Global Market Comments
August 4, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MEET THE ITALIAN LEONARDO FIBONACCI)
(MRK), (GILD), (REGN), (AZN), (PFE), (MRNA), (ABBV), (BMY), (RHHBY)
Global Market Comments
August 4, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MEET THE ITALIAN LEONARDO FIBONACCI)
(MRK), (GILD), (REGN), (AZN), (PFE), (MRNA), (ABBV), (BMY), (RHHBY)
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
July 30, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ABBVIE'S UNEXPECTED UPSIDES)
(ABBV), (GMAB), (REGN)
After going through what could arguably be described as one of the most promising quarterly stock market performances in the past 10 years, the horrific stock market crash at the beginning of 2020 feels like a distant memory.
With the revival of the financial sector, people now will not stop complaining about exorbitant market valuations.
Despite that, not all stocks are offered at premium prices. There are several companies that remain at relatively bargain prices regardless of the encouraging market revival in the past months.
A stock that falls under this category is AbbVie (ABBV).
In the past three months, AbbVie shares jumped by over 20%. Even so, this biotechnology and healthcare stock remains unreasonably cheap, only trading at roughly 10 times its expected earnings.
Looking at the company’s profile, investors appear to shun AbbVie shares out of fear stemming from the looming US patent exclusivity loss for its highest selling rheumatoid arthritis drug Humira by 2023.
While the reality is that Humira will soon face biosimilar competition, the sales for AbbVie’s cash cow remain impressive.
In the first quarter of 2020, Humira generated $3.7 billion in revenue in the US alone, showing off a 13.7% climb year-over-year.
However, AbbVie is not twiddling its thumbs, waiting for the Humira patent exclusivity to expire in the next 3 years.
Instead, the Illinois-based company has been busy developing its next blockbuster products.
The frontrunners in AbbVie’s lineup are leukemia and lymphoma drugs Venclexta and Imbruvica.
The two generated a total of approximately $5.5 billion in annual revenues in 2019 – and 2020 is projected to record a strong double-digit growth.
In the first quarter of this year alone, Venclexta and Imbruvica raked in a total of $1.5 billion in global sales or a 32% year-over-year increase.
Still, AbbVie’s oncology franchise has yet to stop growing.
Riding the momentum of its cancer research expansion, AbbVie also recently established a partnership with Denmark’s GenMab (GMAB).
The goal is to come up with 3 anticancer antibodies, which will ultimately be able to attack cancer cells without damaging the normal and healthy ones.
If the programs succeed, AbbVie will pay $3.15 billion. This is on top of the $750 million it already offered upfront to GenMab.
However, the biggest move AbbVie made in an effort to lessen the top-line exposure to Humira is its acquisition of Allergan.
AbbVie is projected to collect over $2 billion in savings annually within 3 years since this $63 billion acquisition.
This will translate to roughly $1 per share, with 2021 earnings per share hitting $11.80 compared to $10.25 estimated in 2020.
More importantly, AbbVie gains access to Allergan’s crown jewel Botox.
While this drug is commonly known as a cosmetic procedure treatment, it can also be used to treat a wide range of medical conditions.
Just this July, Allergan received FDA approval to expand the use of Botox to cover some pediatric patients including those with cerebral palsy.
Aside from Botox, AbbVie also picked up a couple of exciting products like antipsychotic drug Vraylar.
On top of the drugs from its Allergan acquisition, AbbVie has been developing new-generation autoimmune treatments.
Two of these products, Rinvoq and Skyrizi, are expected to generate $20 billion in annual sales – a number comparable to Humira’s record.
In fact, Rinvoq is anticipated to transform into an aggressive rival of Regeneron’s (REGN) very own cash cow, atopic dermatitis drug Dupixent.
One advantage of Rinvoq over Dupixent is that AbbVie’s drug comes in the form of a pill while Regeneron’s product is an injection. This easily makes Rinvoq the more convenient option.
Even if Rinvoq fails to take away from Dupixent’s market share, the AbbVie drug can still benefit from the same group. After all, there are at least 10% to 25% of the patient pool who are unresponsive to Regeneron’s product.
That means AbbVie could earn roughly $340 million at a minimum after 2 years of its Rinvoq launch.
On the COVID-19 front, AbbVie attracted attention when its cholesterol drug Tricor was found to be effective in fighting SARS-CoV2.
There’s still no conclusive data, but the optimism was spurred when scientists at the Hebrew University in Israel and New York’s Mount Sinai Medical Center claimed that Tricor could potentially downgrade the deadly virus into “nothing worse than a common cold.”
Thanks to the promising results, the researchers will advance Tricor into animal studies.
The hope is that the drug can eventually be included in the list of treatments fast-tracked by the FDA both in the US and Israel.
Apart from that, AbbVie’s HIV treatment Kaletra has been used in China as another form of COVID-19 treatment.
Overall, AbbVie is a great pick among income-seeking investors. It offers a high yield, a promising pipeline and approved products, and a low payout ratio.
AbbVie generated $8.6 billion in revenue during the quarter that threatened to push the world into a recession, demonstrating a 10.1% increase from the same period in 2019. In terms of earnings per share, AbbVie recorded $2.02 in the said period compared to the $1.65 last year.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
July 23, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY IT'S OFF TO THE RACES FOR BRISTOL MYERS),
(BMY), (PFE), (GILD), (REGN)
For investors, compounding has long been considered the eighth wonder of the world.
Compounding refers to growing your initial capital over time, boosted by well-timed additions to increase your pool of funds. Warren Buffet calls it “snowballing.”
For compounding to work out, though, it’s important to have a long-term investment plan.
Naturally, the first step to successfully invest is choosing the most suitable stock for your portfolio. Ideally, these businesses should have growth runways set up to thrive in the long run and coupled with clear-cut competitive advantages.
These companies should be able to pay out decent dividends as well since these can later be reinvested to accelerate returns.
Among the companies in the biotechnology and healthcare sector today, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) fits the bill.
The company’s strengths lie in its oncology and hematology departments, with sales for its pipeline of drug candidates estimated to beat expectations.
With the new drugs in late-stage trials, BMY raised its annual sales forecast to reach somewhere between $15 billion and $20 billion. This number is expected to be sustained over the next 10 years.
Many of BMY’s promising programs came from its Celgene acquisition in November 2019.
While the whopping $74 billion deal faced pushback at first, the merger is expected to yield $2.5 billion in savings for BMY. This offers the company more elbow room to invest in its R&D sector.
BMY is working on combining its cancer drugs Opdivo and Yervoy with Celgene’s top moneymakers Revlimid and Pomalys, effectively transforming the New York-based company into the largest seller of cancer treatments in the world.
Outside its immuno-oncology lineup, BMY is also performing quite well in the cardiovascular field.
Its blockbuster drug Eliquis, which is a collaborative effort with Pfizer (PFE), remains one of the highest-selling treatments among atrial fibrillation patients.
In 2019 alone, Eliquis raked in $7.71 billion in sales. As for its performance this year, this heart disease drug is estimated to add another $1 billion, pushing its 2020 annual sales to $8.79 billion.
So far, 8 of BMY’s drugs available in the market generate over $1 billion in yearly sales. The company also has 9 new products undergoing Phase 3 trials, with more than 20 drugs slated for review in the next 10 years.
For 2020, BMY is projected to earn $41.8 billion in revenue and roughly $6.20 per share compared to $4.69 last year.
BMY is also anticipated to generate over $14 billion in free cash this year. Thanks to its Celgene acquisition, the company’s revenue will experience a one-time jump of about 60%.
For 2021, BMY is expected to report a 7.5% revenue growth to reach $45 billion or $7.33 per share. This is just a conservative estimate though.
BMY is an attractive stock right now.
It’s currently trading at roughly $60. The company has about $136 billion in market capitalization and pays an annual dividend of $1.80 for a yield of 3%.
In the past 5 years, except for a single quarter in 2017, BMY reported positive quarterly earnings growth.
The shares trade for 8.6 times its expected earnings in the next 12 months, which is just ridiculous for a premium stock.
In terms of its long-term earnings per share, the company is expected to report a 9.3% growth rate.
Finding value among the biotechnology and healthcare sector has become increasingly tricky.
Since the pandemic broke, industry stalwarts like Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) have been receiving constant media attention for their COVID-19 vaccines and treatments. This pushed their valuations to skyrocket.
However, there remain a number of reasonably affordable biotechnology growth stocks.
While these are not making headlines in the fight against COVID-19, these companies offer attractively high long-term earnings-per-share growth rates – and BMY is one of them.
Global Market Comments
July 10, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, JULY 17 OPTIONS EXPIRATION),
(REGN), (ILMN), (SGEN), (JPM)
Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader alert service have the good fortune to own FOUR deep in-the-money options positions that expire on Friday, July 17, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
These involve the:
Seattle Genetics (SGEN) 7/140-$145 call spread
Illumina (ILMN) 7/$320-$330 call spread
Regeneron (REGN) 7/$570-$580 call spread
JP Morgan Chase (JPM) 7/$80-$85 call spread
Provided that we don’t have another 3,000-point move down in the market by next week, these positions should expire at their maximum profit points.
So far, so good.
I’ll do the math for you on our oldest and least liquid position which I almost certainly will run into expiration. Your profit can be calculated as follows:
Profit: $5.00 expiration value - $4.30 cost = $0.70 net profit
(23 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $0.70 profit per option)
= $1,610 or 16.27% in 18 trading days.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions.
The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
You don’t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings.
The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning July 20 and the margin freed up.
Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service.
If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it.
Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value.
Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday, July 17. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close.
This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.”
One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel.
I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going.
I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month-end.
Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around.
Well done, and on to the next trade.
Global Market Comments
July 8, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADING THE BLUE WAVE STOCK MARKET),
(FB), (AAPL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (ADBE), (SQ), (PYPL), (CRM), (SGEN), (REGN), (ILMN) (FEYE), (PANW), (AMD), (MU), (NVDA), (TSLA), (LEN), (PHM), (KBH), (XOM), (CVX), (XOM), (RTN), (NOC), (LMT), (KOL), (X), (GE)
At this point, it is possible that the president may lose the November election.
He is 14 points behind Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the polls. The odds at the London betting polls have him losing by a similar amount. My old employer The Economist magazine in London gives him a 10% chance of winning using a mix of economic and polling data.
And this assumes the election is held today. The fact is that the president is digging himself into a deeper hole every day, taking the wrong side of every issue confronting the country today. He seems to be refighting the Civil War….and taking the Confederate side when even the State of Mississippi is taking its symbol off its flag.
So, what will the post-Trump world look like? Will taxes go through the roof? Will the market crash? Is it time to go 100% cash, change our names, and move to a country with no US extradition treaty?
I don’t think so. In fact, with stocks soaring to meteoric new highs every day, the market expects that a Biden administration will be great news for stocks, perhaps the best ever.
Taxes will certainly go up. Favorable tax treatment of the energy, real estate, and private equity funds will get axed. Carried interest will finally become history. Marginal tax rate on net income over $1 billion could get hiked to the Roosevelt levels of 80-90%.
Biden has already announced an increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. That will cut earnings for the S&P 500 by $9 a share. But the stock market is not the economy, with S&P earnings only accounting for 10% of US GDP.
And the $9 companies lose in taxes they will make back and more from new government spending, which isn’t slowing down any time soon. Some 14,000 American bridges need to be rebuilt. The Interstate Highway System is a shambles. High-speed broadband needs to go rural. The electrification of the US needs to accelerate to accommodate the millions of electric cars headed our way.
I believe that eventually, 51 million Americans will lose their jobs as a result of the pandemic. Perhaps a third of those are never coming back because the future has been so accelerated. That will leave the broader U-6 Unemployment rate stuck in double digits for years, maybe for decades.
So, we’re going to need some kind of Roosevelt style programs like the Works Progress Administration (WPA) and the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) who built much of the monolithic infrastructure that we all enjoy today.
At least 300,000 educated workers could immediately be put to work in contact tracing. Millions more could be employed in national infrastructure programs. One thing is certain. A new administration won’t stop massive government spending, it will simply redirect it.
And let's face it. A Biden win would bring a big expansion of Obamacare. With the best healthcare technology in the world, private industry has done the world’s worst job controlling the pandemic.
Countries with well-run national healthcare systems like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Singapore have almost wiped out the disease. This is why I am avoiding the healthcare sector for the foreseeable future.
Who are the big winners of all this? Big tech (FB), (AAPL), (MSFT), (AMZN), medium tech (ADBE), fintech (SQ), (PYPL), the cloud (CRM), and biotech (SGEN), (REGN), and (ILMN).
Cybersecurity will always be in demand (FEYE), (PANW). The global chip shortage will continue to worsen (AMD), (MU), (NVDA).
And Tesla (TSLA)? What can I say? It is already up nearly 100-fold from my initial $16.50 recommendation in 2010, and I’ve bought three Tesla’s (two S’s and an X).
Followers of the Mad Hedge Trade Alert service know that I am already long these names up the wazoo, and is why I am up 26% in 2020. It’s simply a matter of all pre-pandemic trends hyper-accelerating, which we were already tapped into.
If you have to add a purely domestic sector, a gigantic Millennial tailwind will keep homebuilders bubbling for years like (LEN), (PHM), and (KBH).
And while you won’t find me as a player here, retail will recover. The sector has not prospered during the current administration, thanks to a trade war with China and the pandemic.
And the losers? There is a classification of “Trump” stocks you don’t want to be anywhere near. Energy will do terribly (XOM), (CVX), (XOM), with Texas tea possibly revisiting negative numbers. If you take away the tax breaks, energy hasn’t really made money in decades.
Defense stocks (RTN), (NOC), (LMT) will take a big hit from budget cutbacks and fewer wars. Coal (KOL) will finally get shut down for good, probably sold to China in bankruptcy proceedings. Industrials will continue to lag (X), (GE), with no more free handouts from the government and no technology advantage.
So if Biden wins, you don’t need to slit your wrists, hang yourself from the showerhead, or cease investing completely. Just take your stock market winnings and go out and get drunk instead.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
July 7, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BILLIONS IN CROSS-PRESCRIBING FOR COVID-19),
(INCY), (NVS), (REGN), (SNY), (RHHBY), (LLY), (AZN), (GILD)
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