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Let the Biotech Buyouts Begin

One of my predictions for this year just came true: the biotechnology buyouts have begun.

In my letter last January, I forecasted that the growing popularity of the mRNA technology courtesy of the COVID-19 vaccines from Moderna (MRNA) and Pfizer (PFE / BioNTech (BNTX) would trigger acquisitions of smaller biotechnology companies this year.

I predicted that bigger players in the healthcare industry would scoop up smaller players to stake a claim in this quickly growing space.

Topping our list of buyout candidates is Translate Bio (TBIO)—the very same company hogging headlines in the past days following its $3.2 billion acquisition by Sanofi (SNY).

The all-cash deal values each TBIO share at $38, representing a premium of over 30% above the stock’s price. If all goes well, the deal should be completed by the third quarter of 2021.

This is one of the first major moves by Sanofi following the healthcare giant’s recent pivot into vaccines.

However, this isn’t the first time Sanofi and TBIO worked together.

The two companies have actually started collaborating back in 2018, working on a potential mRNA-based flu vaccine—a project that has Sanofi and TBIO ahead of the pack, with BioNTech and Arcturus Therapeutics Inc. (ARCT) trailing behind.

Sanofi and TBIO’s mRNA seasonal flu vaccine candidate is expected to commence with Phase 1 results expected to be out by the fourth quarter of this year.

Considering that Sanofi is one of the leading vaccine makers in the world with roughly $3 billion in sales in flu vaccines alone in 2020, it won’t come as a surprise if their candidate breezes through the trials.

Even prior to this acquisition, Translate Bio has been working on using its mRNA platform to develop vaccines and treatments for a broad range of diseases like liver and pulmonary ailments.

So far, its novel pipeline has 2 clinical-stage programs along with 7 pre-clinical work covering direct therapeutics and vaccines.

One of its lead candidates is MRT5005, which is an mRNA-based therapy for cystic fibrosis (CF).

This is a groundbreaking treatment because it takes advantage of mRNA’s capability to deliver proteins to lung cells. It’s also extremely non-invasive, as patients can simply inhale the mRNA drug into their bodies.

Other than helping with the treatment of CF, this inhalation delivery system can also open avenues for other pulmonary targets.

Most importantly, TBIO’s MRT5005 doesn’t only offer treatments. It actually is a cure for CF.

TBIO’s work on CF treatment is extremely important. This disease is terrible, recording a median age of death among patients in the US as 30.6 years old. In this country alone, over 30,000 people suffer from the condition, and more than 70,000 are recorded worldwide—and the numbers continue to climb each year.

In terms of the CF market, the global demand for treatments for this disease is expected to reach $16.3 billion by 2026, hitting roughly 16.8% in CAGR over the years.

With the acquisition of Translate Bio, Sanofi plows ahead of its competitors in the space, including Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Merck (MRK), as the sole Big Pharma company with a wholly-owned in-house mRNA platform.

This is on top of Sanofi’s recent $470 buyout of another mRNA company, Tidal Therapeutics, to bolster its immuno-oncology and inflammatory diseases segments.

Apart from its aggressive buyout strategy, Sanofi also announced its plan to allocate roughly $476 million annually to a “vaccines mRNA Center of Excellence” with the goal of queuing at least six mRNA-based candidates in clinical trials by 2025.

Allotting $476 million to this plan is a telling move on the company’s future direction, as it comprises a substantial fraction of Sanofi’s $6.5 billion overall R&D budget.

These moves strongly signal that Sanofi’s going all-in on the mRNA platform, which could obviously pose a challenge to the likes of Moderna and, of course, BioNTech.

With smaller cap companies like bluebird Bio (BLUE) and CureVac (CVAC) still up for grabs, it’s only a matter of time before another big company decides to follow suit.

August 5, 2021/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Blue Chip Stock Selling at a Discount

Biotech Letter

It’s not unheard of in the biotechnology industry to watch the stock prices of small or even mid-cap drug developers rise and fall by 30% following trial results or new drug approval.

However, when the company is Eli Lilly (LLY), which holds a $179 billion market capitalization, then biotech investors need to pay attention.

After all, the only plausible conclusion to draw from this is that there have been some seismic advancements done by the company.

Two potentially breakthrough treatments are the culprit behind the volatility in Eli Lilly stock these days.

