Global Market Comments
February 17, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 19 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(TSLA), (MS), (BA), (BLK), (GS), (AMD), (KO), (BAC), (NFLX), (AMZN), (AAPL), (INTU), (QCOM), (CRWD), (AZN), (GILD)
Global Market Comments
February 17, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 19 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(TSLA), (MS), (BA), (BLK), (GS), (AMD), (KO), (BAC), (NFLX), (AMZN), (AAPL), (INTU), (QCOM), (CRWD), (AZN), (GILD)
Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Services have the good fortune to own no less than 16 deep in-the-money options positions, all of which are profitable. All but one of these expire in two trading days on Friday, February 19, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
It was time to be aggressive. I was aggressive beyond the pale.
These involve the:
Global Trading Dispatch
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
Provided that we don’t have a huge selloff in the markets or monster rallies in bonds, all 15 of these positions will expire at their maximum profit point.
So far, so good.
I’ll do the math for you on our oldest and least liquid position, the Tesla February 19 $650-$700 vertical bull call spread, which I initiated on January 25, 2021 and will definitely run into expiration. At the Friday high, Tesla shares were at a lowly $816, some $53 lower than the $869.70 that prevailed when I strapped on this trade.
Provided that Tesla doesn’t trade below $700 in two days, we will capture the maximum potential profit in the trade. That’s why I love call spreads. They pay you even when you are wrong on the direction of the stock. All of the money we made was due to time decay and the decline in volatility in Tesla stock.
Your profit can be calculated as follows:
Profit: $50.00 expiration value - $44.00 cost = $6.00 net profit
(4 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $6.00 profit per options)
= $2,400 or 20% in 18 trading days.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don’t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.
The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning February 22 and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.
If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday, February 19. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.
This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”
If for some reason, your short position in your spread gets “called away,” don’t worry. Just call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long option position to cover your short option position. That gets you out of your position a few days early at your maximum profit point.
If your broker tells you to sell your remaining long and cover your short separately in the market, don’t. That makes money for your broker, but not you. Do what I say, and then fire your broker and close your account because they are giving you terrible advice. I’ve seen this happen many times among my followers.
One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.
I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month-end.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
Global Market Comments
February 12, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TEN STOCKS TO BUY BEFORE YOU DIE)
(MSFT), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (QCOM), (AMZN),
(V), (AXP), (NVDA), (DIS), (TGT)
A better headline for this piece might have been “Ten stocks to Buy at the Bottom”, except that you have to redefine the word “bottom.”
The rules of the greatest liquidity-driven market of all time demand a different explanation of The NEW bottom, and that is something that hasn’t gone up lately.
And that would be big tech, which appears ready to blast out to the upside from a six-month long sideways “time” correction.
It would be a perfectly rational thing to see in these highly irrational markets. After all, these names just announced blockbuster earnings presaging greater things to come. And these companies actually HAVE earnings, compared to recent market frontrunners, which have none at all.
Coming in here and betting the ranch is now a no-lose trade. If I’m right, the pandemic ends in three months, stocks will soar. If I’m wrong and the global epidemic explodes from here, you’ll be dead anyway and won’t care that the stock market crashed further.
Needless to say, I have a heavy tech orientation with this list, far and away the source of the bulk of earnings growth for the US economy for the foreseeable future. If anything, the coronavirus will accelerate the move away from shopping malls and towards online commerce as consumers seek to shy away from direct contact with the virus.
What would I be avoiding here? Directly corona-related stocks like those in airlines, hotels, casinos, and cruise lines. Avoid human contact at all cost! There is no way of knowing when or where these stocks will bottom. Only the virus knows for sure.
Microsoft (MSFT) – still has a near-monopoly on operating systems for personal computers and a huge cash balance. Their inroads with the Azure cloud services have been impressive.
Apple (AAPL) – Even with the Coronavirus, Apple still has a cash balance of $225 billion. Its 5G iPhone launches in the fall, unleashing enormous pent-up demand. Apple’s rapid move away from a dependence on hardware to services continues.
Alphabet (GOOGL) – Has a massive 92% market share in search and remains the dominant advertising company on the planet.
QUALCOMM (QCOM) – Has a near-monopoly in chips needed for 5G phones. It also won a lawsuit against Apple over proprietary chip design. In the very near future, you won’t be able to do ANYTHING without 5G. It’s also not a bad idea to own a chip stock during the worst global chip shortage in history.
Amazon (AMZN) – The world’s preeminent retailer is growing by leaps and bounds. Dragged down by its association with the world’s worst industry, (AMZN) is a bargain relative to other FANGs.
