We have an options positions that is deep in the money, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
This comprises:
S&P 500 (SPY) August $214-$217 in-the-money vertical bear put spread with a cost of $2.50.
As long as the (SPY) closes at $214.00 or above on Friday, August 21, the position will expire worth $3.00 and you will achieve the maximum possible profit.
This will worth out to a 20% gain, something you have been able to achieve in only 17 trading days. Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, as they say.
In this case, the expiration is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck and pat yourself on the back for a job well done.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use the long put to cover the short put, cancelling out the positions. The profit will be credited to your account on the following Monday, and the margin freed up.
Of course, I am watching these positions like a hawk, as always. If an unforeseen geopolitical even causes the (SPY) to take off to the upside once again, such as Janet Yellen announces that there will never be another interest rate hike again.
You should get the Trade Alert in seconds.
If the (SPY) expires slightly out-of-the-money, like at $214.10, then the situation may be a little more complicated, and can become a headache.
On the close, your short put position expires worthless, but your long put position is converted into a large, leveraged outright naked short position in the (SPY) with a cost of $217.50.
This position you do not want on pain of death, as the potential risk is huge and unlimited, and your broker probably would not allow it unless you put up a ton of new margin.
This is not what moneymaking is all about.
Professionals caught in this circumstance then buy a number of shares of (SPY) on expiration day equal to the short position they inherit with the expiring $217 put to hedge out their risk.
Then the long (SPY) position is cancelled out by the short (SPY) position, and on Monday both disappear from your statement. However, this can be dicey to execute going into the close.
So for individuals, I would recommend just selling the $214-$217 put spread outright in the market if it looks like this situation may develop and the (SPY) is going to close very close to the $214 strike.
Keep in mind, also, that the liquidity in the options market disappears, and the spreads widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration. This is known in the trade as the ?expiration risk.?
One way or the other, I?m sure you?ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/John-Thomas3-e1437059748891.jpg300400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-08-12 01:04:112015-08-12 01:04:11A Note on Next Week?s Options Expirations
Try as I may, there is absolutely no way to escape a financial crisis in the modern world anymore, not even in the dusty, remote Western Sahara village of Taghazout, Morocco.
There is an Ebola Virus outbreak 1,000 miles to the south, and 35 British tourists were massacred on a beach in neighboring Tunisia last week. There were exactly four passengers on my flight from Lisbon to Morocco.
Was it a warning, or a confirmation of hubris?
Starving stray dogs and cats wander the street, garbage lines the beach, and raw sewage seeps into the ocean. Rangy, two humped camels vainly await riders at the edge of town.
But satellite dishes sprout from the rooftop of even the most forlorn, impoverished, broken down cinder block structures, and the hum of the global markets is never more than a few channels away.
The CNBC here is available only in Arabic, and is fiercely competing with Omani soap operas and the Iraqi Business Channel (yes, despite ISIS, there is such a thing).
But it didn?t take me long to figure out that the people of Greece rejected the ECB latest bailout proposal by an overwhelming 61.5% to 38.5% margin.
It was no surprise to me.
You would think that voting against punishingly higher taxes and an excruciatingly longer recession was a no brainer. But the markets were expecting otherwise, and have been caught seriously wrong footed. Poor summer liquidity is exacerbating the moves.
My somewhat passable French enabled me to discern that the prices were taking it on the nose. Japan and China each dove 2%, while Australia and the Euro pared 1% apiece.
This was going to be a ?RISK OFF? day on steroids.
Suddenly, I smell opportunity everywhere.
Now we know the kneejerk response to an imminent Greek default.
However, the cold, harsh reality of the situation requires a little deeper analysis.
CNN was utterly useless, choosing instead to focus on the human side of the tragedy, the freshly impoverished Greek goat herder and the island hotel operator who can?t pay his staff.
No great insight there.
Greek citizens are now limited to withdrawing 60 Euros a day from an ATM, if they can find one that has any cash at all. To head off a certain run and Armageddon, the Greek banks have all been closed for a week, with no reopening in sight.
