(PFE) Archives - Page 4 of 45 - Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Rise Of The Steady Eddies

Think of the market as a body fighting off an infection. Tech stocks might be the flashy antibodies, but healthcare is the steady, reliable immune system, keeping things stable when the going gets tough. And right now, that immune system is looking stronger than ever.

Skeptical? I get it. We've heard the hype about healthcare before. But this time, it's different.

The Healthcare Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) has been on a tear, up 9.3% this year as of Thursday's close. That's nearly keeping pace with the broader S&P 500's 12% gain - a remarkable feat in a market that's been anything but stable.

But what's even more impressive is the turnaround. Back in mid-July, XLV was lagging behind like a three-legged horse in the Kentucky Derby, up only 8.3% while the S&P 500 was showing off with an 18% gain.

In fact, out of the 63 healthcare stocks in the S&P 500, only a dozen have been slacking off since July. The rest? They've been outperforming like it's going out of style.

So what changed?

Well, it wasn't so much that healthcare stocks suddenly discovered the fountain of youth. No, my friends, it was more like the rest of the market decided to take a swan dive off the high board.

You see, while tech stocks were busy doing their best Icarus impression – flying too close to the sun and then plummeting back to earth – healthcare stocks were steady as she goes. It's like the old tortoise and hare story, except in this version, the hare got distracted by shiny objects and ran off a cliff.

Now, let's shine the spotlight on some of the key players driving this healthcare rally.

Remember those health insurers everyone was worried about back in spring? The ones that had investors biting their nails over the future of Medicare Advantage? Well, they've made a comeback.

The S&P 500 Managed Health Care index was down 12% in mid-April, looking about as healthy as a chain smoker with a Big Mac habit. But now? It's up 4.5% since the start of the year.

Companies like Centene (CNC) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) have bounced back faster than a rubber band on steroids.

And it's not just the insurers. Big Pharma's been flexing, too.

Pfizer (PFE), the company that became a household name faster than you can say "vaccine," is holding steady. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is up 2.2%, probably thanks to all that baby powder they're not selling anymore.

Meanwhile, AbbVie’s (ABBV) up 11% since July. These guys are like the Energizer Bunny of the pharma world – they just keep going and going.

But the real showstopper? Eli Lilly (LLY). This biopharma has been on a tear since the beginning of 2024. Up 45% on the year at one point, they've been climbing faster than a squirrel up a tree with a dog in hot pursuit.

Then, there are companies like Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO), up 20% since July. Universal Health Services (UHS)? Up 18% since July. Waters (WAT), the life sciences tools folks? Up 15%.

Even the biotechs are out to impress.

Amgen (AMGN), the granddaddy of biotech, is up 10% year-to-date. They're selling drugs like Prolia and Enbrel faster than hotcakes at a lumberjack convention.

And Amgen’s pipeline? It’s packed with potential blockbusters, setting the stage for further expansion in the future.

Gilead Sciences (GILD)? Up 15% year-to-date. Turns out, their COVID-19 treatment, Remdesivir, is back in vogue like bell-bottom jeans. And their HIV and hepatitis C drugs? They're still growing stronger.

But the real rock star of biotech? That'd be Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN). These guys are up over 30% year-to-date. They're treating everything from eye diseases to cancer to inflammation.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) is another one to watch. Up 12% this year, they've got the cystic fibrosis market cornered. And they're not stopping there – they're expanding faster thanks to their collaboration with the likes of Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP).

Now that I’ve mentioned gene therapy, I know you're wondering about Moderna (MRNA). After all, weren’t they the darlings of the COVID era? Well, yes and no.

Their stock's down about 35% year-to-date, but don't count them out just yet. Their mRNA technology is hotter than a jalapeño popper fresh out of the fryer. They might be down, but they're definitely not out.

So, what's the takeaway here? I suggest you keep your eyes peeled on the biotechnology and healthcare sectors. After all, in this market, the best offense might just be a good defense – and what's more defensive than betting on the sector that keeps us all alive and kicking?

