Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 17, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(COMPROMISE IS THE BEST STRATEGY)
(JNJ), (AMGN), (TAK), (VRTX), (CRSP), (EDIT), (PFE), (CRBU), (SGMO), (LLY), (AXSM)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 17, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(COMPROMISE IS THE BEST STRATEGY)
(JNJ), (AMGN), (TAK), (VRTX), (CRSP), (EDIT), (PFE), (CRBU), (SGMO), (LLY), (AXSM)
An optimist looks at bubbles and visualizes champagne, while a pessimist’s mind goes to Alka-Seltzer. The same thing happens with investors.
Some believe that the steep losses suffered by stocks and bonds in 2022 are a much-needed “cleansing,” which would set the stage for renewed partnerships and collaborations along with high returns. Others simply view it as the first chapter in a protracted bear market.
Meanwhile, a handful believes that it’s a combination of both perspectives—especially for the biotechnology industry.
Roughly two years following the decline of biotechnology stocks, several executives from small and midsize organizations finally concede that their share prices might no longer be able to bounce back anytime soon. In fact, some have been fielding panicked calls from execs of fledgling biotech firms, offering to sell their companies at a discount.
The alteration in the medical device and biotechnology landscape only started a few months before the previous year ended.
This is because, before the change in perspective, when the SPDR S&P Biotech exchange-traded fund (XBI) had slid by about 40% from its 2021 peak, many leaders in the biotech sector still believed that their companies could regain momentum.
The primary concern for smaller biotech and medical devices companies, which allocate years to developing and testing products without any commercially approved treatment, is that the continuous decline in their valuations has made it practically impossible to generate new money to fund any of their projects.
Given this scenario, many small and midsize biotechs would go under soon, particularly those with no data strong enough to provide near-term growth catalysts.
This is where Big Pharma names are expected to come in. After all, these large-cap companies offer an alternative option with their non-dilutive sources of funding and ever-growing war chests.
Big companies, though, have been more cautious in cutting big checks for acquisitions. Despite the high expectations last year, we only saw a few massive deals, including Abiomed’s sale to Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) for $19 billion and Amgen’s (AMGN) $30 billion agreement with Horizon Therapeutics.
Instead, these Big Pharma companies appear to prefer partnerships and collaborations. In these deals, they give out smaller payments to biotechnology firms to work with them on specific early-stage programs.
This type of investment seems to be a safer bet for big companies because it allows them to make several deals without spending too much. They can even collaborate with competing biotechs to determine which could develop the most effective and cost-efficient solution.
Smaller biotechs benefit from this type of deal as well.
In the pre-pandemic era, the valuations of these companies quickly soared based on the potential of their pipeline candidates. Some share prices would skyrocket with just a hint of positive data. This is no longer the case these days, not only because investors have become more discerning but also more anxious over experimental programs.
So instead of getting acquired, smaller biotechs can choose to strike partnerships with large-cap companies. This is an excellent way to inject some funding into their programs and, hopefully, provide them with revenue streams, especially since Big Pharma companies know how to market new products.
It sounds challenging, but a genuinely promising program could fetch a large sum.
Perhaps the most significant indicator that not all hope is lost comes from Takeda (TAK) when it purchased an experimental treatment undergoing tests as a potential psoriasis medication.
This candidate, developed by a privately held biotechnology firm called Nimbus Therapeutics, was sold for a whopping $4 billion upfront, plus roughly $2 billion more for future milestone payments. And here’s the clincher: Takeda got the experimental drug by a razor-thin margin.
In terms of acquisitions, some larger companies have been open to that route. For instance, AstraZeneca (AZN) shelled out $1.3 billion for CiniCor Pharma, while Ipsen (IPSEY) purchased Albireo Pharma (ALBO) for $1 billion.
While the future for smaller biotechs remains uncertain, several names continue to be in conversations whenever acquisitions are discussed.
There’s Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), which has long been reported to take interest in acquiring CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Editas Medicine (EDIT), with the latter looking more attractive thanks to its cheaper price tag.
Meanwhile, Pfizer (PFE) has been shopping around for a biotech to bolster its gene-editing programs, and so far, Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) are under serious consideration.
