Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 17, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(COMPROMISE IS THE BEST STRATEGY)
(JNJ), (AMGN), (TAK), (VRTX), (CRSP), (EDIT), (PFE), (CRBU), (SGMO), (LLY), (AXSM)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 17, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(COMPROMISE IS THE BEST STRATEGY)
(JNJ), (AMGN), (TAK), (VRTX), (CRSP), (EDIT), (PFE), (CRBU), (SGMO), (LLY), (AXSM)
An optimist looks at bubbles and visualizes champagne, while a pessimist’s mind goes to Alka-Seltzer. The same thing happens with investors.
Some believe that the steep losses suffered by stocks and bonds in 2022 are a much-needed “cleansing,” which would set the stage for renewed partnerships and collaborations along with high returns. Others simply view it as the first chapter in a protracted bear market.
Meanwhile, a handful believes that it’s a combination of both perspectives—especially for the biotechnology industry.
Roughly two years following the decline of biotechnology stocks, several executives from small and midsize organizations finally concede that their share prices might no longer be able to bounce back anytime soon. In fact, some have been fielding panicked calls from execs of fledgling biotech firms, offering to sell their companies at a discount.
The alteration in the medical device and biotechnology landscape only started a few months before the previous year ended.
This is because, before the change in perspective, when the SPDR S&P Biotech exchange-traded fund (XBI) had slid by about 40% from its 2021 peak, many leaders in the biotech sector still believed that their companies could regain momentum.
The primary concern for smaller biotech and medical devices companies, which allocate years to developing and testing products without any commercially approved treatment, is that the continuous decline in their valuations has made it practically impossible to generate new money to fund any of their projects.
Given this scenario, many small and midsize biotechs would go under soon, particularly those with no data strong enough to provide near-term growth catalysts.
This is where Big Pharma names are expected to come in. After all, these large-cap companies offer an alternative option with their non-dilutive sources of funding and ever-growing war chests.
Big companies, though, have been more cautious in cutting big checks for acquisitions. Despite the high expectations last year, we only saw a few massive deals, including Abiomed’s sale to Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) for $19 billion and Amgen’s (AMGN) $30 billion agreement with Horizon Therapeutics.
Instead, these Big Pharma companies appear to prefer partnerships and collaborations. In these deals, they give out smaller payments to biotechnology firms to work with them on specific early-stage programs.
This type of investment seems to be a safer bet for big companies because it allows them to make several deals without spending too much. They can even collaborate with competing biotechs to determine which could develop the most effective and cost-efficient solution.
Smaller biotechs benefit from this type of deal as well.
In the pre-pandemic era, the valuations of these companies quickly soared based on the potential of their pipeline candidates. Some share prices would skyrocket with just a hint of positive data. This is no longer the case these days, not only because investors have become more discerning but also more anxious over experimental programs.
So instead of getting acquired, smaller biotechs can choose to strike partnerships with large-cap companies. This is an excellent way to inject some funding into their programs and, hopefully, provide them with revenue streams, especially since Big Pharma companies know how to market new products.
It sounds challenging, but a genuinely promising program could fetch a large sum.
Perhaps the most significant indicator that not all hope is lost comes from Takeda (TAK) when it purchased an experimental treatment undergoing tests as a potential psoriasis medication.
This candidate, developed by a privately held biotechnology firm called Nimbus Therapeutics, was sold for a whopping $4 billion upfront, plus roughly $2 billion more for future milestone payments. And here’s the clincher: Takeda got the experimental drug by a razor-thin margin.
In terms of acquisitions, some larger companies have been open to that route. For instance, AstraZeneca (AZN) shelled out $1.3 billion for CiniCor Pharma, while Ipsen (IPSEY) purchased Albireo Pharma (ALBO) for $1 billion.
While the future for smaller biotechs remains uncertain, several names continue to be in conversations whenever acquisitions are discussed.
There’s Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), which has long been reported to take interest in acquiring CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Editas Medicine (EDIT), with the latter looking more attractive thanks to its cheaper price tag.
Meanwhile, Pfizer (PFE) has been shopping around for a biotech to bolster its gene-editing programs, and so far, Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) are under serious consideration.
With its continuing interest in central nervous system diseases, such as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, Eli Lilly (LLY) has been aggressive in its search for a company to acquire. Among the strongest candidates is Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM).
With this daunting reality setting in, one thing has become absolutely sure: the biotechnology sector has become a buyer’s market for big companies with cash to spare for acquisitions and collaborations.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 12, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ALL HAIL THE KINGS)
(ABBV), (JNJ), (ABT), (BDX), (SNY), (BMY)
What is the most exclusive category of dividend stocks? The first answer that comes to mind is the Dividend Aristocrats. These are S&P 500 members that have boosted their dividends consecutively for 25 years.