Visa (V) – The world’s largest credit company is a call on the growth of the internet. We still need credit cards to buy things. And guess what? Coronavirus will accelerate the move of commerce out of malls where you can get sick to online where you can’t.
American Express (AXP) – Ditto above, except it charges higher fees and has snob appeal (read higher margins). Its stock has lagged Visa and MasterCard in recent years.
NVIDIA (NVDA) – The leading graphics card maker that is essential for artificial intelligence, gaming, and bitcoin mining. Another great chip play that has flatlined for half a year.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) – Stands to benefit enormously from the chip shortage created by the coming 5G and the explosion of the cloud.
Target (TGT) – The one retailer that has figured it out, both in their stores and online. It can’t be ALL tech.
Good Luck and Good Trading
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
February 5, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SHOULD INVESTORS BUY QUALCOMM STOCK AFTER THE DIP?)
(QCOM)
What’s the one-sentence answer to why you should buy chip company QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM)?
The simultaneous global adoption of 5G, combined with increasingly complex technical requirements and an accelerating pace of change drives a significant multiyear industry transition that directly offers QCOM more revenue opportunities.
The numbers are showing up big time with record first-quarter revenues of $8.2 billion, up 63% year over year, and record earnings of $2.17 per share, more than doubling from the prior year.
In fact, Qualcomm is being held back by supply constraints - business is that good.
RF or better known as mobile antennas, demonstrated continued growth with quarterly revenues more than doubling year over year and crossing the $1 billion threshold, a significant milestone.
QCOM is executing a masterful digital strategy to address many of the technical challenges of delivering a true modem to antenna 5G experience and capture a higher dollar share of content in smartphones.
The automotive revenues of $212 million were up 44% year over year, and QCOM’s design win pipeline has grown to $8.3 billion from just $3 billion three years ago, placing QCOM on a trajectory to achieve its fiscal-year 2024 revenue target of $1.5 billion.
Internet of Things (IoT) vertical also passed the $1 billion threshold in Q1 and grew 48% year over year, driven by the growth of QCOM’s core technologies for the digitization of consumer, networking, and industrial applications.
The rapid deployment of 5G in both the core handset industry is something that QCOM has planned to take advantage of for years.
In QCOM’s licensing business, their broad portfolio of foundational system-level innovations and intellectual properties across 3G, 4G, and 5G, along with valuable implementation patents is unmatched and recognized in part by having signed more than 120 5G license agreements, up from 111 license agreements last quarter.
Qualcomm has also spent the past decade knee-deep in AI research and development, resulting in the creation of the technology necessary to scale AI across industries and products from smartphones and automotive to the IoT and data centers.
To create a world full of artificial intelligence, QCOM focused on making efficient hardware, algorithmic advancements, and software tools available to developers and original equipment manufacturer (OEM).
The car is somewhere where QCOM can make some serious inroads as the industry continues to grow rapidly.
The undeniable trend is that the car is becoming more connected, more autonomous, and more electric.
A demand for 5G connectivity, and new experiences and user demands such as always-connected digital cabins for infotainment, real-time navigation, and entertainment are becoming the new standard.
This “iPad on wheels” will ultimately be powered by 4G LTE and 5G connected services with integrated cellular V2x, Wifi, Bluetooth, and precise positioning technologies, QCOM’s 4G and 5G platforms are designed to securely connect vehicles to the cloud, each other, and the surrounding environment.
Qualcomm already has 200 million vehicles on the road today connected with QCOM modems, and nobody produces modems better than them.
QCOM currently has a third-generation automotive cockpit solution that has been selected by 20 of the top 25 automakers.
This shows QCOM’s achievements in high-performance computer vision, artificial intelligence, and multi-sensor processing.
IoT products have been a hit with the launch of QCOM’s second-generation Snapdragon HCX, and the introduction of QCOM’s commercial and educational platforms for both Windows and Chrome, and continued ecosystem progress.
With over 40 design wins and strong ecosystem momentum with global operator partnerships, QCOM is flexing the IoT division with the RF division to continue on its path of stand-out revenue drivers for the foreseeable future.
Sadly, investors focused on the supply constraints “across the entire industry” as a reason to dump the stock in the short-term, but I do believe this is a great buy and hold chip stock.
This will be a technical issue and not a long-term structural overhang that could potentially kill the trajectory of the underlying stock.
I am bullish QCOM.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 15, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE CHIP BONANZA)
(MU), (QCOM), (TSM)
Cutting edge smartphones and uncontrollable demand for more data-center processing power means equipment manufacturers will need to include significantly more dynamic random access memory (DRAM).
One of the most influential DRAM manufacturers is Micron (MU) and they are poised for a breakout, which is why I executed a call spread with a February expiration.
Micron just so happens to be the best of breed for DRAM which should elevate the stock to higher highs.
Micron’s DRAM is a must-have input into fueling artificial-intelligence and machine-learning applications, next-generation videogame consoles, and in 5G phones, which typically contain more storage and memory than the prior generations of handsets.
The sudden surge for DRAM and other semiconductor products is setting up a year in which capacity is failing to keep up with demand.
End manufacturers are piling on heaps up pressure on the chip companies to procure the chips they need to produce everything from cars to consumer electronics.
The uptick in demand means that prices for semiconductor products are skyrocketing and this could start to turn into a bottleneck for chip companies that cannot fulfill orders.
There is no panacea to the situation.
There is no switch to turn on to add new chip-making machinery.
It’s an expensive and time-draining exercise that includes ordering half a year out, and even longer now.
There has been a deal-making bonanza lately with Qualcomm (QCOM) acquiring NUVIA for $1.4bn and other deep pockets investors looking to pick off the next chip company to flip.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, said it was working with the car industry to address critical shortages.
This will mean a wave of capital investment into new factories that can produce chips.
The boom – bust cycle is starting up again.
The pandemic has had a helping hand in the supply crunch with the demand for laptops because of remote work exploding.
There is simply a heightened appetite for cloud-computing services and the data centers behind them.
U.S. restrictions on Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co. led competitors to hoard chips and charge excessively for highly sought for parts.
With a severe lack of chips, automakers and consumer-electronics manufacturers are competing for every bit of limited manufacturing capacity.
Corporations are starting to feel the domino effect with Ford Motor Co. announcing it would temporarily furlough a factory in Kentucky this week because of chip shortages that has also led some competitors to change production plans.
The situation is getting so bad that companies are now asking for as much as they can get demanding two years’ supply of chips; and General Motors Co. last month asked suppliers to stockpile a year’s worth of chips.
Bulk orders are normal, but companies are asking for a larger delivery as the availability of chips disappears.
It has literally become a free-for-all triggered by desperation.
Lead times across the industry have risen to six months, from eight to 10 weeks before the pandemic,
For some niche chips, the lead time is up to 20 or more weeks.
Chip sales are expected to grow 6% this year, reaching a record high.
Don’t forget also that the application of chips in automobiles is still a relatively new industry.
Cars didn’t need chips before, but as Tesla has shown you, cars are now iPads on wheels, tricked out with the latest gadgets.
Powerful entertainment systems and driver-assistance functions like rear cameras can’t function without chips.
This all means more demand in a world where companies are fiercely on the prowl for more chips.
Production cycles are long, the development cycles are even longer and there are reliability requirements that increase the cycle times.
Companies can’t just slot in older, weaker chips to power these high-octane systems without reducing the quality significantly.
Chip companies have rung the alarm bells and admitted this dearth of supply won’t be fixed this year.
The demand is so high that the shortage could last until 2023.
Of course, some companies are nimbler than others but in general, this capital-intensive process is like a monolith and moves incredibly slowly.
The bottom line is that these confluences of external and internal forces mean that chip stocks will go higher in 2021.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
December 23, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW SILICON VALLEY STAYS AHEAD)
(MSFT), (ORCL), (FB), (SNAP), (QCOM), (TWTR)
Northern Californian tech companies stopped innovating because of the monopolistic nature of their current business models.
They keep one principle close to their vest – to crush anything that remotely resembles competition.
This has been going on in Silicon Valley for years and the government still hasn’t taken their finger out to do much about it.
The end result is an ever-growing impoverished U.S. middle class and bleak prospects for their children.
Why does the U.S. government largely sit on the sidelines and turn a blind eye?
If I deploy the concept of Occam's razor to this situation, a philosophical rule that entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily which is interpreted as requiring that the simplest of competing theories be preferred, my bet is that most of U.S. Congress own stock portfolios and these portfolios are spearheaded by the likes of Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Netflix (NFLX), and of course Tesla (TSLA).
This has come into the open frequently with members of Congress even front-running the March sell-off with their own portfolios like U.S. senator Kelly Loeffler from Georgia selling $20 million in stock after attending special intelligence briefings in the weeks building up to the coronavirus pandemic.
It’s a direct conflict of interest, but that's not surprising for politics in 2020, is it?
It’s also why Congress hasn’t acted on Silicon Valley’s excessive abuse of power.
The government likes to jawbone to the public saying they will make competition a level playing field, but actions show they are doing the opposite.
The Silicon Valley oligarchs are whispering in the ear of Congress and they listen.
Well, what now?
Fast forward to the future – and it was only in mid-September, TikTok — the Chinese-owned, video-sharing phenomenon — was being forced to sell its U.S. operations.
The situation is still pending, and TikTok has asked for extensions hoping to arrive at the next administration.
Given the app’s 100 million U.S. users, this forced divestment by President Trump triggered a delirious auction pitting tech giants Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), and Twitter (TWTR) against one another.
The White House and Big Tech are boiling the free for all down to a combined story of national security and opportunistic capitalism amid unfortunate geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China.
But the ultimatum for ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese Mainland owner, is more accurately understood as a dark window into Silicon Valley’s utter failure to innovate, and a warning signal of its transformation into a mere protector of long-established turf.
If you don’t have it, claim national security threats, and steal it.
Silicon Valley has long adhered to the motto, “Move fast and break things” – but that was long ago when Steve Jobs was busy making the first iPod and iPhone.
That was a time when Silicon Valley headed by luminaries like Jobs was actually innovating.
Tech has now turned mostly into a digital marketing lovefest with cheap shortcuts and big swaths of the internet corrupted.
The truth is Silicon Valley couldn’t be more corporate and monolithic than it is now, and they use the corporate machine to serve the ends they desire for their shareholders to the devastation of the majority of U.S. society.
Big Tech is just in love with buybacks like the rest of corporate America and the only reason they avoid it now is to appear as if they are in tune with public discourse and not tone-deaf.
I believe that once 2021 rolls around, a floor will be set with U.S. tech because they will initiate a new wave of buybacks.
Huawei, another punching bag of the Trump administration’s tech war with China, is just an externality to Silicon Valley’s inability to innovate.
In remarks to reporters in March 2019, Chinese politician Guo Ping said, “The U.S. government has a loser’s attitude. They want to smear Huawei because they can’t compete with us.”
It’s sadly true that the U.S. has fallen so far behind the Chinese in 5G development that they have opted to scratch and claw back their position through geopolitics.
Huawei not only possesses more 5G-related patents than any other company (some 13,474). It also holds a larger share of standard-essential patents (or SEPs) – about 19% of them to be precise versus 15% for Samsung, 14% for LG, 12% for each of Nokia and Qualcomm, and just 9% for Ericsson.
The writing is on the wall that Silicon Valley is falling behind and that gap is accelerating.
ByteDance produced the hottest new social media platform on a global scale, and Facebook, in typical fashion, responded by brazenly copying TikTok, adding a feature called Reels to Instagram.
Facebook has also tapped the political back channels to encourage the U.S. government to ban TikTok not because it threatens Facebook’s model but because Facebook is concerned about national security.
What a joke.
Don’t forget that Mark Zuckerberg has been attempting to destroy Snapchat (SNAP) for years after CEO Evan Spiegel refused to sell it to Zuckerberg.
The rest of the tech ecosphere has given a free pass to the anti-trust violations because they don’t want to be the next takeout target.
Make no bones about it, Silicon Valley, aided by the Trump administration, is about to do a smash and grab job on China’s best tech growth asset then do the same thing to Huawei’s 5G apparatus.
This cunning maneuver alone has the knock-on effect of not only extending the tech rally in U.S. public markets but increasing the scarcity value and emboldening the Silicon Valley oligarchs.
The de-facto robbing of Chinese tech in broad daylight is overwhelmingly bullish for the U.S. tech sector and that is why no foreign tech player will be able to compete again in the U.S.
So why innovate? Why deploy capital into research and development when you can just nick a foreign company's crown jewel?
Exactly, so innovation does not happen and will not happen.
We, as consumers, have been thrust into the cluster of ever-degrading smartphone apps that offer less and less utility.
But ultimately, even if you hate Silicon Valley at a personal level, it is literally impossible to short them, and now they are resorting to adding foreign companies on the cheap, what other passes will government, society, and corporate America give American tech?
In either case, it’s not for me to judge, and as a technology analyst - I am bullish U.S. tech because love it or hate it, revenue is still growing and relative to the rest of the U.S. economy, they are still growth dominators.
However, one must ponder when these actions will come back to bite, if it ever does. Even though integrity has been sacrificed for profits, 2021 is poised to be the most exciting tech year with the sector usurping an even bigger portion of the broader U.S. economy.
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
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