August 6, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 6, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED)

(PFE)

A Playbook For A Biotech Triple Crown

Biotech Letter

AbbVie (ABBV): A biotech stock that's been on my radar longer than most. If I could travel back to my UCLA biochem days, I'd tell young John to ditch the petri dishes and buy shares in this pharma giant. Why?

Because AbbVie isn't just another pharma play – it's a masterclass in diversification, innovation, and market-beating performance.

This is the stock that could turn a bright-eyed student into a savvy investor faster than you can say "immunology franchise."

In fact, if you've been paying attention to the market, you might have noticed that AbbVie's stock has been outperforming the broader U.S. market since mid-April, and for good reason.

This is a company that's been running at full throttle, posting some seriously impressive numbers in Q2 2024. We're talking $14.46 billion in revenue, a whopping 17.5% increase from the previous quarter and beating consensus estimates by a cool $430 million.

Earnings per share may have fallen just short of analysts' expectations, but they still climbed by a respectable 34 cents to $2.65.

But here's the thing: AbbVie's success isn't just a flash in the pan. This is a company with a diversified portfolio that's driving growth across multiple fronts.

I'm talking about their immunology, oncology, and neuroscience franchises, which together account for a staggering 75% of the company's total revenue.

Let's start with immunology. Now, I know what you're thinking - isn't that just Humira, AbbVie's blockbuster drug for Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis? Well, yes and no.

While Humira has been facing some generic competition from the likes of Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA), Pfizer (PFE), and Amgen (AMGN), resulting in a 30% year-over-year decline in global sales, AbbVie's got a couple of other tricks up its sleeve.

Enter Skyrizi and Rinvoq, two immunology drugs that are picking up the slack in a big way. Sales of these bad boys climbed 45% and 56%, respectively, in Q2 2024.

Skyrizi, in particular, has been an absolute beast, raking in $2.73 billion and growing 44.8% year-over-year. And with the FDA giving it the green light for moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis in June 2024, the sky's the limit for this game-changer.

But AbbVie's not content to rest on its laurels. They're pushing the envelope with Rinvoq, a JAK inhibitor that's been approved for a wide range of indications and is showing some serious promise.

In Q2 2024, Rinvoq brought in $1.43 billion, a 30.8% quarter-over-quarter increase, thanks to strong demand in the U.S., excellent clinical trial results, and FDA approval for treating children with psoriatic arthritis and juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

And let's not forget about giant cell arteritis, a condition that AbbVie's been targeting with Rinvoq.

Recent trials have shown some impressive results, with 46% of adult patients taking Rinvoq 15 mg experiencing sustained remission, compared to just 29% of those on placebo.

No wonder AbbVie's been submitting applications left and right to get this drug approved for even more indications.

But it's not just immunology where AbbVie's making waves. Their oncology portfolio, bolstered by the acquisition of ImmunoGen in mid-February 2024, is also delivering the goods.

Sure, demand for Imbruvica may be declining due to newer BTK inhibitors from AstraZeneca (AZN), BeiGene (BGNE), and Eli Lilly (LLY), but Elahere, an antibody-drug conjugate for ovarian cancer, is quickly becoming a rising star.

In Q2 2024, Elahere sales jumped 65.4% quarter-over-quarter to $128 million, driven by increased marketing, growing awareness among physicians, and promising data from clinical trials.

Finally, let's not overlook AbbVie's neuroscience franchise, which generated a cool $2.16 billion in Q2 2024, a 14.7% year-over-year increase.

Headlining this portfolio are Qulipta and Ubrelvy for migraine treatment, and Vraylar for a range of psychiatric conditions.

Qulipta, specifically, has been a standout, with sales surging 56.3% year-over-year to $150 million, thanks to its convenient oral administration and long-term efficacy data.

Looking ahead, AbbVie's got even more irons in the fire. Their $8.7 billion acquisition of Cerevel Therapeutics (CERE) is set to close soon, bringing promising neuroscience candidates like emraclidine for schizophrenia and davapidon for Parkinson's into the fold.

With all these positive developments, it's no wonder AbbVie's feeling confident enough to raise its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $10.71-$10.91, up from the previous range of $10.61-$10.81. Talk about a biochemistry experiment gone right!

