(SPY) - Page 52 - Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Terrifying Chart Formation That is Setting Up

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is seeing its biggest one-day gains since the inception of our Trade Alert Service 11 years ago. By the time you read this, we will have picked up an astounding 11% profit for the entire portfolio in 24 hours.

However, this being Halloween, I don’t want to sound like I’m whistling by the graveyard. But what I am about to say will scare the daylights out of you.

I hate to say I told you so but my prediction a year ago that the bull market would end on May 10, 2019 at 4:00 PM is starting to look pretty good.

If I am right, the charts for the S&P 500 (SPY) are setting up a classic head and shoulders top. The left shoulder was created by the January 2018 rally to $282.

We just saw the head created at the beginning of October at $293. All that remains is to build the right shoulder back up to $282 by the spring. What will then follow is the crying.

This is not a matter of throwing a dart at a calendar or reciting a chant taught to me by a long-dead Yaqui Indian. It is a simple matter of math. Here’s how it goes:

*The Fed Raises funds rate 25 basis points per quarter for the next four quarters to 3.25%

*The Yields Curve Inverts, taking short rates higher than long rates now at 3.15%

*Bond yield spread trades increase massively going into the inversion as traders ramp up the size to make up for shrinking spreads.

*When the spread turns negative, they dump everything, creating an interest rate spike to 4% or 5%.

*Inverted yield curves last an average of 14 months or until February 2020 in this cycle when a recession begins.

*Stock markets peak on average seven months before recessions, and you arrive at Friday, May 10, 2019 at 4:00 PM EST as the date for the demise of the bull market. At that point, it will be ten years and two months old, the longest such move in history.
A lot of people asked why I sent out so few trade alerts during the summer and going into the fall.

In fact, the list of negatives has reached laughable proportions:

*Longest bull market in history

*In the face of rising interest rates

*In the face of rising oil prices

*Rising inflation

*Nothing else to buy

*Only bull market in the world

*Valuations approaching two-decade highs

*Overwhelmingly concentration in big cap tech

*Double top in the market on an Equal Weight S&P 500 chart

*Record retail inflows into ETFs

*Recession has already started in the auto industry

*Recession has already started in the housing industry

*Rotation to value defensive stocks underway

*Massive unicorn IPOs planned in 2019- $215 billion

*Slowing GDP Growth 4.2% to 3.5%

*Large amount of economic growth sucked forward from 2019 as businesses accelerate Chinese imports to beat the tariffs

*The same is going on in China to buy our exports

Should you throw up your hands, dump all your stocks, and hide out in cash?

Absolute not! In fact, the last six months of a bull market are often the most profitable. Many tech stocks like Micron Technology (MU) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have dropped by half in recent months. That means they have to double to get back to their old highs.

Other big quality stocks such as Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) have plunged by 30% and only have to appreciate by 43% to hit highs. It is, in fact, the best entry point for large-cap tech stocks since 2015 with valuations at a three-year low.

If I am wrong, the trade war with China plunges us into recession and ends the bull market sooner. Almost all the “worry” items on the list above are getting worse by the day.

Save That Date!

November 1, 2018/by MHFTF

October 29, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 29, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE COMING 2018 REPLAY),
(TLT), (SPY), (VIX), (VXX), (AAPL),
(FB), (AMZN), (NFLX), (TESLA),
(A COW-BASED ECONOMICS LESSON)

October 29, 2018/by MHFTF

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or the Coming 2018 Replay

Diary, Newsletter

If you missed 2018, you get to do it all over again. That’s what the major indexes are offering us after giving up all of this year’s gains, and then some.

We go into the coming week with markets giving their most oversold readings since the popping of the 2000 Dotcom bubble and the 1987 crash. Markets are shouting imminent recession loud and clear.

Except that markets have discounted 13 out of the last six recessions and it is currently discounting one of those non-recessions.

Here is my calendar of upcoming potential market bottoms. Please note that all are within the next seven trading days.

October 29-reversal day of the Friday selloff.
October 31-rebalancing of funds will require a large amount of equity buying for month end. Facebook (FB) reports.
November 1-the Apple (AAPL) earnings are out.
November 7-the midterm elections.