With its continuing interest in central nervous system diseases, such as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, Eli Lilly (LLY) has been aggressive in its search for a company to acquire. Among the strongest candidates is Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM).
With this daunting reality setting in, one thing has become absolutely sure: the biotechnology sector has become a buyer’s market for big companies with cash to spare for acquisitions and collaborations.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 29, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A PROMISING START TO 2023)
(JNJ), (PFE), (MRNA), (ABMD)
Investors will be grateful to finally leave 2022 behind as the markets weathered a challenging year. For 2023, we can anticipate much of the same, at least in the first six months, which is why it’s crucial to fill your portfolio with high-quality blue-chip stocks.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fits this description.
With $469 billion in market capitalization, JNJ is the biggest drugmaker across the globe, easily surpassing its peers by over $100 billion. Its product portfolio is practically unrivaled, with the company catching up in the COVID-19 vaccine race and matching the pace of Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA). More importantly, the company has more than a dozen treatments that are on pace to go beyond $1 billion in sales this 2022.
In the third quarter of 2022, JNJ’s revenue climbed by 1.94% year-over-year to reach $23.79 billion, beating Wall Street estimates by $357.93 million. The company also started to spend more on R&D, particularly for the expansion of its medtech sector.
Recently, JNJ closed the deal to acquire Abiomed (ABMD), a leader in the manufacture of heart pump solutions, to boost its medtech segment.
This acquisition is in line with JNJ’s plan to separate its consumer products division from its pharmaceutical and medtech segments. The addition of Abiomed aligns with JNJ’s plan to integrate a smart data approach in the creation and development of new drugs. The company is also looking into leveraging new technology to bolster its medical device division.
After the split is completed, JNJ is projected to become a $60 billion biopharmaceutical entity by 2025. The primary growth drivers would be its major brands and strategic product launches. Meanwhile, the medtech segment is expected to rack up sales as well since its growth will no longer be hampered by the consumer health division, which typically faces litigations.
Specifically, Abiomed will bring its lead product, Impella, to JNJ’s pipeline, which would be an excellent addition to its cardiovascular devices portfolio. This would be a promising revenue stream for the company since the cardiovascular devices market is estimated to climb at a CAGR of 6.9%. It is projected to expand from a market size worth $54.08 billion in 2021 to $86.27 billion by 2028.
As for Impella, this smart implantable pump is anticipated to rake in more than $3.8 billion in revenue by 2031.
The split is a good business decision for JNJ. In the nine months leading to October 2022, pharmaceutical sales were noted to be at their peak at $39.4 billion. JNJ also unveiled more innovative therapeutics in this segment, including CAR-T meds and gene therapies, on top of expanded indications for well-established treatments and investigational drugs.
Some of the treatments poised for potential blockbuster status in 2023 are oncology drugs Darzalex, pulmonary hypertension medication Opsumit, immunology treatment Remicade, and cardiovascular drug Xarelto. The company also submitted multiple myeloma treatment Talquetamab for regulatory approval next year.
Apart from these, JNJ is expected to unveil at least 14 more new treatments that hold a sales potential of over $1 billion each. Meanwhile, half of the candidates are projected to rake in $5 billion or more in sales.
In comparison, the consumer health segment recorded $11.1 billion, indicating a 1.1% slide year over year.
These reports show why the news of the company's split comes as a relief for many of its investors, especially in light of how impressive its pharmaceutical business has been performing as of late. Considering that JNJ is in dire need of evolving while integrating groundbreaking technology, keeping its pharmaceutical and medtech segments tied to its consumer health division would inevitably drag sales down.
Overall, JNJ remains an excellent choice for those looking for high-quality stocks to add to their portfolio. However, it would be advisable to buy after the split. This is because the share price would most likely drop by then, offering us the chance to invest in a company geared towards the medtech and pharmaceutical space.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 22, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE STOCK THAT KEEPS ON GIVING)
(MRK), (JNJ), (PFE), (IMG), (ABBV), (AZN)
Although the broader market has been experiencing the worst year in a very long time, some businesses still manage to deliver excellent results.