So, there you have it. AbbVie: a healthcare powerhouse that's firing on all cylinders and poised for even greater success in the years to come. If only I could've shown this to my younger self back in those UCLA labs – he might've traded his test tubes for trading terminals a lot sooner.

Now, if you're ready to take a ride on this rocket ship, I suggest you buckle up and hang on tight. Because let me tell you, dissecting AbbVie's financial DNA has been more thrilling than any fracking adventure or hedge fund rodeo I've ever been on.

And if there's one thing I've learned in my years hopscotching from biochem labs to Wall Street, it's that the view from the top of a well-diversified, innovative pharma giant is always worth the climb. I suggest you buy the dip.

July 18, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 18, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(FROM GOLDEN EGG TO DUD, AND BACK AGAIN?)

(PFE), (LLY), (NVO), (VKTX), (GILD), (GPCR), (BNTX)

From Golden Egg To Dud, And Back Again?

Biotech Letter

Remember when Pfizer (PFE) was strutting around Wall Street like a rooster in a henhouse, clucking about their $10 billion-a-year weight-loss wonder drug?

Well, that golden egg turned out to be a dud, with safety issues and side effects sending their experimental pills to the scrap heap faster than you can say "clinical trial failure."

Just when we thought Pfizer had thrown in the towel, they're back in the ring, swinging with a new once-daily version of danuglipron and pushing it towards bigger studies.

But let me tell you, the market's about as excited as I am for a vegan BBQ. Pfizer's shares nudged up a measly 0.4% upon announcement, after a brief 2.9% spike that fizzled faster than a diet soda.

Now, let's talk about the 800-pound gorillas in the room: Eli Lilly's (LLY) Zepbound and Novo Nordisk's (NVO) Wegovy.

These weekly jabs are the current darlings of the weight-loss world, but everyone and their grandmother are scrambling to get an oral GLP-1 to market. It's like watching a gold rush, except instead of pickaxes, they're wielding pipettes.

Lilly's got orfoglipron in Phase 3, with data coming faster than a day trader's heartbeat. Novo's already peddling Rybelsus, though it's about as effective as a chocolate teapot compared to the injectables.

And don't forget the up-and-comers: Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Gilead Sciences (GILD), and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) are all elbowing for a spot at the table.

Now, I know Pfizer's trying to convince us that their once-daily danuglipron is the bee's knees, with "encouraging pharmacokinetic data." But they're as tight-lipped about side effects as a politician at a press conference.

The research world’s not completely buying it, and frankly, neither am I. We might be waiting until the cows come home - or at least until 2026 - before we see if this pill's worth its weight in gold.

Meanwhile, Pfizer's stock has been sagging like a bulldog's jowls, down 1.5% this year and a gut-wrenching 21% over the past 12 months.

They're also staring down the barrel of a $17 billion revenue nosedive by 2030 as their patents fly the coop faster than pigeons at feeding time.

So, what has Pfizer been doing to deal with these? In recent months, the company has been on an acquisition bender that'd make a Vegas high-roller blush.

They snagged cancer specialist Seagen for a cool $43 billion, aiming to have eight blockbuster cancer drugs by 2030.

They're also playing footsie with BioNTech (BNTX) again, cooking up mRNA goodies like a COVID/flu combo vaccine. And let's not forget their partnership with Flagship Pioneering in the weight loss arena.

Over the past five years, Pfizer hasn’t been shy about spending money, securing over 20 new medicine approvals.

But Wall Street's been about as impressed as a cat with a new toy - they sniff at it and walk away. The stock took a 40% nosedive in 2023, partly thanks to their obesity program face-planting.

Still, Pfizer is not giving up so easily. In fact, they’ve worked to give their lineup a facelift. New approvals are rolling in faster than a greased pig at a county fair, and their pipeline's deeper than a philosopher on a bender.

Now, here's the million-dollar question: Is Pfizer a diamond in the rough or fool's gold? The market overreacted to their COVID-19 vaccine success, and now they might be overcorrecting in the other direction.

For those of you with nerves of steel and the patience of a Zen master, Pfizer could be a steal at these prices. If you don’t have the stomach for it, then I suggest you look elsewhere.

