Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 3, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ALGORITHMS TAKE OUT ED TECH)
(CHGG), (ZM), (NFT), (CHATGPT)
Posts
Chegg (CHGG) is toast.
That is what artificial intelligence has done to their business model and we are in the early innings.
The company said to kiss growth goodbye.
Artificial intelligence is already putting a massive dent in some industries.
Education has changed dramatically in the past generation where more than half of Americans say a 4-year degree is not worth the price of admission anymore.
Now, moving forward, the little value extracted in terms of workable knowledge in the classroom is effectively zilch as generative artificial intelligence will do the job of a million university teachers for free.
There simply is no use case for taking geography studies or getting a basket weaving degree from Wesleyan College.
It doesn’t make sense anymore.
The scary thing is this is just the beginning and other industries are about to get t-boned as well.
Only the nimblest will survive.
Workers need to retrain, network, and preserve and expand skill levels.
Shares of virtual language-learning company Duolingo fell 9% while American depositary receipts tied to shares of London-based Pearson fell 12.5%.
Chegg offers subscription-based academic services that help students with writing and math assignments as well as study materials.
Management said the company didn’t see a significant effect on its business from ChatGPT until March, when the company behind the product, OpenAI, launched GPT-4.
Chegg said the popularity of ChatGPT among students is affecting its customer-growth rate.
The red alarm from Chegg and the subsequent selloff are among the most glaring indications that this isn’t some cute niche thing that can be downplayed or diminished.
AI is coming for most white-collar jobs and workers should be scared if not mortified.
Many of the job losses will occur in big corporations and America has some of the biggest and most profitable.
The tailwind for corporate management is that they don’t need to pay benefits or social payments to AI so big cost savings that will fall down to the bottom line.
Wall Street will be applying this technology to the utmost too.
To say this technology is transformative doesn’t do justice to the word transformative.
This isn’t going to be an all tides lift all boats scenario.
Bloomberg news noted that nearly 40% said that children currently in elementary school will be best off with a job in health care if they want to avoid being displaced by artificial intelligence.
What about tech?
There will be serious winners and losers as this shakes out. It’ll be like a slow-motion car crash for workers while tech firms profit in real-time.
Technology stocks will hollow out similar to how we see the behemoths pull ahead lately muscling out smaller companies with their solid balance sheets.
This has essentially become a 7-stock tech sector.
Tech companies will absolutely be chomping at the bit to fire computer engineers whom many command in excess of $150,000 in pre-tax gross salary.
Of course, the lower-level computer engineers will be thrown by the wayside first then slowly the terminations will reach higher up the value chain.
If a computer engineer wants to survive in the future, they will need to dive into generative artificial intelligence themselves which will easily offer the highest salaries in technology.
AI is now the new bitcoin and the best talent will flood that space. It’s easy to see how starting salaries with start with a 3 and end with 5 more numbers.
As for tech investors, this shows that getting into these little micro tech stocks is more and more treacherous as the landscape has dictated a hard future ahead.
That is why I tripled up on a bearish position in Zoom technologies (ZM). All big tech companies have some sort of version of video conferencing tech and it is easy to replicate. Stay with the strongest during this bank crisis.
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 20, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LOOKING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE)
(BTC), (NFT)
A non-fungible token (NFT) is a unique digital identifier that cannot be copied, substituted, or subdivided, that is recorded in a blockchain, and that is used to certify authenticity and ownership.
Like cryptocurrencies, they are also digital tokens.
But compared to cryptocurrencies, which are fungible, or interchangeable, NFTs are singular and unique. Like cryptocurrencies, they exist on the blockchain as cryptographic assets.
The price direction of NFTs is a good way to take a barometer of a speculative technology market underpinning crypto.
I can tell you that the NFT marketplace is dead as a doornail and like how the price of Bitcoin has been engulfed in a crypto winter, it’s even worse in the NFT world.
How bad?
Multimillion-dollar NFT purchases marked down to $100 kind of bad.
In times when the crypto industry is bullish, NFT prices benefit from being a second derivative industry.
One might say that it’s just a 3X ETF of Bitcoin and for speculators, this can be either good or bad.
If you don’t believe me about the state of NFTs, let's roll through some of the data points.
In sectors from art to gaming, trading volume and prices for NFTs across all sectors have plunged about 95% since this time last year.