One of them is Merck (MRK).
This biotechnology and healthcare giant has been defying gravity this 2022. While the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) has slid by quite a substantial margin this year, with the likes of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Pfizer (PFE) succumbing to the pressure, Merck bucked the trend. Its shares have been up by 31% since early January.
Amid the economic and financial crises, Merck remains a promising stock with a number of factors going its way. More importantly, there is a high probability that it can sustain its momentum regardless of what happens to the broader market or the economy.
Merck’s determination to keep this momentum has once again become apparent in its recent announcement.
Earlier this week, the biotech giant disclosed that it would acquire a biopharmaceutical company called Imago BioSciences (IMG) for $1.35 billion.
This would translate to $36 in cash for every share of Imago, which is about twice its recent closing price of $17.40. The deal is anticipated to be completed by March 2023.
Like its large competitors, Merck also has a portfolio of treatments that continue to aid in the growth of its top and bottom lines.
In the third quarter of this year, the biotech’s revenue climbed by 14% year-over-year to reach roughly $15 billion. Meanwhile, its adjusted net income was $4.7 billion, showing a 4% increase compared to the same period in 2021.
Among its products, Merck has been most closely associated with the cancer drug Keytruda. So far, this treatment is on track to rake in $20 billion in net sales this year alone.
In fact, it’s expected to surpass AbbVie’s (ABBV) Humira as the top-selling drug by 2026.
With Keytruda’s patent exclusivity lasting until 2028, Merck has more than sufficient time to prepare for it. Moreover, that means the company can still rely on Keytruda as a strong growth driver for at least five more years.
However, astute investors would point out Merck’s reliance on Keytruda and the risks that come with this arrangement. With the mega-blockbuster’s $5.4 billion net sales, which comprised 36.3% of Merck’s $15 billion total sales in the third quarter, this is a legitimate concern.
It should be noted that Keytruda isn’t the only promising moneymaking treatment in Merck’s portfolio.
One of its promising treatments is its collaboration with AstraZeneca (AZN), which resulted in another cancer medicine called Lynparza. Another is Merck’s HPV vaccines, which continue to rise at a good pace. Finally, the company’s vaccine portfolio has been expanding, with its pneumococcal vaccine recently gaining approval.
Most of its therapies and even its vaccine franchises are on pace to surpass at least $1 billion in net sales this 2022. Needless to say, Merck has been successful in its quest to become more than just a cancer therapy leader.
On top of these, another good reason to take Merck into consideration is its dividend yield.
Merck’s current dividend yield is at 2.8%, which outpaces the 1.6% average yield of the S&P 500. Aside from its top-selling products and robust pipeline that easily support this payout, the company’s dividend is well-covered as well.
Overall, Merck is one of the handful of companies across all industries that has been breaking the norm of poor stock performance in this highly challenging year.
The company can offer a strong shield for wary investors as we deal with the onset of yet another recession. Not only is this biotechnology and healthcare company part of a naturally defensive sector, but its outlook also remains positive amid the issues plaguing the world.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 1, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(BARGAIN DEAL FOR A QUALITY STOCK)
(ABBV), (ABT), (RGNX), (JNJ), (MRK), (GILD), (AMGN), (LLY), (BMY), (PFE)
Uncertainty. That’s the prevalent sentiment in the investment community these days.
Investors have been hesitant to buy stocks because they believe the bear market isn’t over yet.
Moreover, investors are anxious over the possibility that the stocks will keep falling as issues like higher inflation continue to hound the market.
However, it’s critical to remember that although today’s situation is challenging, it’s only temporary. This means that businesses with solid track records and promising prospects still make excellent buys.
One of the companies outperforming the market this year but which has fallen out of investors’ favor recently, is AbbVie (ABBV).
AbbVie stock has been declining in value lately following an underwhelming third-quarter earnings report. On top of that, the looming patent expiration of its top-selling drug Humira remains a significant concern among investors.
While the Humira situation is clearly not good news for the company, the reality is that AbbVie has impressively preserved the medication’s exclusivity for almost a decade longer than initially expected. Plus, the company has been boosting Humira pricing every year to cope with the declining revenues in the EU, where it already lost patent protection in 2018.
