Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 21, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BUY AMD ON THE DIP),
(AMD), (NVDA), (INTC),
Posts
I am bullish Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
The company is doing backflips and edging around other fertile pastures to the dismay of competitors.
They jumped all over Intel’s (INTC) CPU lead promising more cores and adding on more features to lure in a new audience.
In terms of computer graphics, Nvidia (NVDA) still wields more clout in the higher-grade GPU space and AMD has been playing second fiddle with cheaper, value-oriented GPU cards that can be best described as mid-range.
That is about to change.
AMD is at it again acing its attempt to pull down Goliath with its new Radeon VII.
This $700 GPU card is the first 7 nanometer (nm) GPU on the market and is a warning shot to Nvidia who they plan to surgically invade in order to snatch market share.
This new AMD GPU is a direct threat to Nvidia’s set of RTX 2080 graphics cards and is set at the same price point with comparable performance.
The Radeon VII is the next iteration to AMD’s Vega 64 and possesses similar architecture with specific enhancements in clock speeds and VRAM.
Gamers are still on the fence to whether this new product can eclipse the heavily entrenched Nvidia graphics cards that are time-honored, tested and stamped with the industries seal of approval.
It is still uncertain whether AMD can introduce the necessary supply and if you still remember when the prior iteration Vega 64 debuted in 2017, it was a threat to Nvidia’s top-tier GTX 1080, but ran out of inventory quickly.
The new Radeon VII card is one of the best on the market for professional work and still does well in the gaming realm, albeit with a lack of ray tracing.
Few video games support ray tracing currently but new game studios plan to adopt this cutting edge technology later this year.
I commend AMD’s first foray into this part of the niche market and when AMD upgrades its architecture and improves on the next iteration, Nvidia will be squarely in their crosshairs.
The number of new products that drive top-line growth is another reason to be positive on this stock.
Looking at the CPU market – momentum would be the key word to describe AMD’s current trajectory.
For generations, Intel has had a secure stranglehold on this rapidly expanding market, but the fringes of the industry have been hijacked by AMD and they seek to spread its tentacles deeper into foreign CPU waters.
By the end of the year, I believe that AMD will carve out a nice high single digit market share of global CPU sales.
Intel has been bogged down by production setbacks in the deployment of the 10-nm server chip giving AMD a chance to take advantage of this gaping pothole to jack up sales with its EPYC chip.
Not only that, AMD is motoring ahead with a superior 7-nm chip which is a faster processor and is more energy-friendly than Intel’s 10-nm version.
I can conclude that AMD is blowing past Intel in chip technology, and has its third generation of CPUs earmarked for the market in the summer ready to stretch the lead.
CEO of AMD Dr. Lisa Su is compounding the misery for Intel, offering a physical glimpse of plans to roll out its third generation Ryzen CPUs for PCs by the middle of the year at the Consumer Electronics Show in January.
Another catalyst that could drive the stock higher is a favorable earnings outlook in 2019.
After meeting expectations last quarter, expansion is expected in the high single digits in a tough chip environment that has wrought its fair share of carnage.
I wouldn’t pigeonhole the new product line as mere hype, it’s clear they are meaningfully enhanced and improved with each successive iteration.
I estimate that these new products will give AMD solid traction to close in on the competition in the CPU and GPU markets.
Clearly, this isn’t a 1-quarter venture, but visibly aware that AMD is making inroads into other markets are a demonstrably net negative to weight on Intel and Nvidia shares.
This part of tech is not without its headaches and is fraught with China risk.
Chinese gaming regulators have put the kibosh on new gaming licenses and AMD’s scaling back of forecasts should reflect this development.
Intel cited falling spend on server chips and Nvidia came out with a dreadful earnings report to forget lately.
However, when there is blood in the streets, the status quo is ripe for some change and I am confident that AMD can execute this aggressive ramp up after digesting some of the excessive inventory in the first quarter.
As AMD trades at $24, I can’t help but believe this name will end the year higher.
Investors must remember that in the near term, the Fed has hit the pause button aiding the equity market, and China has reportedly been keen on some massive chip purchases to help soothe the nerves of the administration.
If the market can marry this up with favorable reviews of AMD’s latest products, I don’t see why AMD can’t be trading at $30 by the end of the year.
At the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference, I proclaimed that AMD was one of my favorites going into 2019 and exploded upwards from $17 in October 2018.
AMD truly has not disappointed.
Global Market Comments
February 14, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY I’M AVOIDING PFIZER LIKE THE PLAGUE)
(PFE), (MRK), (MVS),
(THE LIQUIDITY CRISIS COMING TO A MARKET NEAR YOU),
(TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Global Market Comments
February 13, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BIDDING MORE FOR THE STARS),
(SPY), (INDU), (NVDA)
(NOW THE FAT LADY IS REALLY SINGING FOR THE BOND MARKET),
(TLT), (TBT)
Global Market Comments
February 8, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (FXA), (NVDA), (SPY), (IEUR),
(VIX), (UUP), (FXE), (AMD), (MU), (SOYB)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader February 6 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: Why are you so convinced bonds (TLT) are going to drop in 2019?
A: I think the Fed will regain the confidence to start raising rates again in the second half. Wage inflation is starting to appear, especially at the minimum wage level in several states. That will crater the bond market as well as the stock market, just as we saw in the second half of 2018. We’re in unknown territory in the bond market; we’re issuing astronomical WWII levels of debt and it’s only a matter of time before the Federal government crowds out private sector borrowers. Even if the bond market sidelines during this time, we will still make the maximum profit in the kind of option bear put spreads I have been putting on.
Q: Why did the Aussie (FXA) go down when they suddenly flipped from rising to cutting interest rates?
A: Interest rate differentials are the principal driver of all foreign exchange rates. They always have been and always will be. Rising rates almost always lead to a stronger currency. And with the US Fed on pause for the foreseeable future, we think the Aussie will be stronger going into 2019.
Q: Do you see the 10-year US Treasury yield going back up to 3.25% this year?
A: Yes, it’ll probably happen in the second half of the year—once the Fed gets its mojo back and decides that high employment and inflation are the bigger threats to the economy.
Q: Has NVIDIA (NVDA) bottomed here?
A: Probably, but you don’t want to touch the semiconductor chip companies until the summer. That’s when all the industry insiders expect the industry to turn and start discounting rocketing earnings after the next recession.
Q: Are stocks expensive here (SPY)?
A: On a trailing basis no, on a forward basis definitely yes. The current price/earnings multiple for the market is 17 now against a 14-20 range in 2018. So, we are dead in the middle of that range now. That’s OK when earnings are rapidly rising as they did last year. But they are falling now and at an increasingly increasing pace.
Q: Do you think the administration used the shutdown to bring forth a recession? To kickstart the pro-economic platform for reelection in 2020?
A: The administration’s view is that the economy is the strongest it’s ever been with no chance of future recession and that they will win the election as a slam dunk. If you believe that, buy stocks; if you don’t, sell them.
Q: How bad do you think Europe (IEUR) will get and does that mean the dollar (UUP) could see parity with the Euro (FXE) soon?
A: Europe is bad but they’re not going to raise interest rates anymore. However, they’re not going to cut them either because they’re already at zero. You need rising rates to see a stronger currency and the fact that the U.S. stopped raising rates is an argument for the Euro to go higher.
Q: Are we about to settle into a fading Volatility Index (VIX) environment for the rest of the year?
A: No, we are not; the (VIX) has been fading for 6 weeks. We’re approaching a bottom with the (VIX) here at $15, and the next big move in will probably be to the upside. The market has gotten WAY too complacent.
Q: Which are the most worrisome signals you see in the U.S. economy right now?
A: Weak earnings and sales guidance from all U.S. companies going forward and the immense jump in jobless claims last week as well as the ever-exploding amounts of government debt. Did I mention the trade war with China and the next government shutdown? Traders have a lot on their plate right now.
Q: How far will Lam Research (LRCX) go?
A: We’ve just had a massive 46% move up, so I wouldn’t chase it up here. However, long term there is still an easy double in this stock. They’re tied in with the semiconductor companies; NVIDIA, Advanced Micron Devices (AMD) and Micron Technology (MU) all trade in a group and may take one more run at the lows. Short term it’s overbought, long term it’s a screaming buy.
Q: Will the ag crisis feed into the main economy?
A: It could. All ag storage in the country is full, so farmers are putting the new harvest under tarps where it is rotting away and then claiming on their insurance. If you add another harvest on top of that it will be a disaster of epic proportions. China is America’s largest ag customer. It took decades of investment to develop them a client, and they are never coming back in their previous size. The trust is gone. Bankruptcies are at a ten-year high and that could eventually take down some regional banks which in turn hurt the big banks. However, ag is only 2% of the US economy, so it won’t cause the next recession. It’s really more of a story of local suffering.
Q: If you give out stop and not filled at stop price, when and how do you adjust to exit?
A: I would quickly enter it and if you’re not done quickly move it down five cents. If you don’t get done, do it again. There is no way to know where the real market is in until you put in a real order. There are 11 different option exchanges online and they are changing prices every millisecond. Furthermore, spread trades can get one leg done on one exchange and the second leg done on another, so prices can be all over the place.
Q: What data goes into the Mad Hedge Market Timing Index and how do you use it to time the markets?
A: It uses a basket of 30 different indicators which constantly changes according to what generates the highest return in a 30 year backtest. It includes a lot of conventional data points, like moving averages and RSIs, along with some of our own internal proprietary ones. When we are getting a reading below 20, we are looking to buy. Any reading over 65 and we are looking to sell, and over 80 we will only go short. It works like a charm. It paid for my new Tesla! I hope this helps.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 29, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHATS BEHIND THE NVIDIA MELTDOWN),
(QRVO), (MU), (SWKS), (NVDA), (AMD), (INTC), (AAPL), (AMZN), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (FB)
Great company – lousy time to be this great company.
That is the least I can say for GPU chip company Nvidia (NVDA) who issued a cataclysmic earnings alert figuring it was better to spill the negative news now to start the healing process earlier.
This stock is a great long-term hold because they are the best of breed in an industry fueled by a secular tailwind in GPUs.
But this doesn’t mean they will be gifted any freebies in the short term and, sad to say, they have been dragged, kicking and screaming, into the heart of the trade skirmish along with Apple (AAPL) and buddy Intel (INTC) amongst others.
The best thing a tech company can have going for them right now is to have no China exposure, that is why I am bullish on software companies such as PayPal, Twilio, and Microsoft.
I called the chip disaster back in summer of 2018 recommending to stay away like the plague.
The climate has worsened since then and like I recently said – don’t buy the dead cat bounce in chips because the bad news isn’t baked into the story yet or at least not fully baked.
It’s actually a blessing in disguise if banned in China if you are firms such as Facebook (FB), Google (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN).
I recently noted that a material end to this trade war could be decades away and the tech world is already being reconfigured around the monopoly board as we speak with this in mind.
Where do things stand?
The US administration took a scalp when Chinese communist backed DRAM chip maker Fujian Jinhua effectively shuttered its doors.
Victory in a minor battle will likely embolden the US administration into continuing its aggressive stance if it is working.
If you forgot who Fujian Jinhua was… they are the Chinese chip company who were indicted by the U.S. Justice Department for stealing intellectual property (IP) from Boise-based chip behemoth Micron (MU).
The way they allegedly stole the information was by poaching Taiwanese chip engineers who would divulge the secrets to the Chinese company buttressing China in pursuing their hellbent goal of being able to domestically supply enough quality chips in order to stop buying American chips in the future.
Officially, China hopes to ramp up its self-sufficiency ratio in the semiconductor industry to at least 70% by 2025 which dovetails nicely with the broader goal of Chinese tech hegemony.
Fujian Jinhua was classified as a strategically important firm to the Chinese state and knocking the wind out of their sails will have a reverberating effect around the Chinese tech sector and will deter Taiwanese chip engineers to act as a go-between.
According to a research note by Zhongtai Securities, Jinhua’s new plant was expected to have flooded the market with 60,000 chips per month and generate annual revenue of $1.2 billion directly competing with Micron with their own technology borrowed from Micron themselves.
Jinhua’s overall goal was to support a monthly manufacturing target of 240,000 chips spoiling Chinese tech companies with a healthy new stream of state-subsidized allotment of chips needed to keep costs down and build the gadgets and gizmos of the future.
For the most part, it was unforeseen that the US administration had the gall and calculative nous to combat the nurtured Chinese state tech sector.
However, I will say, it makes sense to pick off the Chinese tech space now before they stop needing American chips at all in 5-7 years and when all remnants of leverage disappear.
The short-term pain will be felt in the American chip tech sector which is evident with the horrid news Nvidia reported and the aftermath seen in the price action of the stock.
Nvidia expects top line revenue to shrink by $500 million or half a billion – it’s been a while since I saw such a massive cut in forecasts.
Half of revenue comes from the Middle Kingdom and expect huge downgrades from Apple on its earnings report too.
If this didn’t scare you, what will?
These short-term headwinds are worth it to the American tech sector as a whole.
To eventually ward off a future existential crisis when Chinese GPU companies start offering outside business actionable high quality chips curated with borrowed technology, funded by artificially low debt, and for half the price is worth its weight in gold.
The same story is playing out with Huawei around the globe but at the largest scale possible.
This is what happens when the foreign tech sector is up against companies who have access to unlimited state loans and is part of wider communist state policy to take over foundational technology globally.
I will also emphasize that the Chinese communist party has a seat on every board at any notable Chinese tech company influencing decisions at the top even more than the upper management.
If upper management stopped paying heed to the communist voice at the table, they would be out of business in a jiffy.
Therefore, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei standing at a podium promulgating a scenario where Huawei is operating freely from the government is what dreams are made of.
It’s not a prognosis rooted in reality.
The communist party are overlords breathing down the neck of Huawei after any material decisions that can affect the company and subsequently the government’s position in the interconnected world.
The China blue print essentially entails a pan-Amazon strategy emphasizing large volume – low cost strategy.
Amazon was successful because investors would throw money at the company until it scaled up and wiped the competition away in one fell swoop.
Amazon is on a destructive path bludgeoning every American second-tier mall reshaping the economic world.
The unintended consequences have been profound with the ultimate spoils falling at the feet of CEO and Founder of Amazon Jeff Bezos, his phalanx of employees as well as Amazon stockholders which are mostly comprised of wealthy investors.
Well, Chairman Xi Jinping and the Chinese communist party are attempting to Amazon the American tech sector and the broader American economy.
The American economy could potentially become the second-tier mall in this analogy and the game playing out is an existential crisis for the likes of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Nvidia, Micron, Intel and the who’s who of semiconductor chips.
If stocks reacted on a 30-year timeframe, Nvidia would be up 15% today instead of reaching a trading day nadir of 17%.
What is happening behind the scenes?
American tech companies are moving supply chains or planning to move supply chains out of China.
This is an epochal manifestation of the larger trade war and a decisive development in the eyes of the American administration.
In fact, many industry analysts understand a logjam of failed trade solutions as a bonus to the Chinese.
However, I would argue the complete opposite.
Yes, the Chinese are waiting out the current administration to deal with a new one that might be more lenient.
But that will take another two years and publicly listed companies grappling with the performance of quarterly earnings don’t have two years like the Chinese communist party.
And who knows, the next administration might even seize the baton from the current administration and clamp down even more.
Be careful what you wish for.
Taiwanese company and biggest iPhone assembler Foxconn Technology Group is discussing plans to move production away from China to India.
India is a democratic country, the biggest democracy in Asia, and is a staunch ally of the United States.
CEOs of Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), some of Silicon Valley heavyweights, are from India and American tech companies have been making generational tech investments in India recently.
Warren Buffet even invested $300 million in an Indian FinTech company Paytm.
When you read stories about India being the new China, well it’s happening faster than anyone thought and on a scale that nobody thought, and the underlying catalyst is the overarching trade war fueling this quick migration.
Apple is already constructing low grade iPhones in India in the state of Karnataka since 2017, and these were the first iPhones made in India.
They won’t be the last either.
Wistron, major Taiwanese original design manufacturer, has since started producing the iPhone 6S model there as well.
And it is no surprise that China and its artificially priced smartphones have undercut Samsung and Apple in India grabbing the market share lead.
This is happening all over the emerging world.
And don’t forget if U.S. President Donald Trump revisits banning American chip companies supply channels to Chinese telecom company ZTE. That would be 70,000 Chinese jobs out the window in a nanosecond.
The current administration has drier powder than you think and this would hasten the deceleration of the Chinese economy and also move forward the American recession into 2019 boding negative for tech shares.
Therefore, I would recommend balancing out a trading portfolio with overweights and underweights because it is obvious that tech stocks won’t be coupled to a gondola trajectory to the peak of the summit this year.
It’s a stockpickers market this year with visible losers and winners.
And if China does get their way in the tech war, American chip companies will eventually become worthless squeezed out by mainland competition brought down by their own technology full circle.
They are first on the chopping board because their overreliance on Chinese revenue streams for the bulk of sales.
Among these companies that could go bust are Broadcom (AVGO), Qualcomm (QCOM), Qorvo (QRVO), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and as you expected Micron and Nvidia who are one of the main protagonists in this story.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 28, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BUY DIPS IN SEMIS, NOT TOPS),
(XLNX), (LRCX), (AMD), (TXN), (NVDA), (INTC), (SOXX), (SMH), (MU), (QQQ)
Don’t buy the dead cat bounce – that was the takeaway from a recent trading day that saw chips come alive with vigor.
Semiconductor stocks had their best day since March 2009.
The price action was nothing short of spectacular with names such as chip equipment manufacturer Lam Research (LRCX) gaining 15.7% and Texas Instruments (TXN) turning heads, up 6.91%.
The sector was washed out as the Mad Hedge Technology Letter has determined this part of tech as a no-fly zone since last summer.
