Global Market Comments
July 17, 2019
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL BIOTECH ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(FIVE BIOTECH STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),
(SPY), (VRTX), (JNJ), (ISRG), (CELG), (BMY), (AMGN), (ILMN)
Global Market Comments
July 17, 2019
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL BIOTECH ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(FIVE BIOTECH STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),
(SPY), (VRTX), (JNJ), (ISRG), (CELG), (BMY), (AMGN), (ILMN)
No sector has been beaten, maligned, and abused more than the biotech sector in recent years. However, some of them are so bad they’ve become good, which piques my interest.
Investing in biotech stocks is not for the faint of heart. The road to developing and commercializing new drugs is long and riddled with hard battles, and an anxious investor won’t be able to sleep at night.
However, the returns offer incredible gains when everything falls into place. In this sector you’re almost buying lottery tickets rather than investing in shares.
In 1919, the term "biotechnology" was coined by a Hungarian agricultural engineer named Karl Ereky to define the merging of two industries: biology and technology. Almost a century later, Ereky's vision has been realized with thousands of products and services available in the biotech market today.
Despite the advancements of this industry though, the majority of the buy-and-hold investors choose to steer clear of biotech stocks -- and for sensible reasons.
It's no secret that investing in biotechnology firms can be unnervingly risky. Since its advent, investors have been regaled with horror stories of costly stage three drug trials going bust or plummeting stock prices due to the expiration of critical patents. Needless to say, these stories have soured would-be investors on the whole biotech world.
However, inadequate information and a lack of understanding of how the biotech industry really operates along with reliance on the performance of only a handful of biotech stocks may have caused investors to miss out on attractive risk-reward relationships. Not all biotech investments lead to disastrous results.
You may be surprised to learn that shares of the biotech industry has collectively gone up by approximately 70% in the past five years. This proves just how much these biotech companies rewarded their enduring. Success in biotech investing is simply a matter of buckling down to do your homework and applying a tad of common sense.
Throughout this decade, one sector has managed to outperform the S&P 500 index (SPY) in terms of total return annually: the healthcare sector. While there's no guarantee that healthcare stocks will go on to beat the S&P 500 in the years to come, the fact remains that people will continue to need medicines as well as healthcare services regardless of the country's economic status. The increasing reliance of the healthcare industry on technology has put the biotech industry smack dab in the center of all these demands.
I’ll give you some of my favorite plays in the sector.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Big-cap pharmaceutical company Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc currently has the monopoly on the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) with three approved drugs out in the market, Kalydeco, Orkambi, and Symdeko, along with several promising products in the pipeline to target other auto-immune diseases.
In June, Vertex turned its sights on the genetic therapy part of the business via an expansion of its ongoing collaboration with CRISPR Therapeutics (CSPR). Vertex also purchased gene therapy firm Exonics Therapeutics to strengthen its foothold in this revolutionary technology.
Given the spectacular success of Vertex with CF treatments, its work with gene therapy is projected to bring in another blockbuster deal to the company. To ensure its monopoly in the CF market, Vertex has been aggressively seeking additional regulatory approvals to cater to younger CF patients. If the company succeeds, its target market of 75,000 CF patients would gain an additional 44,000.
Vertex is not limiting its efforts in this field though. To seal its position as the leader in CF treatments, the company is looking at developing triple-drug therapies as the next big development in their treatment plans. It has been performing clinical trials on three varying triple-drug combinations. If approved, these therapies would be able to address approximately 90% of the total number of CF patients.
As for the remaining 10% with no operational CF treatment, Vertex aims to address this via its work on gene editing alongside CRISPR Therapeutics. Aside from CF, the two companies have commenced clinical studies on applying gene-editing therapies to treat rare blood diseases and sickle cell disease.
Overall, Vertex is a certified outperformer in the world of big-cap biotech and provides good value to its shareholders.
Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is one of the most attractive names in the biotech space. While the lawsuits against it involving alleged toxic baby powder endanger (JNJ)’s equity, the company is still hailed as one of the most notable innovators in the healthcare ecosystem.
The company recently disclosed its progress in developing an AIDS vaccine. Although the negative headlines about the company can be a cause of concern to some, it could turn out to be a win-win situation for long-term investors who can then take advantage of the bargain basement stock price.
(JNJ) has reinforced its stronghold in the fields of neuroscience, oncology, and immunology with these three areas generating over 72% of the company’s drug sales in the first quarter. In fact, (JNJ) recently received an FDA approval on its myeloma drug Dexamethasone. Its collaborative work on cancer treatment with Celgene’s (CELG) Revlimid and its own Darzalex received the FDA’s green light as well.
