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When I was a little kid in the early 1950s, my grandfather used to endlessly rail against Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The WWI veteran, who was mustard gassed in the trenches of France and was a lifetime, died-in-the-wool Republican, said the former president was a dictator and a traitor to his class who trampled the constitution with complete disregard. Candidates Hoover, Landon, and Dewey would have done much better jobs.
What was worse, FDR had run up such enormous debts during the Great Depression that, not only would my life be ruined, so would my children's lives. As a six year old, this disturbed me deeply, as it appeared that just out of diapers, my life was already pointless.
Grandpa continued his ranting until three packs a day of unfiltered Lucky Strikes finally killed him in 1977. He insisted until the day he died that there was no definitive proof that cigarettes caused lung cancer, even though during to war they were referred to as ?coffin nails?.
What my grandfather?s comments did do was spark in me a permanent interest in the government bond market, not only ours, but everyone else?s around the world.
So, whatever happened to the despised, future ending Roosevelt debt? In short, it went to money heaven.
I like to use old movies as examples. Remember, when someone walked into a diner in those old black and white flicks? The prices on the wall menu? said: ?Coffee: 5 cents, Hamburgers: 10 cents, Steak: 50 cents.?
That is where the Roosevelt debt went. By the time the 20 and 30-year Treasury bonds issued in the 1930s came due, WWII, Korea, and Vietnam happened, along with the great inflation that followed.
The purchasing power of the dollar cratered, falling roughly 90%, Coffee was now $1.00, a hamburger $2.00, and a cheap steak at Outback cost $10.00. The government, in effect, only had to pay back 10 cents on the dollar in terms of current purchasing power on whatever it borrowed in the thirties.
Who paid for this free lunch? Bond owners, who received minimal and, often, negative real inflation adjusted returns on fixed income investments for three decades.
In the end, it was the risk avoiders who picked up the tab. This is why bonds were known as ?certificates of confiscation? during the seventies.
This is not a new thing. About 300 years ago, governments figured out there was easy money to be made by issuing paper money, borrowing massively, stimulating the local economy, and then repaying the debt in devalued future currencies.
This is one of the main reasons why we have governments, and why they have grown so big. Unsurprisingly, France was the first, followed by England and every other major country.
Ever wonder how the new, impoverished United States paid for the Revolutionary War? It issued paper money by the bale, which dropped in purchasing power by two thirds by the end of the conflict in 1783. The British helped too by flooding the country with counterfeit paper money.
The really fascinating thing about financial markets so far this year is that I see history repeating itself. Owners of bonds had a great start, but I think the worm has turned.
I agree with bond maven, Geoffrey Gundlach, that bonds peaked in both the US and Europe last week, and that we are eventually heading back to a 2.75%-3.0% yield on the ten-year Treasury bond. Geoffrey has been long bonds until now.
Sell every rally for the rest of the year.
Bondholders can expect to receive a long series of rude awakenings when they get their monthly statements. No wonder Bill Gross, the former head of bond giant, PIMCO, says he expects to get ashes in his stocking for Christmas this year.
The scary thing is that we could be only two years into a new 30-year bear market for bonds that lasts all the way until 2042.
This is certainly what the demographics are saying, which predict an inflationary blow off in decades to come that could take short-term Treasury yields to a nosebleed 12% once more.
That scenario has the leveraged short Treasury bond ETF (TBT), which has recently leapt from $31 to $43, soaring all the way to $200.
If you wonder how yields could get that high in a decade, consider one important fact. The largest buyers of American bonds for the past three decades have been Japan and China. Between them, they have soaked up over $2 trillion worth of our debt, some 12% of the total outstanding.
Unfortunately, both countries have already entered very negative demographic pyramids, which will forestall any future large purchases of foreign bonds. They are going to need the money at home to care for burgeoning populations of old age pensioners.
So, who becomes the buyer of last resort? No one, unless the Federal Reserve comes back with QE IV, V, and VI.
Check out the chart below, and it is clear that the downtrend in long term Treasury bond yields going all the way back to April, 2011 is broken, and that we are now heading substantially up.