Hence, it’s acceptable for Humira’s chapter in AbbVie’s story to end. After all, the drug has given the company so much. It has been primarily responsible for the more than 325% climb in the company’s share price since 2012 when AbbVie was spun out of Abbott Laboratories (ABT).
Nonetheless, Humira’s impending patent loss doesn’t mean that AbbVie will simply abandon its roots.
The company has since developed potential successors of Humira, namely, Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
So far, the two auto-immune drugs have delivered promising results and are on track to keep the company in tip-top shape in its post-Humira era.
These newer immunology drugs are showing impressive growth potential, with Rinvoq recording a 56% increase in revenue in the third quarter of 2022 and Skyrizi revenue soaring by 85%.
Both are also on track to beat Humira’s peak sales, with joint peak sales from Skyrizi and Rinvoq initially estimated to reach roughly $15 billion.
However, recent revenue reports show that the two could surpass the estimate and completely eclipse Humira’s more than $20 billion annual return.
Obviously, AbbVie would require more than its immunology segment if it plans to sustain a good top and bottom-line growth trajectory.
Other than the more than 10 neuroscience, hematology, immunology, and oncology candidates in its pipeline, which are projected to be ready for market launches in the three to five years, AbbVie has been diving into the aesthetics and eye care markets.
Its eye care program, specifically RGX-314, which is currently being developed in partnership with Regenxbio (RGNX), is an interesting wildcard. For context, the eye care segments for wet and dry advanced macular degeneration are roughly worth over $10 billion to $20 billion annually.
With its Humira chapter closing, AbbVie could be ushering in a new era where products from its Allergan acquisition take the lead.
For example, its Botox franchise consistently delivers impressive results. Even its Botox for migraine line has been recording double-digit revenue growth in the third quarter, indicating gains in AbbVie’s neuroscience segment.
As for the aesthetic indications of Botox, this particular portfolio could be a key driver in the company’s future growth.
Aside from Botox, AbbVie also gained access to the widely used dermal filler Juvederm. With the facial aesthetics industry pegged to experience a compound annual growth rate yearly at 14%, the market is estimated to hit $15.2 billion by 2028.
This trend of AbbVie dominating the market is likely to continue as the company is confident that competitors would be unable to develop biosimilars of Botox. That means its Botox line could keep adding to its top-line growth for an extended period.
Overall, AbbVie is a solid bet among the “Big 8” in the pharmaceutical world, which includes Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck (MRK), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Amgen (AMGN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), and Pfizer (PFE).
Moreover, this is an excellent time to hunt for deals as several quality stocks continue to decline, affected negatively partly by the momentum of the broader market. Among stocks to consider, AbbVie should be at the top of your list.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
October 18, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED)
(MRNA), (MRK), (PFE)
A newly announced collaboration extension with Merck (MRK) might just be what the doctor ordered for Moderna’s stock, which has been experiencing a decline in revenue since the public started resisting boosters.
Moderna stock rose 12% following the news that the FDA approved its collaboration deal with Merck as well as its COVID booster geared towards young kids.
Those positive updates most likely mark the end of a falling knives stage for the company, as it was coming off a 52-week low just days before the announcements.
The deal between Moderna and Merck involves a personalized cancer vaccine, which the two have been working on since 2016. The goal is to use Moderna’s technology as a combo treatment alongside Merck’s mega-blockbuster Keytruda.
The cancer vaccine, currently dubbed mRNA-4157, will be tailored for every patient. It generates a reaction according to the particular mutational signature of an individual’s tumor.
The collaboration is already in its Phase 2 trial for a high-risk melanoma vaccine.
The deal involves Merck shelling out $250 million in cash to exercise its option on this personalized cancer vaccine candidate. Had Moderna not earned copious amounts of cash over its COVID-19 vaccine over the past two years, this money would have seemed like a much bigger deal.
Nevertheless, the agreement is for a 50-50 sharing of costs and, eventually, potential profits. The results of Phase 2 should be disclosed to the public before December 2022.