There is no way that we are going into a recession and a bear market now. That is 2019 business. Bear markets don’t begin with real interest rates at zero which they are at now (3.1% ten-year Treasury yield – 3.1% inflation rate = zero). And they may well still be at zero in a year (4% ten-year Treasury yield – 4% inflation rate= zero).

Earnings are still great in the technology area, 50% of the national total. The Dotcom market top was characterized by the collection of vast numbers of eyeballs, not actual cash.

This means that you want to buy the big dips. This is the best entry point for blue-chip technology stocks since 2015. With a price earnings multiple now at 14.9 times 2019 earnings, stocks have given up half the valuation gains since the 2009 market bottom IN A MONTH!

Global trade is collapsing. There is no doubt that businesses massively pulled forward orders to beat the administration’s punitive import duties, thus artificially boosting the Q3 GDP numbers.

The chickens will come to roost in Q1 2019 which is what the stock market may be screaming at us right now with its nightmarish price action.

The big print of the week was the Q3 GDP at 3.5%, down substantially from the 4.2% figure for Q2. That may be the last hot number we see for many years as the tax cuts and spending burst wear off. Next year we return to the long-term average of 2.5%...I hope. If I’m wrong we’ll see zero growth in 2019.

Tesla (TSLA) announced a profit for the first time since 2016, sending the shares soaring. The stock is back up to the level that prevailed before Elon Musk’s last nervous breakdown. Tesla 3’s are flooding the streets of California.

In the meantime, the economic data remains hot with Weekly Jobless Claims still hugging an all-time low at 215,000. But it is all backward-looking data.

Of course, the highlight of the week was the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference which couldn’t have taken place in more ideal conditions. The food was outstanding, the bottles of Caymus cabernet were fast-flowing, and we even had the option of crashing the wedding in the ballroom next door (I saw some incredibly hot distant cousins).

While I lectured away on the prospects for markets and interest rates, children built sandcastles outside on the balmy Tahoe beach 20 feet away. We had a lot of doctors attend this year and I have to admit it was the first time I was offered a colonoscopy in exchange for a newsletter subscription.

Good cheer was had by all and there was a lot of exchanging of trading tips, email addresses, and phone numbers. It is clear the readers are making fortunes with my service. Most have already committed to coming back next year.

My year-to-date performance has faded to a still market-beating 22.37%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 30.68%. October is down -6.02%, despite a gut-punching, nearly instant NASDAQ swoon of 13.7%. Most people will take that in these horrific conditions.

My single stock positions have been money makers, but my short volatility position (VXX), which I put on way too early, was a disaster eating up all of my profits. I bought puts with the (VXX) at $30. It hit an incredible $42 on Friday. That's why you only take on small 5% positions in outright volatility securities.

My nine-year return retreated to 298.84%. The average annualized return stands at 34.58%. Global Trading Dispatch is now only 44 basis points from an all-time high.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has done an outstanding job in October, giving back only -0.89% despite having an aggressively long portfolio. It still maintains an impressive annualized 20.31% profit. It almost completely missed the tech meltdown and then went aggressively long our favorite names right at the market bottom.

This coming week will be focused on the trifecta of jobs data and a few blockbuster technology earnings reports.

Monday, October 29 at 8:30 AM, the October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey is out.

On Tuesday, October 30 at 9:00 AM, the Corelogic S&P 500 Case-Shiller Home Price Index is released. Facebook (FB) and FireEye (FEYE) report. earnings.

On Wednesday, October 24 at 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report is published, a read on private hiring.

At 10:30 AM the Energy Information Administration announces oil inventory figures with its Petroleum Status Report.

Thursday, October 25 at 8:30, we get Weekly Jobless Claims. Apple (AAPL) reports.

On Friday, October 26, at 8:30 AM, the October Nonfarm Payroll Report is announced. The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 29, 2018/by MHFTF

October 22, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 22, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or HEADING FOR LAKE TAHOE),
(SPY), (TLT), (VIX), (MSFT), (AMZN), (CRM), (ROKU),
(BRING BACK THE UPTICK RULE!)

October 22, 2018/by MHFTF

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Heading for Lake Tahoe

Diary, Newsletter

There’s nothing like a quickie five-day tour of the Southeast to give one an instant snapshot of the US economy. The economy is definitely overheating and could blow up sometime in 2019 or 2020.