The old resistance level at 2.40% will become the new support. That targets a new range for bonds of 2.40%-2.90%, possibly for the rest of 2016.
There is a lesson to be learned today from the demise of the Roosevelt debt. It tells us that the government should be borrowing as much as it can right now with the longest maturity possible at these ultra low interest rates and spending it all.
With inflation at nil, they have a free pass to do so. In effect, it never has to pay it back, but enables us to reap immediate benefits. My friend, Fed Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, certainly thinks so.
If I were king of the world, I would borrow $5 trillion tomorrow and disburse it only in areas that create domestic US jobs. Not a penny would go to new social programs. Long-term capital investments should be the sole target. Here is my shopping list:
$1 trillion ? new Interstate freeway system
$1 trillion ? additional infrastructure repairs and maintenance
$1 trillion ? conversion of our transportation system to natural gas
$1 trillion ? construction of a rural broadband network
$1 trillion ? investment in R&D for everything
The projects above would create 5 million new jobs quickly.
Who would pay for all of this? Today?s investors in government bonds, half of whom are foreigners, principally the Chinese and Japanese.
How did my life turn out? Was it ruined, as my grandfather predicted? Actually, I've done pretty well for myself, as did the rest of my generation, the baby boomers. My kids are doing OK too.
Grandpa was always a better historian than a forecaster. But he did have the last laugh. He made a fortune in real estate, betting correctly on the inflation that always follows borrowing binges.
Grandpa (Right) in 1916 Was a Better Historian than Forecaster
I had the great pleasure of having breakfast the other morning with my long time friend, Mohamed El-Erian, former co-CEO of the bond giant, PIMCO.
Mohamed argues that there has been a major loss of liquidity in the financial markets in recent decades that will eventually come home to haunt us all.
The result will be a structural increase in market volatility, and wild gyrations in the prices of financial assets that will become commonplace.
We have already seen a few of these in recent weeks. German ten-year bund yields jumped from 0.01% to 0.20% in a mere two weeks, a gap once thought unimaginable. The Euro has popped from $1.08 to $1.03.
Since July, we have watched in awe as the ten-year Treasury yield ratcheted up from 1.23% to 2.40%.
The worst is yet to come.
It is a problem that has been evolving for years.
When I started on Wall Street during the early 1980s, the model was very simple. You have a few big brokers servicing millions of small individual customers at fixed, non-negotiable commissions.
The big houses made so much money they could spend some money facilitating counter cycle customers trades. This means they would step up to bid in falling markets, and make offers in rising ones.
In any case, volatility was so low then that this never cost all that much, except on those rare occasions, such as the 1987 crash (we lost $75 million in a day! Ouch!).
Competitive, meaning falling, commissions rates wiped out this business model. There were no longer the profits to subsidize losses on the trading side, so the large firms quit risking their capital to help out customers altogether.
Now you have a larger numbers of brokers selling to a greatly shrunken number of end buyers, as financial assets in the US have become concentrated at the top.
Assets have also become institutionalized as they are piled into big hedge funds, and a handful of big index mutual funds, and ETFs. These assets are managed by people who are also much smarter too.
The small, individual investor on which the industry was originally built has almost become an extinct species.
There is no more ?dumb money? left in the market.
Now those placing large orders are at the complete mercy of the market, often with egregious results.
Enter volatility. Lots of it.
What is particularly disturbing is that the disappearance of liquidity is coming now, just as the 35 year bull market in bonds is ending.
An entire generation of bond fund managers, and almost two generations of investors, have only seen prices rise, save for the occasional hickey that never lasted for more than a few months. They have no idea how to manage risk on the downside whatsoever.
I am willing to bet money that you or your clients have at least some, if not a lot of your/their? money tied up in precisely these funds. All I can say is, ?Watch out below.?
When the flash fire hits the movie theater, you are unlikely to be the one guy who finds the exit.
We're hearing a lot about when the Federal Reserve finally gets around to raising interest rates next month that it will make no difference, as rates are coming off such a low base.
You know what? It may make a difference, possibly a big one.
This is because it will signify a major trend change, the first one for fixed income in more than three decades. That?s all most of these guys really understand are trends, and the next one will have a big fat ?SELL? pasted on it for the fixed income world.
