(PLTR) Archives

February 12 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Below, please find subscribers’ Q&A for the February 12 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Incline Village, NV.

Q: Can Nvidia (NVDA) go to $200 in the next three years?

A: I would imagine probably, yes. They still have a fabulous business—enormous orders and record profits. But it's not going to happen in the next six months. You need to get us out of the current stock market malaise before anything moves dramatically one way or the other, except for META, which is at an all-time high. Their basic business is still great, and the threat posed by DeepSeek is wildly overblown.

Q: Why is McDonald's (MCD) seeing declining sales?

A: Partly, it's because they have been cutting prices. So, of course, that automatically feeds into declining sales. Also, I think the weight loss drugs Mounjaro or Ozempic are having an impact. People just don't go in and eat three Big Macs for lunch anymore. They may not need any Big Macs at all. And forget about the fries and the super-size high fructose corn syrup drink. When these drugs first came out, it was speculated that fast food companies would be the number one victim of these drugs, and that is turning out to be true. Some 15.5 million people in the United States suddenly aren't hungry anymore; they just take one bite of a meal and then push their food around the plate with their fork. That’s better than taking amphetamines, which people like Judy Garland used to take to lose weight. I think that will affect not only McDonald's, but all fast-food companies which I avoid like the plague anyway because my doctor says I shouldn't eat that food.

Q: Should I buy First Solar (FSLR) based on the revised higher sales outlook?

A: I don't want to touch alternative energy anything right now. I think the government will eliminate all subsidies for all alternative energy—be it solar, windmills, hydrogen, nuclear, whatever—and turn us back into an all-oil and coal economy. That is the announced goal of the new administration. So that eliminates the subsidies for sure. It certainly will be a blow to the earnings of all solar-type companies. If you are going to do an energy form, I would do nuclear, which benefits from deregulation, if that ever happens.

Q: Do price caps fix supply problems? Because Europe is thinking about capping energy prices in the short term.

A: Price caps never work, nor does any other attempt to artificially control prices, because all it does is dry up supply. If you cap the prices, and therefore the profits that energy companies can make, they'll quit. They'll abandon the energy business, or they'll pare it down, or they won't expand. One way or the other, you reduce the return on capital. Capital is like water; it will go where it gets the highest return, and price caps certainly are not part of that formula. But what do I know? I only drilled for natural gas for six years.

Q: What's your top AI choice?

A: Well, I would say it's Nvidia (NVDA) still, and the big AI users which include Meta (META), Google (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN). Nothing has changed here.

Q: Is there any chance that Ford Motors (F) will be bought out anytime soon or never?

A: My view of all of the legacy car companies, including Stellantis, which is the old Chrysler, Ford (F), and General Motors (GM), is that they are basically giant mountains of scrap metal and only have a scrap metal value, which is about 5 cents on the dollar. That's what they fell to in the 2008 financial crisis, and all of them except for Ford went bankrupt. So I am not a big fan of the legacy auto industry now. And now, they have a trade war. They happen to be one of the biggest victims of trade wars because to stay competitive with Tesla, they moved a lot of their production to Canada and Mexico, and now those plans are going up in flames. So it seems like they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't. I'm happy driving my Tesla, but I'm wondering if my next car is a BYD. Prices are so low, it might even be worth paying 100% duty just to get a cheaper car that has better self-driving capability. But the future is unknown, to say the least.

Q: Is the next big rotation out of Silicon Valley and into Chinese tech stocks?

A: Over the long term, that may happen, but with the current administration and China (the number one target in restraint of trade and trade wars), I don't want to touch anything Chinese. There are too many better things to do in the U.S. Imagine you buy a Chinese stock, and then the administration announces a total cutoff of trade with China the next day. Not good. Chinese stocks are incredibly cheap. Most of the big ones are now single-digit multiples compared to multiples in the 20s, 30s, and 40s for our stocks. But they come with a very high political risk, and that has been true for several years now. There are better fish to fry than in China. I'd rather buy Europe than China right now if you really do want to go international. But I have no idea why they're going up unless they're discounting an end to the Ukraine War.

Q: Are junk bonds (JNK) and (HYG) a good play?

A: I would say yes. Their default risk has always been over-exaggerated thanks to their unfortunate name. They're yielding 6.54% and change, but it's a very slow mover. If we do get any improvement, any economy without inflation junk will go to $100. It's currently around $96. And you know, yield is a nice thing to have these days since the capital gain side seems to have dried up and turned into dust on almost any asset class.