Since the start of September, NFT trading volumes have averaged $35 million per week.
The NFT capitulation is solid proof that NFTs are not stores of wealth and definitely aren’t inflation hedges.
I can also say that Bitcoin has pretty much failed every test of legitimacy as well during this crypto winter.
NFTs and Bitcoin are speculative assets that only do well during a time of increasing liquidity. The reverse holds true as liquidity tightens.
Many of those art NFTs are being bought and sold on OpenSea, the most prominent peer-to-peer marketplace.
Trading volume on the platform has plummeted from around $3 billion in September 2021 to $350 million in September 2022, an 88% drop.
Personally, I don’t believe in NFTs long term, I don’t get how a digital certificate will hold weight.
I rather have a real physical certificate that shows I own something like a real estate deed.
For those who might think NFTs could hold more utility in the future, then I am another hater you must convince.
Preaching to me about how long-term prospects are positive and investors should buy the dip is laughable.
Any serious asset doesn’t go down 95% in one year without a crisis and in the short-term survival of NFTs isn’t guaranteed.
This was a fad that caught on and rode the hysteria of Bitcoin to relevance and now is being dumped faster than one can imagine.
As we approach a Fed-induced recession, it’s hard to believe what Americans would be interested in buying an NFT when they get fired from their job.
Only 50% of Americans have even heard about NFTs, but most understand that securing shelter and food during unemployment is more important than throwing money down the toilet.
Avoid the NFT asset class, period.
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
May 5, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(COSTS SPIKE FOR NEW CRYPTO-SUPPORTED INTERNET)
(BTC), (NFT), (FB), (DAPP)
Advanced technologies such as cryptocurrencies and (non-fungible) tokens will play a leading role in Web 3.0, since they reflect a sense of ownership in decentralized blockchain networks.
Much of this is totally new and the programming and design behind it won’t be able to mesh well with what happened before.
Think of the latest hype of NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, which shifts the ownership of a certain form of money, which is the case with cryptocurrencies, to the ownership of many other digital assets, from artworks to memes and tweets.
Internet 2.0 programmers won’t be able to just seamlessly integrate into this new language and help develop this new world.
Web 3.0 enables the spread of cooperative governance frameworks for formerly centralized products.
There are few qualified Web 3.0 developers and they are able to ask for astronomical compensation for their service.
This won’t stop anytime soon as companies like Meta (FB), who have cash, are willing to throw money at this limited pool of developers.
There are many costs involved in being a Web 3.0 developer. The initial start-up cost is typically high, but this is offset by the increased flexibility it affords. As you build your portfolio of Web 3.0 projects, the costs will gradually decrease.
This technology would make the web more transparent and user-centric, while also opening the door for the blockchain. In the future, websites and apps could trade cryptocurrencies and other coins.
Becoming a Web 3.0 developer is not easy, but the rewards are well worth it. Those who have mastered the basics of the new framework can build an excellent website.
The cost of learning to become a Web 3.0 developer varies, but can be extremely high. After all, it takes a lot of time to build a successful business on this technology. There are also plenty of challenges involved with it.
The technology is not yet mainstream, but a handful of projects are attempting to build channels through the interoperability of blockchain networks.
You must have an understanding of web development, understand the trade-offs between different types of technologies, and be able to see trends and future directions in the industry.
A free course on Blockchain and cryptocurrencies can help you master the skills you need. Harvard University’s CS50 course will teach you the basics of computer programming, including data handling and Blockchain. Blockchain is crucial for Web3.0 developers because it is not only related to crypto coins, but can also run cutting-edge DApps and full backends.
The Web3.0 technology is a fast-growing field, and it is much like the dot-com era in the early 2000s.
A career as a Web3.0 developer is highly likely the best type of career to focus on for anyone getting into tech these days.
The risk-reward is skewed so much to the reward that many “full-time” developers are setting their workweeks at only a maximum of 24 hours per week or three days.
Not only that, web 3.0 developers are asking for starting salaries of $200,000 per year and if a company is interested in adding a 4th day of work, then that starting salary spikes to $300,000.
Remember these sums aren’t just it, these developers require a good amount of stock options.
Lastly, these web developers are refusing any job as “independent contractors” and won’t look at any offers that are anything other than a full-time employee with those implied rights.