The first is Eli Lilly’s COVID-19 program, in which the company is looking into using Bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555) solo or combining it with Etesevimab (LY-CoV016).

What we know so far is that the combo drug can lower the risk of death and hospitalization among high-risk COVID-19 patients by as high as 87%.

In November 2020, the FDA granted Eli Lilly’s Bamlanivimab Emergency Use Authorization.

The solo treatment was also authorized for the same usage in Morocco, Europe, Canada, Rwanda, and some regions of the Middle East, where Eli Lilly is collaborating with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for distribution.

Last February 2021, its combo treatment received the same approval.

To date, Eli Lilly has shipped roughly 1 million doses of Bamlanivimab and is committed to supplying an additional 1 million this quarter.

To meet the demand for the Bamlanivimab-Etesevimab combo, Eli Lilly will be working with pharmaceutical titan Amgen (AMGN).

In the company’s 2020 earnings report, Eli Lilly disclosed that Bamlanivimab accounted for $871 million of their sales.

For 2021, the market for COVID-19 treatments is valued at $27.25 billion.

Taking into consideration the competitors coming up with similar medications, such as Gilead Sciences (GILD), Regeneron (REGN), and Sanofi (SNY), the conservative estimate for the sales for Bamlanivimab alone is estimated to reach roughly $1 billion to $2 billion this year.

The second potential breakthrough that’s affecting Eli Lilly’s prices is its Alzheimer’s disease treatment, Donanemab.

Eli Lilly recently released positive data from the Phase 2 trial of Donanemab, with the treatment slowing down cognitive decline by 32% after 76 weeks.

In fact, a notable decline was already observed among the patients as early as 36 weeks.

This is an impressive result, and there’s talk that Eli Lilly’s plan of possible commercialization of Donanemab by 2024 could be fast-tracked to as early as the first half of 2023.

Interestingly, the positive news was met with negative reactions by the investors.

Eli Lilly fell by 9% following the Donanemab update, sending shares tumbling from $208.18 to $189.16.

This reaction effectively erased almost $20 billion in the company’s market value.

The negative reaction to Eli Lilly’s news may be stemming from the pending application of Biogen’s (BIIB) own Alzheimer’s drug, Aducanumab, which is expected to receive word from the FDA by June.

Investors anticipate that Aducanumab’s performance would be indicative of Donanemab’s future.

Looking at the trial results though, I can say that this shouldn’t be the case. Since the beginning, Donanemab has outperformed Aducanumab in practically every aspect.

Either way, what cannot be denied here is the market opportunity.

When the market thought that Aducanumab would get FDA approval in November 2020, the share price of Biogen saw a whopping 44% jump from $246 to $354 overnight.

Meanwhile, Donanemab’s potential sales volumes have been estimated to reach over $10 billion annually.

Other than Donanemab, Eli Lilly has been developing more contenders to boost its neuroscience division. Right now, this segment generates 6.3% of the company’s total revenues.

One of the promising drugs in the portfolio is migraine treatment Emgality, which recorded a 123% increase in sales last year to hit $362 million.

Thus far, Emgality holds at least 31% of the migraine market and still has room for growth and expansion.

This is a remarkable performance considering that its competitors include Amgen’s Aimovig and Teva’s (TEVA) Ajovy.

Another solid earner is antidepressant treatment Cymbalta, which generated over $768 million in sales last year, up by 5% year-on-year.

Outside its neuroscience efforts, one of Eli Lilly’s strongest growth drivers is its diabetes franchise.

This segment accounts for roughly 47% of its revenues and is led by Trulicity with $5 billion in sales last year, up 23% year-over-year.

Eli Lilly’s diabetes program has grown so much in the past years that it now aggressively competes against Novo Nordisk (NVO), a monopoly-like presence in this space.

In fact, Trulicity has been able to successfully protect its own market share against Novo’s heavily marketed Rybelsus, with data showing that users of Eli Lilly’s diabetes injectable recorded 60% adherence levels compared to Novo’s 43%.

In terms of expansion, Eli Lilly also won a new approval for Trulicity to be used to treat cardiovascular conditions as well.

This additional indication puts Trulicity’s peak sales at roughly $7.43 billion.

In an effort to corner the diabetes market, Eli Lilly also developed Tirzepatide.