However, there is another more elite category of dividend stocks that gets less attention: the Dividend Kings.
Although they do not need to be part of the S&P 500, Dividend Kings gain this title by achieving an ultramarathon-like streak—a minimum of 50 years of consecutive payout growth.
However, buying shares of Dividend Kings is not a move for some types of investors. Several of these stocks tend to deliver relatively low growth. Some of these Dividend Kings have been underperforming in the past 10 years.
So, why should you consider investing in Dividend Kings?
Companies under this elite category can be an excellent component of any investor’s retirement portfolio or for those looking for reliable sources of income. Truth be told, most of these businesses offer dividend yields that are notably higher than the average dividend yield recorded by members of the S&P 500.
The consistency and dependability of these Dividend Kings in terms of paying out and boosting their dividend payouts also offer a certain degree of confidence for investors relying on income generated by the dividend stocks they added to their portfolio.
Only a few businesses make it to this category. Two segments comprise a significant part of the Dividend Kings category: the consumer goods sector, with 12 companies, and the industrial sector, with 14. Five utility stocks made it to the list as well.
Rounding up the list are four names from the healthcare industry: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Becton, Dickinson & Co. (BDX), and AbbVie (ABBV).
AbbVie only recently celebrated its 10th birthday after its monumental spinoff from Abbott back in 2013. In each of the past 10 years, this healthcare giant has hiked its dividend.
To date, the payout has risen by a whopping 270%, all but guaranteeing its standing as a Dividend King—a title it inherited from Abbott.
At the moment, the forward dividend yield of AbbVie is somewhere north of 3.6%, paying out approximately 73.7% of its earnings as dividends.
As expected, this relatively high payout ratio has some investors anxious over the wisdom of sustained hikes. After all, a sharp downturn in earnings could easily demand the company to pay out more in terms of dividends compared to how much its earnings rake in.
Nonetheless, it is critical to put everything in the proper context.
The competitors of the company, such as JNJ, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), and Sanofi (SNY), all have reported payout ratios of over 60%. That means AbbVie is hardly alone in this strategy of having a somewhat limited overhead to sustain its decision to continue hiking dividends even in the absence of earnings growth.
Apart from the $57.8 billion in revenue the company generated in the trailing 12 months, AbbVie estimates that two of its newer treatments, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, would rake in more than $15 billion in annual sales by 2025. With nine more candidates submitted for regulatory approval for 2023 alone, it is clear that AbbVie has been working hard to ensure that it creates additional new revenue streams in the near term.
As long as AbbVie continues to commercialize new products and work to develop and broaden the approved indications for its existing treatments to expand the reach of its addressable markets, then it is reasonable to believe that the company’s earnings will continue to climb.
It’s highly likely that most of the Dividend Kings will remain on the list this 2023. For one, there is immense pressure on businesses that have boosted their dividends for 50-plus years to sustain the streak. Besides, no CEO would want to be known as the leader who broke an impressive track record.
As for AbbVie, this stock is an excellent addition to the portfolio of long-investors and those searching for more sources of income. Buy the dip.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 29, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A PROMISING START TO 2023)
(JNJ), (PFE), (MRNA), (ABMD)
Investors will be grateful to finally leave 2022 behind as the markets weathered a challenging year. For 2023, we can anticipate much of the same, at least in the first six months, which is why it’s crucial to fill your portfolio with high-quality blue-chip stocks.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fits this description.
With $469 billion in market capitalization, JNJ is the biggest drugmaker across the globe, easily surpassing its peers by over $100 billion. Its product portfolio is practically unrivaled, with the company catching up in the COVID-19 vaccine race and matching the pace of Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA). More importantly, the company has more than a dozen treatments that are on pace to go beyond $1 billion in sales this 2022.
In the third quarter of 2022, JNJ’s revenue climbed by 1.94% year-over-year to reach $23.79 billion, beating Wall Street estimates by $357.93 million. The company also started to spend more on R&D, particularly for the expansion of its medtech sector.
Recently, JNJ closed the deal to acquire Abiomed (ABMD), a leader in the manufacture of heart pump solutions, to boost its medtech segment.
This acquisition is in line with JNJ’s plan to separate its consumer products division from its pharmaceutical and medtech segments. The addition of Abiomed aligns with JNJ’s plan to integrate a smart data approach in the creation and development of new drugs. The company is also looking into leveraging new technology to bolster its medical device division.
