Global Market Comments
March 6, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY THE DOW IS GOING TO 240,000)
(X), IBM (IBM), (GM), (MSFT), (INTC), (DELL), (NVDA), (NFLX), (AMZN), (META), (GOOGL), (BITO)
Global Market Comments
March 6, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY THE DOW IS GOING TO 240,000)
(X), IBM (IBM), (GM), (MSFT), (INTC), (DELL), (NVDA), (NFLX), (AMZN), (META), (GOOGL), (BITO)
Global Market Comments
December 27, 2023
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL ISSUE ABOUT THE FAR FUTURE
Featured Trade:
(PEAKING INTO THE FUTURE WITH RAY KURZWEIL),
(GOOG), (INTC), (AAPL), (TXN)
This is the most important research piece you will ever read, bar none. But you have to finish it to understand why. So, I will get on with the show.
I have been hammering away at my followers at investment conferences, webinars, and strategy luncheons this year about one recurring theme. Things are good, and about to get better, a whole lot better.
The driver will be the exploding rate of technological innovation in electronics, biotechnology, and energy. The 2020s are shaping up to be another roaring twenties, and asset prices are going to go through the roof.
To flesh out some hard numbers about growth rates that are realistically possible and which industries will be the leaders, I hooked up with my old friend, Ray Kurzweil, one of the most brilliant minds in computer science.
Ray is currently a director of Engineering at Google (GOOG), heading up a team that is developing stronger artificial intelligence. He is an MIT grad, with a double major in computer science and creative writing. He was the principal inventor of the CCD flatbed scanner, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, and the commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.
When he was still a teenager, Ray was personally awarded a science prize by President Lyndon Johnson. He has received 20 honorary doctorates and has authored 7 books. It was upon Ray’s shoulders that many of today’s technological miracles were built.
His most recent book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, was a New York Times best seller. In it, he makes hundreds of predictions about the next 100 years that will make you fall out of your chair.
I met Ray at one of my favorite San Francisco restaurants, Morton’s on Sutter Street. I ordered a dozen oysters; a filet mignon wrapped in bacon, and drowned it all down with a fine bottle of Duckhorn merlot. Ray had a wedge salad with no dressing, a giant handful of nutritional supplements, and a bottle of water. That’s Ray, one cheap date.
The Future of Man
A singularity is defined as a single event that has monumental consequences. Astrophysicists refer to the big bang and black holes in this way. Ray’s singularity has humans and machines merging to become single entities, partially by 2040 and completely by 2100.
All of our thought processes will include built-in links to the cloud, making humans super smart. Skin that absorbs energy from the sun will eliminate the need to eat. Nanobots will replace blood cells, which are far more efficient at moving oxygen. A revolution in biotechnology will enable us to eliminate all medical causes of death.
Most organs can now be partially or completely replaced. Eventually, they all will become renewable by taking one of your existing cells and cloning it into a completely new organ. We will become much more like machines, and machines will become more like us.
The first industrial revolution extended the reach of our bodies, and the second extended the reach of our minds.
And, oh yes, prostitution will be legalized and move completely online. Sounds like a turn-off? How about virtually doing it with your favorite movie star? Your favorite investment advisor? Yikes!
Ironically, one of the great accelerants towards this singularity has been the war in Iraq. More than 50,000 young men and women came home missing arms and legs (in Vietnam these were all fatalities, thanks to the absence of modern carbon fiber body armor).
Generous government research budgets have delivered huge advances in titanium artificial limbs and the ability to control them only with thoughts. Quadriplegics can now hit computer keystrokes merely by thinking about them.
Kurzweil argues that exponentially growing information technology is encompassing more and more things that we care about, like health care and medicine. Reprogramming of biology will be the next big thing and is a crucial part of his “singularity.”
Our bodies are governed by obsolete genetic programs that evolved in a bygone era. For example, over millions of years, our bodies developed genes to store fat cells to protect against a poor hunting season in the following year. That gave us a great evolutionary advantage 10,000 years ago. But it is not so great now, with obesity becoming the country’s number one health problem.
We would love to turn off these genes through reprogramming, confident that the hunting at the supermarket next year will be good. We can do this in mice now, which in experiments can eat like crazy, but never gain weight.
The happy rodents enjoy the full benefits of caloric restriction, with no hint of diabetes or heart disease. A product like this would be revolutionary, not just for us, health care providers, and the government, but, ironically, for fast food restaurants as well.