Apart from developing new treatments and medications, (JNJ) is also moving forward in the development of its robotic sector. Earlier this year, the company purchased robotic surgery firm Auris Health for $3.4 billion in an effort to dethrone the current sector leader Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).
With all that is in its drug and services pipeline along with its earlier successes, (JNJ) raised its 2019 outlook despite its legal woes. The biopharma giant now anticipates a sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5%. Meanwhile, its adjusted earnings per share now stands somewhere in the range of $8.53 and $8.63 per share.
Celgene (CELG)
Celgene (CELG) is one biotech stock that you can get on the cheap. It offers shares trading at only 7.4 times expected earnings.
With its shares trading well below the total book value courtesy of the pending acquisition by Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), investors would be hard-pressed not to take advantage of the opportunity to add a company leading in the development of treatments for cancer, blood disorders, and immunological conditions.
Aside from the looming acquisition, another reason for Celgene’s dirt-cheap stock involves the decision to sell blockbuster immunology drug Otezla to allow Bristol-Myers Squibb to appease the Federal Trade Commission’s concerns over the deal. Nonetheless, Celgene’s remaining drugs still perform well in the market.
Its blood cancer drugs, Revlimid and Pomalyst, are the leading go-to drug for multiple myeloma. Revlimid has been approved to treat two additional rare blood diseases, myelodysplastic syndromes and mantle cell lymphoma. Another winner in Celgene’s lineup is its solid tumor drug Abraxane, which has been approved for advanced breast cancer treatment along with non-small-cell lung cancer and advanced pancreatic cancer.
Celgene’s pipeline is loaded with promising winners as well, with myelofibrosis drug Fedratinib and multiple sclerosis treatment Ozanimod up for FDA approval this year. Three additional blood disease drugs including Luspatercept are also in the works along with a cell therapy called Liso-cel, which engineers the body’s immune cells to target particular types of cancer. Celgene’s work with Bluebird Bio is expected to bring another cell therapy procedure called bb2121, which is anticipated to bolster the biopharma firm’s dominance on the multiple myeloma market.
Amgen (AMGN)
With its ability to flex its financial muscles at will, Amgen (AMGN) has accumulated nearly $30 billion in cash and investments. In the past four years, it has recorded an average annual net profit of roughly $6 billion.
The company has achieved tremendous success in developing groundbreaking technology and edging out its competition courtesy of its innovative treatments like the post-chemo therapy called Neulasta. Its cholesterol drug Repatha and arthritis medication Enbrel are both impressive performers in the market as well.
Despite its aggressive drive to acquire small biopharma firms, Amgen is actually a pretty safe investment. Throughout the years, the company has made a conscious effort to diversify its portfolio to steer clear of dependence on a single product.
In fact, no single drug provides more than one-fourth of Amgen’s total income. Among its products, only two drugs generate over a tenth of its revenue. This pattern of revenue diversity doesn’t stop here either as Amgen’s pipeline has nine Phase 3 trials and an additional five Phase 2 trials.
Illumina (ILMN)
One of the incredible developments in healthcare involves the unlocking of the secrets of the human genome – and Illumina (ILMN) has been widely recognized as the leader in this field. In fact, this company has performed more than 90% of all gene sequencing procedures ever recorded.
Branded as the “gold standard” for gene sequencing, Illumina’s highly accurate technology has turned the company into one of the leaders in the biotech space. Illumina is projected to dominate the industry for a very long time.
More importantly, Illumina has managed to make these treatments affordable. Using Illumina’s technology, the cost of human genome therapy has been remarkably cut from a staggering $100 million back in 2002 to an affordable $1,000 today.
Despite its potential, Illumina released lower-than-expected revenue guidance for this year. However, its track record indicates that the company has the tendency to underpromise but overdeliver.
Its revolutionary gene sequencing equipment NovaSeq has made remarkable progress since its availability in 2017 and has yet to reach its peak. Illumina has been on the lookout for high-growth markets currently in their infancy in an effort to become a pioneering force in other fields.
A good example of this is Illumina’s move on noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT), which has recently gained popularity among patients. The company released an updated and more powerful version of its fetal genome detector system VeriSeq this year. This technology offers the quickest processing time compared to its rivals.
Illumina is also looking to utilize gene sequencing to bolster cancer research efforts and screening through its TruSight Oncology 500, which is a molecular test used to detect lung cancer. Since its release in 2018, the company has been seeking ways to expand TruSight’s application to include blood tests capable of detecting the very early stages of several types of cancer.
Another significant growth driver for Illumina is population genomics, with the United States, France, Singapore, England, and other countries already utilizing the company’s technology. Consumer genomics also shows a promising fiscal advancement for Illumina. To date, the company has been catering to major providers including Ancestry and 23andMe. Illumina even created its own genealogical spinoff called Helix.
Global Market Comments
March 22, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(I HAVE AN OPENING FOR THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER CONCIERGE SERVICE),
(MARCH 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(BA), (FCX), (IWM), (JNJ), (FXB), (VIX), (JPM)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader March 20 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: What do you make of the Fed’s move today in interest rates?
A: By cutting short their balance sheet unwind early and ending quantitative tightening (QT) early, it amounts to two surprise interest rate cuts and is hugely “RISK ON”. In effect, they are injecting $2.7 trillion in new cash into the financial system. New highs in stocks beckon, and technology stocks will lead. This is a game changer. In a heartbeat, the world has moved from QT to QE, and we already know what that means for socks. They go up.
Q: Why buy Boeing shares (BA) ahead of a global recession?
A: It’s an 18-day bet that I’ve made in the options market. The US economic data is already indicating recession. The data will continue to worsen and that will continue until we go into a recession. But that’s not happening in 18 trading days. Also, we’re getting into Boeing down 20% from the top so our risk is minimal.
Q: Why are we in an open Russell 2000 (IWM) short position?
A: We now have three long positions— 40% on the long side with the Freeport McMoRan (FCX) double position. It’s always nice to have something on the other side to hedge sudden 145-point declines like we have today. Ideally, you want to be hedged at all times. But it’s hard to fund good companies to sell short in a bull market.
Q: Do you need some euphoria to get the Volatility Index (VIX) to the $30-$60 level?
A: No, you don’t need euphoria. You need fear and panic. The (VIX) is a good “fear index” in that it rises when markets are crashing and falling when markets are slowly rising. And for that reason, I’m not buying (VIX) right now. With a sideways to slowly rising market, we could see the $9 handle again before this move is over.
Q: What should be the exit on the Russell 2000 (IWM)?
A: One choice is taking 80% of the maximum profit when you hit it—that’s where the risk-reward tips against you if you keep the position. The other option is to be greedy and run it all the way into expiration, taking the full profit. It depends on your risk tolerance. Remember, we hit the 80% profit three times in March only to stop out of positions for a loss. The market just doesn’t seem to want to let you take the whole 100%.
Q: Why are all your expirations on April 18?
A: That’s when the monthly options expire; therefore, they have the most liquidity of any other option expiration. If you go with the weeklies before or after the monthlies, the liquidity declines dramatically, which can be very frustrating. Since I used to cover only the largest clients, we could only trade in monthlies because we needed the size.
Q: Will Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) survive all those talcum powder lawsuits?
A: They’ve been going on for 10 years—you’d think they’d know by now if they have asbestos in their talcum powder or not. I highly doubt this will get anywhere; they’ll probably win everything on appeal.
Q: What do you anticipate on Brexit?
A: I think eventually Brexit will fail; we’ll have a referendum which will get voted down, Britain will rejoin Europe, and the British pound (FXB) will go to $1.65 to the dollar where it was when Brexit hit three years ago, up from $1.29 today. It would be economic suicide for Britain to leave Europe, as they would have to compete against Europe, the US, and China alone, and they are slowly figuring that out. Demographic change alone over three years would guarantee that another referendum fails.
Q: My partner owns JP Morgan (JPM). Do you still say banks are not a good place to be?
A: Yes. Fintech is eating their lunch. If they couldn't go up with interest rates moving up in the right direction, they certainly won’t be doing better now that interest rates are going down. Legacy banks are the new buggy whip industry.
Q: Why are commodities (FCX) increasing with a coming recession?
A: They are a hard asset and do better in inflation. Also, they’re stimulating their economy in China and we aren't—commodities do better in that situation as China is the world’s largest buyer of commodities, as do all Chinese investments.
Q: Would you buy Biogen (BIIB) on the dip? Its down 30% today.
A: Canceling their advanced phase three trials for the Alzheimer drug Aducanumab is the worst-case scenario for a biotech company. Some $12 billion in prospective income is down the toilet and many years of R&D costs are a complete write-off. Avoid (BIIB) until the dust settles.