Thousands of foreign tourists are now stranded in the land of moussaka, retsina, and Zorba, cursing their vacation destination choice.
So I?ll refer to my May conversation with former Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, who ran the country from 2009 to 2011, and shepherded the country through the post financial crisis 2010 debacle.
His late father, Andreas, was also a Prime Minister, as was his grandfather, Georgio, who spent time in jail for his services, consider running this ungovernable country the family business.
To a large extent, the ECB (read the Germans) are in a subprime crisis entirely of their own making.
German banks provided funds to their Greek counterparts, initially to build the $8 billion 2000 Athens Olympics, which was almost entirely subcontracted to German engineering firms.
They then fueled the economic boom that followed, making possible the export of tens of thousands of Mercedes, BMW?s and Volkswagens. That bankrolled a major increase in the Greek standard of living, while adding several points to German GDP growth.
When dubious financial statements were presented to justify this lending binge, bankers simply winked, and looked the other way.
A decade and a half later, they are ?shocked, shocked? that some of the accompanying disclosures were inaccurate, as police inspector Claude Rains might have said in Casablanca (which, by the way, is only 400 miles north of here).
?Gambling in the casino? Perish the thought.? How do you say that in German?
The reality is that this is all a storm in a teacup. Accounting for only 2% of European GDP, it is neither here nor there whether the country stays or goes from the European Community or the Euro.
Total Greek debt to the ECB is now $3.5 billion, a drop in the bucket in the global scheme of things.
What?s more, this crisis is far less serious than the ones that occurred in 2010 and 2012. This time around, Greek bonds have already been taken off the books of German and French banks at cost, and placed with numerous multinational agencies, largely the ECB itself.
What is almost completely lacking here is private risk, unless you happen to own a Greek bank, or the shares of other Greek companies.
What?s more, all of this is happening in the face of a massive 60 billion a month ECB quantitative easing program. The amount Greece owes comes to less than two days worth of this amount.
Never take a liquidity crisis in the middle of a structural global cash glut too seriously.
Even this paltry amount can be easily refinanced by the International Monetary Fund on a slow day. That?s what they are there for.
This pales in comparison to the 39 billion euros spent to bail out the Spanish banking system a few years ago, or the $4 billion IMF rescue of the United Kingdom in 1976.
In the end, the amounts are sofa change to the Chinese, who are starved for high yield investments. It was they who nailed the top of the last European bond yield spike (on my advice, I might add), acting as the buyer of last resort then.
In the end this will be solved, as have all international debt crises since time immemorial, since the British seized the Suez Canal from the French as collateral for bad debts in 1882. Extend and pretend. Move debt maturities out another ten years and hope everything gets solved by then.
It always works.
What all of this does do is create a great buying opportunity for the assets not directly involved in this crisis, notably US equities. Modest over valuation has encumbered main indexes with declining volumes, narrowing breadth, and shrinking volatility for all of 2015.
At the very least, the Euro crisis du jour will present a second test of the (SPY) 200-day moving average at $205.74. The best case is that it gives us a real gift, a visit to a full 10% retreat to $193, a pullback whose ferociousness has not been seen since October.
That?s where you load the boat for a rally to new index highs at yearend.
You can expect similar moves in other assets classes.
In this scenario, volatility (VIX) will rocket to 30%. The Euro (FXE) collapses to $103 once more, and the Japanese yen (FXY) revisits $82. Treasury bonds (TLT) enjoy a flight to safety bid that takes yields at least back to 2.30%. Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) do nothing, as usual.
For followers of my Trade Alert service, this is all a dream come true. Having made 26.71%, or much more, in the first half of this year, you now have the opportunity to repeat this feat in the second half.
Going into a crisis like this with 100% cash and only dry powder is every trader?s wildest fantasy. Make sure you let the current Greek debt crisis play out before you commit.