Within the last five years, we have learned how to reprogram stem cells to rebuild the hearts of heart attack victims. The stem cells are harvested from skin cells, not human embryos, ducking the political and religious issues of the past.
And if we can turn off genes, why not the ones in cancer cells that enable them to pursue unlimited reproduction until they kill its host? That development would cure all cancers and is probably only a decade off.
The Future of Computing
If this all sounds like science fiction, you’d be right. But Ray points out that humans have chronically underestimated the rate of technological innovation.
This is because humans evolved to become linear-thinking animals. If a million years ago we saw a gazelle running from left to right, our brains calculated that one second later it would progress ten feet further to the right. That’s where we threw the spear. This gave us a huge advantage over other animals and is why we became the dominant species.
However, much of science, technology, and innovation grows at an exponential rate and this is where we make our most egregious forecasting errors. Count to seven, and you get to seven. However, double something seven times and you get to a billion.
The history of the progress of communications is a good example of an exponential effect. Spoken language took hundreds of thousands of years to develop. Written language emerged thousands of years ago, books in 100 years, the telegraph in a century, and telephones 50 years later.
Some ten years after Steve Jobs brought out his Apple II personal computer, the growth of the Internet went hyperbolic. Within three years of the iPhone launch, social media exploded out of nowhere.
At the beginning of the 20th century, $1,000 bought 10 X -5th power worth of calculations per second in our primitive adding machines. A hundred years later a grand got you 10 X 8th power calculations, a 10 trillion-fold improvement. The present century will see gains many times this.
The iPhone itself is several thousand times smaller, a million times cheaper, and billions of times more powerful than computers of 40 years ago. That increases the price per performance by the trillions. More dramatic improvements will accelerate from here.
Moore’s law is another example of how fast this process works. Intel (INTC) founder Gordon Moore published a paper in 1965 predicting a doubling of the number of transistors on a printed circuit board every two years. Since electrons had shorter distances to travel, speeds would double as well.
Moore thought that theoretical limits imposed by the laws of physics would bring this doubling trend to an end by 2018 when the gates become too small for the electrons to pass through. For decades I have read research reports predicting that this immutable deadline would bring an end to innovation and technological growth and bring an economic Armageddon.
Ray argues that nothing could be further from the truth. A paradigm shift will simply allow us to leapfrog conventional silicon-based semiconductor technologies and move on to bigger and better things. We did this when we jumped from vacuum tubes to transistors in 1949, and again in 1959, when Texas Instruments (TXN) invented the first integrated circuit.
Paradigm shifts occurred every ten years in the past century, every five years in the last decade, and will occur every couple of years in the 2020s. So fasten your seatbelts!
Nanotechnology has already allowed manufacturers to extend the 2018 Moore’s Law limit to 2022. On the drawing board are much more advanced computing technologies, including calcium-based systems, using the alternating direction of spinning electrons, and nanotubes.
Perhaps the most promising is DNA-based computing, a high research priority at IBM and several other major firms. I earned my own 15 minutes of fame in the scientific world 40 years ago as a member of the first team ever to sequence a piece of DNA, which is why Ray knows who I am.
Deoxyribo Nucleic Acid makes up the genes that contain the programming that makes us who we are. It is a fantastically efficient means of storing and transmitting information. And it is found in every single cell in our bodies, all 10 trillion of them.
The great thing about DNA is that it replicates itself. Just throw it some sugar. That eliminates the cost of building the giant $2 billion silicon-based chip fabrication plants of today.
The entire human genome is a sequential binary code containing only 800 MB of information, which after you eliminate redundancies, has a mere 30-100 MB of useful information, about the size of an off-the-shelf software program, like Word for Windows. Unwind a single DNA molecule, and it is only six feet long.
What this means is that, just when many believe that our computer power is peaking, it is in fact just launching an era of exponential growth. Supercomputers surpassed human brain computational ability in 2012, about 10 to the 16th power (ten quadrillion) calculations per second.
That power will be available on a low-end laptop by 2020. By 2050, this prospective single laptop will have the same computing power as the entire human race, about 9 billion individuals. It will also be small enough to implant in our brains.
The Future of the Economy
Ray is not really that interested in financial markets, or for that matter, making money. Where technology will be in a half-century and how to get us there are what get his juices flowing. However, I did manage to tease a few mind-boggling thoughts from him.
At the current rate of change, the 21st century will see 200 times the technological progress that we saw in the 20th century. Shouldn’t corporate profits, and therefore share prices, rise by as much?
Technology is rapidly increasing its share of the economy, and increasing its influence on other sectors. That’s why tech has been everyone’s favorite sector for the past 30 years and will remain so for the foreseeable future. For two centuries, technology has been eliminating jobs at the bottom of the economy, and creating new ones at the top.
Stock analysts and investors make a fatal flaw in estimating future earnings based on the linear trends of the past, instead of the exceptional growth that will occur in the future.
In the last century, the Dow appreciated from 100 to 10,000, an increase of 100 times. If we grow at that rate in this century, the Dow should increase by 10,000% to 1 million by 2100. But so far, we are up only 6%, even though we are already 14 years into the new century.
The index is seriously lagging but will play catch up in a major way during the 2020s, when economic growth jumps from 2% to 4% or more, thanks to the effects of massively accelerating technological change.
Some 100 years ago, one-third of jobs were in farming, one-third were in manufacturing, and one-third in services. If you predicted then that in a century farming and manufacturing would each be 3% of total employment and that something else unknown would come along for the rest of us, people would have been horrified. But that’s exactly what happened.
Solar energy use is also on an exponential path. It is now 1% of the world’s supply but is only seven doublings away from becoming 100%. Then we will consume only one 10,000th of the sunlight hitting the earth. Geothermal energy offers the same opportunities.
We are only running out of energy if we limit ourselves to 19th-century methods. Energy costs will plummet. Eventually, energy will be essentially free when compared to today’s costs, further boosting corporate profits.
Hypergrowth in technology means that we will be battling with deflation for the rest of the century, as the cost of production and price of everything falls off a cliff. That makes our 10-year Treasury bonds a steal at a generous 2.60% yield, a full 460 basis points over the real long-term inflation rate of negative 2% a year.
US Treasuries could eventually trade down to the 0.40% yields seen in Japan only a couple of years ago. This means that the bull market in bonds is still in its early stages and could continue for decades.
The upshot for all of this these technologies will rapidly eliminate poverty, not just in the US, but around the world. Each industry will need to continuously reinvent its business model or disappear.
The takeaway for investors is that stocks, as well as other asset prices, are now wildly undervalued, given their spectacular future earnings potential. It also makes the Dow target of 1 million by 2100 absurdly low, and off by a factor of 10 or even 100. Will we be donning our “Dow 100 Million” then?
Other Random Thoughts
As we ordered dessert, Ray launched into another stream of random thoughts. I asked for Morton’s exquisite double chocolate mousse. Ray had another handful of supplements. Yep, Mr. Cheap Date.
The number of college students has grown from 50,000 to 12 million since the 1870’s. A kid in Africa with a cell phone has more access to accurate information than the president of the United States did 15 years ago.
The great superpower, the Soviet Union, was wiped out by a few fax machines distributing information in 1991.
Company offices will become entirely virtual by 2025.
Cows are very inefficient at producing meat. In the near future, cloned muscle tissue will be produced in factories, disease-free, and at a fraction of the present cost, without the participation of the animal. PETA will be thrilled.
The use of nanomaterials to build ultra-light but ultra-strong cars cuts fuel consumption dramatically. Battery efficiencies will improve by 10 to 100 times. Imagine powering the Tesla Model S1 with a 10-pound battery! Advances in nanotube construction mean the weight of the vehicle will drop from the present 3 tons to just 100 pounds but will be far safer.
Ray is also on a scientific advisory panel for the US Army. Uncertain about my own security clearance, he was reluctant to go into detail. Suffice it to say that the weight of an M1 Abrams main battle tank will shrink from 70 tons to 1 ton but will be 100 times stronger.
A zero-tolerance policy towards biotechnology by the environmental movement exposes their intellectual and moral bankruptcy. Opposing a technology with so many positive benefits for humankind and the environment will inevitably alienate them from the media and the public, who will see the insanity of their position.
Artificial intelligence is already far more prevalent than you understand. The advent of strong artificial intelligence will be the most significant development of this century. You can’t buy a book from Amazon, withdraw money from your bank, or book a flight, without relying on AI.
Ray finished up by saying that by 2100, humans will have the choice of living in a biological, or in a virtual, online form. In the end, we will all just be files.
Personally, I prefer the former, as the best things in life are biological and free!
I walked over to the valet parking, stunned and disoriented by the mother load of insight I had just obtained, and it wasn’t just the merlot talking, either! Imagine what they talk about at Google all day.