Global Market Comments
March 15, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BUY JOHNSON & JOHNSON ON THE BAD NEWS),
(JNJ), ($INDU), (PFE), (NVS), (AZN)
When one of the 30 Dow Average companies ($INDU) gets into trouble, I sit up and take note, stand to attention and drill down with a magnifying glass.
After all, it may have a major important on an important tradable index, thus opening up an investment opportunity. It also may sound the alarm for a great single stock pick. That is certainly the case with New Brunswick, NJ based Johnson & Johnson, one of the oldest companies traded on the NYSE.
What piqued my interest today was the news that the company lost another talcum power lawsuit, which is alleged by plaintiffs to contain asbestos. This has been among the catalog of urban conspiracies for decades now.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is, in fact, carrying on with their mission to strengthen their pharma sector which has consistently served as their top revenue driver in the past years. While their strong performance in this segment has always been led by their oncology portfolio, with sales of their cancer drugs increasing by 22.1% worldwide in the previous quarter, it looks like more and more products are on their way to becoming JNJ's blockbuster items.
The company estimates to launch more than ten new drugs -- all of which have the potential to be blockbuster products -- by 2021. On top of these, JNJ expects to complete 50 line extensions on their existing products. Both efforts are anticipated to temper the effects of generic drugs that are threatening to hamper the sales of a lot of key products in JNJ's portfolio.
The latest potential blockbuster drug for JNJ is Esketamine which is an anti-depressant aimed at treatment-resistant patients. This was developed by the company’s pharmaceutical arm, Janssen Pharmaceuticals Inc. This new groundbreaking product was approved on March 5 by the FDA and will be marketed as Spravato. It is hailed as the first prescription depression drug developed from ketamine, which is more commonly used as an anesthetic.
Although ketamine has long been tagged as a party drug, aka “Special K”, and is approved as an anesthetic, no company has patented its use. This is where Janssen swooped in and patented the left section of the molecule, called esketamine, and sent their application to FDA. The approval of this drug, which FDA described as a “breakthrough therapy” thus receiving priority review, translates to a potential cash cow for JNJ as it successfully legitimized the application of ketamine as an anti-depression drug.
Aside from depression, FDA is also taking into consideration the applicability of esketamine to patients afflicted with mood disorders such as bipolar disorder. The organization looks at it as a potential solution for reducing suicides as well.
Other drugs projected to rake in massive sales for JNJ pipeline include psoriatic arthritis Tremfya, prostate cancer medication Erleada, and metastatic urothelial cancer treatment Erdafitinib. With the addition of Spravato on the list, sales are expected to reach more than $1 billion.
However, no company is perfect and the same goes for products -- even if they are poised to become blockbuster drugs. A major hindrance for the success of Spravato is cost.
Here's a sample quote for potential patients.
A one-month initial treatment will cost somewhere from $4,000 to $7,000. The exact price will depend on the dosage and if it's availed wholesale. Expenses for follow-up treatments will reach $2,360 to $3,500 a month. All in all, Spravato could become as expensive as an electroconvulsive treatment or even a transcranial magnetic stimulation therapy. Worse, this treatment might have to be shouldered by the patients themselves.
Another deterrent for investors looking into JNJ is the continuing issue concerning the talcum powder lawsuits which claim that the talc items of the company contain asbestos that resulted in ovarian cancer among many of its female users. As of August 2018, a Missouri court has ordered JNJ to pay 22 women a total of $4.7 billion for damages. While the company announced its decision to appeal the ruling, the case has been a huge red flag for investors ever since.
Nonetheless, it appears that JNJ remains a solid stock for a lot of investors.
With an annual revenue of $81.6 billion, (JNJ) is anticipated to stay ahead of its competitors Pfizer (PFE) ($53.4B), Novartis (NVS) ($51B), and AstraZeneca (AZN) ($21.9B). Taking into consideration currency impact, which is expected to negatively affect sales by roughly 1.5%, JNJ's revenues are projected to hit $80.4 to $81.2 billion this year.
While it still has a long way to go, the recent approval of Spravato spelled higher confidence in JNJ's revenue growth this year. The company's purchase of robotic surgical instruments manufacturer Auris Health, for $3.4 billion further strengthened its dominance in the industry.
In the past month alone, its shares rose by 4.55%. Investors are also anticipating more growth until the next earnings report, which is anticipated to show $2.10 earnings per share for the company. This represents a 1.49% year-over-year increase.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
March 11, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BEST TECH PLAY IN HEALTHCARE),
(ISRG), (GOOGL), (JNJ)
Seeking for a great long-term buy and hold tech name?
