Global Market Comments
December 9, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD or WHY THE MAG SEVEN ARE FADING) plus (HOW TO GET A TESLA FOR FREE),
(NVDA), (GLD), (JPM), (BAC), (C),
(CCJ), (MS), (BLK) (TSLA), (TLT)
Global Market Comments
December 9, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD or WHY THE MAG SEVEN ARE FADING) plus (HOW TO GET A TESLA FOR FREE),
(NVDA), (GLD), (JPM), (BAC), (C),
(CCJ), (MS), (BLK) (TSLA), (TLT)
First of all, I have to apologize for skipping the last Monday Global Strategy Letter, the highlight of my writing week.
I usually write this letter on weekends, but the last one followed Thanksgiving. I thought that 30 years in the future when I am on my deathbed, I’m definitely NOT going to be regretting that I didn’t write one more letter. Instead, I will be asking myself, “Why didn’t I take an extra day off?”
There’s your answer.
Which leads us to the pressing question of the day. Why has the performance of the Magnificent Seven shares been fading since June? Largely, they have been drifting sideways, and Nvidia (NVDA) is down. Only Tesla has rocketed, thanks to an election push.
This is a big deal because all of you own the Mag Seven stocks as the bulk of your portfolios, with (NVDA) as the single largest position, thanks to spectacular performance (up 10X). This sector has buttered our bread very nicely, thank you very much, allowing Mad Hedge Fund Trader to outperform all others by a huge margin.
The reason is very simple. Their earnings growth rate relative to the rest of the market has been steadily declining. They delivered a 66% performance premium relative to the S&P 500 last year and 22% this year, compared to 3% for the rest of the market and 8% for the market as a whole. That drops to only 11% in 2025.
So, the Mag Seven will continue to perform but at a fraction of the pace of the last two years.
The slowdown is happening largely because these companies have gotten so big. You have three giants with $3 trillion-plus market capitalizations battling it out for the position as the world’s largest company (AAPL), (NVDA), and (MSFT). They are followed by Meta (META) is at $1.5 trillion, (GOOGL) is at $2 trillion, and (AMZN) at $2.2 trillion. Combined, they represent 35% of the total stock market.
That is a lot.
I’ll give you another interesting factoid.
There has not been a single 10% correction in the stock market this year. That has not happened since 1928. What happens when you skip corrections? They bunch up in the following year. We all know what happened in 1929. There has been a massive pull forward of performance from 2025 into 2024.
The bottom line is that we are going to have to work harder for our crust of bread in 2025 and get less of it in return. That is….unless you are a subscriber to the Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
Fortunately, we will still have plenty of new fish to fry. I jumped in with a 100% fully invested portfolio on day one of the new deregulation trend, up 19% in November alone. This has several more months to run.
After That? Ask me in March.
I learned a fascinating statistic the other day. The Labor Force Participation Rate for 75-year-olds and older has doubled to 9% of the total workforce since 1987. My barber is 85, and my seamstress is 84, and there are many more like them.
I happen to be one of these “Never Retirers”. They are going to have to pry my cold, dead fingers off my keyboard. Why quit taking tests when you already know all the answers? Never quitting also has health benefits in that it can substantially extend the quality and quantity of your life. I’ve had many billionaire hedge fund manager friends retire because they earned more money than they could ever possibly spend. All they do now is play golf or waste my time calling me looking for free stock tips.
I have another disincentive to retire. Some 15 people spread all over the US and around the world would lose their jobs. At some time or another, all five of my kids, aged 19-39, have worked for Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Others who own their own companies face the same predicament.
Unfortunately, the US tax system isn’t exactly set up for people like me. When I turn 73 in January, I will be forced to withdraw and pay the maximum income tax rate of 4% of my entire retirement funds, even though I don’t need them. Such is the price of a tax system that was designed in 1937, back when half of all men died before age 65.
However, there are those rare times when I am ready to throw in the towel and cash in my chips. That happens when a customer asks for a refund despite making a +75.25% profit this year. A particularly thick follower when it comes to understanding options trading strategies occasionally pushes me over the edge.
That’s when I look to my role model and mentor, Warren Buffet. He’s still working, and he’s 95.
If you’re worried about a market crash next year, one has already started. Rare Whiskey is down 40% by price and 34% by volume this year. Bottles such as the 50-year-old Macallan Lalique had been selling for as much as 50,000 pounds, while bottles of Bowmore’s First Edition have been going for 15,000 pounds. First, it was hedge fund managers trying to outbid each other. Then, wealthy Chinese piled in.