When stocks get bombed out at these levels - sometimes even 60% like in Lam Research’s case, investors start to triage them into a value play and are susceptible to strong reversal days or weeks in this case.
The semi-conductor space has been that bad and tech growth has had a putrid last six months of trading.
In the short-term, broad-based tech market sentiment has turned positive with the lynchpins being an extremely oversold market because of the December meltdown and the Fed putting the kibosh on the rate-tightening plan.
Fueled by this relatively positive backdrop, tech stocks have rallied hard off their December lows, but that doesn’t mean investors should take out a bridge loan to bet the ranch on chip stocks.
Another premium example of the chip turnaround was the fortune of Xilinx (XLNX) who rocketed 18.44% in one day then followed that brilliant performance with another 4.06% jump.
A two-day performance of 22.50% stems from the underlying strength of the communication segment in the third quarter, driven by the wireless market producing growth from production of 5G and pre-5G deployments as well as some LTE upgrades.
Give credit to the company’s performance in Advanced Products which grew 51% YOY and universal growth across its end markets.
With respect to the transformation to a platform company, the 28-nanometer and 16-nanometer Zynq SoC products expanded robustly with Zynq sales growing 80% YOY led by the 16-nanometer multiprocessor systems-on-chip (MPSoC) products.
Core drivers were apparent in the application in communications, automotive, particularly Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) as well as industrial end markets.
Zynq MPSoC revenues grew over 300% YOY.
These positive signals were just too positive to ignore.
Long term, the trade war complications threaten to corrode a substantial chunk of chip revenues at mainstay players like Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Not only has the execution risk ratcheted up, but the regulatory risk of operating in China is rising higher than the nosebleed section because of the Huawei extradition case and paying costly tariffs to import back to America is a punch in the gut.
This fragility was highlighted by Intel (INTC) who brought the semiconductor story back down to earth with a mild earnings beat but laid an egg with a horrid annual 2019 forecast.
Intel telegraphed that they are slashing projections for cloud revenue and server sales.
Micron (MU) acquiesced in a similar forecast calling for a cloud hardware slowdown and bloated inventory would need to be further digested creating a lack of demand in new orders.
Then the ultimate stab through the heart - the 2019 guide was $1 billion less than initially forecasted amounting to the same level of revenue in 2018 - $73 billion in revenue and zero growth to the top line.
Making matters worse, the downdraft in guidance factored in that the backend of the year has the likelihood of outperforming to meet that flat projection of the same revenue from last year offering the bear camp fodder to dump Intel shares.
How can firms convincingly promise the back half is going to buttress its year-end performance under the drudgery of a fractious geopolitical set-up?
This screams uncertainty.
Love them or crucify them, the specific makeup of the semiconductor chip cycle entails a vulnerable boom-bust cycle that is the hallmark of the chip industry.
We are trending towards the latter stage of the bust portion of the cycle with management issuing code words such as “inventory adjustment.”
Firms will need to quickly work off this excess blubber to stoke the growth cycle again and that is what this strength in chip stocks is partly about.
Investors are front-running the shaving off of the blubber and getting in at rock bottom prices.
Amalgamate the revelation that demand is relatively healthy due to the next leg up in the technology race requiring companies to hem in adequate orders of next-gen chips for 5G, data servers, IoT products, video game consoles, autonomous vehicle technology, just to name a few.
But this demand is expected to come online in the late half of 2019 if management’s wishes come true.
To minimize unpredictable volatility in this part of tech and if you want to squeeze out the extra juice in this area, then traders can play it by going long the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) or VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH).
In many cases, hedge funds have made their entire annual performance in the first month of January because of this v-shaped move in chip shares.
Then there is the other long-term issue of elevated execution risks to chip companies because of an overly reliant manufacturing process in China.
If this trade war turns into a several decades affair which it is appearing more likely by the day, American chip companies will require relocating to a non-adversarial country preferably a democratic stronghold that can act as the fulcrum of a global supply chain channel moving forward.
The relocation will not occur overnight but will have to take place in tranches, and the same chip companies will be on the hook for the relocation fees and resulting capex that is tied with this commitment.
That is all benign in the short term and chip stocks have a little more to run, but on a risk reward proposition, it doesn’t make sense right now to pick up pennies in front of the steamroller.
If the Nasdaq (QQQ) retests December lows because of global growth falls off a cliff, then this mini run in chips will freeze and thawing out won’t happen in a blink of an eye either.
But if you are a long-term investor, I would recommend my favorite chip stock AMD who is actively draining CPU market share from Intel and whose innovation pipeline rivals only Nvidia.