Traffic everywhere is horrendous as drivers struggle to cope with a road system built to handle half the current US population. Service has gotten terrible as workers vacate the lower paid sectors of the economy. Everyone you talk to tells you business is great, from the CEOs down to the Uber drivers.

I managed to miss Hurricane Michael by two days. Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International Airport was busy with exhausted transiting Red Cross workers. The Interstate from Savanna to Atlanta, Georgia was lined with thousands of downed trees. In Houston mountains of debris were evident everywhere, the rotting, soggy remnants of last year’s Hurricane Harvey.

I managed to score all day parking in downtown Atlanta for only $8. I kept the receipt to show my disbelieving friends at home.

Bull markets climb a wall of worry and this one has been no exception. However, the higher we get the greater the demands on the faithful.

Last week saw my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index plunge to an all-time low reading of 4. I back-tested the data and was stunned to discover that October saw the steepest selloff since the 1987 crash, which saw the average crater 21% in one day.

And while evidence of a coming bear market is everywhere, the reality is that stocks can keep rising for another year. Market bottoms are easy to quantify based on traditional valuation measure, but tops are notoriously difficult to call. Look for one more high volume melt up like we saw in January and that should be it.

Real interest rates are still zero (3.2% bond yields – 3.2% inflation), so there is no way this is any more than a short-term correction in a bull market.

The world is still awash in liquidity

The Fed says they’re still raising rates four times in a year no matter what the president says. Look for a 3.25% overnight rate in a year, and 4% for three months funds. If inflation rises to 4% at the same time, real rates will still be at zero.

There certainly has not been a shortage of things to worry about on the geopolitical front. After Saudi Arabia was caught red-handed with video and audio proof of torturing and killing a Washington Post reporter, it threatened to cut off our oil supply and dump their substantial holding of technology stocks.

Tesla made another move towards the mass market by accelerating its release of the $35,000 Tesla 3. Production is now well over 6,000 units a month.

If you had any doubts that housing was now in recession, look no further than the September Existing Home Sales which were down a disastrous 3.5%. In the meantime, the auto industry continues to plumb new depths. In some industries, the recession has already started.

We have been killing it on the trading front. My 2018 year-to-date performance has bounced back to a robust 29.07%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 35.37%. October is up +0.68%, despite a gut-punching, nearly instant NASDAQ swoon of 10.50%. Most people will take that in these horrific conditions.

My single stock positions have been money makers, but my short volatility position (VXX), which I put on early, refuses to go down, eating up much of my profits.

My nine-year return appreciated to 305.54%. The average annualized return stands at 34.58%. Global Trading Dispatch is now only 44 basis points from an all-time high.

The Mad Hedge Technology Letter has done even better, blasting through to a new all-time high at an annualized 26.67%. It almost completely missed the tech meltdown and then went aggressively long our favorite names right at the market bottom.

I’d like to think my 50 years of trading experience is finally paying off, or maybe I’m just lucky. Who knows?

This coming week will be pretty sedentary on the data front, with the Friday Q3 GDP print the big kahuna. Individual company earnings reports will be the main market driver.

Monday, October 22 at 8:30 AM, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is out. 3M (MMM), and Logitech (LOGI) report.

On Tuesday, October 23 at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is published. Juniper Networks (JNPR), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and United Technologies report.

On Wednesday, October 24 at 10:00 AM, September New Home Sales will give another read on entry-level housing. At 10:30 AM the Energy Information Administration announces oil inventory figures with its Petroleum Status Report. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Ford Motor (F), and Microsoft (MSFT) report.

Thursday, October 25 at 8:30, we get Weekly Jobless Claims. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Intel (INTC) report.

On Friday, October 26, at 8:30 AM, a new read on Q3 GDP is announced.

The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

As for me, I am headed up to Lake Tahoe this week to host the Mad Hedge Lake Tahoe Conference. The weather will be perfect, the evening temperatures in the mid-twenties, and there is already a dusting of snow on the high peaks. The Mount Rose Ski Resort is honoring the event by opening this weekend.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 22, 2018/by MHFTF

October 15, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 15, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or OUR HARD LANDING BACK ON EARTH),
(SPY), (QQQ), (TLT), (VIX), (VXX), (MSFT), (JPM), (AAPL),
(DECODING THE GREENBACK),
(DUMPING THE OLD ASSET ALLOCATION RULES)

October 15, 2018/by MHFTF

The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or Our Hard Landing Back on Earth

Diary, Newsletter

Truth be told, it’s the really boring, sedentary, go-nowhere markets that drive me nuts, cause me to tear my hair out, and urge me on to an early retirement.