Basically, this treatment is a long-term hedge against the pending loss of Trulicity’s patent exclusivity by 2027.

However, Tirzepatide is projected to surpass its predecessor in sales and reach double-digit billions.

Overall, Eli Lilly has positioned itself well in the diabetes market.

While it’s engaged in an aggressive battle for dominance against Novo Nordisk, there’s a lot of room for both.

The diabetes treatment segment is a continuously expanding market, with its value doubling in size from 2015 to 2015. Within this period, this market is projected to grow from $31 billion to $59 billion.

Aside from its diabetes and neuroscience programs, Eli Lilly has also been active in developing its immunology and oncology segments.

This is an ambitious plan, considering that practically all pharmaceutical companies are working on treatments in this space.

After all, the auto-immune market is massive as it’s worth well over $50 billion.

One of the bestsellers in Eli Lilly’s portfolio is plaque psoriasis treatment Taltz, which grew its sales by 31% year-over-year to reach $1.8 billion last year.

Some of the major competitors in this space are Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) with Zeposia, Sanofi’s Dupixent, and AbbVie’s (ABBV) Skyrizi.

What could be promising news for Eli Lilly is the fact that AbbVie’s ultra-bestseller Humira is going off-patent by 2023.

This means that it could open up the market to allow both Taltz and Olumiant, another top-selling Eli Lilly treatment, to grab part of the lucrative market share.

Ultimately, Eli Lilly is a business that offers a promising commercialized portfolio and a remarkable near-term pipeline, which can reasonably support an annual revenue growth rate of roughly 10% even if we don’t factor in the effects of Donanemab.

Apart from the potential aftermath of the pending Biogen news, the fall in Eli Lilly’s shares could also be attributed to the extremely high expectation of investors.

Alzheimer’s has no approved cure, and there are only a handful of treatments developed from this neurological disease—none of which are even marginally effective.

It’s normal for investors to be wary of positive data results since they’ve been down this road before and are merely attempting to temper their excitement.

Amid the selloff, I believe that Donanemab is far from a lost cause. More importantly, I think the drop in Eli Lilly’s share price presents a rare buying opportunity for investors.

Therefore, I advise buying the dip.

March 18, 2021/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 28, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
January 28, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(WATCH OUT FOR THESE BUYOUT STOCKS)
(TBIO), (MRNA), (PFE), (BNTX), (SNY), (BLUE), (BMY)

January 28, 2021/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Watch Out for These Buyout Stocks

Biotech Letter

Many predictions this 2021 probably won’t pan out. However, here’s a pretty safe bet: we will see a number of biotechnology company acquisitions this year.

Although it’s not easy to accurately forecast which biotechnology companies will be involved in these deals, there is a handful that qualifies as prime acquisition targets.

One of the top biotech buyout candidates in my radar this year is Translate Bio (TBIO).

Thanks to the massive success of the COVID-19 programs of Moderna (MRNA), Pfizer (PFE), and BioNTech (BNTX), a spotlight has been cast on the benefits of the messenger RNA (mRNA) technology.

That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if bigger players in the healthcare industry decide to scoop up smaller players to stake a claim in this quickly growing space.

Among all the small-cap biotechs in play, Translate Bio is easily one of the top prospects.

Before Moderna and BioNTech hogged the spotlight with their mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, Translate Bio was actually one of the strong contenders in the race. Unfortunately, it failed to keep up with its peers and is now lagging well behind the leaders.

On the flip side, the attention that mRNA technology has been getting these days seemed to have strengthened the confidence of investors in the technology – an effect that Translate Bio greatly benefited from in the past months.

Despite its lagging performance in the COVID-19 race, Translate Bio has been making significant progress with its work with partner Sanofi (SNY) on their own candidate, MRT5500. If all goes well, then the product should be out by the first quarter of 2021.

Apart from that, the two have been focusing on different vaccine candidates for other viral and bacterial diseases.

Translate Bio’s pipeline also includes treatments targeting another lucrative market using the same MRT platform technology as MRT5500: cystic fibrosis (CF).

The company’s CF treatment has been causing excitement among investors because instead of offering invasive therapy, this option offers patients an inhaled version of the mRNA drug as treatment.