Q: How can I decide when to sell the stocks that we bought on your recommendations?

A: Well, our trade alerts always have a buy recommendation and a sell recommendation or an expiration date. If you bought the stocks and kept it, just read Global Trading Dispatch for an updated market view. Watch our Mad Hedge Market Timing Index. When we get up into the 70s and 80s, that is definitely sell territory. It's hard for individuals to have an economic view going out to the rest of the year, but even the people who are economists have no idea what's going to happen right now. As I said, uncertainty is at an 8-year high, and that is being reflected in the market. So nothing beats cash, especially when you can earn 4.2% on 90-day US treasury bills. No one ever got fired for taking a profit.

Q: Can Intel (INTC) make a comeback this year?

A: No. I'm sorry, but they won’t. They had a horrible manager. They dumped him after a couple of disastrous years. I knew he was a horrible manager. I fought off all the pressure to buy Intel. So far, that's working. I mean, the stock has been terrible, so it is very cheap, but there is no guarantee that they will ever recover and, in fact, may get taken over by somebody else. So—too many better things to do. I'd rather be buying more Nvidia right now at these prices than sticking my neck out and praying for a miracle at Intel.

Q: A couple of years ago, I bought a bunch of Palantir (PLTR) on your recommendation for the next 10 bagger. I now have a 10 bagger. What should I do?

A: You know, we did recommend Palantir about 10 years ago, and it did nothing for the longest time. And then last year, it just took off like a rocket—I think it's up 400% last year. Price-earnings multiples are insanely high now. So what I would do is sell half your position. That way, the remaining half is all profit. You're playing with the house's money, and you're reducing your risk in a high-risk environment. Sell half, keep the other half. If it looks like it's starting to roll over and die, then you sell your remaining half.

Q: What's your favorite currency this year, and what should we do about it?

A: My favorite currency is the US dollar. If we're not going to get any interest rate cuts this year, the dollar will remain the highest-yielding currency in the world, and then everybody wants to buy it. It's really that simple. It’s all about interest rate differentials. Everybody else in the world has low interest rates, so stick with the dollar and don't touch the foreign currencies yet.

Q: Inflation expectations have exploded higher in view of today's number. Do you expect it to get worse?

A: If the trade war continues, it will absolutely get worse. 25% price increases are inflationary—period. End of story. A price increase is the definition of inflation, and right now, we are increasing the number of countries subject to high punitive tariffs, not decreasing them. You can expect markets to worry about that. And even if they put a temporary hold on these, people are raising prices now. They are not waiting for the actual tariff to hit; they are front-running that right now. So if you don't believe me, go to the grocery store where prices are through the roof. I actually went to a grocery store the other day, and I couldn't believe what things cost.

Q: I'd like to hedge my Nvidia (NVDA) position with a covered call. Which one should I do?

A: Well, it's not actually a hedge. What a covered call does is reduce your cost price and increase income. Right now, we have NVDA at $135. If you shorted something like the February $145 calls, you might get a dollar for that. That reduces your average price by a dollar. If you shorted the March $145 calls, that'll bring in probably $5, reduce your costs by $5, or bring in an extra $5 in income. And if you keep doing this every month and Nvidia stays stuck in a range, you can end up taking $10, $20, or even $30 in premium income over the next six months. And I have a feeling that will be the winning strategy for the first half of this year, using rallies to sell covered calls. You really could get your average cost down quite a lot; that way, if we have a massive sell-off, a lot of that loss will already be covered. If we get a massive rally, your stock just gets called away, and you buy it back on the next dip. The only negative here is the tax consequences of taking capital gains on the call-aways.

Q: You mentioned that the US has a demographic problem coming up; how will that affect the market in the short term?

A: It doesn't affect the market in the short term. Demographics are a long-term game. You have to think in terms of a generation being the round lot, which is about 20 years. Suffice it to say, when demographics go against you, like they did in Japan for 30 years, markets are horrible. Demographics are going against China now, and you're getting horrible markets. Demographics are good now in the US because we have millennials just entering their peak spending years, and that's when economies boom, and that should continue up to 2030. That is how to play demographics, and we keep updated here, although the government has suddenly ceased making available all demographic data to the public—I don't know why, but it's going to make the science of demographics much more difficult to follow without the government data. I don't know why they did that. I don't know what they hope to gain by clouding the demographic picture. Maybe it has to do with the allocation of congressional seats to the states or something like that.

Q: Do you have information on how to place a LEAPS order?