El-Erian has one of the best 90,000-foot views out there. A US citizen with an Egyptian father, he started out life at the old Salomon Smith Barney in London and went on to spend 15 years at the International Monetary Fund.
He joined PIMCO in 1999, and then moved on to manage the Harvard endowment fund. His book, When Markets Collide, was voted by The Economist magazine as the best business book of 2008.
He regularly makes the list of the world?s top thinkers. A lightweight Mohamed is not.
His final piece of advice? Engage in ?constructive paranoia? and structure your portfolio to take advantage of these changes, rather than fall victim to them.
I have never been one to run with the pack.
I'm the guy who eternally marches to a different drummer, not in the next town, but the other hemisphere.
I would never want to join a club that would lower its standards so far that it would invite me as a member.
On those rare times when I do join the lemmings, I am punished severely.
Like everyone and his brother, his fraternity mate, and his long lost cousin, I thought bonds would fall this year and interest rates would rise.
After all, this is normally what you get in the seventh year of an economic recovery. This is usually when corporate America starts to expand capacity and borrow money with both hands, driving rates up.
Although I was wrong on the market direction, Treasury bonds have been one of my top performing asset classes this year. I used every spike in prices to buy (TLT) vertical put spreads $3-$5 in the money, and raked in profits almost every month.
Of course, looking back with laser-sharp 20/20 hindsight, it is so clear why fixed income securities of every description have been on a tear all year.
I will give you ten reasons why bonds won't crash. In fact, they may not reach a 3% yield for at least another five years.
?
1) The Federal Reserve is pushing on a string, attempting to force companies to increase hiring, keeping interest rates at artificially low levels.
My theory on why this isn?t working is that companies have become so efficient, thanks to hyper accelerating technology, that they don?t need humans anymore. They also don?t need to add capacity.
?2) The US Treasury wants low rates to finance America?s massive $19 trillion national debt. Move rates from 0% to 6% and you have an instant financial crisis.
3) With Japan and Europe in a currency price war and a race to the bottom, the world is sending its money to the US to chase higher interest rates. An appreciating greenback which is now at close to a five-year peak is also funneling more money into bonds.
The choices for ten-year government bonds are Japan at 0.4%, Germany at 0.0%,?Switzerland at a negative -0.48% and the US at 1.65%. It all makes our bonds look like a screaming bargain.
4) Since the 2009 peak, the US budget deficit has fallen the fastest in history, down 75% from $1.6 trillion to a mere $400 billion, and lower numbers beckon.
Obama?s tax hikes did a lot to shore up the nation?s balance sheet. A growing economy also throws off a ton more in tax revenues. As a result, the Treasury is issuing far fewer bonds, creating a shortage.
5) This recovery has been led by small ticket auto purchases, not big ticket home purchases. The last real estate crash is still too recent a memory for many traumatized buyers, at least for those few who can get a mortgage. This keeps loan demand weak, and interest rates at subterranean levels.
6) The Fed?s policy of using asset price inflation to spur the economy has been wildly successful. Bonds are included in these assets, and they have benefited the most.
7) New rules imposed by Dodd-Frank force institutional investors to hold much larger amounts of bonds than in the past.
8) The concentration of wealth with the top 1% also generates more bond purchases. It seems that once you become a billionaire, you become ultra conservative and only invest in safe fixed income products.
This is happening globally. For more on this, click here for ?The 1% and the Bond Market?.
9) Inflation? Come again? What?s that? Commodity, energy, precious metal, and food prices are disappearing up their own exhaust pipes. Industrial revolutions produce deflationary centuries, and we have just entered the third one in history (after no. 1, steam, and no. 2, electricity).
10) The psychological effects of the 2008-2009 crash were so frightening that many investors will never recover. That means more bond buying and less buying of all other assets. I can?t tell you how many investment advisors I know who have converted their practices to bond only ones.
Having said all of that, I am selling bonds short once again on the next substantial rally. Call me an ornery, stubborn, stupid old man.
But hey, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn sometimes.
Am I Stubborn or Just Plain Stupid?
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