Global Market Comments
February 9, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FEBRUARY 7 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(LLY), (FXI), (TSM), (BABA), (PLTR), (MSBHF), (SMCI), (JPM), (INDY), (INDA), (TSLA), (BYDDF), (NFLX), (META), (UNG)
Posts
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the February 7 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA.
Q: Have you ever flown an ME-262?
A: There's only nine of the original German jet fighters left from WWII in museums. One hangs from the ceiling in the Deutsches Museum in Munich (click here for the link), I have been there and seen it and it is truly a thing of beauty. You would have to be out of your mind to fly that plane, because the engines only had a 10 hour life. That's because during WWII, the Germans couldn't get titanium to make jet engine blades and used steel instead, and those fell apart almost as soon as they took off. So, of the 1,443 ME-262’s made there’s only nine left. The Allies were so terrified of this plane, which could outfly our own Mustangs by 100 miles per hour, that they burned every one they found. That’s also why there are no Japanese Zeros.
Q: Thoughts on Palantir (PLTR) long term?
A: I love it, it’s a great data and security play. Right now, markets are revaluing all data plays, whatever they are. But it is also overvalued having almost doubled in a week.
Q: What do you make of all these layoffs in Silicon Valley? What does this mean for tech stocks?
A: It means tech stocks go up. The tech stocks for a long time have practiced over-employment. They were growing so fast, they always kept a reserve of about 10% of extra staff so they could be put them to work immediately when the demand came. Now they are switching to a new business model: fire everybody unless you absolutely have to have them right now, and make everybody you have work twice as hard. That greatly increases the profitability of these companies, as we saw with META (META), which had its profits triple—and that seems to be the new Silicon Valley business model. If you're one of the few 100,000 that have been laid off in Silicon Valley, eventually the economy will grow back to where they can absorb you. That's how it's going to play out. In the meantime, go take a vacation somewhere, because you're not going to get any vacations once you get a new job.
Q: I have had shares of Alibaba (BABA) since 2020 and the stock has been in free fall since. Should I take the 80% loss or hold?
A: Well, number one, you need to learn about risk control. Number two, you need to learn about stop losses. I stop out when things go 10% against me; that's a good level. At 80%, you might as well keep the stock. You've already taken the loss and who knows, China may recover someday. It's not recovering now because no foreigners want to invest in China with all the political risk and invasion risk of Taiwan. After all, look at what happened to Russia when they invaded Ukraine—that didn't work out so well for them.
Q: On the Chinese economy (FXI), is the poorer performance due to the decision to move to a war economy? The move in the economic front was described in Xi's speech to the CCP in January of 2023.
A: The real reason, which no one is talking about except me, is the one child policy, which China practiced for 40 years. What it has meant is you now have 40 years of missing consumers that were never born. And there is no solution to that, at least no short-term solution. They're trying to get Chinese people to have more kids now, and you're seeing three and four child families for the first time in 40 years in China. But there is no short-term fix. When you mess with demographics, you mess with economic growth. We warned the Chinese this would happen at the time, and they ignored us. They said if they hadn't done the one child policy, the population of China today would be 1.8 billion instead of 1.2 billion. Well, they’re kind of damned no matter what they do so there was no good solution for them. Of course, threatening to invade your neighbors is never good for attracting foreign investment for sure. Nobody here wants to touch China with a 10-foot pole until there’s a new leader who is more pacifist.
Q: What do you think of Eli Lilly (LLY)?
A: I absolutely love it. If there's a never-ending bull market in fat Americans, which is will go on forever, they're one of two companies that have the cure at $1,000 a month. On the other hand, the stock has tripled in the last 18 months, so it’s kind of late in the game to get in.
Q: Are there any stocks that become an attractive short in the event of a Taiwan invasion, such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)?
A: All stocks become attractive shorts in the event of another war in China. You don't want to be anywhere near stocks and the semis will have the greatest downside beta as they always do. You don't want to be anywhere near bonds either, because the Chinese still own about a trillion dollars’ worth of our bonds. Cash and T-bills suddenly looks great in the event of a third war on top of the two that we already have in Gaza and Ukraine.
Q: What do you think about the prospects of the Japanese stock market now?
A: I think the big move is done; it finally hit a new high after a 34-year wait. The next big move in Japan is when the Yen gets stronger, and that is bad for Japanese stocks, so I would be a little cautious here unless you have some great single name plays like Warren Buffett does with Mitsubishi Corp. (MSBHF). So that's my view on Japan—I'm not chasing it after being out for 34 years. Why return? The companies in the US are better anyway.
Q: What is the deal with Supermicro Computer (SMCI)? It went up 23 times in a year to $669 after not clear $30 for a decade.