Overall, Scottish whiskey exports are off 18% this year, thanks to Brexit choking off European markets. Low interest rates had prompted investors to seek out unusual asset classes. But the bubble has popped. American whiskey prices have held up better thanks to the strong economy. But the current high interest rates have scotched that appetite as fixed income offers a more generous and stable return.
Who knows what they will collect next?
Finally, I would be remiss if I did not mention that Saturday was Pearl Harbor Day, December 7. Although the tragic 1941 attack happened before I was born, I know many people who were there on both sides and have accumulated dozens of stories. However, I do have a personal connection with this historic event.
I did my flight training at the Ford Island Naval Air Station. In the 1970’s, they used to say, “No heavy landings, please, because we still haven’t found all the Japanese bombs.”
While in the circuit, you could see the wreckage of the superstructure of the USS Arizona, the battleship that took a direct hit and took town 1,177 sailors. The location has always been kept secret by the Navy because they didn’t want fortune hunters selling souvenirs to the public.
But I know right where it is. Today, only 16 Pearl Harbor veterans survive.
In December, we have gained +1.10%. November proved to be our best month of the year, up +18.96%. My 2024 year-to-date performance is at an amazing +73.10%. The S&P 500 (SPY) is up +24.73% so far in 2024. My trailing one-year return reached a nosebleed +77.04%. That brings my 16-year total return to +749.73%. My average annualized return has recovered to an incredible +53.87%.
I maintained a 100% long-invested portfolio, betting that the market doesn’t drop below pre-election levels. That includes (JPM), (NVDA), (BAC), (C), (CCJ), (MS), (BLK) and a triple long in (TSLA). We are now so far in the money with all of our positions we can safely run them until the December 20 option expiration in 9 trading days, thanks to a Santa Claus rally, time decay, and falling volatility.
Some 63 of my 70 round trips, or 90%, were profitable in 2023. Some 74 of 94 trades have been profitable so far in 2024, and several of those losses were really break-even. That is a success rate of +78.72%.
Try beating that anywhere.
My Ten Year View – A Reassessment
When we have to substantially downsize our expectations of equity returns in view of the election outcome. My new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties, is now looking at a headwind. The economy will completely stop decarbonizing. Technology innovation will slow. Trade wars will exact a high price. Inflation will return. The Dow Average will rise by 600% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The new America will be far more efficient and profitable than the old.
My Dow 240,000 target has been pushed back to 2035.
On Monday, December 9 at 8:30 AM EST, the Consumer Inflation Expectations is out.
On Tuesday, December 10 at 8:30 AM, the NFIB Business Optimism Index is published.
On Wednesday, December 11 at 8:30 AM, the Consumer Price Index is printed.
On Thursday, December 12 at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index is announced.
On Friday, December 13 at 8:30 AM, US Import and Export Prices are published. At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Rig Count is printed.
As for me, I have proven yet again that if you buy Tesla shares, you get the car for free. That is the result of the triple-long-in-the-stock I egged followers into right after the election.
So when is the best time to buy a Tesla? That would be right now.
To meet yearend goals, Elon Musk always offers the best deals of the year every December. See below the offers I received yesterday of rock bottom prices, 0% financing, and free recharging. You can get the brand new Cybertruck for $99,990 and the slick Model S for a bargain $68,350.
The Tesla Model S1 (TSLA) has been rated by Consumer Reports magazine as the best car ever built, grabbing a covered 99 score out of 100. It has been ranked by the US Government Department of Transportation as the safest car ever built. Even competitors love the car.
So I decided to see if these vaunted claims were true and crash-test my own $162,500 high-performance Model X P100 on public streets.
Actually, it wasn’t I who made the decision. It was the harried housewife with four screaming kids in the back seat speaking on a cell phone while driving who made that call. She drove her GMC Silverado quad cab pickup truck straight into the side of my Tesla.
All I heard was a loud horn and a big slam as my car spun around 360 degrees. It was like going through aerobatic pilot school all over again.
I jumped out and asked if everyone was alright. They were. All I found were four deadly silent boys and a woman crying over the phone to her husband about how his brand-new truck had just gotten a small dent on the front bumper. I inspected the damage, took pictures (see below), and calculated that her repairs would run about $1,500.
Bottom line on the safety issue? I didn’t even know that I had been in an accident. The vehicle is essentially a giant crumple zone. But it comes at a high price.
All four ultra-thin racing tires tore off the wheels during the spin (expensive). That meant the custom-painted 21-inch wheels had to scrape along the pavement, destroying them (more expensive). After teaching the AAA tow truck guy how to drive it, he hauled it away.