Regarding how this affects Moderna’s pipeline, the collaboration demonstrates the versatility of the mRNA technology.
The other update that boosted the stock is the emergency use authorization granted to Moderna and fellow COVID-19 vaccine maker Pfizer (PFE), which allowed their boosters to be used on children.
As you know, Moderna markets and sells only a single product: SpikeVax. While this COVID vaccine is, apart from Pfizer’s Comirnaty, the most extensively used worldwide, pushing revenues to $18.5 billion in 2021, and is on track to hit roughly $21 billion in 2022, sales for SpikeVax are expected to decline now that the pandemic has been deemed “over.”
The company’s agreement to 70 million vaccine doses to the US government, on top of the option to purchase up to 230 million, which will be worth about $4.8 billion at $16 per dose, may very well be Moderna’s last to a government.
Currently, the biotech is looking into the private market, in which its vaccine may start costing up to $100.
Reviewing the demand and the current situation, my best estimate is that Moderna would earn roughly $7 billion annually from the private market for its COVID vaccine.
Nevertheless, Moderna’s vaccine has shown proof of concept. This would translate to more confidence in the company’s pipeline. Its expanded collaboration with Merck is a clear indicator of this sentiment.
In terms of the rest of its pipeline, Moderna has several candidates.
The most advanced so far are its Phase 3 programs for a flu vaccine, a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine (RSV), and a cytomegalovirus vaccine (CMV).
Considering the respiratory nature and the resounding success of its mRNA COVID vaccines, it’s reasonable to believe that the Phase 3 trials for these candidates would also be successful.
Hence, Moderna could be looking at substantial revenues once these vaccines enter the market.
While it can be argued that flu vaccines already exist, sometimes being the first to market is insufficient to keep a significant market share.
The current flu market is estimated to be worth $5 billion to $6 billion, and there are definitely a lot of competitors in the sector.
However, Moderna aims to develop a more efficacious vaccine. Needless to say, that could easily command a higher price tag and attract more customers.
Meanwhile, Moderna’s RSV vaccine—if approved—would not have any rivals. This is also another massive segment, with the market for the older adult population alone already worth $10 billion.
Both RSV and flu vaccines are anticipated to be released by late 2024 or early 2025.
When people hear Moderna, they immediately think COVID stock. Then, they immediately begin to wonder about the company’s future. Basically, Moderna has become a victim of its own success.
At the moment, the market is focused on Moderna’s potential revenue loss from its COVID vaccine. That sentiment is clearly weighing on the company’s price, making it undervalued. However, these very same fears make Moderna a steal considering the company’s long-term prospects well beyond its COVID program.
Long-term investors would see this as an opportunity to buy an innovative biotech for a bargain and reap the rewards when Moderna’s other candidates start to gain momentum.
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies.
OKLearn moreWe may request cookies to be set on your device. We use cookies to let us know when you visit our websites, how you interact with us, to enrich your user experience, and to customize your relationship with our website.
Click on the different category headings to find out more. You can also change some of your preferences. Note that blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience on our websites and the services we are able to offer.
These cookies are strictly necessary to provide you with services available through our website and to use some of its features.
Because these cookies are strictly necessary to deliver the website, refuseing them will have impact how our site functions. You always can block or delete cookies by changing your browser settings and force blocking all cookies on this website. But this will always prompt you to accept/refuse cookies when revisiting our site.
We fully respect if you want to refuse cookies but to avoid asking you again and again kindly allow us to store a cookie for that. You are free to opt out any time or opt in for other cookies to get a better experience. If you refuse cookies we will remove all set cookies in our domain.
We provide you with a list of stored cookies on your computer in our domain so you can check what we stored. Due to security reasons we are not able to show or modify cookies from other domains. You can check these in your browser security settings.
These cookies collect information that is used either in aggregate form to help us understand how our website is being used or how effective our marketing campaigns are, or to help us customize our website and application for you in order to enhance your experience.
If you do not want that we track your visist to our site you can disable tracking in your browser here:
We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.
Google Webfont Settings:
Google Map Settings:
Vimeo and Youtube video embeds: