Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 21, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHAT TO DO ABOUT NETFLIX SHARES?)
(NFLX), (APPL), (MSFT)
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 21, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHAT TO DO ABOUT NETFLIX SHARES?)
(NFLX), (APPL), (MSFT)
It’s quite the irony that Netflix’s earnings report came smack dab in the middle of Hollywood’s meltdown as the contract standoff between writers and studios threaten to implode a Southern Californian industry that has been on life support for quite some time.
One’s famine is another’s fortune.
NFLX had a mixed earnings report so it’s not like it has been gangbusters for streaming platforms either.
They used to be a perennial tech growth company and now they are down to just 3% revenue growth which won’t cut it.
NFLX has been saved by the macro picture as traders scurried into tech stocks from early 2023 while investors bet on a Fed pivot and a reversion to the mean after a horrible 2022.
The business itself isn’t doing anything special like it used to, and they are also way too woke, but when they don’t have to be spectacular, it’s easier for the stock to elevate.
The brightest number of all was the addition of 5.9 million subs.
Netflix, which now boasts 238 million global subscribers, will keep benefiting from this password-sharing clampdown.
Some expected it to backfire, but viewers have flashed their wallets and signed up for the service.
The streamer boasted that “sign-ups are already exceeding cancellations” and that it is implementing the password policy across the world now.
Profitability is starting to become an issue for NFLX as they missed on revenue.
Streaming has become a worse business lately because the world is too saturated with content.
Another positive is that NFLX upped its free cash flow from $1.5 billion to approximately $5 billion for the year.
This is what mature tech companies are supposed to do.
Eventually, they will increase deliverables back to the shareholder in the form of buybacks and dividends like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).
The company cited “lower cash content spend” amid the writers’ and actors’ strikes that have brought content production to an absolute standstill.
No more $9.99 ad-free plan.
Netflix axed its cheapest ad-free option in the US and the UK. The plan, offered at $9.99, is no longer available to new customers.
The decision to cut the skeleton plan appears aimed at pushing subscribers in that price tier toward the ad-supported model, which is priced at $6.99. The company has previously said the ad-supported model performed better on the “economics” than the $9.99 ad-free model.
NFLX shares have had a great year so far with shares up 44%.
The 44% upswing is also after an 8% drop yesterday on this earnings report.
Clearly, traders used this opportunity to take profits.
NFLX’s performance is part of my wider thesis that earnings won’t be anything special, but good enough to deliver a better entry point into these stocks.
Buy the dip strategy will perpetuate for most brand-name tech companies.
It’s not exactly simple to get into a stock that has gone up 44% in 7 months because most of the time the stock needs to be chased.
Chasing tech stocks is an underlying theme of 2023 with fear of missing out (FOMO) engulfing most fund manager’s plans of attack.
So yes, I do believe many investors will use these tepid earnings reports to take profits and these dips are incredibly healthy for the tech sector.
Thus, traders should reload because tech stocks like NFLX will be on discount before the next leg higher.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 20, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(INNOVATION GENIUS OR INVESTORS’ QUAGMIRE?)
(TDOC), (MSFT)
Let's rewind to the inception of Teladoc (TDOC).
In the early 2000s, online medical appointments were as futuristic as a scene out of The Jetsons. Fast forward to today, and Teladoc's business model - a digital clinic where you see the doctor from your laptop - is as commonplace as ordering a latte from your phone.
In theory, it's a genius innovation - cut down the rigmarole of office visits, boost doctor efficiency, and slash overhead costs associated with physical appointments.
Unfortunately, the real world has been a tough nut to crack for Teladoc, with investors getting cold feet over the past few years.
Still, when the risk-averse tide returned in 2023 and investors started making a beeline for stocks that had taken a beating in 2022, Teladoc shareholders were also banking on a swift recovery from the lows.
Indeed, with a market shift towards greener pastures, the stock got a nearly 60% leg-up from its historical lows by early February. It looked like buyers were of the view that, despite some managerial slip-ups, the leader of the telehealth market seemed underpriced given its double-digit growth rates. The expectations also seemed tempered.
Then came another slap of reality with the quarterly reports.
Despite respectable Q4 figures, the outlook was nothing short of a letdown. After a 2022 slump in the telehealth market and Teladoc's 18% growth, one might have hoped for a more robust expansion within a burgeoning industry.
Instead, investors got a projection of lukewarm average increase of just 8.4%, GAAP profitability seemed like a distant dream, and even an EBITDA growth of 22% couldn't make the numbers shine.
The backlash was predictable. After Q1 numbers, the stock rallied before it stumbled again, nearing its all-time lows - even amidst a risk-on climate.
Diminishing growth, elusive profitability, mounting competition – Is this Teladoc's swan song, or can it claw back its glory?
Recent updates show that it seems like Teladoc is leaning on Microsoft (MSFT) for a lifeline.
The company declared an expanded alliance with Microsoft, aiming to harness the latter's state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) technology. This uplifting news is a much-needed antidote for the digital health provider, whose recent journey had more in common with a bear market trudge than a bull run sprint.
The idea is for the telehealth company to basically plug in the Azure OpenAI Service, along with other Microsoft products, directly into its homegrown Teladoc Solo virtual care platform.
The endgame? Cut the red tape for overworked healthcare professionals by automating the grind of clinical documentation – applicable to virtual check-ups and in-person consultations.
That's not all. Teladoc is additionally introducing the "Nuance Dragon Ambient eXperience," or DAX, a sophisticated tool that effortlessly transforms patient-practitioner dialogues into comprehensive, specialty-specific clinical notes, all while sticking to the letter of documentation standards.
As expected, the stock enjoyed an initial sugar rush as investors toasted to the company's pivot towards AI.
For me, though, I have a more measured take on the announcement. While I recognize the positive thrust of the move, I can’t completely agree that this alliance is a game-changer. Let me share some of the reasons behind my reluctance.
In the first part of 2023, Teladoc reported a top-line revenue of $629 million, while carrying a net loss of $69 million. On the surface, the balance between the top and bottom lines seems skewed.
However, taking a step back, Teladoc took a considerable hit last year with a sizeable goodwill impairment charge. But spring 2023 brings a new twist, with an $8.1 million expense for restructuring.
Based on the 10-Q filing, these costs were tied to "kissing goodbye to excess leased office spaces." We might assume this is a one-off, and quite frankly, it's a move I admire for a company currently in the red.
But let’s flip the script a bit and talk about operating expenses.
While the company managed to cut back on Sales and Technology and Development, they seemed to have thrown caution to the wind, with General and Administrative costs up by 9% and Advertising and Marketing expenses skyrocketing by 32%.
I’m not talking about an occasional splurge here. The 2022 report shows a 50% annual increase in Advertising and Marketing costs. This figure is critical, as it gives us a peek into the company's customer acquisition costs. More money spent on marketing translates to longer customer retention needed to turn a profit.
To provide you with a sense, for every dollar Teladoc made in Q1 2023, 28 cents went to marketing, a noticeable bump from 24 cents per dollar in Q1 2022.
Now, Teladoc hints at some seasonality in their operations, with the first and last quarters typically reflecting weaker operating income as the pace of new customer acquisitions and revenue growth lags behind marketing expenses. But let's not let this divert our attention from the discrepancy between revenue growth and marketing costs.
As an investor, you'd obviously want to know how well the company is retaining its customers with these rising acquisition costs.
Here's the deal: Teladoc's customer churn rate isn't increasing, but it's not dropping either. As for the customer retention rates, the company’s executives describe the figures as "stable."
Notably, the company already casts a wide net, claiming that "over 80 million individuals in the U.S. have access to one or more of our products and services." If that's true, Teladoc already has its hooks in nearly a quarter of the U.S. population.
So, the million-dollar question for investors: If Teladoc can't turn a profit with this massive reach, then when will it?
In the digital healthcare universe, Teladoc once promised to be a shooting star. Yet, amidst stalled growth, daunting losses, and controversial investments, it appears more like a black hole absorbing investor optimism.
The recent alliance with Microsoft injects a ray of hope, aiming to automate and optimize operations through AI. But the questions remain: Is this the life-saving maneuver that rights Teladoc's trajectory, or just a brief flash in the pan?
As investors, we're left to wonder, in the dance of innovation and investment, will Teladoc waltz or wobble? Only time will play the music.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 19, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CODERS ARE NEXT TO GO)
(GOOGL), (MSFT)
The future is here, and for some, the news isn’t good.
The big picture suggests that generative artificial intelligence stocks will benefit handsomely from this groundbreaking technology, but the losers aren’t as obvious as one might think.
If one might believe this is the cue to jumping head first into becoming an artificial intelligence programmer then think again.
Ironically enough, many of these jobs will, yes, be taken by the very technology itself, and we have received confirmation that this trend is likely to occur from management that makes the decisions of which staff to pay.
Why pay humans when an algorithm can do the same job?
Recently, a prominent generative AI executive stated that coders are at risk of losing jobs in the next 2-4 years.
This executive originates from one of the leading companies in the space, so it’s not like some fake expert offering his two cents either.
During an interview, this executive suggested that countries like India, where many IT jobs get outsourced, might be in trouble in the next few years because firms can just adopt AI tools to write, read, and review codes.
Even labor laws can’t prevent this giant replacement of human labor.
Tech giants like Google and Microsoft have shared similar concerns, though they argue that AI will create new jobs and humans need to co-exist with the technology.
Here is a quick summary of what I learned.
Outsourced coders up to level three programmers will be gone in the next year or two.
That's because new generative AI models "are like really talented grads" and will replace those who sit "in front of a computer" and never get noticed.
So it affects different models in different countries in different ways in different sectors.
In the United States, the two-week notice is real, and coders and engineers at international IT firms are at risk once Silicon Valley figures out they are expendable.
I must say that this might be the job apocalypse that many have been predicting.