It was then that I learned about the arcane world of fixing Teslas. Since the car is made out of aluminum, no neighborhood body shop can work on it, as it melts at a much lower temperature than steel. Standard welders are not allowed. There are, in fact, only three specialized niche repair shops in the entire San Francisco Bay Area that can work with this ultra-lightweight metal.
Brooks Auto Body of Oakland is one of them. When I stopped by to talk about the job, the owner, a 6-foot 6-inch Korean guy, was in too much of a good mood. I would find out why later. Behind him were 16 other Teslas in varying states of assembly.
News flash: These things are not cars. They are more like giant computers, with an 18-inch screen and a 1,100-pound battery. None of the components looked anything like car parts. Only the wheels belied any connection with transportation.
It took two months to finish the repairs. Since Tesla would only sign off on the car when it was perfect, it was sent back to the factory in Fremont three times for additional realignment and recalibration. The final bill came to $32,000. The good news is that my lithium-ion battery was fine, which would have cost an extra $30,000 to replace.
The really humiliating thing about the entire experience was that I had to drive a KIA Optima loaner until the Tesla was back in action. So, for eight weeks, my life was dull, mean, and brutish. Driving on the freeway, every nut and bolt made its presence felt. And I had to buy gas at those ugly places that sell cigarettes, chewing tobacco, and condoms! Yuck! Once you’ve had electric, you never go back.
All of which brings me to Tesla’s share price, which has just nearly tripled from $140 to $390 as hot money poured into the big momentum names. Let me tell you that the revolutionary vehicle is still wildly misunderstood, and the company has done a lousy job making its case.
The electric power source is, in fact, the least important aspect of the car. Here are 15 reasons that are more important:
1) The vehicle has 75% fewer parts than any other, massively reducing production costs. The drive train has 11 parts, compared to over 1,500 for conventional gasoline-powered transportation. Tour the factory, and it is eerily silent. There are almost no people, just a handful who service the German robots that put these things together.
2) No maintenance is required, as any engineer will tell you about electric motors. You just rotate the tires every 6,000 miles.
3) This means that no dealer network is required. There is nothing to fix.
4) If you do need to repair something, usually, it can be done over the phone. Rebooting the computer addresses most issues. If not, they will send a van to do an onsite repair for free.
5) The car runs at room temperature, not the 500 degrees, in standard internal combustion cars. This means that the parts last forever.
6) The car is connected to the Internet 24/7. Once a month, it upgrades its own software when you are sleeping. You jump in the car the next morning, and a message appears on your screen saying, “We just upgraded the following 20 Apps.” This is the first car I ever owned that improved itself with age, as I do myself.
7) This is how most of the recalls have been done as well, over the Internet while you are sleeping.
8) If you need to recharge at a public station, Tesla has the world’s largest charging network. Tesla has its own national network of superchargers that will top you up in 20 minutes and allow you to drive across the country. (I can’t wait to try out the one in Winnemucca, Nevada, on my next trip to Chicago). But hotels and businesses have figured out that electric car drivers are the kind of big-spending customers they want to attract. So, public stations have been multiplying like rabbits. When I first started driving my Nissan Leaf in 2010, there were only 25 charging stations in the Bay Area. There are now over 1,000. They even have them at Costco.
9) No engine means a lot more space for other things, like storage. You get two trunks, a generous one behind and a “frunk” in front.
10) Drive an electric car, and you can drive in the HOV commuter lanes as a single driver. This also won’t last forever, but it’s a nice perk now.
11) There is a large and growing market for all American-made products. Tesla has a far higher percentage of US parts (100%) than any of the big three (GM is only at 70%).
12) Since almost every part is made on the side at the Fremont factory, supply line disruptions are eliminated. Most American cars are over-dependent on Asian supply lines for parts and frequently fall victim to disruptions.
13) There are almost no controls, providing for more cost savings. Except for the drive train, windows, and turn signals, all vehicle controls are on the touch screen, like a giant iPhone 5s.
14) A number of readers have argued that Tesla really runs on coal, as this is still the source of 16.2% of the US power supply. However, if you program the car between midnight and 7:00 AM (one of my ideas that Tesla adopted in a recent upgrade), you are using electricity generated by the utilities to maintain grid integrity at night that otherwise goes unused and wasted. How much power is wasted like this in the US every night? Enough to recharge 150 million cars per night.
15) Oh yes, the car is good for the environment, a big political issue for at least half the country.