This is what you all pay me for. At least I?ll get something for suffering through the hell holes and gin joints of West Africa.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/George-Papandreou.jpg356326Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-07-06 10:27:462015-07-06 10:27:46Cashing in on the Greek Crisis
When the US Department of Labor announced its blockbuster May nonfarm payroll showing a 280,000 gain, stocks behaved like the world had just ended.
The 32,000 in March and April upward revisions didn?t help either.
You would think data showing that the economy is improving much faster than many realized would be positive for ?RISK ON? equity investments.
It wasn?t.
Now, the laser focus is on the bond market, which is collapsing globally. The complete disappearance of liquidity is exacerbating the moves.
Bond traders are now hyper sensitive to any news of a stronger American economy, which will soon lead to higher interest rate rises by Janet Yellen?s Federal Reserve.
A world is ending, but not the one you think. The zero interest rate regime on which we have all become heavily addicted over the last eight years is about to go into the history books.
Welcome to the looking glass world of investment these days. Good new is bad news and bad news good.
Players are in a manic depressive mood, expecting the economy to plunge into recession one month, and then discounting a robust recovery the next.
Then there?s Greece, which threatens to default on its debt on alternate days, and then offers to pay on the others. This has prompted the Euro (FXE) to undergo more gyrations than a circus contortionist.
Not a friendly environment for a trader. Sturm und drang with no net movement in the indexes doesn?t pave the road to trading riches. Even staying long volatility (VIX) is not working, unless you have the fastest finger in Chicago.
This is why I am keeping the Mad Hedge Fund Trader model trading portfolio to an absolute minimum bare bones of positions, a single 10% weighting in the S&P 500 that I snapped up at the Friday lows. And even that one has me edgy.
After polling many of my most loyal, long-term readers, I learned that they would rather see a small number of great trades than a large number of positions that include a few losers.
So, cherry picking it is, at least, for now.
To say that the nonfarm was fantastic is something of an under statement.
Private nonfarm jobs jumped by a dynamic 262,000. High paying professional and business services employment increased by a runaway 63,000. Leisure and hospitality ramped up to 57,000. Health care picked up 47,000.
The big loser was mining (coal, gold, silver), which shed 17,000 jobs. Headline unemployment held steady at 5.5%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%.
It was almost a perfect report.
It certainly reinforces my own forecast of a hot 3% GDP growth rate for the final three quarters of 2015. The question bedeviling traders and investors alike now is, ?How much of this growth is already discounted in today?s prices??
You almost wonder if stocks are tired of going up, which have been appreciating for more than six years. Stock buyers need a new story.
With a discount Euro beckoning, it sounds like this summer will be the best ever to take a long vacation.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Pogo-Stick.jpg390168Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-06-08 09:22:402015-06-08 09:22:40Why Stocks Hated the May Nonfarm Payroll
I think I have figured out the course of the global financial markets over the next few months.
We are currently transitioning from an economic data flow from Q1 that was very weak, to the second quarter, which will almost certainly deliver us a robust set of numbers. This is on the heels of a white hot Q1, 2014.
Hot, cold, hot; this is a trader?s dream come true, as it gives us the volatility we need to make a fortune, as we skillfully weave in and out of these gyrations.
That is, if you read the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader.
This is not a new thing. A weak Q1 has been a recurring event over the last 30 years. The anomaly has been so reliable that not a few traders have been able to earn a living from it. :) Heaven help us if the government ever tries to fix it.
To further complicate matters, some markets see this, while others have yet to open their eyes.
The stock market (SPY), (QQQ), (IWM) agree with my view, probing new all time highs, while companies announce diabolical Q1 earnings (Twitter (TWTR)? Yikes!). So do commodities, like oil (USO) and copper (FCX), whose recent strength suggests we are on the doorstep of a great economic Golden Age.
However, the foreign exchange market (FXE), (FXY) doesn?t see it this way. They can only comprehend the last data point that just crossed the tape.
If it is weak, they assume the Federal Reserve won?t even think about raising interest rates until well into 2016. If it is healthy, they bet the Fed will jack up rates tomorrow.