To buy The Singularity is Near at a discount Amazon pricing, please click here. It is worth purchasing the book just to read Ray’s single chapter on the future of the economy.
Global Market Comments
August 24, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(AN INSIDER’S GUIDE TO THE NEXT DECADE OF TECH INVESTMENT),
(AMZN), (AAPL), (NFLX), (AMD), (INTC), (TSLA), (GOOG), (META)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Global Market Comments
March 24, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARCH 22 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(IBB), (INTC), (AMD), (XLU), (NVDA), (TSLA), (FRC), (QQQ), (SPY), (TLT), (UNG), (USO), (VLO), (DINO), (SUN), (FCX), (JPM), (RIVN), (DVN), (LNG), (KMI), (DAL)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the March 22 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA.
Q: I have big losses in biotech (IBB) but am a long-term believer—do you think it will recover?
A: Yes, I do. But we are still looking at the post-COVID hangover, where Biotechs rocketed for about a year. We’re simply coming off that overbought situation. In the meantime, the industry continues to generate groundbreaking discoveries at the fastest rate in history. When those translate into profit-making products, the stocks will perform, and many of them already have.
Q: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) appears to be overbought, what are your thoughts?
A: Yes absolutely, the whole chip sector is overbought, because guess what, they benefit from falling interest rates and an economic recovery. That group will absolutely lead going into the future, and it’s hard to get into—these things just go up in a straight line. Look at Nvidia (NVDA), it has more than doubled since the October low and you barely get pullbacks. It’s looking like Nvidia is going to take over the world; we’d love to get into it but it seems like it will only be a high-risk/high-reward stock. They are now having the tailwind with Chat GPT—which everyone has to own now or go out of business—and buy Nvidia chips to make it work.
Q: Would you recommend banks and brokerages here?
A; Yes, because of the banking crisis, they’ll be the best performers as we come out of it. The end of the interest rate rising cycle is now in sight, and we are about to enter the golden age of banking. Institutions are buying stocks for that now. And your next entry point will be Friday because the pattern has been to sell off everything on Fridays in expectation of a new bank going under on the weekend. If nothing happens, then you have a big rally on Monday morning. So that you can probably play.
Q: Are there recordings of this webinar?
A: Yes, to find all past recordings, just go to www.madhedgefundtrader.com and log in.
Q: When does Intel (INTC) become a buy, if ever?
A: It’s probably a “BUY” right here. You never want to buy a tech company run by a salesman, and that’s what happened with Intel. As soon as you had a salesman guaranteeing he’d turn the company around, the stock dropped by half. So down here, it’s looking more likely that they’ll fire the head of Intel, get an engineer back in charge, and the stock should double. But clearly, it’s the only value left in the semiconductor area.
Q: Would you double up on the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)?
A: Yes, and I'd be doing 2-year (UNG) LEAPS. There’s no way you have an economic recovery over the next two years that will get us a double, triple, or quadruple in the price of natural gas, and (UNG) will catch that move less 35% for the contango (the 1-year differential between front month and one-year futures contracts).
Q: What’s your favorite tech stock to buy on the dip?
A: It has to be Tesla (TSLA). And I’m in the middle of writing a massive opus on the Tesla Investors Day, which included far more news and content than people realize. That's because you have journalists covering investors' day, not engineers. So I’ll get to the engineers’ and scientists view, which is much more interesting.
Q: Buy bitcoin after the financial contagion?
A: No, bitcoin is what you bought at the market top because there was nothing else to buy because everything else was so expensive. Now everything else is cheap when you can buy Apple (AAPL) at $160, Nvidia at $272 (NVDA), or Tesla (TSLA) at $200. Those are far better choices than a purely speculative asset class which you may never see again once you send in your money. That has been the experience of a lot of people.
Q: Should I sell short the Utility ETF (XLU) if investors head into growth stocks?
A: No, utilities are very heavy borrowers with big capital requirements, and also will benefit heavily from falling interest rates. Basically, everything goes up on an economic recovery. So, your short ideas were great a year ago, not so much now. Now we’re looking for long plays, and just a few hedges, like in bonds, to control risk.
Q: What's the net entry point for Freeport McMoRan (FCX)?
A: I would say here, and my target for this year for Freeport is at the very least hitting $50 again; someday we hit $100, once we get another ramp-up for EV production and the demand for copper sores accordingly.
Q: I hear China has a battery that will go 600 miles and is coming soon.
