Global Market Comments
November 18, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE MELT UP IS ON)
(SPY), (AAPL), (UBER), (SCHW), (BA), (TSLA), (DIS), (NFLX), (TLT)
Posts
All of a sudden, and without warning, a buying panic has ensued in the stock market, breaking it out of a tedious two-year range.
The many concerns that kept investors out of stocks, like the trade war, interest rates, and a global economic slowdown, were shaken off like water off the back of a wet dog.
I could see all this coming. Even with my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index at 86, and trading as high as 91, screaming “SELL” I have been ignoring it. It usually has to spend 2-4 weeks at these elevated levels to make a real top anyway. Hedge fund compatriots who were sucked into selling too early by their own inferior in-house algorithms have been stopping out in great pain.
I’ll tell you the people who are really screwed by this move. Those who watched the economic data deteriorate all year, cut their equity allocations to the bone, and only started chasing the market upward once it broke new ground. It is a strategy that can only end in tears.
We here at Mad Hedge Fund Trader did a lot better. Followers of Global Trading Dispatch missed the breakout but bought every major dive of 2019. With double a good year’s performance in hand, we have no need to chase.
The newer Mad Hedge Technology Letter and Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter have continued to go long pedal to the metal bringing in double-digit gains for all. Above all, we took profit on no less than four positions on Friday.
Can the market grind higher? Absolutely, yes. The world is awash in cash looking for any kind of return, and US stocks, with a (SPY) 1.81% dividend, are among the world’s highest yielding. In fact, the move could continue until the end of the year.
When will I come back in? After we get a substantial dip. Disciplines are useless unless you stick to them. In the meantime, while stocks are going crazy, there is fertile ground to harvest in other asset classes. I bought bonds (TLT) at the bottom last week and they are already performing nicely.
If you remember, I sold short, and then bought oil (USO) in September, taking advantage of a spate of volatility there. Such is the advantage of an all-asset class strategy I have been preaching and teaching for the past 12 years.
There will be no interest rate cuts in 2020, says Fed chairman Jay Powell, reading in between the lines. To do so would undermine our ability to get out of the next recession. We are still way below the 2.0% inflation target in this deflationary world.
The de-inversion of the yield curve is clearly driving stocks, with long term interest rates at last higher than short term ones. The markets are backing the recession out of the forecast. “Fear of missing out” is replacing just fear.
Consumer Prices rose faster than expected as tariffs feed into prices, up 0.4% in October. It’s going to take a lot more than that to move the needle on inflation. The YOY rate climbed to 1.8%. Also, US Producer Prices jumped, up 0.4% in October, a six-month high. It’s going to take a lot more than this to start ringing the inflation bell.
Weekly Jobless Claims soared by 14,000 to 225,000. It’s the first big jump in many months. Is the employment top in? Is this the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?
Charles Schwab (SCHW) trading accounts soared 31%, in the wake of the commission cut to zero. What happens when you lower the price? You sell more of them. It’s a classic law of supply and demand.
Uber founder dumped stocks, as Travis Kalanick unloads $700 million worth of shares. He’s not selling because he can’t think of new ways to spend the money. It’s not exactly a “BUY” recommendation, is it? Avoid (UBER) like the plague.
Apple hit a new all-time high at $264, on three broker upgrades, with the high end reaching $290. The market capitalization tops $1.2 trillion, making it the world’s largest publicly-traded company. It looks like I’m going to have to increase my own target from a conservative $200. I made this prediction when the newsletter started a decade ago and the share traded under $20. People said I was nuts, except Steve Jobs.
The Tesla Model 3 returns to “reliable” list, from Consumer Reports. They had been taken off due to pieces falling off new cars and failing transmissions exactly at the 44,000-mile mark. It was all covered by warranty, of course. Looks like Elon is figuring out how to put these things together and stay that way. It follows an onslaught of good news about the company that has wiped out the shorts. Who is last on the quality list now? Cadillac. Buy (TSLA) on dips.
US short interest falls 1.6%, to 16.8 billion shares, as hedge funds scramble to limit losses. It’s got to be at least half the current net buying.
Disney launched its streaming service, Disney Plus, at $6.99 a month. The site crashed from overwhelming demand. It’s a problem I wish I had. Netflix (NFLX) won’t go under but their growth will be clearly impaired. Let the streaming wars begin! Buy (DIS) on dips.
US Productivity plunged sharply, down 0.3% in Q3. It’s completely a result of the trade war-induced freeze on capital spending by US businesses this year. It means we’re eating out seed corn to grow.
This was a week for the Mad Hedge Trader Alert Service to stay level. With only one position left, a bargain long in (TLT), not much else was going to happen. My long position in Boeing (BA) expired on Friday at its maximum profit point.
By the way, running out of positions at a market top is a good thing.
My Global Trading Dispatch performance held steady at +349.38% for the past ten years, pennies short of an all-time high. My 2019 year-to-date leveled out at +48.68%. So far in November, we are down a miniscule -0.31%. My ten-year average annualized profit held steady at +35.17%.
With my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index sitting around the sky-high 86 level, it is firmly in “SELL” territory and at a three-year high. The markets have been up in a straight line for 2 ½ months.
The coming week is pretty non-eventful of the data front after last week’s fireworks. Maybe the stock market will be non-eventful as well.
On Monday, November 18 at 11:00 AM, the US NAHB Housing Market Index for November is out.
On Tuesday, November 19 at 9:30 AM, US Housing Starts for October are released.
On Wednesday, November 20 at 2:00 PM, the Fed’s FOMC Minutes for their October meeting are published.
On Thursday, November 7, at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims come out. At 11:00 AM the October Existing Home Sales are announced.
On Friday, November 8 at 11:00 AM, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is out.
The Baker Hughes Rig Count follows at 2:00 PM.
As for me, I am going to see the latest Harry Potter play on Saturday, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child. It’s a reward for two kids who got straight A’s on their report cards. They seem to be strangely good at math. Maybe the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
October 7, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or WILL HE OR WON’T HE?)
(INDU), (USO), (TM), (SCHW), (AMTD), (ETFC), (SPY), (IWM), (USO), (WMT), (AAPL), (GOOGL), (SPY), (C)
Once again, the markets are playing out like a cheap Saturday afternoon matinee. We are sitting on the edge of our seats wondering if our hero will triumph or perish.
The same can be said about financial markets this week. Will a trade deal finally get inked and prompt the Dow Average to soar 2,000 points? Or will they fail once again, delivering a 2,000-point swan dive?
I vote for the latter, then the former.
Still, I saw this rally coming a mile off as the Trump put option kicked in big time. That's why I piled on an aggressive 60% long position right at last week’s low. Carpe Diem. Seize the Day. Only the bold are rewarded.
Or as Britain’s SAS would say, “Who dares, wins.”
It takes a lot of cajones to trade a market that hasn’t moved in two years, let alone take in a 55% profit during that time. But you didn’t hire me to sit on my hands, play scared, and catch up on my Shakespeare.
I think markets will eventually hit new all-time highs sometime this year. The game is to see how low you can get in before that happens without getting your head handed to you first.
Last week saw seriously dueling narratives. The economic data couldn’t be worse, pointing firmly towards a recession. But the administration went into full blown “jawbone” mode, talking up the rosy prospects of an imminent China trade deal at every turn.
This was all against a Ukraine scandal that reeled wildly out of control by the day. Is there a country that Trump DIDN’T ask for assistance in his reelection campaign? Now we know why the president was at the United Nations last week.
The September Nonfarm Payroll Report came in at a weakish 136,000, with the Headline Unemployment rate at 3.5%, a new 50-year low.
Average hourly earnings fell. Apparently, it is easy to get a job but impossible to get a pay raise. July and August were revised up by 45,000 jobs.
Healthcare was up by 39,000 and Professional and Business Services 34,000. Manufacturing fell by 2,000 and retail by 11,0000. The U-6 “discouraged worker” long term unemployment rate is at 6.9%.
The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index collapsed in August from 49.7 to 47.9, triggering a 400-point dive in the Dow average. This is the worst report since 2009. Manufacturing, some 11% of the US economy, is clearly in recession, thanks to the trade war-induced loss of foreign markets. A strong dollar that overprices our goods doesn’t help either.
The Services PMI Hit a three-year low, from 53.1 to 50.4, with almost all economic data points now shouting “recession.” The only question is whether it will be shallow or deep. I vote for the former.
Consumer Spending was flat in August. That’s a big problem since the average Joe is now the sole factor driving the economy. Everything else is pulling back. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, edged up 0.1% last month as an increase in outlays on recreational goods and motor vehicles was offset by a decrease in spending at restaurants and hotels.
The Transports, a classic leading sector for the market, have been delivering horrific price action this year giving up all of its gains relative to the S&P 500 since the 2009 crash.
Oil (USO) got crushed on recession fears, down a stunning 19.68% in three weeks. The global supply glut continues. Over production and fading demand is not a great formula for prices.
Toyota Auto Sales (TM) cratered by 16.5% in September, to 169,356 vehicles in another pre-recession indicator. It’s the worst month since January during a normally strong time of the year. The deals out there now are incredible.
Online Brokerage stocks were demolished on the Charles Schwab (SCHW) move to cut brokerage fees to zero. TD Ameritrade (AMTD) followed the next day and was spanked for 23%, and E*TRADE (ETFC) punched for 17. These are cataclysmic one0-day stock moves and signal the end of traditional stock brokerage.
The Mad Hedge Trader Alert Service has blasted through to yet another new all-time high. My Global Trading Dispatch reached new apex of 341.86% and my year-to-date accelerated to +41.72%. The tricky and volatile month of October started out with a roar +5.40%. My ten-year average annualized profit bobbed up to +35.06%.
Some 26 out of the last 27 trade alerts have made money, a success rate of 96.29%! Under promise and over deliver, that's the business I have been in all my life. It works.
I used the recession-induced selloff since October 1 to pile on a large aggressive short dated portfolio. I am 60% long with the (SPY), (IWM), (USO), (WMT), (AAPL), and (GOOGL). I am 20% short with positions in the (SPY) and (C), giving me a net risk position of 40% long.
The coming week is all about the September jobs reports. It seems like we just went through those.
On Monday, October 7 at 9:00 AM, the US Consumer Credit figures for August are out.
On Tuesday, October 8 at 6:00 AM, the NFIB Business Optimism Index is released.
On Wednesday, October 9, at 2:00 PM, we learn the Fed FOMC Minutes from the September meeting.
On Thursday, October 10 at 8:30 AM, the US Inflation Rate is published. US-China trade talks may, or may not resume.
On Friday, October 11 at 8:30 AM, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for October is announced.
The Baker Hughes Rig Count is released at 2:00 PM.
As for me, I’m still recovering from running a swimming merit badge class for 60 kids last weekend. Some who showed up couldn’t swim, while others arrived with no swim suits, prompting a quick foray into the lost and found.
One kid jumped in and went straight to the bottom, prompting an urgent rescue. Another was floundering after 15 yards. When I pulled him out and sent him to the dressing room, he started crying, saying his dad would be mad. I replied, “Your dad will be madder if you drown.”
I never felt so needed in my life.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
October 4, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO BUY THE NEW MAD HEDGE BIOTECH AND HEALTH CARE LETTER AT THE FOUNDERS PRICE)
(SEPTEMBER 18 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPY), (VIX), (USO), (ROKU), (TLT), (BA), (INDU),
(GM), (FXI), (FB), (SCHW), (IWM), (AMTD)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader October 2 Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: Would you do the S&P 500 (SPY) bull call spread if you didn’t have time to enter the short leg yesterday?
A: I would, because once again, once the Volatility Index (VIX) gets over $20, picking these call spreads is like shooting fish in a barrel. I think the long position I put on the (SPY) this morning is so far in the money that you will be sufficiently safe on a 12-day and really a 2-week view. There is just too much cash on the sidelines and interest rates are too low to see a major December 2018 type crash from here.
Q: I could not come out of the United States Oil Fund (USO) short position—should I keep it to expiration?
A: Yes, at this point we’re so close to expiration and so far in the money that you’d need a 30% move in oil to lose money on this. So, run it into expiration and avoid the execution costs.
Q: How do you see TD Ameritrade (AMTD) short term?
A: Well, it was down approximately 25% yesterday, so I would buy some cheap calls and go way out of the money so as not to risk much capital—on the assumption that maybe next week into the China trade talks, we get some kind of rally in the market and see a dramatic rise. 25% does seem extreme for a one-day move just because one broker was cutting his commissions to zero. By the way, I have been predicting that rates would go to zero for something like 30 years; that’s one of the reasons I got out of the business in 1989.
Q: Would you consider buying Roku (ROKU) at the present level?
A: Down 1/3 from the top is very tempting; however, I’m not in a rush to buy anything here that doesn’t have a large hedge on it. What you might consider doing on Roku is something like a $60-$70 or $70-$80 long-dated call spread. That is hedged, and it’s also lower risk. Sure, it won’t make as much money as an outright call option but at least you won’t be catching a falling knife.
Q: Will we see a yearend rally in the stocks?
A: Probably, yes. I think this quarter will clear out all the nervous money for the short term, and once we find a true bottom, we might find a 5-10% rally by yearend—and I’m going to try to be positioned to catch just that.
Q: At which price level do you go 100% long position?
A: If we somehow get to last December lows, that’s where you add the 100% long position. And there is a chance, while unlikely, that we get down to about 22,000 in the Dow Average (INDU), and that’s where you bet the ranch. Coming down from 29,000 to 22,000, you’re essentially discounting an entire recession with that kind of pullback. But we’re going to try to trade this thing shorter term; the market has so far been rewarding us to do so.
Q: The United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) looks like it’s about to break out. How do you see buying for the November $145 calls targeting $148?
A: We are actually somewhat in the middle of the range for the (TLT), so it’s a bit late to chase. We did play from the long side from the high $130s and took a quick profit on that, but now is a little bit late to play on the long side. We go for the low-risk, high-return trades, and $145 is a bit of a high-risk trade at this point. I would look to sell the next spike in the (TLT) rather than buy the middle where we are now.
Q: Will Boeing (BA) get recertified this year?
A: Probably, yes—now that we have an actual pilot as the head of the FAA—and that will be a great play. But if the entire economy is falling into a recession, nothing is a good play and you want to go into cash if you can’t do shorts. That would give us a chance to buy Boeing back closer to the $320 level, which was the great entry point in August.
Q: Do you expect General Motors (GM) shares to bounce if they settle with the union on their strike?
A: Maybe for a day or two, but that’s it. The whole car industry is in recession already. The union picked the worst time to strike because GM has a very high 45-day inventory of unsold cars which they would love to get rid of.
Q: What are the chances of a deal with China (FXI)?
A: Zero. How hard do the Chinese really want to work to get Trump reelected? My guess is not at all. We may get the announcement of a fake deal that resumes Chinese agricultural purchases, but no actual substance on intellectual property theft or changing any Chinese laws.
Q: Will they impeach Trump?
A: Impeach yes, convict no; and it’s going to take about 6 months, which will be a cloud hanging over the market. The market’s dropped about 1,000 points since the impeachment inquiry has started.
Q: What about the dollar?
A: I'm staying out of the dollar due to too many conflicting indicators and too much contra-historical action going on. The dollar seems high to me, but I’ve been wrong all year.
Q: E*Trade (ETFC) just announced free stock trading—what are your thoughts?
A: All online brokers now pretty much have to announce free trading in order to stay in business, otherwise you end up with the dumbest customers. It’s bad for the industry, but it’s good for you. The fact that all of these companies are moving to zero shows how meaningless your commissions became to them because so much more money was being made on selling your order flow to high frequency traders or selling your data to people like Facebook (FB).
Q: What’s your take on the Canadian dollar (FXC)?
A: It will go nowhere to weak, as long as the US is on a very slow interest rate-cutting program. The second Canada starts raising rates or we start cutting more aggressively is when you want to buy the Loonie.
Q: Fast fashion retailer Forever 21 went bankrupt—is it too late to short the mall stocks?
A: No but be very disciplined; only short the rallies. Last week would have been a good chance to get shorts off in malls and retailers. You really need to sell into rallies because the further these things go down, the more volatility increases as the prices go low. Obviously, a $1 move on a $30 stock is only 3% but a $1 move on a $10 stock is 10%. If you’re the wrong way on that, it can cost you a lot of money, even though the thing’s going to zero.
Q: Comments on defense stocks such as Raytheon (RTN)?
A: This is a highly political sector. If Trump gets reelected, expect an expansion of defense spending and overseas sales to Saudi Arabia, which would be good for defense. If he doesn’t get reelected, that would be bad for defense because it would get cut, and sales to places like Saudi Arabia would get cut off. I stay out of them myself because it’s essentially a political play and we’re very late in the cycle.
Q: Mark Zuckerberg says presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren’s proposal is an existential threat. Do you agree with him and her policies? Will they crash the economy?
A: They would be bad for the economy; however, I think it’s highly unlikely Warren gets elected. The country’s looking for a moderate president, not a radical one, and she does not fit that description. If you did break up the Tech companies, they’d be worth more individually than they are in these great monolithic companies.
Q: Does the Russell 2000 (IWM) call spread look in danger to you?
A: It’s a higher risk trade, however we are hedged with that short S&P 500, so we can hang onto the long (IWM) position hedging it with your short S&P 500 (SPY) trade reducing your risk.
Q: What do you have to say about shrinking buybacks?
A: It’s another recession indicator, for one thing. Corporate buybacks have been driving the stock market for the last 2 years at around a trillion dollars a year. They have suddenly started to decline. Why is that happening? Because companies think they can buy their stocks back at lower levels. If companies don't want to buy their stocks, you shouldn’t either.
Q: When is the time for Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities (LEAPS)?
A: We are not in LEAPS territory yet. Those are long term, more than one-year option plays. You really want to get those at the once-a-year horrendous selloffs like the ones in December and February. We’re not at that point yet, but when we get there, we’ll start pumping out trade alerts for LEAPS for tech stocks like crazy. Start doing your research and picking your names, start playing around with strikes, and then one day, the prices will be so out of whack it will be the perfect opportunity to go in and buy your LEAPS.
Q: Was it a Black Monday for brokerages when Charles Schwab (SCHW) cut their commission to zero?
A: Yes, but it’s been one of the most predicted Black Mondays in history.
Q: Will the Fed save the market?
A: I would think they have no ability to save the market because they really can’t cut interest rates any more than they already have. There really are no companies that need to borrow money right now, and any that does you don’t want to touch with a ten-foot pole. The economy is not starved for cash right now—we have a cash glut all over the world—therefore, lowering interest rates will have zero impact on the economy, but it does eliminate the most important tool in dealing with future recessions. You go into a recession with interest rates at zero, then you’re really looking at a great depression because there’s no way to get out of it. It’s the situation Europe and Japan have been in for years.
Good Luck and Good Trading
John Thomas
CEO $ Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
It’s been a long time coming since I first started trading 50 years ago and was charged 25 cents a share to place an order.
The race to zero is over in internet discount brokering world as Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) announced IBKR Lite, a new offering that will provide commission-free, unlimited trades on US exchange-listed stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
It was just a matter of time before one of the big internet brokerages started to offer zero commissions and this move will force the likes of Charles Schwab (SCHW), E-trade (ETFC), TD Ameritrade (AMTD) to follow suit in order to stay competitive.
I’ve written numerous times that this was going to happen and Robinhood, the millennial broker of choice, was the trendsetter coming out the gates with zero commissions and forcing the traditional broker’s hand.
The future is now and welcome to the funeral of trading commissions.
IBKR Lite is for traders seeking a simple, cost-free way to trade US exchange-listed stocks and ETFs and will complement Interactive Brokers’ existing services, which will be rebranded as IBKR Pro. IBKR Lite will be available in October.
I am not surprised that it is Interactive Brokers that is first to roll out a no-commission product.
They are, by far and away, the king of big volume trading and their commissions weren’t that high in the first place.
The customer they deal with is not like the Schwab’s or Fidelity’s who hardly generate large volumes.
Interactive Brokers is able to provide superior pricing because they specialize in data and automating.
This will enable the firms to offer no account minimums and means it will be free to maintain an account for IBKR Lite for professional and retail investors.
What will happen is that Interactive Brokers will sell off your data to analytic companies who know how to scrape the value out of these numbers.
Investors can choose between using IBKR Lite and IBKR Pro and switch between the two levels of service up to three times and then once per quarter.
The broker will re-route the orders of IBKR Lite clients to market makers in exchange for receiving payment for order flow.
Clients that prefer IBKR Pro will continue to receive the best prices generated from a sophisticated algorithm.
So, it becomes a backdoor revenue-generating function like Facebook who resells personal data to third-party analytics companies and in turn allow users to use their platform.
Order flow is inherently valuable for many high-frequency traders (HFT).
But I would say offering trade execution is an actual service where Facebook doesn’t offer anything of note.
A platform to “share” your personal information is not an actual product in my world no matter how you tweak the verbiage.
Either way, the price to the trader is now zero and anyone who trades large volumes is incentivized to go sign up with Interactive Brokers.
This industry has been getting away with highway robbery for years by not only selling order flow but also charging $4.95 or more to trade stocks and ETFs on top of the order flow revenue.
Once the best of the rest see trading volume evaporating as order flow migrates to IBKR, what other options do they have?
I predict that not every broker will be able to execute in this new model and consolidation will be ripe in the future as the weak perish.
As long as these other broker’s stick with the $4.95 per trade of yore, I hate to do it, but slapping on a sell rating is justified.
Welcome to the brave new world of discount stockbroking.