You might assume this is ridiculous, and you?d be right. However, forex traders live in a world where interest rate differentials are the principal, and to many the only driver of foreign exchange rates.
One market is right, and one is wrong. Did I mention that this is also a license for we nimble traders to print money?
Of course, you can play both side of the fence, as I do. That?s how I was able to coin it with a long position in the euro (a weak economy trade) the same day my long US equity portfolio (a strong economy trade) was going through the roof.
Let me give you another iteration of these scenarios. Inside the dollar correction we are seeing a pronounced sector rotation among US stocks.
Traders are moving out of small caps (IWM) that sheltered then from a strong dollar into large caps (SPY). They are also taking profits in biotech and rolling it into financials (GS), cyber security (PANW) and solar (TAN).
Goldman Sachs (GS) gave us more rocket fuel for the bull case for of American stocks this morning. The sage investment bank, in which my Trade Alert Service currently maintains a profitable long position, says that corporations will return a mind blowing $1 trillion to investors in 2015.
Share buy back from companies should rise by 18%, while dividends should pop by 7%. It is all a continuation of a six-year trend.
Apple (AAPL) certainly kicked off this quarter?s cavalcade of higher payouts on Monday, when it added $50 billion to its own stock repurchase program and jacked up its dividend by 11%.
Markets could get even more interesting after next week, when some 80% of S&P 500 companies will have existed the ?black out? period when they are not allowed by SEC regulations to buy their own stock.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Fox-Hunt-e1430337987633.jpg256400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-04-30 01:05:092015-04-30 01:05:09How the Markets Will Play Out This Quarter
I?ll let you in on my top secret investment strategy that has brought me blockbuster results over the past six years.
Listen to the Wharton Business School?s professor, Jeremy Siegel.
The good doctor has been unremittingly bullish year in and year out, nearly pegging the stock index performance annually.
So, when he says that the Dow Average is going to rise to 20,000 by the end of 2015, that?s good enough for me. In fact Siegel thinks that at current price earnings multiple of 17 times, the bull market has years to run.
It would not be until we hit nosebleed levels of 25X or 30X earnings that he would get worried. And the current ultra low level of interest might even make these high multiple numbers justifiable.
So for the foreseeable future, we are going to see long periods of tedious range trading, followed by frenetic rounds of buying, once the market decides that it is time to discount the next rise in corporate earnings.
We happen to be in one of those range-trading periods right now, which my partner, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, thinks could last all the way until September.
Actually, it is a little more complicated than that.
There is good reason for the stock market to go to sleep over the next two weeks.
Do you hear that great sucking sound? That is the noise of 170 million tax payers writing checks to the US Internal Revenue Service.
Foreign readers may not realize this, but tax payments are due in the United States on April 15 every year. I would ask for your sympathy, but I know all of you pay far more in taxes than we do. I know, because I used to pay them myself when I lived abroad for 23 years.
Of the $6 trillion in revenues from all sources due to Uncle Sam in 2015, 37%, or $2.2 trillion will come in the form of individual income taxes. That is a big hit for the financial system. That means for the next two weeks there won?t be any extra money lying around to put into the stock market.
There is another reason why the stock indexes are stagnating here. The Q1, 2015 corporate earnings reporting season kicks off when Alcoa (AA) reports on April 8, or in six trading days. Until then, we are in the quiet period, and companies are not allowed the buy back their own stock.
This is a big deal, since companies buying back their own shares have provided major support for the stock market for many years. Possibly a quarter of all the net cash flow pouring into stocks since 2009 has come from this source.
Take it away, even for a short period, and the most bullish thing the market can do is move sideways, which is exactly what it has been doing for the past two months.
What happens when the tax payment deadline passes and the quiet period ends? Stocks take off like a bat out of hell. That will take us to the spring interim peak.
This is why I strapped on three new ?RISK ON? positions last Friday, longs in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) and a short in the euro (FXE).