A: Just go to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to the search box, put in LEAPS in all caps, and you will find an encyclopedia of information on how to do LEAPS or Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities.

To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, TECHNOLOGY LETTER, or JACQUIE'S POST, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.

Good Luck and Good Trading,

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 22, 2024

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 22, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 22, 2025 ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(NOVEMBER 20 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(NVDA), (TSLA), (TLT), (OXY), (SLB), (MSTR), (USO), (PLTR), (SMCI), (KRE), (SMR), (UUP)

November 20 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A

Diary, Newsletter

Below, please find subscribers’ Q&A for the November 20 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Lake Tahoe, Nevada.

Q: What are your stock recommendations for the end of the first quarter of 2025?

A: I say run with the winners. Dance with the girl who brought you to the dance. I think portfolio managers are going to be under tremendous pressure to buy winners and sell losers. And, of course, you all know the winners—they’re the stocks I have been recommending all year, like Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and so on. And they're going to sell losers like energy to create the tax losses to offset their gains in the technology area. That could continue well into next year. Although, we’ve probably never entered a new administration with more uncertainty at any time in history, except maybe during the Civil War. I don’t think it will get as bad as that, but it could be bad.

Q: Is Putin bluffing about nuclear war?

A: Yes. First of all, Russia has 7,000 nuclear weapons, but only maybe 200 of those work. If he does use nuclear weapons, Ukraine will use its nuclear weapons in retaliation. During the Soviet Union, where did the Soviet Union make all their nuclear weapons? In Ukraine. That's where they had the scientists. They certainly have the Uranium—that's the hard part. You could literally put one together in days if you had the right expertise around. This will never go nuclear, and Putin has always been all about bluffing. There's a reason why the world's greatest chess masters are all Russian; it's all about the art of bluffing. So that doesn't worry me at all.

Q: Will Russia sacrifice a higher and higher percentage of its population in the war?

A: Yes, that is the military strategy: keep throwing bodies at your enemy until they run out of bullets.

Q: What is your prediction for 30-year US Treasury yields (TLT)?

A: They go higher. Higher for longer certainly includes the 30-year. The 30-year will be the most sensitive to long-term views of interest rates. If you get a return of inflation, which many people are predicting, the 30-year gets absolutely slaughtered. Adding a potential $10 trillion to the national debt, taking it to $45 trillion, is terrible for debt instruments everywhere.

Q: Should we be exiting the LEAPS that you put out on Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Schlumberger (SLB)?

A: For Occidental, I would say maybe; it’s already at a low. The outlook for oil prices is poor, with massive new production coming on stream. Regarding Schlumberger, they make their money on the volume of oil production—that probably is going to be a big winner.

Q: What do you think interest rates will do as we go into the end of Powell's term in 18 months?

I have no idea. It just depends on how fast inflation returns. My guess is that we'll get an out-of-the-blue sharp uptick in inflation in the next couple of months, and when that happens, stocks will get slaughtered. People assume that inflation just keeps going up forever after that.

Q: Crude oil (USO) has been choppy at around $70 a barrel. Where do you see it going next year?

A: My immediate target is $60, and possibly lower than that. It just depends on how fast deregulation brings on new oil supplies, especially from the federal lands that have been promised to be opened up. As it turns out, the federal government owns most of the western United States—all the national forests and so on. If you open that up to drilling, it could bring huge supplies onto the market. That would be deflationary. It would be death for oil companies, but it would be a death for OPEC as well. Every cloud has a silver lining. OPEC has been a thorn in my side for the last 60 years.

Q: I'm tempted to buy stocks that are flying up, like Palantir (PLTR) and MicroStrategy (MSTR). What would be an experienced investor trade in these situations?

A: Don't touch them with a 10-foot pole. You buy stocks before they fly up, not afterwards. By the way, if anyone knows of an attorney who is an expert at recovering stolen Crypto, please contact me. I have several clients who've had their crypto accounts cleaned out. Oh, and by the way, the heads of every major crypto exchange have been put in jail in the last three years. Imagine if the heads of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Fidelity, and Vanguard were all put in jail for fraud and theft? How many stocks would you want to buy after that? Not a lot.

Q: Your recommendations for AI and chips?

A: I think you get a slowdown. In order to buy the new plays in banks, brokers, and money managers, you need to sell the old plays. Those are going to be technology stocks and AI stocks—AI itself will keep winning. They will keep advancing, but the stocks have become extremely expensive. And everyone is waiting to see how anti-technology the new administration will be. Some of the early appointments have been extremely anti-technology, promising to rein in big tech companies. If you rein in big tech companies, you rein in their stock prices, too. I am being very cautious here. The next spike up in Nvidia (NVDA) might be the one you want to sell.

Q: Do you think the uranium play will continue under the new administration?

A: Absolutely, yes. Restrain the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and costs for the new nuclear starts up like (SMR) go way down.

Q: What do you think of NuScale Power Corp (SMR)?

A: I love it. Again, deregulation is the name of the game—and if you lose a city by accident, tough luck. Let's just hope it happens somewhere else. It's only happened three times before… Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima.

Q: Super Micro Computer (SMCI), what do you think?

A: Don't touch it. There's never just one cockroach. Hiring a new auditor to find out how much money they misrepresented is not a great buy argument to buy the stock. I'm sorry. Very high risk if you get involved.

Q: If Nvidia (NVDA) announces great earnings but sells off anyway, what should I do?

A: Get rid of it and get rid of all your other technology stocks because this is the bellwether for all technology. Tech always comes back over the long term, but short term, they may continue going nowhere as they have done for the last six months, which correctly anticipated a Trump win. Trump is not a technology guy— he hates California. Any California-based company can't expect any favors except for Tesla.

Q: Is there any reason why you prefer in-the-money bull call spreads?

A: Well, there are lots of reasons. Number 1, it's a short volatility play. Number 2 it's a time decay play, which is why I only do front months because that's when the time decay is accelerated. Thirdly, it allows you to increase your exposure to the stock by tenfold, which brings in a much bigger profit when you're right. If you look at our trade alerts, we make 15% to 20% on every trade, and 200 trades a year adds up to a lot of money. You can see that with our 75% return for this year. And it's a great risk management tool; the day-to-day volatility of call spreads is low because you're long one call option short the other. So, the usual day-to-day implied volatility on the combination is only about 8% or 9%. The biggest problem with retail investors is the volatility scares them out of the market at market lows and scares them back in at market highs. So, call spread reduces the volatility and keeps people from doing that. The risk-reward is overwhelmingly in your favor if you have somebody like me with an 80% or 90% success rate making the calls on the stocks. And, of course, having done this for almost 60 years, nothing new ever happens in the stock market—you're just getting repetitions of old stuff. All I have to do is figure out is this the 1970s story, the 1980s story, the 1990s, the 2000s, 2010s story? I have to figure out which pattern is being repeated. People who have been in the market for one year, or even 10 years, don't have that luxury.

Q: I’m having trouble getting filled on your orders.

A: You put out a spread of orders. So if I put in an order to buy at $9.00, split your order up into five pieces: at $9.00, $9.10, $9.20, $9.30, $9.40; and one or all of those orders will get filled. Another hint is that algorithms often take my trade alerts to the maximum price. Don't pay more than that price immediately, but they have to be out by the end of the day, so if you just enter good-till-cancel orders, you have an excellent chance of getting filled by the end of the day or at the opening tomorrow.

Q: Should I purchase SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)?

A: I'd say yes. That probably is a good buy with deregulation, making all of these small banks takeover targets.

Q: What should we be looking for in the fear and greed index?

A: When we get to the high end, like in the 70s, start taking profits. When we get to the low end, like the 20s, start buying and adding LEAPS and more long-term leverage option plays.

Q: What are we looking for to go short?

A: Much higher highs and a bunch of other monetary and technical indicators flashing warning signals, which are too many to go into here. Suffice to say, we did make good money on the short side this year, a couple of times on Tesla (TSLA), including a pre-election short that we covered in Tesla, and we were short a whole bunch of technology stocks going into the July meltdown. So, you know, we do both the long side and the short side, but it's been a long play—11 months this year and a short play for a month.

Q: Is the euro going back up eventually, or does the dollar (UUP) rule?

A: Sorry, but as long as the US dollar has the highest interest rates in the developing world and the prospect of even higher rates in the future, it's going to be a dollar game for the next couple of years.

Q: Will a ceasefire in the Middle East affect the markets?

A: No. The U.S. interest in geopolitical data ends at the shores—all three of them. So if the war of the last couple of years doesn't change the market—and it's been an absolutely horrific war with enormous civilian casualties—why should the end of it affect markets?

Q: What stock market returns do you see for the next four years?

A: About half of what they were for the last four years, which will be about 90% by the time Biden leaves office. You're going to have much higher interest rates and much higher inflation, and while the new administration is very friendly for some industries, it is very hostile for others, and the net could be zero. So, enjoy the euphoria rally while it lasts.