No machine made by humans is perfect. So, in the interest of full disclosure, here are a few things Tesla did not tell you before you bought the car.
1) There is no spare tire or jack, just an instant repair kit in a can.
2) The car weighs a staggering 3 tons, so conventional jacks don’t work. Lithium is heavy stuff.
3) The car is only 8 inches off the ground, so only a scissor jack works.
4) The 21-inch tires on the high-performance model are a special order. Get a blowout in the middle of nowhere, and you could get stranded for days. So if you plan to drive to remote places, Like Lake Tahoe, as I do, better carry a 19-inch spare in the “frunk” to get you back home.
5) If you let some dummy out in the boonies jack the car up the wrong way, he might puncture the battery and set it on fire. It will be a decade before many mechanics learn how to work with this advanced technology. The solution here is to put a hockey puck between the car and the jack. And good luck explaining what this is to a Californian.
6) With my Leaf, I always carried a 100-foot extension cord in the trunk. If power got low, I just stopped for lunch at the nearest sushi shop and plugged in for a charge. Not so with Tesla. You are limited to using their own 20-foot charging cable, or it won’t work. I haven’t found anyone from the company who can tell me why this is the case.
And guess what? Detroit is so far behind in developing this technology that they will never catch up. My guess is that they eventually buy batteries and drive trains from Tesla on a licensed basis, as Toyota (for the RAV4) and Daimler Benz (for the A-Class) already are. All of Detroit’s existing hybrid technologies are older versions similarly purchased from the Japanese (I bet you didn’t know that).
You might also go out and buy a Model S1 for yourself as well. It’s like driving a street-legal Formula 1 racecar and is a total blast. Just watch out for drivers of Silverado’s speaking on cell phones.
Good Luck and Good Trading,
]
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Not Much of a Wait at the Vacaville Supercharger
$1,500 Worth of Damage
$32,000 Worth of Damage
But the Motor Was Fine
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 2, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(STICK WITH ENTERPRISE TECH IN 2025)
(HPE), (DELL), (TSLA), (NVDA)
Although, on the surface, tech stocks might be performing quite well, we need to talk about an imminent issue that could affect them.
I would even say that I am quite surprised by how the year is panning out.
There was so much uncertainty going into this year, and the election was a brutal contest that was bitterly fought.
However, the election gave us a clear winner, triggering a short-term tsunami of capital into tech stocks with the likes of Tesla (TSLA) leading the charge.
Even institutional money from heavyweights like Blackrock and others poured into tech stocks like there was no tomorrow.
TSLA is up today again on more stock upgrades.
If one ever needed a skinny variety of reliable tech stocks, then investing capital in Nvidia, Tesla, and perhaps Netflix or a Meta would be a solid foundation.
It is not only the Midas touch in the tech world, with management at HP and Dell saying the computer and laptop business isn’t all too hot.
Revenue generated by Dell’s (DELL) PC business declined 1% to $12.1 billion in the fiscal third quarter, falling short of estimates. While sales in HP’s (HPE) PC unit rose 2% to $9.59 billion, missing forecasts.
The PC refresh cycle is pushing into next year (2025), said Dell management.
HP Chief Executive Officer Enrique Lores said in an interview that the release of Microsoft’s new edition of Windows software hasn’t fueled PC sales from corporate clients as quickly as in previous releases.
The market had seen a historic decline in recent years after a burst of demand for new laptops in the early months of the pandemic when students and corporate employees were stuck at home. While signs of a rebound began to materialize this year, shipments again dipped in the third quarter.
This type of narrative has been put in motion by the crowd who think a new administration and their immigration stance will cause rampant inflation in wages.
No doubt, a lot of changes will take place in the next 50 days and after, and that type of uncertainty could deliver us a sharp selloff if short-term pain is sensed by the market.
Comments from Best Buy already set a very low bar even lower, as the recession that was supposed to take place in 2018 could be sneaking up on us.
The unemployment rate is forecasted to peak at 4.4% and has been steadily trending higher, highlighting the weakening of the US consumer.
There is a good chance that in 2025, retail tech will be in a recession before enterprise tech and enterprise tech stocks will be the last bastion of a narrowing market growth.
The key signal to focus on is a big Bitcoin sell-off that could trigger a flight to safety.
As long as market action stays orderly, I expect the pain trade to go higher in tech stocks in an uneven way, and I would avoid any tech stocks directly connected to American retail shoppers.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 25, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TECH STOCKS COULD ENTER A RENAISSANCE)
(NVDA), (TSLA), ($COMPQ)
The consensus of AI and robotics only taking “blue-collar” jobs is now steadily morphing into a new type of rhetoric.