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Shhhh-e1427748076919.jpg300400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-03-31 01:04:342015-03-31 01:04:34Entering the Quiet Time
I am sitting here at the Lone Eagle Grill in Incline Village, Nevada, enjoying a rare solo lunch. No one is asking me about the future of interest rates, if there is any gold inside Fort Knox or if the aliens really landed at Roswell, New Mexico.
My table overlooks majestic Lake Tahoe, and a brace of mallard ducks has just skidded across the smooth surface for a landing.
My big score last night was coming across a wild bobcat, the first I had ever seen in the Sierras. After cautiously studying me for a minute with his bright yellow glowing eyes, he scampered up the mountain.
My pastrami sandwich is cooked to perfection, and would give Manhattan?s best culinary effort a run for its money. In fact, I have enough food here for two entire meals. Bring on the doggie bag!
After surviving a meat grinder of a January, putting the pedal to the metal in February, and dodging the raindrops of March, the model-trading portfolio of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a year-to-date gain of 10%.
We have generated profits for followers every month this year, and are now a mere 4.75% short of a new all time performance high.
Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker, and myself have performed like tag team wrestlers, delivering winners for our paid subscribers one right after the other. Some 12 out of my last 14 Trade Alerts have been profitable.
I managed to nail the collapse in the euro (FXE), (EUO) big time, backing that up with profitable long positions in the S&P 500 (SPY), the Russell 2000, and Gilead Sciences (GILD).
When the markets turned jittery, I coined it with short positions in Alcoa (AA), QUALCOM (QCOM) and AT&T (T).
Only a premature long in oil (LINE) and a short in Treasuries (TBT) have scarred my numbers so far this year.
Jim has been on an absolute hot streak in 2015, shaking the Bull Run in biotechs for all it is worth (ZIOP), (THRX), (ZTS) and executing some perfectly times shorts in oil (USO).
This is compared to the miserable performance of the Dow Average, which is up a pitiful +2% during the same period.
The nearly four and a half year return of my Trade Alert service is now at an amazing 162.4%, compared to a far more modest increase for the Dow Average during the same period of only 51%.
That brings my averaged annualized return up to 38.2%. Not bad in this zero interest rate world. It appears better to take on some risk and reach for capital gains and trading profits, than surrender to the paltry fixed income yields out there.
This has been the profit since my groundbreaking trade mentoring service was first launched in 2010. Thousands of followers now earn a full time living solely from my Trade Alerts, a development of which I am immensely proud.
What saved my bacon this month was my instant and accurate decoding of Fed chairman Janet Yellen?s cryptic comments on the future of possible interest rate hikes, or the lack thereof.
We got to eat our ?patience? and have it too.
Wall Street gets so greedy, and takes out so much money for itself, there is now nothing left for the individual investor any more. They literally kill the goose that lays the golden egg.
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader seeks to address this imbalance and level the playing field for the average Joe. Looking at the testimonials that come in every day, I?d say we?ve accomplished that goal.
It has all been a vindication of the trading and investment strategy that I have been preaching to followers for the past seven years.
Quite a few followers were able to move fast enough to cash in on my trading recommendations. To read the plaudits yourself, please go to my testimonials page by clicking here.
Watch this space, because the crack team at Mad Hedge Fund Trader has more new products and services cooking in the oven. You?ll hear about them as soon as they are out of beta testing.
Our business is booming, so I am plowing profits back in to enhance our added value for you.
The coming year promises to deliver a harvest of new trading opportunities. The big driver will be a global synchronized recovery that promises to drive markets into the stratosphere by the end of 2015.
Global Trading Dispatch, my highly innovative and successful trade-mentoring program, earned a net return for readers of 40.17% in 2011, 14.87% in 2012, and 67.45% in 2013, and 30.3% in 2014.
Our flagship product,?Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO, costs $4,500 a year. It includes?Global Trading Dispatch(my trade alert service and daily newsletter). You get a real-time trading portfolio, an enormous research database and live biweekly strategy webinars. You also get Jim Parker?s?Mad Day Trader?service and?The Opening Bell with Jim Parker.