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
July 29, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM),
(SCHW), (FB), (SQ), (WMT), (AMZN), (FFIDX), (BOX)
Gone are the days of brokers shouting from the trading pits, a bygone era where pimple-faced traders cut their teeth rubbing shoulders with the journeymen of yore.
The stock brokerage industry is at an inflection point with the revolutionary online stock brokerage Robinhood on the verge of shaking up an industry that has needed shaking up for years.
A common thread revisited by this newsletter is the phenomenon of broker apps being low-quality tech.
A broker ultimately serves little or no value to the real players among the deal, usually extracting huge commissions.
Technology and now blockchain technology vie to completely remove this exorbitant layer from the business process.
Well, for the stock brokerage industry, that time is now.
Robinhood is an online stock brokerage company based in Menlo Park, Calif., trading an assortment of asset classes including equities, options, and cryptocurrencies.
So, what's the catch?
Robinhood does not charge commission.
That's right, you can invest up until the $500,000 threshold protected by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) and you can go along with your merry day trading for free.
The online brokerage industry has been getting away with murder for years.
They got comfortable and stopped innovating - the death knell of any company in 2019.
Effectively, high execution costs reaping massive profits were the norm for brokers, and nobody questioned this philosophy until Robinhood exposed the ugly truth - unreasonably high rates.
Peeking at a monthly chart of brokerage costs will make your stomach churn.
For instance, a trader frequently executing trades with an account of $100,000 would hand over $1836 in commission in 2017 if their account was with Fidelity.
On the cheaper side, Interactive Brokers would charge $854 for its brokerage services to habitual traders per month.
The outlier was Tradier, a start-up brokerage founded in 2014 using the powerful tool of an Application Programming Interface (API) which charged $213 per month to trade frequently.
An API is described as a software intermediary allowing two applications to communicate with each other.
This model helped cut costs for the online brokerage because Tradier did not have to focus its funds on the trading platform that was delegated to various third-party platforms.
Tradier is largely responsible for the aggregation of data and charts thus employing an army of developers to meet their end of the business.
This model is truly the democratization of the online brokerage industry, which has been coming for years.
Costs are cut to a minimum with equity trades at Tradier costing investors $3.49 per order and options contracts costing $0.35 per contract with a $9 options assignment and exercise fee.
Technology has defeated the traditionalist again.
More than 80% of Robinhood's accounts are owned by millennials – as expected.
Trading cryptocurrencies act as a gateway asset to springboard into other asset classes such as equities and derivative contracts.
Vlad Tenev, co-CEO of Robinhood, indicated that Robinhood will have to modify its radical business model to monetize more of the business in the future, but he is comfortable with the current business model.
But Tenev has already seen fruit borne with the likes of Robinhood applying fierce pressure to the legacy brokerages' pricing models.
The traditionalists are locked in a vicious pricing war with each other slashing their commission rates to stay competitive.
The longer the likes of Charles Schwab (SCHW) feel it necessary to charge $4.95, down from the January 2017 cost of $8.95, the better the chances are that Robinhood can build its account base rapidly.
Charles Schwab has more than 10 million accounts, only double the number of Robinhood, after being founded in 1971.
The 42-year head start over Robinhood has not produced the desired effect, and it is ill-prepared to battle these tech companies that enter the fray.
Robinhood has been able to add a million new accounts per year. If Charles Schwab relatively performed at the same rate, it would have 47 million accounts open today.
It doesn't and that is a problem because the company can be caught up to.
The age of specialization is upon us with full force, and customer demand requires care and diligence that never existed before.
Robinhood continues to enhance its offerings of various products adding Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash to the crypto lineup.
Only Bitcoin and Ethereum were offered before.
And there is one more outrageous thing I forgot to tell you.
Robinhood hopes to snatch away the traditional savings account by offering checking and savings accounts with an interest rate almost 30 times larger than most brick and mortar banks – 3%.
These accounts would have no minimum balances or no fees that nickel and dime customers.
The service will conveniently sit alongside its trading app and this move into the industry led by JP Morgan could start to derail Wall Street.
As with most FinTech start-ups, the roll-out of this new service was slightly botched because Robinhood failed to get the go-ahead from regulators concerning ensuring the accounts properly.
All this does is delay the inevitable and by spring 2019, potential customers should be earning 3% in Robinhood’s checking and savings account.
Sign me up!
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 7, 2019
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NOT TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE),
(SCHW), (FB), (SQ), (WMT), (AMZN), (FFIDX), (BOX)