Then look no further than Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG).
Intuitive Surgical develops and produces robotic products designed to enhance clinical outcomes for patients through minimally invasive surgery, its most well-known product is the da Vinci surgical system.
Healthcare is one sector that I have rarely touched on, but not only will this cross-pollination with tech serve a social good, investors have a chance to rake in future profits.
The da Vinci systems and Intuitive Surgical are the best of breed and have had almost zero competition in the past 20 years.
The systems are placed in operating room used for invasive surgery for various types of ailments from cancer to hernia, and the systems were successfully used over one million times for surgery last year.
The da Vinci systems aren’t cheap – they cost $1.5 million and the customers, usually the hospitals, buy the add-ons of extra parts and supplies that inflate the price another $1,900.
As you would expect, net profit margins are compelling, being over 30% which e-commerce companies would give a left leg for translating into numbers that make the company incredibly profitable.
The story of the da Vinci systems starts way back in the 80s with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) hoping it could figure out how to offer surgeons the ability to operate remotely on soldiers wounded on the battlefield.
SRI International (SRI), an American nonprofit scientific research institute and organization took the painstaking time to develop the technology.
SRI's intellectual property was eventually acquired in 1994 and incorporated a new company named Intuitive Surgical Devices by the founders.
It took another 4 years for the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) to finally approve usage of the da Vinci Surgical System.
The first available surgery was for general laparoscopic surgery used to address gallbladder disease and gastroesophageal disease.
The next year saw another harvest of approvals with the FDA giving the green light to use the system for prostate surgery.
The approvals started to flow like a waterfall with thoracoscopic surgery, cardiac procedures performed with adjunctive incisions, and gynecologic procedures also approved by the FDA.
Fast forward to 2019 and the company couldn’t be financially healthier looking back at the year of 2018 in review.
Instruments & Accessories revenues came in at $1.96 billion comprising 52.7% of total revenue.
System sales crushed it with $1.13 billion, growth of 30.3% YOY and service sales amounted to $635.1 million up 17% YOY.
And in the latest quarter, Intuitive Surgical reported 19% YOY growth in worldwide da Vinci procedure volumes which contributed to bumping up revenue 18% YOY in the instruments and accessories segment.
The company is seeing the same type of success abroad with foreign revenues totaling $307 million, up 24% YOY.
Intuitive Surgical installed 115 systems in the previous quarter outside of America compared with 86 in the quarter before last.
55 of these new systems were installed in Europe, 31 in Japan, and nine in Brazil.
Procedure growth is forecasted to expand between 13-17%, fueled by U.S. general surgery and procedures.
Unfortunately, the stock sold off after earnings because adjusted operating expenses are expected to rise 20-28% reminding investors that the stock can’t always move up in a straight line.
The harm to operating margins is a tough pill to swallow in the short-term, but that does not take away the gloss from this leading tech company.
Intuitive Surgical plans to branch out from the da Vinci systems with its new Ion system, a robotic-assisted bronchoscope awaiting FDA clearance, a revolutionary way to kill cancer cells inside the lung.
After decades of unbridled market leadership, there are a few icebergs ahead in the distance in the form of competition.
Verb Surgical, a collaboration between Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Alphabet (GOOGL), will enter the healthcare robot surgery market in 2020.
Johnson & Johnson recently indicated it will splurge $3.4 billion in cash for Auris Health, a robotics startup with a device to perform lung biopsies that could compete with Intuitive Surgical’s Ion system.
Auris Health was approved by the FDA in March 2018 for this device that performs lung biopsies and Intuitive Surgical promptly sued citing patent infringement.
Auris Health was established by the co-founder of Intuitive Surgical Dr. Frederic Moll who pioneered the field of surgical robotics but left Intuitive in 2003 after 8 years there.
Intuitive could rub up on some more competition in the future, that is a stark possibility, but the pathway to profits are still open as the company rolls out different systems, services, and has the capital to fund new directions.
Hospitals that already have existing relationships with Intuitive will be less inclined to switch over to competing services if they are satisfied with the quality, service, and price points of the equipment.
This will help Intuitive build on the current strong momentum and ensure their products are in the pipeline to be adopted by the next batch of future demand.
Shares of the company are sky-high and expensive with a PE multiple of 55.
The big investment into R&D is in no doubt to fend off the potential competition around the corner, but I view that as a net positive.
It would be logical to wait for a pullback to buy shares, this one is a keeper.
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