Even under these terms, these web 3.0 developers have a line outside the door of companies willing to pay this type of compensation to get them in the door.
Web 3.0 is proposed to become the next iteration of the internet, but right now, the only people winning in this race are the people putting it together.
Until this new version of the internet comes online, companies won’t be able to fully monetize or onboard consumers.
This of course is important because crypto will be the medium of payment in this internet 3.0.
The lead up to that moment means that companies will need billions just to get a seat at the table.
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
January 11, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ANOTHER TECH COMPANY BETS THE RANCH ON BLOCKCHAIN)
(GME), (NFT)
GameStop Corp is getting into the nonfungible tokens industry and eyes the crypto industry to launch its new growth strategy.
What are Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT)?
NFTs are coded on the Ethereum blockchain. Ethereum is a cryptocurrency, but its blockchain also supports these NFTs. NFTs store extra information that programs a piece of code uniquely tying it to a specific item.
This unique and non-interchangeable unit of data is stored on a blockchain, a form of digital ledger. NFTs are usually associated with reproducible digital files such as photos, videos, and audio.
NFTs use a digital ledger to provide a public certificate of authenticity or proof of ownership, but do not restrict the sharing or copying of the underlying digital files.
GME intends to create a division in which a marketplace facilitates the buying, selling, and trading NFTs of virtual videogame goods such as avatar outfits and weapons.
They are also likely to sign partnerships with two crypto companies to share technology and co-invest in the development of games that use blockchain and NFT technology, as well as other NFT-related projects.
This could trigger another avalanche of capital into this new industry that has commanded hundreds of billions of new investments in just a few years.
Crypto is the predictable landing stop for GME as their retail gaming business has failed in the face of the pandemic and their stock was only saved by a Reddit Army bidding up the price of the stock in order to dissuade hedge fund managers to profit off its decline.
The truth is that GME’s business model has been crushed as the gaming industries have been uploaded to the cloud and consumers are opting to directly download titles they want straight from their Wi-Fi connection.
Waiting around malls for people to come and pay in-person is an outdated model and instead of joining the cloud and copying the rest of the industry, this drastic change signals they are ready for something vastly different.
They tried executing a few technical changes in order to stage a turnaround, but its loss widened compared with the same period a year earlier. The revenue growth came from sales of hardware and accessories, while revenue from game software slipped 2%.
GME is involving itself in blockchain and NFT technologies as a last-ditch effort to be relevant again.
Luckily for GME, blockchain and NFT is where all the action is and new venture capital is stacking its chips in the fledgling industry as well.
That doesn’t mean they are going to turn the ship around in one day but of course, you want to be where the pie is growing.
GME shares had plunged by more than 45% over the past six weeks signaling that internally, they are desperate for wholesale changes.
The meme mania has largely worn off and to rejuvenate the mediocre business model they are looking for the magic bullet.
It’s not just GME getting in early, a marketplace called OpenSea said it raised $300 million in venture capital and is now valued at $13.3 billion, greater than GMEs valuation of close to $10 billion.
The videogame industry is more than likely to be first mover in the adoption of cryptocurrency, NFTs, and blockchain technology.
Gamers are poised to be among the first to embrace the technologies because this environment feels like something they could make the next jump to conceptually.
In recent weeks, some of the industry’s biggest publicly traded videogame companies have launched or announced plans to sell NFTs, including Ubisoft Entertainment, Zynga, and Square Enix.
GME is among many that are hoping to front-run other investors before this industry explodes 10X which could easily happen.
They don’t want to miss the big thing and they clearly made errors by avoiding the cloud.
NFT is just one technology that has exploded from blockchain and there will be many iterations of useful software that will need to be decentralized in nature.
NFTs have caught on quite well with famous athletes, actors, and musicians who are looking to secure proof of ownership of a digital good representing their image and likeness.
The idea is genius, but some might question if a stash of code is really proof of ownership.
Naturally, there will be non-believers and believers, but if the stars of the world are convinced, which many have already sold items as NFTs, then I believe it will legitimize an industry moving forward and it will grow 100X in the next 10 years.
Or it could easily evolve into something more secure and complex with the next iteration of NFTs.
To grow a tech company, firms are starting to bet the ranch of decentralized apps and crypto.
This is only positive for the long-term sustainability of crypto as we inch towards the metaverse.