Moreover, the MRT platform technology of Translate Bio could be expanded to cover more than just CF – a promising diversification that encouraged big investors like Sanofi to continuously pour money into collaborations with this Massachusetts-based biotech.

As mRNA technology gains more traction, Sanofi might even reevaluate its relationship with Translate Bio and decide that it wants more than just a collaboration.

With the smaller biotech company’s modest market capitalization of only a little over $1.7 billion, an acquisition could be on the table sooner rather than later.

Another potential buyout candidate is Bluebird bio (BLUE).

Unlike its contemporaries in the biotech space, Bluebird shares plunged by nearly 50% in 2020.

Although the company offers a promising upside potential, it can’t seem to generate sufficient enthusiasm to take part in the biotech sector’s rally last year.

In fact, Blue stock continued to hover near its 52-week low despite several gene and cell therapy tickers reaching all-time highs.

While that’s obviously bad news for Bluebird shareholders, I think this makes the company an even more attractive acquisition candidate.

I think it’s important to determine the reasons behind Bluebird’s abysmal 2020 performance.

The stock had a rocky start last year, with the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating its overall meltdown.

One of Blue’s major roadblock was its failure to secure approval from the FDA for its multiple myeloma treatment, which it has been working on with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY).

Then, it delayed its submission for approval of its sickle cell disease treatment LentiGlobin. This was initially set for the second half of 2021 but was pushed to late 2022.

The main takeaway from this streak of negative updates is that Blue still doesn’t have its act together when it comes to dealing with regulatory approval processes.

Regardless, the potential of this biotech’s pipeline remains impressive.

Apart from its work with Bristol and LentiGlobin, Bluebird has been working on a late-stage candidate for treatment of a rare metabolic disorder called cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy with Lenti-D.

Prior to its partnership with Bristol, Bluebird was actually partnered with Celgene.

When Celgene was bought by Bristol in 2019, the bigger company continued the collaboration with Blue and expanded the partnership to cover more genetic disorders and extend to oncology treatments.

Due to the setbacks, Bluebird’s market capitalization now hovers somewhere near $3 billion.

Given all these pipeline candidates and its future plans, I suspect it wouldn’t take long before a major player takes notice of this attractive valuation and puts this bird in a cage.

Overall, both Translate Bio and Bluebird are solid companies in the biotechnology space.

While the COVID-19 pandemic slowed down some of their progress, the products in their pipelines could yield substantial value to interested acquisition partners.

January 28, 2021/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 26, 2021

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
January 26, 2021
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:

(EMERGING COVID-19 ALLIANCES)
(CVAC), (PFE), (MRNA), (TSLA), (NVAX), (JNJ), (SNY), (GSK), (BAYN)

January 26, 2021/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Five Frontrunners in the Race for a COVID-19 VACCINE

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
April 28, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE FIVE FRONTRUNNERS IN THE RACE FOR A COVID-19 VACCINE)
(GSK), (SNY), (REGN), (TBIO), (VIR)

We’re finally pulling out the big guns.

Almost five months into this debilitating global pandemic, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Sanofi (SNY) announced a collaboration to come up with a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine.

These vaccine heavy-hitters not only assured that the product would be ready by the second half of 2021 but also that they would be able to manufacture hundreds of millions of doses every year.

This is actually pretty impressive considering that the typical timeline for a vaccine takes at least a decade.

What we know so far is that Sanofi will conduct tests on its experimental vaccine using GSK’s adjuvants.

Adjuvants are added to improve the efficacy of some vaccines. These can also lower the amount of vaccine protein needed for every dose, boosting the likelihood of creating a shot that can be manufactured in large quantities.

According to GSK and Sanofi, human trials will begin in the second half of 2020.

GSK’s coronavirus adjuvant already demonstrated its value during the H1N1 influenza pandemic back in 2009 when this technology played a major role in the success of the Shingrix shingles vaccine.

As for Sanofi, the giant biotech company will be using a previously approved influenza vaccine for this joint effort.

GSK shares rose by 2% following the announcement while Sanofi got a 4.1% increase.

While both companies shared that they don’t really expect much profit from this COVID-19 vaccine, they plan to reinvest any short-term earnings in preparatory measures to better handle future pandemics.

Aside from this joint effort, GSK and Sanofi are also taking multiple shots in the hopes of solving this COVID-19 health crisis.

Sanofi is testing its malaria drug which contains hydroxychloroquine.

If you recall, this is the same drug that Donald Trump hailed as a “miracle” coronavirus cure earlier this year. Days following the president’s announcement, Sanofi offered to donate 100 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to 50 countries.

On top of that, Sanofi is also working with Regeneron (REGN) to assess whether its existing arthritis treatment Kevzara can work as a coronavirus medication.

It also has an ongoing collaboration with Translate Bio (TBIO) to come up with another COVID-19 vaccine using messenger RNA.

Outside its coronavirus efforts, Sanofi has been looking into streamlining the company’s focus to improve margins and shift into more lucrative growth areas. So far, so good.

One of the more drastic measures is eliminating diabetes and cardiovascular research sector of the company.

Funding for these was reallocated, with the acquisition of cancer and auto-immune biotechnology company Synthorx serving as a strong indication of the direction the company plans to take.

Apart from growing its immuno-oncology department, Sanofi is also betting on eczema treatment Dupixent -- a move that saw them rewarded almost immediately.

The company’s recent earnings report showed that Dupixent sales jumped 135% in the fourth quarter of 2019, with annual sales soaring to an impressive $2.3 billion. This indicates a 152% increase from the year prior.

Riding this momentum, Sanofi received FDA approval to expand the use of multiple myeloma drug Sarclisa in April.

This marks another significant win for the company.

Multiple myeloma ranks second in the list of most common blood cancer types, with the disease affecting roughly 32,000 Americans annually. It cannot be cured as well, which means that treatments are needed throughout the patients’ lives.

Needless to say, Sanofi has several platforms to contribute to finding the cure and even a vaccine for COVID-19. More importantly, the company has managed to transform itself into a more streamlined and innovative business.

Sanofi would be a wise choice for investors interested in a stock to hold for the long term. This company doesn’t only hold a starring role in the search for a coronavirus vaccine but also offers more opportunities beyond the current pandemic.

Meanwhile, GSK is also not limiting its adjuvant technology to Sanofi but to other companies developing COVID-19 vaccines as well. The list includes Vir Biotechnology (VIR) and even Chinese biotech company Clover Biopharmaceuticals.

Despite its active participation in the coronavirus vaccine race, GSK tumbled down to over its 10-year low in March.

Although the pandemic’s negative impact looks discouraging, I think the overreaction is good news for value and dividend traders as the stock now trades at bargain-bin valuations.

Hence, investors could enjoy GSK’s lucrative 5.8% dividend at relatively cheap costs.

It also doesn’t hurt that GSK offers a diversified portfolio that all but guarantees minimal losses for its investors.

Its biggest revenue driver is the pharmaceutical arm of the business, which raked in total revenue of roughly $21.68 billion in 2019.

GSK’s vaccine segment contributed 8.87 billion while the consumer healthcare sector brought in over 11 billion.

Although smaller than its pharmaceutical arm, both segments are quickly catching up to GSK’s biggest moneymaker. In fact, its vaccine segment recorded revenue growth of 21% while its consumer healthcare arm jumped by 17%.

Overall, GSK is a compelling addition to any investor’s portfolio. Its impressive dividend combined with its diversified business makes this biotechnology company a wise choice as well.

The collaboration of GSK and Sanofi is considered as the most significant and promising COVID-19 vaccine effort to date.

This partnership not only maximizes the expertise of the two leading vaccine makers in the world but take advantage of their manufacturing capacity as well, which is a critical concern given that a COVID-19 vaccine would have to be distributed to millions, if not billions, of individuals across the globe.

May 12, 2020/by JP

March 31, 2020

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
March 31, 2020
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MORE PLAYERS ENTER THE RACE FOR A CORONA CURE)
(MRNA), (ARCT), (JNJ), (SNY), (GOVX), (ALT), (NVAX), (GSK), (GNBT), (VXL.V), (INO), (APDN), (CADILAHC)

March 31, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

More Players Enter the Race for a Corona Cure

Biotech Letter, Diary, Newsletter

Special issue on COVID-19 vaccines: Moderna Inc (MRNA), Arcturus (ARCT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Sanofi (SNY), GeoVax (GOVX), Altimmune (ALT), Novavax (NVAX), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Generex (GNBT), Vaxil Bio (VXL.V), Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO), Applied DNA Sciences (APDN), Zydus Cadila (CADILAHC)

The hunt is definitely underway for potential treatments to fight COVID-19 but coming up with vaccines will take a much longer time.