It was once seen that heavy labor, like Amazon’s robots hauling away heavy items in a warehouse, was the widespread case for robots and AI.
However, I’ve been talking to many industry experts who have privately confided that it could be white-collar jobs that receive the most dramatic cuts.
Think about it, can AI and a robot really do the same job as an HVAC repairman or even a plumber?
If tech is able to solve that level of complexity, then the sky is the limit for tech, but I don’t believe we are anywhere near that yet. It is more likely that people typing simple code into computers will be swapped out for an algorithm, which would be an easy one-to-one switch. Jobs that don’t require a physical presence will always be first in line to be cut.
AI has proven that it operates with limited common sense or street smarts, and in some jobs, these 2 skills are essential to performing well.
By analyzing over 24,000 AI-related patents filed between 2015 and 2022, the researchers were able to identify which occupations might be most affected by emerging AI technologies.
Surprisingly, some of the occupations with the highest scores were white-collar jobs requiring advanced education and specialized skills. Topping the list were cardiovascular technologists and technicians, sound engineering technicians, and nuclear medicine technologists. Other jobs at high risk of automation included air traffic controllers, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technologists, and even neurologists.
In the information technology sector, 47% of software developers’ tasks and 40% of computer programmers’ tasks were found to align closely with recent AI patents. These patents focused on automating programming tasks and developing workflows, suggesting that even highly skilled tech jobs may not be immune to AI’s influence.
The least likely to be impacted by AI in the near future tended to be blue-collar jobs requiring physical labor or manual dexterity, such as pile driver operators, dredge operators, and aircraft cargo handling supervisors.
Just looking at the new increases in amount of robots suggests that job replacement is coming thick and fast.
Slightly more than 10% of South Korea's workforce has been replaced with robots.
The country has increased its use of robots by 5% each year since 2018.
China, with 470 robots per 10,000 employees, has overtaken Germany and Japan and landed in third place behind Singapore.
The United States ranked 10th with 295 robots per 10,000 employees.
North America's robot density is 197 units per 10,000 employees – up 4.2%.
America has lost around half a million jobs to robots so far, but I believe this concept isn’t linear, and we won’t be able to just extrapolate our current trends into the future.
Once it rains, it will really pour.
It is no coincidence that software companies are firing software engineers in large groups. Silicon Valley has really trimmed the fat off the boat, taking the cue from Elon Musk firing 80% of Twitter and functioning meaningfully better.
I come back to this concept of tech companies operating with algorithms powered by AI with a few “managers” and executives.
We aren’t a few days or months from this coming to fruition, but we are years.
The complete overhaul in staff numbers would mean that tech stocks would enjoy a renaissance and rise 5X to 10X from today’s levels to the joy of shareholders.
American society has never held such a high portion of its wealth in tech stocks, and that will continue as tech stocks get bid up and tech companies doing anything under the sun to massage the stock higher.
Global Market Comments
November 25, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD or WHAT TO DO ABOUT NVIDIA), plus THE WORLD’S WORST INVESTOR),
(NVDA), (GLD), (JPM), (JPM), (NVDA), (BAC), (C),
(CCJ), (MS), (BLK) (TSLA), (TLT)
Boy, did I make the right move going into the election?
I always have a propensity to reduce risk going into a major event. Let the newbies stick their necks out. I’ll collect the low-hanging fruit afterward while trampling over their bodies. As they used to say at Morgan Stanley, “It’s the pioneers who get the arrows in their backs.”
So I went into the November 5 election with 70% cash and long JP Morgan (JPM), Nvidia (NVDA), and gold (GLD). On November 6, I quickly stopped out of gold at cost and let the other two run, which launched on major rallies driven by a new deregulation trend. I then converted the remaining cash into a deregulation portfolio.
The bottom line? Since the election, I have been able to run up a monster 18.05% profit in only 14 trading days. That works out to 1.29% a day, the most earned in the nearly 17-year history of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
Notice that no specific deregulation measures have been proposed. No action has been taken. What we are seeing in unrestrained buying is driven by beliefs, animal spirits, and unbounded optimism, which markets all love. Call it euphoria. The problem with euphoria is that it fades as easily as it starts. After the 2016 election, the euphoria lasted for four months, then the market died for three months.
We’ve heard a lot about deficit reduction in the coming years, and let me tell you that the bond market isn’t buying it for a second. Since September, Fed Funds futures markets have plunged from 350 basis points in interest rate cuts by June to only 150 basis points, and half of that has already been done. Even the December 25 basis point rate cut has shrunk to only a 50% probability.