July 2, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 2, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TWO-STEPPING TO A CANCER CURE)

(GILD), (AZN), (RHHBY), (PFE), (MRK)

Two-Stepping To A Cancer Cure

Biotech Letter

I was at a biotech conference in San Francisco, nursing a cup of black coffee and trying not to fall asleep during yet another startup pitch.

Suddenly, I overhear a conversation that makes me perk up faster than if someone had mentioned a 50% off sale on vintage aircraft parts.

"Did you hear about TwoStep Therapeutics?" someone whispered. "They've got Bertozzi, Cochran, and Levy on board."

Now, I've been following the biotech scene longer than I've been flying planes, and those names made my ears perk up faster than an air traffic controller during a thunderstorm. I nearly choked on my coffee trying to catch every word.

As it turns out, TwoStep Therapeutics isn't just another flash-in-the-pan biotech startup. These folks are diving headfirst into the shark-infested waters of immunotherapy and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs).

And let me tell you, they're not packing pool noodles – they're armed to the teeth with intellectual firepower.

Now, I've seen more biotech startups than there are hedge funds in Connecticut, but this one's got my attention. Why? They're not here to do the same old cancer-fighting waltz.

Instead, they're attempting to solve a Rubik's Cube of cancer treatment – and they might just have the brainpower to do it.

Let's talk about that brainpower for a moment. TwoStep's advisory board reads like a "Who's Who" of biotech brilliance.

We're talking Nobel laureate Carolyn Bertozzi, Stanford's Jennifer Cochran, and Ronald Levy – the wizard behind rituximab. It's as if they raided the faculty lounge at Stanford and offered stock options instead of tenure.

That means TwoStep's not just another me-too biotech. They're cooking up a platform of peptide conjugates that can bind to five different tumor-associated integrins.

In layman's terms? They're building a cancer-fighting multi-tool that makes current treatments look like plastic sporks.

CEO Caitlyn Miller isn't just another lab coat with a PowerPoint presentation either. She's got skin in the game – or rather, genes.

Her stepfather battled oral cancer for 14 years before passing away. I don’t need to tell you, but that's the kind of motivation you just can't buy.

Now, before you start salivating over potential returns faster than Pavlov's dogs at dinnertime, remember: This is early-stage biotech.

We're talking more risk than a game of Russian roulette with five bullets. But for those of you with iron stomachs and a penchant for moonshots, TwoStep might be worth a spot on your watchlist.

Their $6.5 million seed round is chump change in biotech land, but it's not about the size of the boat, it's the motion of the ocean. And with backers like NFX and Alexandria Venture Investments, they've got some serious propulsion.

TwoStep isn't going after the low-hanging fruit either. They're not interested in well-trodden paths like bladder or breast cancer.

No sir, they're setting their sights on tough customers like head and neck and colon cancer. It's a gutsy move, but in biotech, sometimes you've got to swing for the fences.

It's worth noting, though, that TwoStep isn't alone in this high-stakes game.

Big pharma's been falling over themselves to get a piece of this action. Gilead Sciences (GILD) shelled out big bucks for Immunomedics to get their hands on Trodelvy.

AstraZeneca (AZN) has been playing in this sandbox for a while with Enhertu. Even the Swiss giant Roche (RHHBY) is in on the game, not to mention Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK).

So, there you have it. TwoStep Therapeutics: the new enfant terrible of the biotech world, armed with more brainpower than a MENSA convention and ambitions that could make Elon Musk blush.

Will they revolutionize cancer treatment or become another cautionary tale in biotech textbooks?

The jury's still out, but one thing's for sure – watching this unfold will be more entertaining than a CNBC stock ticker on stimulus check day.

June 25, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 25, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MORE THAN MEETS THE (WALL STREET) EYE)

(MRK), (PFE)

June 11, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 11, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE CAPITAL CURE)

(ABBV), (MRK), (PFE), (RHHBY), (JNJ), (AZN), (GSK), (MRNA), (BNTX), (CRSP), (NTLA), (BEAM), (TPTX), (ZNTL), (MRTX), (BPMC), (MGNX), (TYRA), (SPRT), (VRTX), (FOLD), (RARE), (CRBU)

The Capital Cure

Biotech Letter

Imagine you're the CEO of a major pharmaceutical company. You've got blockbuster drugs that are raking in billions, a cushy corner office, and a corporate jet at your disposal. Life is good.

But then, you look at the calendar and realize that your patents are about to expire. Suddenly, that jet feels more like a crop duster, and your corner office starts to feel like a broom closet.

That's the reality facing Big Pharma right now. These pharma big shots are sweating bullets over losing their golden geese like AbbVie's (ABBV) Humira and Merck's (MRK) Keytruda.

That’s roughly $300 billion in products about to get kicked to the curb.

But these guys didn't get to the top by sitting on their hands. They've got a war chest of $1 trillion, and they're not afraid to use it.

Major pharmaceutical giants like Pfizer (PFE), Roche (RHHBY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), AstraZeneca (AZN), and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) are about to go on the mother of all shopping sprees.

Why the rush? Because they're staring down the barrel of a patent cliff that's going to make the Grand Canyon look like a pothole.

We're talking $198 billion worth of branded drugs going off the patent cliff between 2021 and 2025. That's a gut-wrenching 56% jump from the last five years.

But don't think for a second that they're just going to sit back and watch their profits go up in smoke. No sir, they're on the hunt for the next big thing, and they've got their sights set on some juicy targets – and biotech is at the top of their list.

Leading the biotech charge are mRNA pioneers Moderna (MRNA) and BioNTech (BNTX), each sitting on a gold mine of potential blockbusters taking on everything from flu to cancer vaccines.

Underdogs like CRISPR (CRSP) biotech stars Intellia (NTLA) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) are also squarely in Big Pharma's acquisition crosshairs for their cutting-edge work in genetic disease treatments.

But beyond the headliners, don't overlook the sleeper hits that could catalyze the next big boom.

Oncology, in particular, is a prime hunting ground, accounting for 37% of pharma M&A deal value in 2023 as the $392 billion global cancer drug market continues to boom.

Companies like Turning Point Therapeutics (TPTX) and Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (ZNTL), with their promising targeted therapies for various solid tumors, are particularly attractive prospects.

Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX), focused on KRAS inhibitors, and Blueprint Medicines (BPMC), specializing in precision therapies, have also caught the eye of big pharma with their innovative approaches.

Additionally, companies with late-stage assets like MacroGenics (MGNX), Mereo BioPharma (MREO), and Tyra Biosciences (TYRA) could offer promising near-term revenue opportunities for acquiring companies looking to bolster their oncology portfolios.

Close behind are rare disease treatments, snagging 16% of new drug approvals and 9 of the top 100 deals last year in this $262 billion market ripe for more growth.

This lucrative sector has captivated pharma giants, who see potential in companies like Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), leaders in rare disease therapies with strong financial performance and consistent growth.

Aside from these, smaller biotechs like Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE), focused on developing innovative therapies for a range of rare diseases, are attracting attention for their potential to address unmet medical needs and deliver substantial returns on investment.

But the real wild card everyone wants a piece of is cell and gene therapies. This medical Wild West is projected to explode to $66.8 billion by 2030, with the FDA already greenlighting 6 cutting-edge therapies like next-gen CAR-T treatments from Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) in 2023 alone.

Notably, the buying frenzy is very much already underway. In fact, 2023 saw the biggest biotech M&A spree in a decade, with a staggering $122.2 billion changing hands as the FDA approved 50% more new therapies.

Pharma mega-mergers also hit $135.5 billion as firms raced to reload pipelines.

Interestingly, these deals are only the tip of the iceberg. As Wall Street predicts, with record-smashing deals, sky-high demand, and new approvals surging, "biotech's got plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic."

Especially if interest rates finally cooperate, throwing gasoline on the M&A bonfire and making biotech the belle of the ball as soon as late 2024.

So keep your eyes peeled and your powder dry. I suggest you add these innovative biotech names to your watchlist, and you might just discover the next blockbuster drug or breakthrough therapy that could reshape medicine – and deliver explosive returns in the process.

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