Since we already have the genetic code of the novel coronavirus (click here for the link), researchers can now use the complete blueprint to come up with ways to defeat this disease.

With code in hand, it takes a supercomputer just three hours to create model vaccines. Then it is just a question of how fast you can make them, if at all. Many proposed models are far beyond our existing technology.

To date, there are roughly 35 companies and academic organizations actively seeking ways to come up with a COVID-19 vaccine. While the process will still take time, there are several promising prospects.

Among the companies working on this, Moderna Inc (MRNA) has been recognized as the first biotechnology company to conduct human trials to test its COVID-19 vaccine in March. The trial includes 45 males and non-pregnant females aged 18 to 55.

Moderna’s vaccine utilizes the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus. Basically, the goal is to build a vaccine out of messenger RNA.

Aside from Moderna, another biotech company called Curevac has been at the forefront of this cutting-edge technology.

In China, RNACure Biopharma has been working with Fudan University and Shanghai JiaoTong University on using the same technique to come up with a vaccine as well.

China’s CDC along with Tongji University and Stermina as well as Duke-NUS in partnership with Arcturus (ARCT) are also using a similar approach.

Although Moderna’s vaccine reached Phase 1 in record time, authorities cautioned that the development time frame is somewhere between 12 and 18 months — and this is even dubbed as an “overly optimistic” timeline.

Meanwhile, there are companies like Sanofi Pasteur (SNY) elected to use previously deployed vaccine platforms in earlier epidemics like SARS.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also decided to employ the same strategy using its Ebola vaccine platform. In fact, JNJ shared that it’ll be ready to conduct human testing of its non-replicating viral vector by November.

Aside from JNJ, another biotechnology company in China called CanSino Biologics (HKG: 6185) in collaboration with the Academy of Military Medical Sciences is utilizing the same technology.

Just last week, Chinese authorities approved CanSino’s Phase 1 clinical trials.

Apart from JNJ and CanSino, other biotechnology companies are also working on a vaccine using the same non-replicating viral vector technology.

The list includes Wuhan’s BravoVax along with GeoVax (GOVX), Altimmune (ALT), Vaxart (VXRT), Greffex, and the University of Oxford.

Another strategy is employed by Novavax (NVAX), which is to construct a “recombinant” vaccine.

In a nutshell, this strategy entails extraction of the genetic code for the protein found on the Sars-CoV-2. This is a part of the virus that can trigger the immune system. This will then be pasted into the genome of a bacterium or yeast.

In effect, this vaccine will force the microorganisms to produce huge quantities of the protein to be able to fight off the virus.

Big biotechnology companies like Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) are following the same technique.

Smaller firms are also in on the action including Generex Biotechnology Corporation (GNBT), Vaxil Bio (VXL.V), EpiVax, and Clover Biopharmaceuticals.

The University of Georgia, Baylor College of Medicine, and the University of Miami are pursuing the same lead as well.

On top of these, several biotechnology companies use a DNA-based approach to come up with a vaccine.

Last March 12, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation provided a $5 million grant to Pennsylvania-based biotech firm Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) to help the company speed up the tests needed for its DNA vaccine called INO-4800.

This is on top of the roughly $9 million in funding it received from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations earlier.

At the moment, INO-4800 is in preclinical studies with plans to push it to Phase 1 clinical trials by April.

Aside from Inovio, Applied DNA Sciences (APDN), Zydus Cadila (CADILAHC), Takis, and Evivax are also pursuing the same strategy.

Despite implementing the most effective and even draconian measures to contain COVID-19, these tactics only managed to slow down the spread of the virus.

With the World Health Organization tagging this situation as a pandemic, everyone has become more desperate in the search for a vaccine because only a vaccine can stop people from getting sick.

However, even the unprecedented speeds afforded, the biotechnology companies couldn’t change the fact that developing a vaccine requires at least a year. It’s crucial to not make mistakes along the way especially since the product could potentially be injected into most of the world’s population.

After all, there’s only a single thing that can be considered worse than a bad virus — and that is a bad vaccine.

vaccine

March 31, 2020/by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Race to Find a Corona Cure

Biotech Letter

Naturally, many people are wondering about which stocks to own in light of the coronavirus. The latest development on the race to find a coronavirus cure is a joint effort involving two giant names from the biotechnology industry: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) and Sanofi (SNY).

Taking a page off Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) move to recycle HIV drug Remdisivir and Roche Holding’s (ROG) decision to utilize rheumatoid arthritis Actemra, Sanofi and Regeneron are looking into an existing drug’s ability to offer refuge for patients suffering from COVID-19.

According to a recent announcement, the two companies are looking to test rheumatoid arthritis medication Kevzara on COVID-19 patients.

This drug was initially approved in 2017 and while it failed to reach blockbuster status at the time, Sanofi and Regeneron are preparing to transform it into the next leader in this pandemic race.

It should be noted though that Kevzara is not a coronavirus cure. Rather, the companies are hoping to use this drug to combat the symptoms related to COVID-19.

This is why it’s promising.

When a person gets infected by the novel coronavirus, the immune system is activated and starts attacking the virus to protect the body. As time passes, the immune system goes into overdrive and ends up overreacting, causing additional damage.

Gradually, the immune system starts attacking even the healthy tissue and organs as with the case for some COVID-19 patients.

This means that the coronavirus is causing an accelerated response from the immune system resulting in the patients’ damaged organs starting with the lungs.

This is where Kevzara comes in.

The drug functions as an inhibitor of the protein that triggers the patient’s immune and inflammatory response.

That is, Kevzara can stop the body from attacking itself despite the triggers caused by the coronavirus.

In terms of the specifics of this joint effort, Regeneron will take the lead for the US trials while Sanofi will be in charge of international efforts.

Aside from Kevzara, both Regeneron and Sanofi have been pursuing separate leads on how to deal with the pandemic.

Sanofi has been working in tandem with the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), specifically with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), to come up with a coronavirus vaccine.

However, it’s the coronavirus efforts of Regeneron that gained much attention in the past weeks.

In February, Regeneron and the HHS expanded their partnership to come up with potential COVID-19 treatments. So far, the biotechnology giant has decided to work on monoclonal antibodies via its VelocImmune platform.

This avenue is particularly promising since Regeneron has already come up with an antiviral drug to combat Ebola. Its collaboration with HHS has also already resulted in plans to develop a MERS treatment, which is also a type of coronavirus.

According to Regeneron executives, the company will have a coronavirus treatment ready for human testing by August. If all goes well, then it aims to produce 200K prophylactic doses.

Although its innovative coronavirus proposals are exciting, Regeneron remains focused on its older and more dependable money makers particularly the eye drug Eylea.

This strength is in display in Regeneron’s fourth quarter results, which showed better than expected numbers.

For Eylea alone, the company generated an 11% year-over-year growth in sales.

Despite the emergence of new competitors like Novartis’ (NOVN) Beovu, Regeneron’s eye drug remains the leading product in this sector. In fact, Eylea managed to cross $2 billion in global sales just for the year 2019.

As for inflammation-reducer Dupixent, the treatment’s global sales climbed 136% in 2019.

Meanwhile, revenue from its cancer immunotherapy Libtayo soared to over quintuple from the previous period.

Building from the strength of Eylea, Regeneron also announced its successful late-stage clinical study that aimed to expand the indication of the drug to moderately severe to severe non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR).

If this Eylea expansion pushes through, then Regeneron has yet another blockbuster drug in its hands.

In the past five years, Regeneron has demonstrated a strong EPS growth, growing by 23.74% annually. Given its recent performance and based on forward-looking statements, the company can be expected to report an average of 17.4% growth on its EPS in the next two years.

Amid the panic and confusion caused by the coronavirus pandemic, it’s crucial to remain objective, especially with the stock market.

Before making a decision, ask yourself this question: “Will this current situation change the 10-year or even the 20-year outlook for the financial sector?”

Despite the paranoia proliferating in the market in the past months, I believe the answer to this question is still a resounding “no.”

For now, it would be wise to treat owning stocks like how to own businesses. It's important to think about which stocks to own during the coronavirus, but don’t do it just to make a quick buck. Rather, take a look at lasting and stable companies with the capacity to not only grow over the years but also to compound their returns.