And this is what the bond market has been sniffing out. Tax cuts, spending increases, mass deportation of minimum wage workers, and a trade war are all highly inflationary. The voters may buy it, but not bond investors, and the bond market is always right. All it sees is the National Debt rocketing from $35 trillion to $45 trillion in four years.
“Bond market vigilantes” is soon a term you will hear every day.
It's just a matter of time before we get a shocking, out-of-the-blue move-up in a monthly inflation report. That is when the stock market will crash, and bonds get taken out to the woodshed. Next to happen will be a US Treasury auction that fails, spiking interest rates across the board, which recently caused the British government to fall. Then, hello, recession. We will spend the next many months trading against that day. The new administration’s most important appointment will be the guy in charge of borrowing.
And let me tell you about the National Debt, which I learned all about in my years in the White House Press Corp. The Social Security budget now runs at $1.4 trillion a year in payments, while defense is at $825 billion, for a total spend of $2.225 trillion a year. On top of that, you have to add $1 trillion a year in existing interest payments on the outstanding debt.
Even if spending on these two items goes to ZERO, it would take 16 years to pay off the current National Debt. If the debt rises to $45 trillion in four years plus interest, it would take 22.5 years to pay off. And this is with the number of new retirees exploding thanks to the Baby Boomer generation and defense demands in all parts of the world rising by the day.
Cutting the deficit boils down to cutting Social Security, cutting defense, or cutting the tax subsidies for your largest donors (billionaires, the oil industry), which is why it is never going to happen. Any other spending is too small to move the needle.
One of my favorite tests for someone’s knowledge of the federal budget is to ask them how much the US gives away in foreign aid to poor countries every year, a number that gets wildly exaggerated by political parties. The guesses come in at anywhere from 1% to 10% of the total budget. The correct figure? $63.1 billion, or 0.94% of the total $6.7 trillion in US budget expenditures, or less than one-tenth of one percent. You have been warned. I’m going to give you a test the next time I run into you.
The current deficit is, in fact, a product of five successive tax CUTS (Kennedy, Reagan, Bush II, Trump 1, and soon to be Trump II), which now has far and away the lowest income tax rates in the industrialized world. Remember, before Kennedy, the Great Depression maximum marginal tax rate of 90% prevailed.
But you have to get around to know this. I know because I moved an entire hedge fund from London to San Francisco in 1994 to take advantage of lower tax rates and the emerging Internet boom. I saved millions.
Which leads us to the most important question of the day: what to do about Nvidia (NVDA), almost certainly the largest holding of everyone who reads this letter. The company delivered spectacular earnings as promised, but the shares sold off $12. In fact, (NVDA) has only risen by $13 since June, with a drawdown of 37%. Rising volatility with incremental gains is a sign that a stock is topping out. At a $3.6 trillion market capitalization, the spectacular share price gains of the past are no longer attainable. The Law of Large Numbers is kicking in.
I still believe that (NVDA) will rise next year, but not by 200%. Some 20% is more likely. Fortunately, there is something you can do about it. With an options implied volatility of 40%, you can sell short the December 20, 2024, $156 call options against your existing position for $2.20. If Nvidia rises above $156 and your stock gets called away, your net proceeds will be $158.20, and you will think you died and went to Heaven.
If it doesn’t rise above $156, sell the January call options, and you take in another $2.20. After several months, this starts to add up to a lot of money. Eventually, the implied volatility will fade, and this trade won’t be there anymore.
But it works now.
That’s what I would do.
In November, we have gained a breathtaking +17.38%, November is proving to be our largest month of the year. My 2024 year-to-date performance is at an amazing +70.42%. The S&P 500 (SPY) is up +24.73% so far in 2024. My trailing one-year return reached a nosebleed +71.07%, up an incredible $10 on the week. That brings my 16-year total return to +747.05%. My average annualized return has recovered to an incredible +53.68%.
I maintained a 100% long-invested portfolio, betting that the market doesn’t drop below pre-election levels. That includes (JPM), (NVDA), (BAC), (C), (CCJ), (MS), (BLK) and a triple long in (TSLA). My November position in (JPM) expired at max profit. We are now so far in the money with all of our positions we should make 27 basis points a day until the December 20 option expiration in 18 trading days, thanks to time decay and falling volatility.
Some 63 of my 70 round trips, or 90%, were profitable in 2023. Some 74 of 94 trades have been profitable so far in 2024, and several of those losses were really break-even. That is a success rate of +78.72%.
Try beating that anywhere.