After the split is completed, JNJ is projected to become a $60 billion biopharmaceutical entity by 2025. The primary growth drivers would be its major brands and strategic product launches. Meanwhile, the medtech segment is expected to rack up sales as well since its growth will no longer be hampered by the consumer health division, which typically faces litigations.
Specifically, Abiomed will bring its lead product, Impella, to JNJ’s pipeline, which would be an excellent addition to its cardiovascular devices portfolio. This would be a promising revenue stream for the company since the cardiovascular devices market is estimated to climb at a CAGR of 6.9%. It is projected to expand from a market size worth $54.08 billion in 2021 to $86.27 billion by 2028.
As for Impella, this smart implantable pump is anticipated to rake in more than $3.8 billion in revenue by 2031.
The split is a good business decision for JNJ. In the nine months leading to October 2022, pharmaceutical sales were noted to be at their peak at $39.4 billion. JNJ also unveiled more innovative therapeutics in this segment, including CAR-T meds and gene therapies, on top of expanded indications for well-established treatments and investigational drugs.
Some of the treatments poised for potential blockbuster status in 2023 are oncology drugs Darzalex, pulmonary hypertension medication Opsumit, immunology treatment Remicade, and cardiovascular drug Xarelto. The company also submitted multiple myeloma treatment Talquetamab for regulatory approval next year.
Apart from these, JNJ is expected to unveil at least 14 more new treatments that hold a sales potential of over $1 billion each. Meanwhile, half of the candidates are projected to rake in $5 billion or more in sales.
In comparison, the consumer health segment recorded $11.1 billion, indicating a 1.1% slide year over year.
These reports show why the news of the company's split comes as a relief for many of its investors, especially in light of how impressive its pharmaceutical business has been performing as of late. Considering that JNJ is in dire need of evolving while integrating groundbreaking technology, keeping its pharmaceutical and medtech segments tied to its consumer health division would inevitably drag sales down.
Overall, JNJ remains an excellent choice for those looking for high-quality stocks to add to their portfolio. However, it would be advisable to buy after the split. This is because the share price would most likely drop by then, offering us the chance to invest in a company geared towards the medtech and pharmaceutical space.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 13, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A LONGER-TERM INVESTMENT FOR PATIENT BIOTECH HOLDERS)
(AMGN), (HZNP), (JNJ), (SNY), (ABBV)
Amgen (AMGN) announced what could be the biggest M&A deal in the biotechnology world this 2022.
The giant biotech disclosed its deal to acquire Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP) for $27.8 billion in cash, amounting to roughly $116.50 per share which is quite a move for Amgen. Prior to this, Amgen was engaged in an aggressive bidding war against fellow bigwigs Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Sanofi (SNY).
While they is a massive company with a market capitalization of $140 billion, shelling out $27.8 billion is still a significant risk.
Aside from that, Horizon is based in Ireland; Irish takeover rules Amgen and its competitors needed to comply with repeated disclosure of its key documents throughout the course of the negotiations.
This begs the question: Why was Horizon so sought-after by some of the biggest names in the biotechnology and healthcare world?
One reason is that all companies, regardless of size, need a blockbuster—and this doesn’t spare Amgen and its peers.
Actually, Amgen has been preparing for patent expirations of some of its top-selling drugs for years. By 2030, the company would be dealing with the threat of a very serious decline in revenue of key products Otezla and Enbrel. When that comes, these two blockbusters would need to battle it out with the slew of generics and biosimilars raring to compete with their market share.
Meanwhile, Enbrel, which is projected to rake in $4.1 billion in revenue in 2022, will face biosimilar competition as early as 2023. Its main and biggest rival, AbbVie’s (ABBV) Humira, will lose patent exclusivity next year. That opens the floodgates for biosimilars and generics, pushing back against Enbrel’s share of the market while attempting to take over Humira’s.
Looking at how much these blockbusters contribute to Amgen, it’s projected that $10 billion or approximately 40% of the company’s revenue could be lost by the end of the decade.
This is where Horizon comes in.
The most crucial among Horizon’s products is Tepezza, which targets a rare condition know as thyroid eye disease. Based on its performance since getting launched in 2020, this drug is estimated to rake in roughly $2 billion in 2022.
Another potential blockbuster from Horizon is Krytexxa, which was developed for uncontrolled gout, and is projected to record $706 million in sales this year.
The third potential blockbuster is Uplinza, which targets an autoimmune disease called neuromyelitis optics spectrum disorder. This product is anticipated to reach $159 million in sales in 2022.