The week started with such promise.

Sunday night I witnessed the first Space X landing of a rocket in California which I could clearly see from the top of Berkeley’s Grizzly Peak some 250 miles away. It was fascinating to see four separate jets steer the spacecraft earthward.

Financial markets had a different landing in mind, the hard kind, if not a crash.

I absolutely love the market we had last week which saw the third biggest down day in history, volatility explode, and $2.6 trillion in stock market capitalization vaporize.

I had to blink when I saw NASDAQ (QQQ) down an incredible 350 points in one day. My Mad Hedge Market Timing Index hit an all-time low at 4.

No wonder insider selling hit $10.3 billion in August, another record. Maybe they know something we don’t.

Chinese Gamer Tencent Postponed their US IPO. It seems they noticed that market conditions had become unfavorable. I know investment bankers hate passing on an opportunity to ring the cash register. I used to be one.

There is no better feeling than being 100% cash going into one of these crashes and then having panicked investors puke their best quality positions to me at a market bottom.

On Thursday, I backed up the truck and issued four perfectly timed Trade Alerts, picking up Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and the S&P 500 (SPY), and covering my short position in the bond market (TLT).

In fact, I believe I had my best week of the year even though I only added modestly to my annual return. Look at the charts below and you’ll see that I suffered a 9% drawdown during the February meltdown. Maybe I’m getting wiser as I get older? One can only hope.

This time, I managed to limit my loss to a modest 2.5% and am nearly unchanged on the month despite the Dow Average at one point nearly giving up all its gains for 2018. This is also against a horrific backdrop of hedge fund performance that is now showing losses for 2018.

The Volatility Index (VIX) made a move for the ages, at one point kissing the $29 handle, up from $11 two weeks ago. During the 600-point swoosh down on Thursday, I couldn’t get any of my staff on the phone. The entire company was logged into their personal trading accounts, buying puts on the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) as fast as they could.

Which leads me to believe that the bottom is near. Earnings and valuation support start kicking in big time at these levels, and the blackout period for company share buybacks started ending with the bank earnings last Friday.

When you take a $1 trillion buyer out of the market, it has a huge effect no matter how strong the fundamentals are. Start buying those dips. Their return is similarly eventful. I’ve already started to invest my 95% cash position.

Further eroding confidence was the president’s statement that the Federal Reserve is crazy. So, now we know the president appoints crazy people to the most important financial positions in the country. White House control of interest rates ahead of elections. Why didn’t I think of that?

Sparking the Friday melt-up was a statement by JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Diamond saying that a 40-basis point rise in rates is no big deal. The bull market is on. His earnings beat all expectations.

My 2018 year-to-date performance has bounced back to 27.56%, and my trailing one-year return stands at 35.87%. October is almost flat at -0.84%. Most people will take that in these horrific conditions.

My nine-year return appreciated to 304.03%. The average annualized return stands at 34.41%.

This coming week will be pretty sedentary on the data front.

Monday, October 15 at 8:30 AM brings us September Retail Sales.

On Tuesday, October 16 at 9:15 AM, September Industrial Production is announced.

On Wednesday, October 17 at 8:30 AM, September Housing Starts are published.

Thursday, October 18 at 8:30, we get Weekly Jobless Claims. At 10:00 we learne the September Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

On Friday, October 19, at 10:00 AM, the September Housing Starts are out. The Baker-Hughes Rig Count follows at 1:00 PM.

As for me, I will spend this week on my Southeastern US roadshow, giving strategy luncheons in Savannah, GA, Atlanta, GA, Miami, FL, and Houston, TX. I love meeting my readers mano a mano who are often a source of my best trading ideas. It looks like I’ll miss Hurricane Michael by three days.

Good luck and good trading.