My Ten-Year View – A Reassessment
We have to substantially downsize our expectations of equity returns in view of the election outcome. My new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties, is now looking at a headwind. The economy will completely stop decarbonizing. Technology innovation will slow. Trade wars will exact a high price. Inflation will return. The Dow Average will rise by 600% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The new America will be far more efficient and profitable than the old.
My Dow 240,000 target has been pushed back to 2035.
On Monday, November 25 at 8:30 AM EST, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is out.
On Tuesday, November 26 at 8:30 AM, the S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index is published. At 11:00 AM, the Minutes from the last Fed Meeting are announced.
On Wednesday, November 27, at 8:30 AM, the Core PCE Price Index is 11:00 AM EST. It is a half day for the stock market, which closes at 1:00 PM EST.
On Thursday, November 28, is a National holiday in the US for Thanksgiving.
On Friday, November 29, is Black Friday, and it is a half day for the stock market, which closes at 1:00 PM. At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Rig Count is printed.
Today, I thought I’d recall The World’s Worst Investor, who so happened to be my grandfather on my father’s side.
He was an immigrant from Sicily who joined the army during WWI to attain US citizenship lost an eye when he was mustard gassed on the Western Front in France. I recently obtained his military records from the Department of Defense and learned he was court-martialed for refusing to wash pots and pans at the front while blind!
After the war, the sight came back in one of Grandpa’s eyes, so he
bought a three-bedroom brick home on 76th Street in the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn street for $3,000, eventually raising four kids. Back then, there was a dairy farm across the street, and horse-drawn wagons delivered ice blocks door to door.
During the roaring twenties, an assortment of relatives chided him for avoiding the stock boom where easy fortunes were made trading on ten to one margin. When the 1929 crash came, all of them lost their homes. Grandpa finished off the basement, creating space for two entire families to move in. He had never bought a stock in his entire life.
Because Dad contracted malaria with the Marines on Guadalcanal during WWII, the old man moved the family to Los Angeles in 1947 for the dry, sunny weather. Unfortunately, my grandmother heard there were no lobsters on the west coast, so she packed two big Maine ones in a suitcase. By the time they got to Las Vegas, the smell was so bad they got kicked off the train. In the booming postwar economy, they had to wait a week to get new seats to LA.
That was enough time for a flimflam man to sell Grandpa five acres of worthless land for $500. Ten years later, my dad drove out to check out the investment. It was a tumbleweed-blown, jackrabbit and rattlesnake-ridden piece of land so far out of town that it had to be worthless. You couldn’t see downtown, even if you stood on the rusted-out model “T” Ford that occupied the site. After that, the parcel became the family joke, and Grandpa was ridiculed as the world’s worst investor.
Grandpa died of cancer in 1977 at the age of 78. What German shrapnel and gas failed to accomplish, 60 years of smoking two packs a day of non-filter Lucky Strikes did. The army gave him cigarettes for free during the war, and he never shook the addiction. Even at the end, he insisted that there was no “proof” that cigarettes caused cancer, which soldiers referred to as “coffin nails.”
His estate executor put the long-despised plot out of Sin City up for sale, and a bidding war ensued. Although the final price was never disclosed, it was thought to be well into eight figures. In the intervening 30 years, the city of Las Vegas had marched steadily westward towards Los Angeles, sending its value through the roof. The deal triggered a big fight among the heirs, those claiming he was the stupidest demanding the greatest share of the proceeds, the bad blood generated continuing to this day. It turns out the world’s worst investor was actually the best, we just didn’t know it.
What was the address of this fabled piece of real estate? Why, it is 3325 Las Vegas Blvd. South, the site today of the Venetian and Palazzo Hotels, home to the Dal Toro restaurant, the venue for the last Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Las Vegas strategy luncheon.
I’m sure Grandpa is laughing in his grave, in between smoles.
Bought for $500 in 1947
Postscript. One day in New York a few years ago, I had a few hours to spare waiting to board Cunard’s QEII to sail for Southampton, England.
So, I decided to check out the Bay Ridge address that I had heard so much about during my childhood. I took a limo over to Brooklyn and knocked on the front door. I was told the owner was expecting a plumber, so he let me straight in, not noticing my Brioni blue blazer nor the Cadillac stretch limo out front.
I told him about my family history with the property, but I could see from the expression on his face that he didn’t believe a single word.
Then, I told him about the relatives moving into the basement during the Great Depression. He immediately let me in and gave me a tour of the house. He told me that he had just purchased the home and had extensively refurbished it. When they tore out the walls in the basement, he discovered that the insulation was composed of crumpled-up newspapers from the 1930s, so he knew I was telling the truth.