Q: What about crypto?

A: Well, I did buy some crypto for myself at $6,000, and I'm now thinking of selling it at $96,000. Would I recommend it to a customer? Not on pain of death—not at this level. You missed the move. Wait for the next 95% decline, which is a certainty in the future. And, by the way, absolutely nobody in the industry can tell you when that is.

To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, select your subscription (GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, TECHNOLOGY LETTER, or Jacquie's Post), then click on WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory

Good Luck and Good Trading

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 11, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
October 11, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(DISASTER MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE GOES BALLISTIC)
(PLTR)

Disaster Management Software Goes Ballistic

Tech Letter

In a world where natural disasters and global war has never been more common, there is one tech company whose fortunes are directly correlated in this types of chaos.

The tech firm and stock is Palantir (PLTR).

They specialize in disaster management software and even can sign contracts to prevent disaster management.

They apply unique software to deliver the best solutions for those they service, whether it is the U.S. military, a Fortune 500 company, or a state government looking at how to best allocate scarce resources during a torrid hurricane.

PLTR knows what to do, when to do it, and in what doses, and in 2024, that is a potent cocktail that has seen the company sign contract after contract.

It was only just a few months ago when PLTR was green lighted for a $99.8 million contract to extend access to the Maven Smart System to all military branches, including the U.S. Army, Air Force, Navy, Space Force, and Marine Corps.

The pact is a five-year firm-fixed price contract from the Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Army Research Laboratory aims to streamline access to current Maven Smart System capabilities, which utilize advanced artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Work is expected to enhance coordination between strategic and tactical operations, allowing the military to make informed decisions and fast actions.

Terms of the contract include support for AI-enabled battlespace awareness, global integration, force management, contested logistics, joint fires, and targeting workflows.

Combat vehicles from every military department will be outfitted by Maven to help them make the best decisions on the ground in real time.

The U.S. military and PLTR are also a common operational piece as part of its response efforts to aid in Hurricane Helene relief.

Maven specializes to facilitate battle space awareness, global integration, contested logistics, joint fires, and targeting workflows, but is being deployed to aid in the hurricane relief efforts.

While common operational tools and data systems have been used for disaster relief in the past, this marks the first time the Maven capability has been used for a hurricane.

The military is working to feed the data it is gathering directly to FEMA and other first responders. That includes general mapping data and data from various sensors that provide insights into things like road closures, communications, force movements, and which areas have yet to be serviced.

The system can also help with logistics by bringing in that data so that in real-time, based on the point of need and survey data from FEMA, food, water, medical supplies, or other goods can be reallocated to the best locations to serve citizens.

I’m not the one to wish ill on the populace, but it is almost a fact that the percentages of calamities that include natural disasters and kinetic wards have increased a great deal during the past 4 years.

There is not a company better positioned to take advantage of this through their best of breed software.

One thing I must note, management often dilutes shares by giving themselves vested shares, the stock tends to sell off big when these executives sell shares.

Wait for a big dip to jump in and ride the volatility higher.

August 19, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
August 19, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHAT WILL PALANTIR STOCK DO FOR THE REST OF 2024?)
(PLTR)

What Will Palantir Stock Do For The Rest Of 2024?

Tech Letter

Not all tech stocks are created equal.

Some have the power of connections from the beginning and that goes a long way to understand if a company can do what it takes to survive.

Very rarely do tech companies come out of nowhere and it is true that recognized venture capitalists help like rocket fuel.

Palantir (PLTR) was supported initially by tech insider billionaire Peter Thiel.

It’s not surprising that this is a company sitting deep at the intersection of strategic national intelligence and artificial intelligence.

The stock hit a low of $5 per share and now trades north of $32 per share.

Investors might easily understand this company as the war tech stock and co-founder and CEO Alex Karp is in no mood to apologize or be politically correct for its military, police, and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement services despite facing massive backlash.

Karp acknowledged the company’s consistent pro-Western view despite polarizing views regarding the appeasement of Iran, Russia, and China.

Karp refused to apologize for defending the U.S. government on any issue and he has never wavered behind their principle of powering the U.S. government.

Karp stood out for his fierce criticism of Former US President Donald Trump, but he has said that he will work with both administrations.

Karp also maintained his pro-artificial intelligence stance, indispensable to preventing AI abuse.

In August, Palantir reported second-quarter revenue of $678.13 million, up 27% year-over-year, topping the analyst consensus of $652.1 million.

Palantir has been selling AI software for much longer than most of its competitors, which gives it a leg up on its competition. It started off as a software program intended for government use, with the simple concept of data in and insights out. This helped guide real-time decision-making by ensuring the people making the choices had the best possible information in front of them.

Still, government revenue makes up more than half of Palantir's total and rose at a 23% pace. It was powered by U.S. government revenue, which saw the highest demand since 2022.

No matter how you dice it up, Palantir's Q2 results were phenomenal. However, management thinks its growth may slow in Q3. Third-quarter revenue is expected to be about $699 million, indicating growth of 25%. While that's less than Q2's growth rate, management has consistently beaten its guidance.

My opinion about where the PLTR’s stock is going might surprise some people.

On one hand, the United States has the biggest military in the world and will covet and utilize PLTR’s software to continue to make real-time decisions in a national security sense.

On the other hand, the issue I have with PLTR is not with the quality of the business, but the price of their stock.

The stock has risen too fast too furiously in a short-amount of time.

The move from $5 per share to $32 took place over a 2.5-year time frame obviously boosted by global events in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

For the rest of the year, I do think PLTR has a chance to blow past $40 per share and at that point, we will most likely reach the short-term high water mark of the stock.

The stock is due for a big sell-off once the AI frenzy cools down a little and that could be later this year.

Remember that the AI narrative has reignited in the short-term so it is smooth saying until the next road bump.

This is a complex company and with many of those, the trajectory of the stock can be many times more complicated.

May 20, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
May 20, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(AI GETS INTO MILITARY CONFLICT)
(PLTR), (AI)

February 12, 2024

Tech Letter

Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 12, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE AI WAR STOCK)
(PLTR), (SMCI), (NVDA)

The AI War Stock

Tech Letter

Palantir’s (PLTR) performance in the US is nothing short of extraordinary, and some would even say scintillating.

I’ll tell you why.

The numbers on the screen make you giggle like the 70% year-on-year growth in Q4.

It’s almost inconceivable to do what they did and I am referring to signing that many contracts given the way the product is.

We are witnessing a convergence of Palantir’s software products becoming easier to use which is leading to an augmentation of its capabilities, both driven by developments in AI, and large language models.

The heightened demand and ability to meet that demand is something Palantir’s management calls “with a pilot.”

This new piloting approach is what they call boot camp.

They did over 500 boot camps last year.

Palantir’s management travels around the country now convincing CEOs, CTOs, CFOs, and really, whoever has $1 million to buy the software and transform their enterprise by harnessing everything achieved in AI since inception and putting the best people on it.

Palantir then coaches these best employees on how to run data at a boot camp for 10 hours per day until they know it like the back of their hand.

One unique part of Palantir’s business model is their principle of making it known that they are proud of their work on the war front. They are proud to support the US.

Specifically, they are proud to support the US military.

However, this has rubbed some the wrong way like the Europeans who refuse to do much business with PLTR.

PLTR has been unable to make inroads across the Atlantic.

Yet PLTR is proud to have carved out a pivotally crucial role not only in Ukraine, but management is proud that after October 7, within weeks, Palantir is on the ground, and is involved in operationally crucial roles on the software side in Israel.

I know of no other software company in the world that is at the focal point of Ukraine and Israel and it is important for investors to know this before they decide to invest in the company.

This tech company boards the most talented, interesting, and performance-based people in the world.

Some of the numbers that can’t just be ignored are the 55% growth in customer count year-over-year.

This is the early days of generative AI in software products and for Palantir to describe the rocket fuel growth they are experiencing backs up the AI narrative.

For better or worse, the sector is relying on the AI pixie dust to carry the rest of the tech market.

As soon as the market gets wind that AI-based growth isn’t supercharging balance sheets, the tech sector will pull back.

Therefore, it’s highly positive for technology momentum to see stocks like PLTR and chip stocks like Super Micro Computer (SMCI) hit a home run in earnings.

Sadly, Nvidia (NVDA) can’t just carry the load for the entire sector and there needs to be some alternative leadership from other tech stocks connected to the AI story.

PLTR has tripled in the past 365 days and I don’t believe that type of stock performance can continue in the short-term.

The last earnings beat was met with yet another impressive 20% rise in the stock price.

Investors will need to be patient and wait for the stock to pull back otherwise chasing usually ends in tears.

I would advise readers to not chase and wait for big drops in individuals' names to put money to work.

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