To subscribe, please go to my website, ?www.madhedgefundtrader.com, click on the ?Memberships? located on the second row of tabs.
By the way, those of you who ran up huge profits with your euro shorts in January and February, and the overnight killing I scored with the Russell 2000 (IWM) this week, you all owe me new testimonials.
Ship em in!
Oh, and buy the way, there is no gold in Fort Knox. That is why Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1973. And the aliens did land at Roswell. Where do you think my iPhone and Tesla came from?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/John-Thomas5.jpg398393Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-03-23 01:03:592015-03-23 01:03:59Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits 10% Profit in 2015
We have several options positions that expire on Friday, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.
These include:
The Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) February $84-$87 vertical bear put spread
The Gilead Sciences (GILD) February $87.50-$92.50 vertical bull call spread
The S&P 500 (SPY) February $199-$202 vertical bull call spread
My bets that (GILD) and the (SPY) would rise, and that the (FXY) would fall during January and February proved dead on accurate. We got a further kicker with the two stock positions in that we captured a dramatic plunge in volatility (VIX).
Provided that some 9/11 type event doesn?t occur today, all three positions should expire at their maximum profit point. In that case, your profits on these positions will amount to 13% for the (FXY), 19% for (GILD) and 20% for the (SPY).
This will bring us a fabulous 5.58% profit so far for February, and a market beating 6.11% for year-to-date 2015.
Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions. The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck and pat yourself on the back for a job well done. You don?t have to do anything.
Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long put position to cover the short put position, cancelling out the total holding. Ditto for the call spreads. The profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning, and he margin freed up.
If you don?t see the cash show up in you account on Monday, get on the blower immediately. Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally mistakes do occur. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue.
I don?t usually run positions into expiration like this, preferring to take profits two weeks ahead of time, as the risk reward is no longer that favorable.
But we have a ton of cash right now, and I don?t see any other great entry points for the moment. Better to keep the cash working and duck the double commissions. This time being a pig paid off handsomely.
If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration. This is known in the trade as the ?expiration risk.?
One way or the other, I?m sure you?ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be.
This expiration will leave me with a very rare 100% cash position. I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It?s all about getting that ?buy low, sell high? thing going again.
There are already interesting trades setting up in bonds (TLT), the (SPY), the Russell 2000 (IWM), NASDAQ (QQQ), solar stocks (SCTY), oil (USO), and gold (GLD).
The currencies seem to have gone dead for the time being, so I?ll stay away.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Pat-on-the-back-e1424375419249.jpg259400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-02-20 01:04:322015-02-20 01:04:32A Note on the Friday Options Expiration
At yesterday morning?s opening bell, we were greeted with the unmistakable evidence the stock market is technically breaking down.
The Dow Average has broken its three-year upward sloping trend line. Market leading sectors, like Consumer Discretionary and Financials have all put in eminently convincing ?Head and Shoulders? tops (click here). More distressingly, the head and shoulders for lead sector Technology has already broken down. Check out all the charts below.
I quickly ran my expiration P&L this morning. I figured out that if I sold all my longs for small profits (SPY), (IWM), and kept all my short positions (FXY), (T), (AA), I would be up 4.43% year to date by mid February, which in this environment is nothing less than heroic. The exception to the analysis is my sale of Linn Energy (LINE), which will be the subject of my next piece.
For more detail on why this is happening, read today?s letter, ?The Great American Rot is Ending? by clicking here).
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Skydiver-e1422906198890.jpg253400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-02-03 01:04:522015-02-03 01:04:52The Market?s Technical Outlook is Terrible
When is the Mad Hedge Fund Trader a genius, and when is he a complete moron?
That is the question readers have to ask themselves whenever their smart phones ping, and a new Trade Alert appears on their screens.
I have to confess that I wonder myself sometimes.
So I thought I would run my 2014 numbers to find out when I was a hero, and when I was a goat.
The good news is that I was a hero most of the time, and a goat only occasionally. Here is the cumulative profit and loss for the 75 Trade Alerts that I closed during calendar 2014, listed by asset class.