A: The answer is artificial intelligence. It is basically creating immense demand for the entire chip ecosystem, including high end servers, which Supermicro makes. It also has the benefit of being a small company with a small float, hence the ballistic move. It was too small to show up on my radar. I’ll catch the next one. There are literally thousands of companies like (SMCI) in Silicon Valley.
Q: Will JP Morgan (JPM) bank shares keep rising, or will they fall when the Fed cuts rates?
A: (JPM) will keep rising because recovering economies create more loan demand, allow wider margins, and cause default rates to go down. It becomes a sort of best case scenario for banks, and JP Morgan is the best of the breed in the banking sector. It also benefits the most from the concentration of the US banking sector, which is on its way from 4,000 banks to 6 with help from the US government.
Q: Is India a good long-term play? Which of the two ETFs I recommend are the better ones?
A: Yes, India is a good long-term play. You buy both iShares India 50 (INDY) and the iShares MSCI India (INDA), which I helped create yonks ago. India is the new China, and the old China is going nowhere. So, yes, India definitely is a play, especially if the dollar starts to weaken.
Q: Do you expect to pull back in your market timing index?
A: Yes, probably this month. Have I ever seen it go sideways at the top for an extended period? No, I haven't. On the other hand, we’ve never had a new thing like artificial intelligence hit the market, nor have we seen five stocks dominate the entire market like we're seeing now. So, there are a lot of unprecedented factors in the market now which no one has ever seen before, therefore they don't know what to do. That is the difficulty.
Q: Does India have an in-country built EV, and what is their favorite EV in India?
A: No, but Tesla (TSLA) is talking about building a factory there. And I would have to say BYD Motors (BYDDF) because they have the world’s cheapest EV’s. There is essentially no car regulation in India except on imports. Car regulation and safety requirements is what keeps the BYDs out of the United States, and it's kept them out for the last 15 years. So that is the issue there.
Q: What do you think about META as a dividend play?
A: I think META will go higher, but like the rest of the AI 5, it is desperately in need of a pull back and a refresh to allow new traders to come in.
Q: Why does Netflix (NFLX) keep going up? I thought streaming was saturated—what gives?
A: Netflix won the streaming wars. They have the best content and the best business strategy; and they banned sharing of passwords, which hit my family big time since it seemed like the whole world was using my Netflix password. And no, I'm not going tell you what my password is. I’ve already paid for Griselda enough times. Seems there is a lot of demand for strong women in my family. Netflix they seem to be enjoying a near monopoly now on profits.
Q: Has the NASDAQ come too far too fast, and does it have more to run?
A: Well it does have more to run, but needs a pull back first. I'm thinking we'll get one this month, but I'm definitely not shorting it in the meantime.
Q: Have you ordered your Tesla (TSLA) Cybertruck?
A: I actually ordered it two years ago and it may be another two year wait; with my luck the order will come through when I'm in Europe and I'll miss it. Some of my friends have already gotten deliveries because they ordered on day one. They love it.
Q: What happened to United States Natural Gas (UNG)?
A: A super cold spell hit the Midwest, froze all the pipes, and nobody could deliver natural gas just when the power companies were screaming for more gas. That created the double in the price which you should have sold into! Usually, people don't need to be told to take a profit when something doubles in 2 weeks, but apparently there are some out there as I've been here getting emails from them. Further confusing matters further is that (UNG) did a 4:1 reverse split right at this time. They have to do this every few years or the 35% a year contango takes the price below $1.00 and shares can’t trade below $1.00 on the New York Stock Exchange.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com , go to MY ACCOUNT, select your subscription (GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, TECHNOLOGY LETTER, or Jacquie's Post), then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 24, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE EV REALITY CHECK)
(TSLA), (RIVN), (TOYOTA)
Sometimes tech trends start and stop and then start again.
It certainly felt that way for the EV industry when the Chairman of Toyota Akio Toyoda threw a damp towel on the progress of EVs taking over the world.
The Japanese Chairman told the world that he thought EVs will never account for more than a third of the market and that consumers should not be forced to buy them.
These ideas definitely go against the grain of the liberal democratic order.
Listen to the bureaucrats in Brussels and the left-wing establishment in Washington and it almost seems as if they want to ban oil and gas products.
Of course, the ban is certainly hyperbole, but the green movement towards lithium battery-powered cars has become quite political and partisan.
Akio Toyoda, chairman of the world’s biggest carmaker by sales, said that electric vehicles (EVs) should not be developed to the exclusion of other technologies such as the hybrid and hydrogen-powered cars that his company has focused on.
He said he believed battery EVs will only secure a maximum of 30% of the market – less than double their current share in the UK – with the remaining 70% taken by fuel cell EVs, hybrids, and hydrogen cars.
Mr. Toyoda argued that electric cars’ appeal is limited because one billion people in the world still live without electricity, while they are also expensive and need charging infrastructure to operate.
The chairman also pointed to Toyota’s recent announcement that it was working on a new combustion engine, saying it was important to give engine factory workers a role in the green transition.
In recent weeks, that strategy has been partially vindicated after Toyota revealed it had produced a record 9.2 million vehicles in 2023 with one month of the year still to go. The annual total is expected to exceed 10m.
At the same time, sales for January to November increased 7% to 10.2 million vehicles.
Koji Sato, the car maker’s chief executive, last year promised Toyota would sell 1.5 million battery EVs a year by 2026, and 3.5 million by 2030.
Tesla, the world’s biggest EV producer on an annual basis, reported 1.8 million deliveries last year.
Mr. Toyoda’s two cents come after electric car sales have slowed in the western world towards the end of 2023.
I am of the notion that in the short term, all the low-hanging fruit has been plucked by the EV buyers.
To find the next incremental buyer, it won’t be impossible, but that same type of excitement won’t exist.
The truth is that many consumers are still tied to the combustible engine.
On a recent trip to Japan, almost no local drove an EV and I witnessed almost no charging points.
If one of the biggest economies in the world isn’t convinced, then there is still a lot of work to do and I don’t believe that the Japanese will give up gas-powered engines so quickly.
In the short term, the demand weakness in EVs bodes ill for EV stocks like Tesla or Rivian.
Throw in the fact that EVs aren’t cheap and the cost of living crisis is forcing consumers to migrate to necessities which unfortunately doesn’t include a brand new Tesla.
Stay away from EV stocks in the short term and pile into the AI narrative.
Global Market Comments
January 16, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or WHAT WILL KILL THIS MARKET)
(MSFT), (BA), (AMZN), (DAL), (V), (PANW), (CCJ), (TLT), (NVDA), (META), (TSLA), (GOOGL)
Global Market Comments
January 12, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JANUARY 10 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A)
(SPY), (UNG), (NVDA), (UUP), (FXA), (GOOG), (GOOGL), (GLD), (GOLD), (WPM), (BYDDY), (F), (GM), (TSLA)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the January 10 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar, broadcast from Silicon Valley, CA.
Q: Would you sell Nvidia (NVDA) covered calls?
A: No, I would not. Nvidia could double at any time, or at least go up 50%. That is not a covered call writing situation, that is a long call situation, or at the very least a long call spread situation. Do not bet against Nvidia on pain of death—one of the seven-stop losses I had last year was a short in Nvidia.
Q: Do you recommend any brokers for executing my trades?
A: Yes, I recommend Tastytrade (click here) because I know the owner of the company, and they have the lightest code in the entire industry. It’s written to go very fast; that gives you a price advantage over other platforms. Plus they have very competitive margin rates and commissions. They only charge commissions on openings, not on closings.
Q: Why are you adding positions when the market timing index is so high? Aren't you supposed to be avoiding risk here?
A: The market timing index in the PowerPoint is for the S&P 500 only. If you look at the individual stocks that I've added in the last two days, they've all had 10-20% corrections. So you don't want to touch the main market up here. If anything it's a short, and I am looking at an S&P 500 (SPY) short, by the way, to hedge our other longs. Individual stocks have already corrected, and I've already started to add positions in the leaders for the year. Big tech is moving up; it’s leading the rally so that is what's happening there.
Q: Is it time to buy Tesla (TSLA)? It's a 200-day moving average.
A: I don't want to touch Tesla until the price war is over. Obviously, it's still continuing and Tesla itself is leading the charge on the price war, so I would hold off on that while the other tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) are so hot.
Q: I bought the UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) LEAPS you put out over the Christmas vacation. They have since doubled in value in two weeks. Should I take profits?
A: Yes. Always take a profit in any option play when you get an immediate return because they have the tendency to give up those returns very quickly. They do call natural gas the “widow maker” in the commodities market because of the extreme volatility. So when you get a 50% move in natural gas or any commodity, take the money and run. Go to Las Vegas for a weekend, take your wife to Hawaii, pay off your kid's student loans, or buy yourself a new Rolex watch! Take the quick profit. You always get a chance to buy again on a dip, and there’s nothing like starting off 2024 with a double on a LEAP. For me, it's a matter of professional pride, not about the money. So way to go, John Thomas.
Q: Has crude oil reached the bottom?
A: $70 per barrel has been holding for a long time, but it's not acting like a bottom. I have to tell you, it's not getting any big dead cat bounces you see at real bottoms. So my guess is we have to move into the 60s, maybe all the way down to $62 before we get a turnaround. We need to see a turnaround in the global economy before we get a turnaround in the price of oil, and especially a turnaround in China, which is the world's largest importer of oil—and there is no sign of that happening anytime soon. So there is your answer; watch China.
Q: Will any Bitcoin ETFs be approved in the US?
A: Probably yes, but that also could mark a top of the market. Remember the insiders, the miners, have a huge trading advantage over us. Which is one reason why I'm avoiding this asset class this time around. I have a feeling we'll peak lower than the last high, and then we go back down into lows again. So avoid Bitcoin. There are too many other better things to buy now like Nvidia. During the last Bitcoin peak, all the techs were insanely expensive, and now they're not. We have better alternatives to crypto than we did two years ago.
Q: With China not improving, do you still like the US dollar to drop and the Australian dollar to increase?
A: I do expect the US dollar (UUP) to fall. I think it's peaked out and already dropped 10%, and I expect the Aussie (FXA) to rise. It's already risen by about 7%, but not because of China. It's happening because the US will cut interest rates anywhere from 3 to 6 times this year. And it could be either; it could be 3 quarter-point rate cuts, or it could be 6. I'm kind of leaning towards 6 myself. Which leads to the next question...
Q: Do you still like bonds?
A: Absolutely, yes. (TLT) is trading around $97 today. I'm looking for it to hit $110 to $120 by the end of the year, plus the interest payments. So the total return on (TLT) bonds will be between 18% and 28% on the year. Most people will take that.
Q: Do you still like uranium?
A: Yes. In fact, just last week, France announced it was building 14 new nuclear power plants. These are the big 1 to 4-megawatt old-style plants on top of their additional programs. So that creates more demand for yellow cake fuel and more demand for uranium, and it is getting a lot of push these days as a green fuel. Which it is—it is non-carbon producing. By the way, look at NuScale (SMR) if you're interested in uranium because they have the newest design that solves all the old nuclear problems. And the stock just had a big selloff because they lost a customer.
Q: Do you still like the banks?
A: Well, all four of the financial LEAPS that I recommended at the bottom of the banking crisis in March are all expiring this month at max profits anywhere over a hundred percent. So yes, I love the banks, but I don't especially like them right here, not on top of 30-35% gains. So wait for a pullback. These would be great candidates for any sell-off going into March; that's when we take another look at these. Oh, and if another bank goes bankrupt so much the better, that creates much better entry points.
Q: What's the best way to trade long-term dollar shorts (UUP)?
A: The answer is through futures contracts through banks, is the cheapest way to do it. You get a leverage of 10 to 100 times depending on the contract. You can do long or short. The dealing expenses are the cheapest, and that's how professionals trade for their own account, is through futures contracts through banks. It's not really an equity play. There are a number of short-dollar ETFs out there, but dealing with expenses wide, tracking errors is big so it is not an efficient way to do it. So, that would be my recommendation on long-term dollar shorts. The other way is to buy the Australian dollar, the (FXA).
Q: How are your stem cell knee injections working, John?
A: Fantastic. It completely cured my arthritis with my stem cell injections in my knees and lower back. And after I got shot in the hip in Ukraine, I had a Stem cell injection there too, and that worked. So the pain is completely gone from that bullet wound I got from the Russians in October. Yes, I'm one of the lucky people where everything stem cell-related seems to work, so I do all of them. Go ahead and try it, it’ll only cost you a thousand dollars or two per injection.
Q: When trading Google, do you use the (GOOGL) or just the (GOOG)?
A: One is the holding company, and one is the operating company for the search business. It's really six of one and half a dozen of the other. Both are liquid. The tracking between the two is almost nil, so I don't bother.
Q: Do you expect a recession or high unemployment this year?
A: No, you never get recessions or high unemployment in election years. And much of the spending that the administration obtained years ago has yet to be spent. You know, the lag time on government spending is in the years and it magically tends to happen the most in election years. Go figure. So after a slowdown in the first quarter, I'm expecting to speed up going into the rest of the year.
Q: How much can gold (GLD) go up this year?
A: At least 20 to 30%. Which means the Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont Mining (NEM) could easily double this year. And what about silver? It should go up even more. Which means a Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) leap at this level should go up 400%. Yes, you've heard it here first, 400% with fairly low risk. And if you want to know how to do that, just search for LEAPS on my website or become a concierge member and you can call me and I'll tell you how to do it. I'll guide your hand on how to do the trade.
Q: Is BYD in China a threat to Tesla (TSLA)?
A: No. BYD Motors (BYDDY) is taking over the low end of the market. Read the least profitable end of the market in China where they actually sell more cars than Tesla including hybrids, but Tesla still leads in EVs, and it's the question of would you rather own a Rolls Royce or a Volkswagen. That is the choice. In China, people buy EVs to show off their wealth, and a BYD car shows off your humility or at least your stinginess. So in some emerging markets where cost is the issue, BYD may take over the market, but they won't make very much money at it. And in other markets where quality is the issue like the US, like China, Tesla will dominate and you may end up with a situation like you have with Apple (APPL). Apple has only a 6% market share in the global cell phone business, but they account for 91% of global profits in the cell phone business, and Tesla could do the same. They could end up making all the money with a lesser market share ceding the bottom end or the money-losing end of the market to BYD, Ford (F), General Motors (GM), or anybody else down there.
Q: What do you think of a (TLT) February $90-$93 vertical bull call debit spread for February?
A: I like it. It’s a little close to the money—I usually try to go out $5 points on the TLT strikes when I'm setting these up. So that's a little aggressive, but you'll end up making more money. My bet is you could make 20% on this call spread right here. So many people are still trying to get into the bond market. They got left out, the move up was so fast since October. The institutional investors that dominate that market are not used to the idea of speed. So yes, I think we're looking at a sideways move before the next leg up.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, TECHNOLOGY LETTER, or JACQUIE'S POST, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last 12 years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Mad Hedge Technology Letter
January 10, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LITHIUM CRATERS)
(TSLA), (NIO), (RIVN), (LCID)
EVs were the darling of tech until the hype ran out.
How do I know this?
The price of lithium has nosedived.
The lack of interest is undermining projects, nixing deals, and triggering a scramble for cash that has put a damper on the EV industry.
If anyone thought that EVs would really move the needle for tech, then think again because tech is over-reliant on AI to save the day in 2024. Throw in the Fed pivot too.
Lithium has dropped by 80% in price since the end of 2022 signaling a dramatic slowdown in the electric vehicle market.
The demand for this product isn’t what it used to be.
Sure, there are those (TSLA) lovers in big coastal cities who can’t get enough of the product, but these types max out at 3 Teslas and sit on them until an upgrade a few years later.
With inflation wreaking havoc in every part of American society, this promises to elongate the refresh cycle for tech products like iPhones and Teslas.
Nickel and cobalt have also tumbled, weighed down by an influx of new production amid concerns that the shift to EVs may not be as smooth and quick as predicted.
It’s a dramatic reversal from the froth of recent years that sent prices soaring and sparked a rush by some of the auto industry’s biggest players to secure future supply.
Chemaf Resources Ltd. last year put itself up for sale after a slump in the cobalt price left it struggling to finish key projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and London-based Horizonte Minerals Plc scaled back work on its Brazilian nickel mine as it searches for funds to complete construction, and announced an emergency $20 million financing late last year.
Building new mines takes years and sometimes decades, and stalled projects can often be hard to restart. And while most crucial battery markets are now in surplus, shortages are already forecast toward the end of the decade as the greening of the economy accelerates.
In the case of lithium — a once-tiny commodity market that has been catapulted into the global spotlight due to its vital role in EV batteries — the extreme boom and bust of the last few years shows the difficulties in trying to forecast future supply-demand balances and prices, for both producers and their investors.
Yet supply charged ahead as demand growth underwhelmed, and the price won’t come back for years.
It’s highly possible that lithium could be in a drought until close to 2030.
Cobalt has lost two-thirds of its value since a recent peak in 2022, with top-two supplier Glencore Plc forced to build stockpiles of the metal.
Nickel tumbled 45% last year, weighed down by a flood of low-cost supply from Indonesia, where new techniques to produce battery-grade material are threatening to completely upend the industry.
Jumping off the EV bandwagon, the consumers aren’t impressed as much, and snagging the next incremental EV buyer has become hard.
The bad is out there for everybody to see such as the annoyance of running out of electricity and not getting those software updates properly.
Consumers are starting to remove those rose-tinted glasses and look at Ev's dark side too.
This explains why Tesla was discounting its vehicles so aggressively because management sensed the lack of desire from new buyers.
Unfortunately, this could be a bust year for Tesla as they give way to software companies to carry the load. Smaller EV firms like Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID) are some that I would avoid. Nio (NIO) is another EV company in free fall. I would say stay away from the EV sector in the short term.
Global Market Comments
January 8, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or HERE IS THE TRADE OF THE YEAR),
(TLT), (TSLA), (BYDDY), (FCX), (TLT) (F), (GLD), (X)