A: Tesla has a battery that will go 1,000 miles now, but it can only be recharged once. It turns out that the military is very interested in using these, converting Humvees to EVs; then you could parachute them charged batteries which you just pop in. That eliminates having to move these giant bladders of gasoline which easily explode. So yes, the 1,000-mile battery has actually been around for 10 years but can’t be mass-produced. That is the issue.
Q: How will Tesla deal with hydrogen?
A: It will ignore it. Hydrogen will never go mainstream—it can’t compete with an existing electric power grid. But there are fleet or utility applications that make sense; so other than a small, limited fleet confined to a local area, I don't see hydrogen ever catching up. And Saudi Arabia can easily convert their entire oil supply into hydrogen to create a “green” carbon-free fuel. Remember, the cost of electric power cars is dropping dramatically—at about 20% a year—so hydrogen has to keep up with that too which they’re not.
Q: Please explain a bank LEAPS.
A: You buy a call option, you sell short a call option higher up, and you do it with a maturity of one year longer, or more. That’s what makes it a LEAPS. If you want more details, just go to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, and search LEAPS and a full explanation of how to execute these will come up.
Q: What do you think of Rivian (RIVN)?
A: It’s a long-term play—they got knocked down by half on their latest $1.2 billion capital raise, which everybody knew was coming, but still seemed to surprise some traders. It’s a long-term hold, not a short term trade. That said, it’s tempting to do LEAPS on Rivian right here going out two years. The stock is down 95% from the highs.
Q: What level LEAPS do you do on JP Morgan (JPM)?
A: I sent that out to everybody last week—that would be to buy the $130 call option and sell short the $135 call option for January of 2024. That way the stock only has to go up 4% for you to make a 100% return on that investment. That’s why we love LEAPS.
Q: I had First Republic Bank (FRC) at $30, took a bath, and got rid of it. Should I have held on?
A: Yes. There's nothing wrong with First Republic's business, and that’s what's new in all of this current round of bank failures—the assets are fine. Usually when a bank goes under it’s because they extended too many dubious loans that defaulted. First Republic not only has a great loan book, but a great asset base in high-net-worth individuals. This is not a bank you would normally expect to go under. Which is why private banks are pouring money into it to save it. I’d be a buyer at the $10 level if we get down that far again. And I actually bought a little bit of First Republic myself on Monday, the meltdown day at $15, with the theory that it will get bailed out and the stock goes up ten times.
Q: Would you do vertical credit spreads on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Fund (SPY) or Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) with the $2 spread?
A: No, the big money is made on single stocks, which have double or triple the volatility of indexes, and you know which single stocks to buy right now—the ones that just had a big selloff. You want more volatility at market bottoms, not less; and I would recommend doing all the financial and call spreads and LEAPS right here. They will have higher volatility and deliver much better risk/reward ratios. That is basic trading 101: you short indexes on the way down, you buy single stocks on the way up. That's what every hedge fund worth its salt does.
Q: Do you have an opinion on Zero Days to Expiration causing greater volatility?
A: Absolutely, it is—especially on Fridays. And I'm not doing these because they are basically lottery tickets. But, if it's a coin toss on whether you make money or not, and you write off the bad ones and make a nice profit on the good ones, that could be a profitable trade. I actually have several followers experimenting with that type of strategy, so I'll let you know if they make any money on it.
Q: What do you think about oil in this environment?
A: It’s discounting a recession which is never going to happen; so oil and oil plays are probably a good trade here, especially with front-month calls. I would be going for Valero Energy (VLO) and the refiners like Sinclair (DINO) and Sunoco (SUN), rather than the big producers because they have already had big moves which they have held onto mostly. Expect oil to go up—I’d be buying the commodity here (USO) and I’d be buying the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG).
Q: What's the maximum downside in the next 30 days?
A: Well I showed you on that S&P 500 (SPY) chart at the beginning—$350 is the worst-case scenario with a deep recession, and that assumes the banking crisis doesn’t go away and gets worse. I think the banking crisis is done and getting better so we won’t test the downside, but the unanticipated can happen, so you have to be ready for anything. The non-recessionary low looks to be $375.
Q: What if you can’t do spreads in an IRA, like for iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)?
A: Just buy the (TLT) outright, or buy it on 2:1 margin. (TLT) is probably a great buy around 100 or 101. ProShares has the 2X long Ultra Treasury ETF (UBT), but the fees are high, the spreads are wide, and the tracking error is large, as is standard for these kinds of instruments.
