The narrative that China is a decade behind in cutting-edge technology compared to Silicon Valley is total B.S. at this point.
It couldn’t be further from the truth.
First, it was the smartphone where Apple built an insurmountable lead for the Chinese.
Second, it was the EV and no Chinese company would ever surpass Tesla.
China is now leading in both EVs and smartphones at this point.
This narrative has been debunked and today is the final nail in the coffin.
Now…enter the wrath of artificial intelligence where reports indicate China has produced that aha moment in which China has managed to output the same quality of AI without Nvidia supercomputers and without a $100 million data centers.
Imagine the sigh of relief from American households that won’t have to deliver an electricity wealth transfer to Silicon Valley.
If this holds true, the Chinese have played the CEO of ChatGPT Sam Altman like a fiddle.
It’s extremely worrisome that Altman has irked Elon Musk so badly that it is widely known that Altman is Musk’s arch-enemy.
For everyone who doesn’t know, the app is called DeepSeek and it is now #1 in the Appstore.
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a multi-trillion rout in US and European technology stocks.
DeepSeek is a visible challenge to costlier models like OpenAI and raising suspicious if Sam Altman is just taking Silicon Valley on a ride for his gargantuan bank account.
Nvidia tanked 17% by mid-day and clearly would be one of the companies hurt by the Chinese.
DeepSeek shows that it is possible to develop powerful AI models that cost less and can potentially derail the investment case for the entire AI supply chain, which is driven by high spending from a small handful of hyperscalers.
The AI model from DeepSeek — founded by quant fund chief Liang Wenfeng — is widely seen as better than ChatGPT and will no doubt be a better value.
The DeepSeek product is deeply problematic for the thesis that the significant capital expenditure and operating expenses that Silicon Valley has incurred are the most appropriate way to approach the AI trend.
The DeepSeek release raises new doubts, challenging the notion that China’s AI technology is a decade behind US counterparts. Washington’s trade restrictions had kept the most cutting-edge chips out of China’s hands, but DeepSeek’s model was built using open-source technology that is easy to access.
The biggest and most important takeaway from this chaos is that Nvidia is now canceled as the best buy and holds long-term tech stock.
The newfound competition instills pricing issues for Nvidia and raises questions about the very model they support.
Many asset classes have become overly expensive and the narrow reason for the pricing to stay higher is the lack of competition.
So what now?
Although I don’t expect Nvidia’s stock to experience a straight move lower, this puts a hard ceiling on any meaningful stock appreciation for the rest of 2025.
This new development also puts hard ceilings on other AI chip stocks looking to benefit from those higher premiums.
Then the question of what is the next big thing to come from Silicon Valley is again thrust to the fore.
Innovation has been behind in California and Altman is looking less credible by the day.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-01-27 14:02:102025-01-27 16:03:03DeepSeek Puts A Scare Into Tech Stocks
Expect a half a trillion dollar investment into data centers.
This should propel AI stocks higher and the new administration understands the last leg the tech market is standing on is the AI bubble.
It is debatable to say if these tech stocks are in a bubble, but they aren’t cheap and today’s announcement puts fuel in the fire forcing stock prices to go nowhere but up.
OpenAI says that it will team up with Japanese conglomerate SoftBank and with Oracle to build multiple data centers for AI in the U.S.
The joint venture, called the Stargate Project, will begin with a large data center project in Texas and eventually expand to other states. The companies expect to commit $100 billion to Stargate initially and pour up to $500 billion into the venture over the next four years.
SoftBank chief Masayoshi Son, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison were in attendance.
Microsoft is also involved in Stargate as a tech partner. So are Arm and Nvidia.
The data centers could house chips designed by OpenAI someday. The company is said to be aggressively building out a team of chip designers and engineers, and working with semiconductor firms Broadcom and TSMC to create an AI chip for running models that could arrive as soon as 2026.
Abilene, Texas will be Stargate’s first site, and OpenAI says that Stargate, by 2029, could scale up to 20 data center installations.
Microsoft, which recently announced it is on track to spend $80 billion on AI data centers showing it’s an industry-wide trend.
It’s clear to everyone and also investors that propping up the AI tech world is a must because the drop in shares would be devastating to not only the retail holders but also to corporate America.
Much of the recent inflation has been paid by stock appreciation and history has shown that the current US president highlights accelerating stock prices as a barometer of US economic health.
The interesting part of this is building a slew of data centers doesn’t translate into revenue one-to-one.
The jury is still out there whether there will be a revenue windfall out of it.
At the very minimum, we know that data centers will make the price of electricity higher for everyone because they guzzle energy non-stop.