I told him that Grandpa would be glad that the house was still in Italian hands. Could I enquire what he had paid for the house that sold in 1923 for $3,000? He said he bought it as a broken-down fixer-upper for a mere $775,000. And this was after the housing crash in 2011.
My Grandparents 1926
The Fabled Bay Ridge House Bought for $3,000
Good Luck and Good Trading,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
The top groups of tech companies ($COMPQ) are still growing around 4X more than the other listed companies, but that doesn’t mean they are sure-fire buy-and-hold stocks today.
In fact, there is a legitimate case that the gap between tech and the rest will narrow as we roll into 2025, making tech stocks marginally unattractive if a full-fledged rotation occurs.
I am not downplaying tech, but sometimes the sector needs a little breather or sideways correction.
Much of the over performance in 2024 has been breathtaking with the gem of the group Nvidia (NVDA).
I am not saying that there will be a non-tech Nvidia-like firm sprouting up from nothing in 2025, but the rate of stock acceleration could face some resistance in the tech sector.
That is why it is important not to chase big gains and wait for stocks to come to you as investors book profits to close the year.
There will be moments where you wish you waited.
Remember, much of tech’s success has already been priced into the stock, and looking out, they will need to deliver another bounty of alpha for shareholders to bid up the price even more.
That is certainly what Nvidia is doing as they impress and then reestablish a new higher goal.
The rally isn’t over, but readers will need to pick their spots.
Since peaking on July 10, big tech stocks have fallen 2%. That lags every major sector in the S&P 500, with the utilities, real estate, financial, and industrial groups jumping more than 10% and the broader index gaining 3.1% over the same span.
Microsoft faces concerns about its prospects in AI. Apple has seen early signs of tepid demand for its newest iPhones, although long-term optimism helped send the stock to a record last week. Amazon investors are worried about heavy capital spending eating into profits. And Alphabet has regulatory uncertainty as the US Justice Department investigates it for monopoly practices.
In the third quarter, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms are projected to have poured $56 billion into capital expenditures, up 52% from the same period a year ago.
This is getting expensive, and investors want to know if the expenses are becoming too burdensome to the point that it doesn’t make economic sense.
Raising concerns about future profit margins was never a concern, but it suddenly is for tech investors looking down the road.
Top-line gains are starting to get offset by surging AI-related capital spending.
The reason for the optimism is fairly simple. For all the concerns, they continue to offer above-average profit growth, exposure to AI, strong capital returns, and less risk than other stock market sectors.
They are still attractive businesses with established business models, but at what price?
This earnings season will finally be the acid test to whether investors co-sign management’s vision to grow earnings in 2025.
The path is certainly much harder than in years past, and the goalpost continues to shrink.
Opportunities will present themselves as many companies might need a short-term haircut after earnings.
I still like the tech sector, but I would like it more if the expensive prices were reigned in.
For companies like Nvidia or Tesla, I don’t believe that will be possible, but the tier after that should offer optimal chances to pocket some high-quality names at better prices.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
November 22, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PICK YOUR SPOTS)
(NVDA), (TSLA), ($COMPQ)
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
OKLearn moreWe may request cookies to be set on your device. We use cookies to let us know when you visit our websites, how you interact with us, to enrich your user experience, and to customize your relationship with our website.
Click on the different category headings to find out more. You can also change some of your preferences. Note that blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience on our websites and the services we are able to offer.
These cookies are strictly necessary to provide you with services available through our website and to use some of its features.
Because these cookies are strictly necessary to deliver the website, refuseing them will have impact how our site functions. You always can block or delete cookies by changing your browser settings and force blocking all cookies on this website. But this will always prompt you to accept/refuse cookies when revisiting our site.
We fully respect if you want to refuse cookies but to avoid asking you again and again kindly allow us to store a cookie for that. You are free to opt out any time or opt in for other cookies to get a better experience. If you refuse cookies we will remove all set cookies in our domain.
We provide you with a list of stored cookies on your computer in our domain so you can check what we stored. Due to security reasons we are not able to show or modify cookies from other domains. You can check these in your browser security settings.
These cookies collect information that is used either in aggregate form to help us understand how our website is being used or how effective our marketing campaigns are, or to help us customize our website and application for you in order to enhance your experience.
If you do not want that we track your visist to our site you can disable tracking in your browser here:
We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.
Google Webfont Settings:
Google Map Settings:
Vimeo and Youtube video embeds: