government endowment.
Moderna collaborated with Lona (OTC: LZAGY), which is an international chemical manufacturer, to scale up its production power.
Apart from this, smaller biotechnology companies like Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) and Novavax (NVAX) are involved in the COVID-19 vaccine race as well.
Inovio is backed by its history of vaccine research on the swine flu outbreak in 2009 and the 2013 avian flu.
Novavax, which has a modest market cap of $82.2 million, received government funding worth $4 million to help the company move forward with clinical trials.
Additional financial support was also sent by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. In terms of manufacturing, Novavax has been working with Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) to meet production demands.
Outside the US, two of the frontrunners are Chinese companies CanSino Biologics and Sinovac Biotech (SVA).
The stocks of various micro-cap companies have been on the news since the COVID-19 vaccine race started. Several of these smaller firms used their newfound popularity to boost their stock price and generate additional capital to fund their operations.
I think there are several biotechnology and healthcare companies that warrant following. However, there remains a dearth of data on these companies working on the COVID-19 vaccine. Choosing the best stock from these names at this point demands too much guesswork, an investment strategy I have never endorsed.
The harsh reality is that most of these smaller companies will most probably never manage to get a program off the ground and into a conclusive efficacy trial. The main reasons are limited capital, restricted bandwidth, and lack of will to move forward.
Small companies, particularly in the biotechnology and healthcare sectors, typically lack the money and manpower to efficiently run a program without sacrificing the rest of their R&D efforts. For those companies that manage though, the pace will likely be too slow to actually merit a meaningful place in the market.
Investors looking to invest in the surging COVID-19 vaccine space should turn to companies that hold the greatest odds of success. That means larger and more established companies with global testing, regulatory, and manufacturing capacities.
This is not to dissuade anyone from taking a dip into the small-cap companies pool though.
Rather, I would recommend to simply keep these biotechnology companies on your watch list and see how the situation develops. After all, these are decent stocks on their own right.
Nonetheless, it’s still too early to tell how their long-term business models look like outside the search for a coronavirus vaccine.
In comparison, Pfizer has a proven track record of being a great investment. The company has been showing off a decent dividend growth for 10 consecutive years, reporting an annualized dividend worth $1.52 per share.
More importantly, this biotechnology and healthcare company is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. In 2019 alone, Pfizer introduced six new drugs on the market and shared that it has 95 more in its pipeline.
Keep in mind as well that Pfizer’s current price of roughly $37 per share -- a far cry from its 52-week high that reached $44.56 -- is significantly lower than the industry average at the moment. For a stock that presents such a wealth of opportunities, Pfizer offers significant value to its investors.
Global Market Comments
March 31, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MORE PLAYERS ENTER THE RACE FOR A CORONA CURE)
(MRNA), (ARCT), (JNJ), (SNY), (GOVX), (ALT), (NVAX), (GSK), (GNBT), (VXL.V), (INO), (APDN), (CADILAHC)
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
March 31, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MORE PLAYERS ENTER THE RACE FOR A CORONA CURE)
(MRNA), (ARCT), (JNJ), (SNY), (GOVX), (ALT), (NVAX), (GSK), (GNBT), (VXL.V), (INO), (APDN), (CADILAHC)
Special issue on COVID-19 vaccines: Moderna Inc (MRNA), Arcturus (ARCT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Sanofi (SNY), GeoVax (GOVX), Altimmune (ALT), Novavax (NVAX), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Generex (GNBT), Vaxil Bio (VXL.V), Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO), Applied DNA Sciences (APDN), Zydus Cadila (CADILAHC)
The hunt is definitely underway for potential treatments to fight COVID-19 but coming up with vaccines will take a much longer time.
Since we already have the genetic code of the novel coronavirus (click here for the link), researchers can now use the complete blueprint to come up with ways to defeat this disease.
With code in hand, it takes a supercomputer just three hours to create model vaccines. Then it is just a question of how fast you can make them, if at all. Many proposed models are far beyond our existing technology.
To date, there are roughly 35 companies and academic organizations actively seeking ways to come up with a COVID-19 vaccine. While the process will still take time, there are several promising prospects.
Among the companies working on this, Moderna Inc (MRNA) has been recognized as the first biotechnology company to conduct human trials to test its COVID-19 vaccine in March. The trial includes 45 males and non-pregnant females aged 18 to 55.
Moderna’s vaccine utilizes the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus. Basically, the goal is to build a vaccine out of messenger RNA.
Aside from Moderna, another biotech company called Curevac has been at the forefront of this cutting-edge technology.
In China, RNACure Biopharma has been working with Fudan University and Shanghai JiaoTong University on using the same technique to come up with a vaccine as well.
China’s CDC along with Tongji University and Stermina as well as Duke-NUS in partnership with Arcturus (ARCT) are also using a similar approach.
Although Moderna’s vaccine reached Phase 1 in record time, authorities cautioned that the development time frame is somewhere between 12 and 18 months — and this is even dubbed as an “overly optimistic” timeline.
Meanwhile, there are companies like Sanofi Pasteur (SNY) elected to use previously deployed vaccine platforms in earlier epidemics like SARS.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also decided to employ the same strategy using its Ebola vaccine platform. In fact, JNJ shared that it’ll be ready to conduct human testing of its non-replicating viral vector by November.
Aside from JNJ, another biotechnology company in China called CanSino Biologics (HKG: 6185) in collaboration with the Academy of Military Medical Sciences is utilizing the same technology.
Just last week, Chinese authorities approved CanSino’s Phase 1 clinical trials.
Apart from JNJ and CanSino, other biotechnology companies are also working on a vaccine using the same non-replicating viral vector technology.
The list includes Wuhan’s BravoVax along with GeoVax (GOVX), Altimmune (ALT), Vaxart (VXRT), Greffex, and the University of Oxford.
Another strategy is employed by Novavax (NVAX), which is to construct a “recombinant” vaccine.
In a nutshell, this strategy entails extraction of the genetic code for the protein found on the Sars-CoV-2. This is a part of the virus that can trigger the immune system. This will then be pasted into the genome of a bacterium or yeast.
In effect, this vaccine will force the microorganisms to produce huge quantities of the protein to be able to fight off the virus.
Big biotechnology companies like Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) are following the same technique.
Smaller firms are also in on the action including Generex Biotechnology Corporation (GNBT), Vaxil Bio (VXL.V), EpiVax, and Clover Biopharmaceuticals.
The University of Georgia, Baylor College of Medicine, and the University of Miami are pursuing the same lead as well.
On top of these, several biotechnology companies use a DNA-based approach to come up with a vaccine.
Last March 12, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation provided a $5 million grant to Pennsylvania-based biotech firm Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) to help the company speed up the tests needed for its DNA vaccine called INO-4800.
This is on top of the roughly $9 million in funding it received from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations earlier.
At the moment, INO-4800 is in preclinical studies with plans to push it to Phase 1 clinical trials by April.
Aside from Inovio, Applied DNA Sciences (APDN), Zydus Cadila (CADILAHC), Takis, and Evivax are also pursuing the same strategy.
Despite implementing the most effective and even draconian measures to contain COVID-19, these tactics only managed to slow down the spread of the virus.
With the World Health Organization tagging this situation as a pandemic, everyone has become more desperate in the search for a vaccine because only a vaccine can stop people from getting sick.
However, even the unprecedented speeds afforded, the biotechnology companies couldn’t change the fact that developing a vaccine requires at least a year. It’s crucial to not make mistakes along the way especially since the product could potentially be injected into most of the world’s population.
After all, there’s only a single thing that can be considered worse than a bad virus — and that is a bad vaccine.
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