The revenue accrued will need to be higher than the cost of electricity or this is just another massive transfer from retail consumers to the corporate tech world.
Ironically, Elon Musk tweeted that the money isn’t available right now leading the investor to believe this is more about keeping the AI bubble alive than anything else.
Rumor has it that Musk doesn’t really like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman who took OpenAI from non-profit to for-profit and harvesting a multi-billion dollar payday.
Until now, kicking potential revenue creation can down the road is the order of the day, and as long as investors can buy this idea that AI data centers will mean higher revenue opportunities, then shareholders will still pile into this bubble until they don’t.
That is why stocks like Nvidia, Oracle, and ARM are seeing double digit gains in just one day.
Buy these three companies on the dip until the AI bubble pops.
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the January 15 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Sarasota, Florida.
Q:What would I recommend right now for my top five stocks?
A: That’s easy. Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), JP Morgan (JPM), Citibank (C), and Bank of America (BAC). There's five right there—the top five financials that are coming out of a decade-long undervaluation. A lot of the regional banks, which are also viable, are still trading to discount the book value, which all the financials used to trade out only a couple of years ago. Of course, JP Morgan's reaching a two-year return of around double, but the news just keeps getting better and better, so buy the dips. Buy every sell-off in financials and you will be a happy camper for the year.
Q: What do you think about Robin Hood (HOOD)?
A: Well, the trouble with Robinhood is it’s very highly dependent on crypto volumes. If you think crypto is going to go higher and volumes will increase, this is a great play. However, you get another 95%, out-of-the-blue selloff in crypto like we had three years ago and Coinbase (COIN) will follow it right back down again. On the last downturn, there were concerns that Coinbase would go under, so if you can hack the volatility, take a shot, but not with my money. I have the largest banks in the country that are about to double again; I would much rather be buying LEAPS in that area and getting anywhere from 100% to 1000% percent returns on a 2-year view—much more attractive risk-reward for me. And they pay a dividend.
Q: How do you define a 5% correction?
A: Well, if you have a $100 stock and it drops $5, that is a 5% correction.
Q: Can you please explain what Tesla 2X leverage actually means and is it a way to trade Tesla as an alternative?
A: I steer people away from the 2Xs because the tracking error is really quite poor. You only get 1.5% of the upside, but 2.5 times the downside over time. These are more day trading vehicles. They take out huge fees, and huge dealing spreads—it's a very expensive way to trade. Far cheaper is just to buy Tesla (TSLA) stock on margin at 2 to 1, and there your tracking error is perfect, your fees are much lower, and you just have the margin interest rate to pay on the position, which is 6% a year or 50 basis points a month. No reason to make the ETF people richer than they already are. They keep coining these products—1x, 2x, 3x long shorts on every one of the high volume stocks, and it sucks a lot of people in, but it's higher risk, lower returns for the amount of money you're risking as far as I'm concerned. So that's the way to do it.
Q: What are your projections for Nvidia (NVDA)?
A: I think not just Nvidia, but all of the big tech is going to be kind of trading in a sideways range for a while, maybe 6 months, and then we get an upside breakout if you get the earnings breakout, which we are all expecting. AI is still in business, and still growing gangbusters. There are always a lot of Cassandra's out there saying that we're going to crash anytime, and I just don't see it. I know a lot of these people, I'm in touch with a lot of the companies, I see Beta releases of all products, the consumer products, and…the slowdown just ain't happening, I'm sorry. And I've been through a lot of these tech booms over the last 40 years, and this is only showing signs of just getting started.
Q: How come Tesla (TSLA) is up and down $30 every couple of days?
A: Number one, it is the most actively traded stock in the market right now. It has implied volatility on the options of 70%, which is really the highest in the market of any individual stock. That just creates immense amounts of trading by options traders, volatility traders, by call writing, and 2x and 3x ETF long and short players. All of the financial engineering and new products that we see all gravitate toward the high volume stocks like Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple because that's where the money is being made. Some days Tesla accounts for 25% of all the market trading. Financial engineers go where the action is, where the volume is, where the customer demand is.
Q: Why do you expect only 5% to 10% corrections if the Fed rate cuts get completely priced out?
A: I don't expect the Fed to keep cutting interest rates. We should get another rate cut this year, and that may be it for the year. If inflation comes back (and of course, all of the new administration’s policies are highly inflationary) it’s just a question of how long it takes for it to hit the system.
Q: Do you believe I should hold all of my municipal bonds (MUB) with 10-year call protection at 4.75%?
A: On a tax-adjusted basis, I would say yes. You know, stock markets may peak and deliver a zero return, and in that situation, muni bonds are very attractive. The nice thing about bonds is that you hold on to maturity—you get 100% of your money back. With stocks, that is not always the case. Stocks you have to trade because the volatility can be tremendous. And in fact, what I do is I keep all of my money in one year Treasury bills. Last time I did this, which was in September, I locked in a one-year return for 5%.
Q: Would you prefer to buy deep in the money and put spreads on top of any rally?
A: Absolutely yes. If this is a real trading year, you not only buy the dips, you sell the rallies. We did almost no real selling last year. We really only did it in June and July because the market essentially went straight up, except for two hickeys. This could be the year of not only call sprints but put spreads as well. You just have to remember to sit down when the music stops playing.
Q: You say buy the dips; what would your dip be in JP Morgan (JPM)?
A: Well lower volatility stocks by definition have smaller drawdowns. JP Morgan (JPM) is one of those, so I'd be very happy to buy a 5% dip in JP Morgan. If it drops more, you double the position on a 10% pullback. Higher volatility stocks like Tesla—I'm really waiting for 10% or 20% corrections. You saw I just bought a 22% correction twice in Tesla with it down 110 points. One of those trades is at max profit right now and the other one has probably made half its money since yesterday. That is the game. The amount of dip you buy is directly related to the volatility of the stock.
Q: Should you let your cash go uninvested?
A: Yes, never let your cash go uninvested just sitting as cash. Your broker will take that money and put it in 90-day T-bills and keep the money for himself. So buy 90-day T-bills as a cash management tool—they're paying about 4.21% right now— and you can always use those as collateral under my positions on margin.
Q: Is Home Depot (HD) a buy on the LA reconstruction story?
A: I would say no, Los Angeles is probably no more than 5% of Home Depot's business—the same with Lowe's (LOW). A single city disaster is not enough to move the stock for more than a few days, and the fact is: Home Depot is mostly dependent on home renovation, which tends not to happen during dead real estate markets because, you know, it takes the flippers out of the market. It really needs lower interest rates to get Home Depot back up to new highs.
Q: Do you expect a big market move at the end of the day when the Fed makes its announcement?
A: The market has basically fully discounted the move on January 28, and if anything happens, there'll probably be a “sell on the news.” So, I expect we could give up a piece of the recent performance on the announcement of the Fed news.
Q: Should we expect trade alerts for LEAPS coming from you?
A: Absolutely, yes. However, LEAPS are something you really only want to do on down moves. If we don't get any, we'll just do the front-month call spreads. You can still make 10%, 20% a month just concentrating on financial call spreads.
Q: What would have happened to our accounts if we kept the (TLT) $82-$85 iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) call spread and it went all the way down to $82?
A: The value of your investment goes to zero. Of course, it was declining at a very slow rate, and the $80: you might have gotten a bounce off the $85 level. But if the inflation number had come in hot, as had all other economic data of the last month, then you could have easily gotten a gap down to $82 and lost your entire investment, because two days is not enough time to expiration to recover that 3-point loss. And that's why I stopped out yesterday.
Q: Didn't David Tepper buy China (FXI)?
A: With both hands last September, yes he did. And my bet is he got out before he got killed. I mean, that's what hedge funds do. He probably got out close to cost, and you likely won't see him promoting China again anytime in the near future.
Q: I have June 530 puts on the S&P 500, should I get rid of them?
A: Yes, I don't see a big crash coming. You probably paid a lot going all the way out to June, and it's probably not worth hanging on to. Put spreads are the better way to go—that cuts your cost by two-thirds and those you only want to put on at market tops.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, TECHNOLOGY LETTER, or JACQUIE'S POST, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Good Trading,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
It is uncommon when private tech companies lash out at the government like they are some kind of whipping boy.
Silicon Valley is so successful - they don’t need to target government policy.
Anger comes in many forms but openly criticizing the government could get you in some hot water in places like China.
Just look at Alibaba founder Jack Ma who was taken out to pasture by the Chinese communist party.
Criticism is usually reserved in Silicon Valley because subsidies and relationships are preserved to fight another day.
Nvidia finally felt it was time to let loose on the disastrous Biden Administration as the chip company gets dragged into politics just like almost everything else in American society.
Nvidia viciously criticized new chip export restrictions that are expected to be announced soon, saying the White House was trying to undercut the incoming Trump administration by imposing last-minute rules.
It’s is arguable that many strategic moves the current administration executes are to stymy the next administration.
Private tech companies are just collateral damage and Nvidia is finding that out the hard way.
The looming changes would cap the sale of US artificial intelligence chips on both a country and company basis — a move that would more tightly limit exports to most of the world.
The extreme ‘country cap’ policy will affect mainstream computers in countries around the world, doing nothing to promote national security but rather pushing the world to alternative technologies.
Nvidia has been the biggest beneficiary of a surge in AI spending over the past two years, helping turn the once-niche company into the world’s most valuable chipmaker. Its shares nearly tripled last year, following a 239% gain in 2023.
Speaking at the CES conference in Las Vegas this week, Huang said he expected Trump to bring less regulation.
I can now say with more certainty that tech stocks appear to be in a bubble and it doesn’t help that an obstructionist government is putting in limits to how much they can sell abroad.
Globalization has accelerated to some extreme that many people and businesses are still having a tough time wrapping their minds around what happened.
Putting a cap on the number of AI chips Nvidia can export will just gift the advantage to another competitor.
The Chinese have never played by the rules with their state subsidies and stealing of intellectual property.
These are several hallmarks of their national heavyweights.
Hamstringing Nvidia is the worst thing the US government could do minus shutting them down completely.
In general, the amount of bureaucratic nonsense, dysfunction, red tape, and needless saber-rattling is starting to hit the bottom line of Silicon Valley.
This could all bring forward a selloff from this tech bubble we are currently in.
Granted, I will acknowledge that the federal government isn’t only targeting the tech sector and the inefficiencies run across a wide swath of the U.S. economy system.
But that doesn’t make it better.
We are priced to the point where AI is guaranteed to become our savior and I would say to hold on because we are nowhere near certainty and there are very few use cases of all this AI data center investment.
We are trading at highs and the government going after Silicon Valley will hasten a sharp selloff in expensive tech stocks.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00april@madhedgefundtrader.comhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngapril@madhedgefundtrader.com2025-01-10 14:02:402025-01-10 13:40:13Nvidia Gets Put In Place
Let me introduce to you one of the hottest trends in tech.
It has been on the tip of everyone's tongue for years, and that might be an understatement, but the interaction of the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) offers companies a wide range of advantages.
In order to get the most out of IoT systems and to be able to interpret data, the symbiosis with AI is almost a must.
If the Internet of Things is merged with data analysis based on artificial intelligence, this is referred to as AIoT.
Moving forward, expect this to be the hot new phrase in an industry backdrop where investors love these hot catchphrases and monikers.
What is this used for?
Lower operating costs, shorter response times through automated processes, and helpful insights for business development are just a few of the notable advantages of the Internet of Things.
AI also offers a variety of business benefits: it reduces errors, automates tasks, and supports relevant business decisions. Machine learning as a sub-area of AI also ensures that models – such as neural networks – are adapted to data. Based on the models, predictions and decisions can be made. For example, if sensors deliver new data, they can be integrated into the existing modules.
The Statista Research Institute assumes that there will be 200 billion networked devices by 2026.
This is exactly where AI comes into play, which generates predictions based on the sensor values received.
However, many companies are still unable to properly benefit from the potential of connecting IoT and AI, or AIoT for short.
They are often skeptical about outsourcing their data - especially in terms of security and communication.
In part because the increased number of networked devices, which requires the connection of IoT and AI, increases the security requirements for infrastructure and communication structure enormously.
It is not surprising that companies are unsettled: Industrial infrastructures have grown historically due to constantly increasing requirements and present companies with completely new challenges, which manifest themselves, for example, in an increasing number of networked devices. With the combination of IoT and AI, many companies are venturing into relatively new territory.
By connecting IoT and AI, a continuous cycle of data collection and analysis is developing.
But, companies can no longer deny the advantages of AIoT because this technical combination makes networked devices and objects even more useful.
Based on the insights generated by the models, those responsible can make decisions more easily and reliably predict future events. In this way, a continuous cycle of data collection and analysis develops. With predictive maintenance, for example, production companies can forecast device failures and thus prevent them.
The combination of the two technologies also makes sense from the safety point of view: continuous monitoring and pattern recognition help to identify failure probabilities and possible malfunctions at an early stage – potential gateways can thus be better identified and closed in good time.
The result: companies optimize their processes, avoid costly machine failures, and at the same time reduce maintenance costs and thus increase their operational efficiency.
In this way, IoT and AI represent a profitable fusion: While AI increases the benefit of existing IoT solutions, AI needs IoT data in order to be able to draw any conclusions at all.
AIoT is, therefore, a real gain for companies of all sizes. They thus optimize processes, are less prone to errors, improve their products, and thus ensure their competitiveness in the long term.
Some hardware, software, and semiconductor stocks that will offer exposure into AIoT are Emerson Electric Co. (EMR), Garmin (GRMN), Ambarella (AMBA), Nvidia (NVDA), DexCom (DXCM), Cisco (CSCO), Intel (INTC), and Qualcomm (QCOM).
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
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