John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Off to Lunch

October 15, 2018/by MHFTF

October 12, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 12, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WHY THE STOCK MARKET IS BOTTOMING HERE),
(SPY), (INDU),
(NETFLIX SAYS WE BECOME A NATION OF COUCH POTATOES),
(NFLX), (M), (AMZN), (TSLA), (DIS), (GOOG)

October 12, 2018/by MHFTF

Why the Stock Market is Bottoming Here

Diary, Newsletter, Research

All good things must come to an end, and that includes bull markets in stocks.

But this one is not over yet. If my calculations are correct, the current correction should end right around here over the next week or two. Like the famed Monte Python parrot, the bull market is not dead, it is only resting.

My logic is very simple. In February, the Dow Average suffered a 3,300 point downdraft. However, at least 1,000 points of this was due to the overnight implosion of the $7 billion short volatility industry that spiked the (VIX) up to $50.

That trade no longer exists, at least to the extent that it did in January. There is no Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (XIV) blow up in the cards at tomorrow morning’s opening.

With the Dow Average down 2,200 points, or 8.14%, from its September high, the major indexes ought to bottom out right around here. I also expect the Volatility Index to peak here at $30.

Incredible as it may seem, the Dow Average has given up almost all of its 2018 gains. Unchanged on the seems to be a point that the market wants to gravitate to, and then sharply bounce off of.

That means the 200-day moving average for the S&P 500 should hold as well near $274, down 6.4% from all-time highs made only last week. That has provided rock-solid support for the index since the bull market began in 2009, except for brief hickeys in 2011 and 2015.

At these prices the PE multiple for the S&P 500 has plunged back down to only 16 times, providing substantial valuation support that has held for years. The economy is still growing at a 4% clip and I expect that to continue through the end of 2018.

The hissy fit between the White House and the Federal Reserve was the principal cause for the Wednesday 831-point selloff. There is a reason why the president has never been allowed to control interest rates in the United States. Telling the citizenry that the “Fed is loco” does not inspire confidence among stock buyers.

If he could, they would be zero, all the time, forever, and the US dollar would have the same purchasing power as the Zimbabwe one or Weimar German Deutsche Mark.

Another crucial factor that investors are missing is that we are now in the blackout period for Q3 earnings when companies are not allowed to buy their own stocks. Companies have almost become the sole buyers of equities in 2018 and are expected to reach a record high of $1 trillion in purchases this year.

A blackout means that the nice guy who has been buying all those drinks has suddenly become stuck in the bathroom for an extended period of time.

That makes the biggest buyers of their own stock like Apple (AAPL), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Amazon (AMZN), and Amgen (AMGN) particularly interesting.

The shackles come off Apple’s buybacks when the Q3 earnings are announced after the close on November 1, a mere 14 trading days away. Apple CEO Tim Cook has committed to buying $100 billion worth of Apple shares.

Finally, my Mad Hedge Market Timing Index, which has been worth its weight in gold, just hit its all-time low at 4 and is flashing an extreme “BUY”. The last time this happened was at the February 8 capitulation low.

Of course, we will probably still see some heart-stopping volatility in the run up to the election. But after that, I still expect a burst to new all-time highs. If my 3,000 S&P 500 target is hit, that means there is a potential 9.5% gain from today’s low.

Investors raced to unload winners in the run up to yearend. Now that many of those winners have become losers, the selling should abate. Oh, and that bond collapse? Bonds have actually gone up since the big stock selling started two days ago, taking yields down from 3.25% to 3.13%. At some point, someone will notice.

Unfortunately, making money in the market is no longer the cakewalk that it used to be. There’s no more loading the boat, and then going on a long cruise. From now on, we are going to have to work for our money.

We may see a bottom this morning when banks announce their Q3 earnings. JP Morgan’s Jamie Diamond starts his conference call at 8:30 AM EST and the entire investment industry will be listening with baited breath.

Mad Hedge Market Timing Index

Correction? What Correction?

October 12, 2018/by MHFTF

October 5, 2018

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
October 5, 2018
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 17 HOUSTON STRATEGY LUNCHEON INVITATION),
(OCTOBER 3 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A)
(SPY), (VIX), (VXX), (MU), (LRCX), (NVDA), (AAPL), (GOOG), (XLV), (USO), (TLT), (AMD), (LMT), (ACB), (TLRY), (WEED)

October 5, 2018/by MHFTF

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Save That Date!

Off to Lunch

Mad Hedge Market Timing Index

Correction? What Correction?

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