Profit by Asset Class
Foreign Exchange 15.12% Equities 12.52% Fixed Income 7.28% Energy 1.4% Volatility -1.68%
Total 37.64%
Foreign exchange trading was my big winner for 2014, accounting for nearly half of my profits. My most successful trade of the year was in my short position in the Euro (FXE), (EUO).
I piled on a double position at the end of July, just as it became apparent that the beleaguered European currency was about to break out of a multi month sideway move into a pronounced new downtrend.
I then kept rolling the strikes down every month. Those who bought the short Euro 2X ETF (EUO) made even more.
The fundamentals for the Euro were bad and steadily worsening. It helped that I was there for two months during the summer and could clearly see how grotesquely overvalued the currency was. $20 for a cappuccino? Mama mia!
Nothing beats on the ground, first hand research.
Stocks generated another third of my profits last year and also accounted for my largest number of Trade Alerts.
I correctly identified technology and biotech as the lead sectors for the year, weaving in and out of Apple (AAPL) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) on many occasions. I also nailed the recovery of the US auto industry (GM), (F).
I safely stayed away from the energy sector until the very end of the year, when oil hit the $50 handle. I also prudently avoided commodities like the plague.
Unfortunately, I was wrong on the bond market for the entire year. That didn?t stop me from making money on the short side on price spikes, with fixed income chipping a healthy 7.28% into the kitty.
It was only at the end of the year, when the prices accelerated their northward trend that they started to cost me money. My saving grace was that I kept positions small throughout, doubling up on a single occasion and then coming right back out.
My one trade in the energy sector for the year was on the short side, in natural gas (UNG), selling the simple molecule at the $5.50 level. With gas now plumbing the depths at $2.90, I should have followed up with more Trade Alerts. But hey, a 1.4% gain is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
In which asset class was I wrong every single time? Both of the volatility (VIX) trades I did in 2014 lost money, for a total of -1.68%. I got caught in one of many downdrafts that saw volatility hugging the floor for most of the year, giving it to me in the shorts with the (VXX).
All in all, it was a pretty good year.
What was my best trade of 2014? I made 2.75% with a short position in the S&P 500 in July, during one of the market?s periodic 5% corrections.
And my worst trade of 2014? I got hit with a 6.63% speeding ticket with a long position in the same index. But I lived to fight another day.
After a rocky start, 2015 promises to be another great year. That is, provided you ignore my advice on volatility.
Here is a complete list of every trade I closed last year, sorted by asset class, from best to worse.
Mad Day Trader Jim Parker is expecting the first quarter of 2015 to offer plenty of volatility and loads of great trading opportunities. He thinks the scariest moves may already be behind us.
After a ferocious week of decidedly ?RISK OFF? markets, the sweet spots going forward will be of the ?RISK ON? variety. Sector leadership could change daily, with a brutal rotation, depending on whether the price of oil is up, down, or sideways.
The market is paying the price of having pulled forward too much performance from 2015 back into the final month of 2014, when we all watched the December melt up slack jawed.
Jim is a 40-year veteran of the financial markets and has long made a living as an independent trader in the pits at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. He worked his way up from a junior floor runner to advisor to some of the world?s largest hedge funds. We are lucky to have him on our team and gain access to his experience, knowledge and expertise.
Jim uses a dozen proprietary short-term technical and momentum indicators to generate buy and sell signals. Below are his specific views for the new quarter according to each asset class.
Stocks
The S&P 500 (SPY) and NASDAQ have met all of Jim?s short-term downside targets, and a sustainable move up from here is in the cards. But if NASDAQ breaks 4,100 to the downside, all bets are off.
His favorite sector is health care (XLV), which seems immune to all troubles, and may have already seen its low for the year. Jim is also enamored with technology stocks (XLK).
The coming year will be a great one for single stock pickers. Priceline (PCLN) is a great short, dragged down by the weak Euro, where they get much of their business. Ford Motors (F) probably bottomed yesterday, and is a good offsetting long.