Q: When taking a position in LEAPS, how do you decide the position size per holding?
A: I send out all the LEAPS assuming one contract, then you can adjust your size according to your own experience level and risk tolerance. Keep in mind that if I’m wrong on everything, the value of all LEAPS goes to zero, so it may not be for you. On the other hand, if I am right on my one-year and two-year views, all these LEAPS will deliver a 100-120% return. You decide.
Q: Are you expecting a seasonal rally in oil?
A: Yes I am, and we’re coming off very low levels. Buy the United States Oil ETF (USO) and buy the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG).
Q: Is a recession still on the table with all the banking crises?
A: No, if anything, it brings the end of any possibility of a recession because it’s bringing interest rate cuts sooner than expected, which brings a recovery that’s sooner than expected. And that’s why you’re getting interest-rate-sensitive stocks holding here and starting to rally.
Q: My retirement account won’t let me buy (UNG)—Are there any other good companies I can buy?
A: Yes, Devon Energy (DVN) is big in the gas area. So are Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Kinder Morgan (KMI).
Q: If the market is oversupplied with oil, why is gasoline so expensive?
A: Endless middlemen add-ons. This is one of the greatest continuing rip-offs in human history—gasoline prices always take the elevator up and the escalator down, it’s always that way. And that's how oil companies make money—by squeezing consumers. I’ve been tracking it for 50 years and that’s my conclusion. The State of California has done a lot of research on this and learned that only half of their higher prices are from taxes to pay for roads and the other half comes from a myriad of markups. Also, a lot of businessmen just don’t want to be in the gasoline retailing business and will only enter when the returns are very high. Plus, oil companies are trying to milk companies for all their worth right now because the industry may disappear in 10 years. Go electric, that’s my solution. I haven’t bought gasoline for 13 years, except for my kids. I only buy cars for my kids at junkyards and fix them up. If they want to do better they can go out and earn it.
Q: Do we need to worry about China supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine?
A: Not really, because all we have to do to cut off Chinese supplies for Russia is to cut off trade with China, and their economy will completely collapse. China knows this, so they may do some token support for Russia like send them sweatshirts or something like that. If they start a large arms supply, which they could, then the political costs and the trade costs would be more than it’s worth. And at the end of the day, China has no principles, it really is only interested in itself and its own people and will do business with anybody.
Q: What do you think about the recovery in solar?
A: What’s been going on in solar is very interesting because for the last 20 years, solar has moved one to one with oil. So, you would expect that from collapsing oil prices and more price competition from oil, solar would collapse too. Instead, solar has had tremendous moves up and is close to highs for the year. The difference has to be the Biden alternative energy subsidies, which are floating the entire industry and accelerating the entire conversion of the United States to an all-electric economy. So they've had great runs. I wouldn’t get involved here, but it’s nice to contemplate what this means for the long-term future of the country.
Q: Should I buy the airline stocks here?
A: Yes, I’d go for Delta (DAL). Again, it’s one of the sectors that’s discounting a recession that’s not going to happen. They’re going to have the biggest airline boom ever this summer as the reopening trade continues on for another year, and a lot of pent-up travel demand hits the market.
Q: Do you like platinum?
A: I do—not because of EVs but because of hydrogen. You need platinum for hydrogen fuel cells to work. That’s a brand new demand, and there’s supposed to be a shortage of half a million ounces of platinum this year.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH or TECHNOLOGY LETTER, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
September 23, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SEPTEMBER 21 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (INTC), (NVDA), (AMD), (MU) (TBT), (TLT), (AMGN),
(VIX), (CHPT), (TSLA), (GS), (BAC), (MS), (JPM), (USO), (TLT)
Global Market Comments
August 2, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN INSIDER’S GUIDE TO THE NEXT DECADE OF TECH INVESTMENT),
(AMZN), (AAPL), (NFLX), (AMD), (INTC), (TSLA), (GOOG), (META)
Global Market Comments
July 30, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 28 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (CRSP), (TLT), (TBT), (BABA), (BIDU), (FXI), (RAD), (TSLA), (NASD), (NKLA), (NIO), (INTC), (MU), (NVDA), (AMD), (TSM), (VXX), (XVZ), (SVXY), (FCX), (ROM), (SPG)
Global Market Comments
July 21, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN INSIDER’S GUIDE TO THE NEXT DECADE OF TECH INVESTMENT),
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