These three could bring in roughly $3.3 billion in revenue for 2023.
Based on the company’s pipeline and portfolio, it can add $2 to $5 billion of new product sales from 2024 to 2030. Needless to say, this would offset the patent cliffs faced by Amgen.
In terms of pipeline, Horizon has several of promising candidates as well. In 2021, the company acquired a biotech named Viela Bio. At that time, the smaller company’s candidates focused on inflammatory diseases and are valued at $3.1 billion.
On top of these, Horizon’s pipeline has candidates targeting rare diseases like myasthenia gravis, lupus, and Sjogren’s Syndrome. With Amgen’s size, experience, and resources, the development of these products would most likely be accelerated.
Originally, Horizon’s strategy was to keep buying clinical-stage treatments from smaller biotechs then pushing them through to commercial approval. Since then, it has transformed into a company that develops its own candidates targeting rare diseases and lucrative markets. Given its portfolio and pipeline, Horizon seamlessly fits with Amgen’s strategy.
Overall, this acquisition is an excellent deal for both companies.
While Amgen shareholders shouldn’t expect any significant increase in dividends any time soon or substantial share buybacks, it’s reasonable to believe that the company is poised for more growth in the coming years.
This makes Amgen a worthwhile buy for longer-term investors who are committed to staying with the company until 2030 or longer.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 22, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE STOCK THAT KEEPS ON GIVING)
(MRK), (JNJ), (PFE), (IMG), (ABBV), (AZN)
Although the broader market has been experiencing the worst year in a very long time, some businesses still manage to deliver excellent results.
One of them is Merck (MRK).
This biotechnology and healthcare giant has been defying gravity this 2022. While the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) has slid by quite a substantial margin this year, with the likes of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Pfizer (PFE) succumbing to the pressure, Merck bucked the trend. Its shares have been up by 31% since early January.
Amid the economic and financial crises, Merck remains a promising stock with a number of factors going its way. More importantly, there is a high probability that it can sustain its momentum regardless of what happens to the broader market or the economy.
Merck’s determination to keep this momentum has once again become apparent in its recent announcement.
Earlier this week, the biotech giant disclosed that it would acquire a biopharmaceutical company called Imago BioSciences (IMG) for $1.35 billion.
This would translate to $36 in cash for every share of Imago, which is about twice its recent closing price of $17.40. The deal is anticipated to be completed by March 2023.
Like its large competitors, Merck also has a portfolio of treatments that continue to aid in the growth of its top and bottom lines.
In the third quarter of this year, the biotech’s revenue climbed by 14% year-over-year to reach roughly $15 billion. Meanwhile, its adjusted net income was $4.7 billion, showing a 4% increase compared to the same period in 2021.
Among its products, Merck has been most closely associated with the cancer drug Keytruda. So far, this treatment is on track to rake in $20 billion in net sales this year alone.
In fact, it’s expected to surpass AbbVie’s (ABBV) Humira as the top-selling drug by 2026.
With Keytruda’s patent exclusivity lasting until 2028, Merck has more than sufficient time to prepare for it. Moreover, that means the company can still rely on Keytruda as a strong growth driver for at least five more years.
However, astute investors would point out Merck’s reliance on Keytruda and the risks that come with this arrangement. With the mega-blockbuster’s $5.4 billion net sales, which comprised 36.3% of Merck’s $15 billion total sales in the third quarter, this is a legitimate concern.
It should be noted that Keytruda isn’t the only promising moneymaking treatment in Merck’s portfolio.
One of its promising treatments is its collaboration with AstraZeneca (AZN), which resulted in another cancer medicine called Lynparza. Another is Merck’s HPV vaccines, which continue to rise at a good pace. Finally, the company’s vaccine portfolio has been expanding, with its pneumococcal vaccine recently gaining approval.
Most of its therapies and even its vaccine franchises are on pace to surpass at least $1 billion in net sales this 2022. Needless to say, Merck has been successful in its quest to become more than just a cancer therapy leader.
On top of these, another good reason to take Merck into consideration is its dividend yield.
Merck’s current dividend yield is at 2.8%, which outpaces the 1.6% average yield of the S&P 500. Aside from its top-selling products and robust pipeline that easily support this payout, the company’s dividend is well-covered as well.
Overall, Merck is one of the handful of companies across all industries that has been breaking the norm of poor stock performance in this highly challenging year.
The company can offer a strong shield for wary investors as we deal with the onset of yet another recession. Not only is this biotechnology and healthcare company part of a naturally defensive sector, but its outlook also remains positive amid the issues plaguing the world.
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