Bonds
Jim is not inclined to stand in front of a moving train, so he likes the Treasury bond market (TLT), (TBT). He thinks the 30-year yield could reach an eye popping 2.25%. A break there is worth another 10 basis points. Bonds are getting a strong push from a flight to safety, huge US capital inflows, and an endlessly strong dollar.
Foreign Currencies
A short position in the Euro (FXE), (EUO) is the no brainer here. The problem is one of good new entry points. Real traders always have trouble selling into a free fall. But you might see profit taking as we approach $1.16 in the cash market.
The Aussie (FXA) is being dragged down by the commodity collapse and an indifferent government. The British pound (FXB) is has yet to recover from the erosion of confidence ignited by the Scotland independence vote and has further mud splattered upon it by the weak Euro.
Precious Metals
GOLD (GLD) could be in a good range pivoting off of the recent $1,140 bottom. The gold miners (GDX) present the best opportunity at catching some volatility. The barbarous relic is pulling up the price of silver (SLV) as well. Buy the hard breaks, and then take quick profits. In a deflationary world, there is no long-term trade here. It is a real field of broken dreams.
Energy
Jim is not willing to catch a falling knife in the oil space (USO). He has too few fingers as it is. It has become too difficult to trade, as the algorithms are now in charge, and a lot of gap moves take place in the overnight markets. Don?t bother with fundamentals as they are irrelevant. No one really knows where the bottom in oil is.
Agriculturals
Jim is friendly to the ags (CORN), (SOYB), (DBA), but only on sudden pullbacks. However, there are no new immediate signals here. So he is just going to wait. The next directional guidance will come with the big USDA report at the end of January. The ags are further clouded by a murky international picture, with the collapse of the Russian ruble allowing the rogue nation to undercut prices on the international market.
Volatility
Volatility (VIX), (VXX) is probably going to peak out her soon in the $23-$25 range. The next week or so will tell for sure. A lot hangs on Friday?s December nonfarm payroll report. Every trader out there remembers that the last three visits to this level were all great shorts. However, the next bottom will be higher, probably around the $16 handle.
If you are not already getting Jim?s dynamite Mad Day Trader service, please get yourself the unfair advantage you deserve. Just email Nancy in customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com and ask for the $1,500 a year upgrade to your existing Global Trading Dispatch service.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Volatility-Weekly.jpg325579Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-08 09:44:082015-01-08 09:44:08Mad Day Trader Jim Parker?s Q1, 2015 Views
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
We may request cookies to be set on your device. We use cookies to let us know when you visit our websites, how you interact with us, to enrich your user experience, and to customize your relationship with our website.
Click on the different category headings to find out more. You can also change some of your preferences. Note that blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience on our websites and the services we are able to offer.
Essential Website Cookies
These cookies are strictly necessary to provide you with services available through our website and to use some of its features.
Because these cookies are strictly necessary to deliver the website, refuseing them will have impact how our site functions. You always can block or delete cookies by changing your browser settings and force blocking all cookies on this website. But this will always prompt you to accept/refuse cookies when revisiting our site.
We fully respect if you want to refuse cookies but to avoid asking you again and again kindly allow us to store a cookie for that. You are free to opt out any time or opt in for other cookies to get a better experience. If you refuse cookies we will remove all set cookies in our domain.
We provide you with a list of stored cookies on your computer in our domain so you can check what we stored. Due to security reasons we are not able to show or modify cookies from other domains. You can check these in your browser security settings.
Google Analytics Cookies
These cookies collect information that is used either in aggregate form to help us understand how our website is being used or how effective our marketing campaigns are, or to help us customize our website and application for you in order to enhance your experience.
If you do not want that we track your visist to our site you can disable tracking in your browser here:
Other external services
We also use different external services like Google Webfonts, Google Maps, and external Video providers. Since these providers may collect personal data like your IP address we allow you to block them here. Please be aware that this might heavily reduce the functionality and appearance of our site. Changes will take effect once you reload the page.