The belt-tightening going on in Silicon Valley is just the beginning.
Next, we will see AI get rid of even more lucrative positions.
Google (GOOGL) CEO Sundar Pichai and Microsoft (MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella have also previously shared concerns about potential job loss due to AI.
Pichai and Nadella have repeatedly said that AI will eliminate grunt work.
In large corporations, many workers do just that – grunt work.
Not everyone is making strategic decisions that affect the direct fortunes of the company like Nadella and Pichai. Not everyone is Elon Musk.
AI will replace humans and CEOs like Pichai and Nadella are just being polite because they preside over a massive workforce.
They cannot come out in public and say that everyone will get fired. If they did that, workers would protest, revolt, and unionize as fast as possible. At the bare minimum, they will lay down flat and barely move a finger, resulting in company morale tanking.
At the stock level, this will boost revenue, margins, and profitability to a new golden era of tech stocks.
Workforces are about to get even leaner, and I am not talking about just firing the chief diversity officer or the chief climate change officer. The chief vegan foods officer for the office cafeteria was fired in the last round of cuts. The next round of cuts will start migrating up the value chain and it will be oh so painful.
Global Market Comments
July 14, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(SATURDAY, AUGUST 5, 2023 ROME, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(HOW TO FIND A GREAT OPTIONS TRADE)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Global Market Comments
July 13, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(TUESDAY, AUGUST 1, 2023 FLORENCE, ITALY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(A NOTE ON OPTIONS CALLED AWAY),
(MSFT)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
In the run-up to every options expiration, which is the third Friday of every month, there is a possibility that any short options positions you have may get assigned or called away.
If that happens, there is only one thing to do: fall down on your knees and thank your lucky stars. You have just made the maximum possible profit for your position instantly.
Most of you have short option positions, although you may not realize it. For when you buy an in-the-money vertical option spread, it contains two elements: a long option and a short option.
The short options can get “assigned,” or “called away” at any time, as it is owned by a third party, the one you initially sold the put option to when you initiated the position.
You have to be careful here because the inexperienced can blow their newfound windfall if they take the wrong action, so here’s how to handle it correctly.
Let’s say you get an email from your broker telling you that your call options have been assigned away. I’ll use the example of the Microsoft (MSFT) December 2019 $134-$137 in-the-money vertical BULL CALL spread.
For what the broker had done in effect is allow you to get out of your call spread position at the maximum profit point 8 days before the December 20 expiration date. In other words, what you bought for $4.50 last week is now $5.00!
All have to do is call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long position in your (MSFT) December 134 calls to close out your short position in the (MSFT) December $137 calls.
This is a perfectly hedged position, with both options having the same expiration date, the same amount of contracts in the same stock, so there is no risk. The name, number of shares, and number of contracts are all identical, so you have no exposure at all.
Calls are a right to buy shares at a fixed price before a fixed date, and one option contract is exercisable into 100 shares.
To say it another way, you bought the (MSFT) at $134 and sold it at $137, paid $2.60 for the right to do so, so your profit is 40 cents, or ($0.40 X 100 shares X 38 contracts) = $1,520. Not bad for an 18-day limited risk play.
Sounds like a good trade to me.
Weird stuff like this happens in the run-up to options expirations like we have coming.
A call owner may need to buy a long (MSFT) position after the close, and exercising his long December $134 call is the only way to execute it.
Adequate shares may not be available in the market, or maybe a limit order didn’t get done by the market close.
There are thousands of algorithms out there which may arrive at some twisted logic that the puts need to be exercised.
Many require a rebalancing of hedges at the close every day which can be achieved through option exercises.
And yes, options even get exercised by accident. There are still a few humans left in this market to blow it by writing shoddy algorithms.
And here’s another possible outcome in this process.
Your broker will call you to notify you of an option called away, and then give you the wrong advice on what to do about it. They’ll tell you to take delivery of your long stock and then most additional margin to cover the risk.
Either that, or you can just sell your shares on the following Monday and take on a ton of risk over the weekend. This generates a ton of commission for the brokers but impoverishes you.
There may not even be an evil motive behind the bad advice. Brokers are not investing a lot in training staff these days. It doesn’t pay. In fact, I think I’m the last one they really did train.
Avarice could have been an explanation here but I think stupidity and poor training and low wages are much more likely.
Brokers have so many legal ways to steal money that they don’t need to resort to the illegal kind.
This exercise process is now fully automated at most brokers but it never hurts to follow up with a phone call if you get an exercise notice. Mistakes do happen.
Some may also send you a link to a video of what to do about all this.
If any of you are the slightest bit worried or confused by all of this, come out of your position RIGHT NOW at a small profit! You should never be worried or confused about any position tying up YOUR money.
Professionals do these things all day long and exercises become second nature, just another cost of doing business.
If you do this long enough, eventually you get hit. I bet you don’t.
Calling All Options!
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
June 28, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(REGULATION HEATS UP)
(AMZN), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (NVDA)
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