(The Mad June traders & Investors Summit is ON!)
(THE BIGGEST “TELL” IN THE MARKET RIGHT NOW),
(GOOGL), (FRC), (PINS), (WORK), (UBER),
(ADSK), (WDAY), (SNE), (NVDA), (MSFT)
I am constantly looking for “tells” in the market, little nuggets of information that no one else notices, but give me a huge trading advantage.
Well, there is a big one out there right now. The bottom feeders are pouring into San Francisco commercial real estate, taking advantage of valuations that sometimes reach negative numbers. Owners are walking away from buildings, mailing in the keys, and going into default rather than keeping up mortgage payments. What’s worse is refinancing at today’s lofty rates. That’s what you would expect with a 36% vacancy rate.
The message for you traders is loud and clear. You should be picking up the highest quality technology growth stocks on every substantial dip, such as Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and NVIDIA (NVDA). For they all know some things that you don’t. Their businesses are about to triple, if not quadruple over the coming decade thanks to AI. For every abandoned building out there are 200 new AI start-ups taking advantage of today’s bargain basement rates, and ALL of them use the services of the five companies above.
Technology stocks, which now account for an eye-popping 30% of stock market capitalization, will make up more than half of the market within ten years, much of that through stock price appreciation. And they are all racing to lock up the office space with which to do that….now.
San Francisco office rents reached a record pre-pandemic as the continued growth of tech — now turbocharged by nearly $100 billion in new capital raised in a series of initial public offerings — met a severe space crunch.
Asking rents rose to a staggering $84.16 per square foot annually for the newest and highest quality offices in the central business district, and citywide asking rents for such spaces, known as Class A, were up over 9% from the prior year. The citywide office vacancy rate was 5.5% in June, down from 7.4% a year ago.
In addition, local Bay Area home prices could get a turbocharger by the fall, when interest rates are expected to start falling.
San Francisco companies that have gone public continue to grow by leaps and bounds. Pinterest (PINS), Slack (WORK), and Uber (UBER) also signed office leases this year, with room for thousands of new employees.
Tech companies Autodesk (ADSK) and Glassdoor also signed deals at 50 Beale St. in the spring. In a sign of the city’s rapidly changing economy, old-line construction firm Bechtel and Blue Shield, the legacy health insurer, are both moving out of 50 Beale St. Sensor maker Samsara, software firm Workday (WDAY), and Sony’s (SNE) PlayStation video game division also expanded.
Globally, San Francisco has the seventh-highest rents in prime buildings. It’s still behind financial powerhouses Hong Kong, London, New York, Beijing, Tokyo, and New Delhi (San Francisco’s average office rents beat out New York.)
Only a handful of new office projects are being built, and future supply is further constrained by San Francisco’s Proposition M, which limits the amount of office space that can be approved each year. That is creating a steadily worsening structural shortage. Only two large office projects are under construction without tenant commitments.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/san-francisco-skyline.png347520Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2024-06-04 09:02:562024-06-04 10:22:33The Biggest “Tell” in the Market Right Now
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or HOW THE CPI LIED),
(NVDA), (MSFT), (AMZN), (V), (PANW), (CCJ) (AAPL), (TSLA), (GOOGL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (META), (UBER), (UUP)
To understand the unintended consequences of the Fed’s helicopter money to U.S. capitalism, we can put a magnifying glass over Uber’s (UBER) recent takeover attempt of Grubhub (GRUB) as what’s in store for not only the tech sector but the wider public markets.
Zombie companies parade around Europe and Japan because of an era of low interest rates and cozy bank relationships that keep these companies from dying out.
To read more about Allianz Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian’s take on zombie companies – click here.
It’s not a surprise that Japan and Europe are highly unproductive, and innovation ceases to exist when capital is being tied up in marginal companies with management happy to let capital slosh about without adding extra added value.
I get it that the Fed is trying to “save” the wider U.S. economy by bringing out the bazookas and even by buying junk-graded debt which was once seen as heresy.
But what we have now are inferior companies that will never turn a profit masquerading as real companies that would be on life support if not for cheap capital.
In almost every instance, the only winners are the executive management who pillage the system and cash out when they are allowed to sell their stock.
U.S. Representative for Rhode Island David Cicilline hit the nail on the head when he described the fluid situation by focusing on two of the bad apples, saying “Uber is a notoriously predatory company that has long denied its drivers a living wage. Its attempt to acquire Grubhub — which has a history of exploiting local restaurants through deceptive tactics and extortionate fees — marks a new low in pandemic profiteering.”
Uber is a taxi service that undercompensates its highest expense - the driver, and Grubhub delivers restaurant food but rips off the restaurants in doing it.
I defined exorbitant delivery fees as up to 40% which Grubhub is infamous for charging.
Yes, even with predatory practices, they cannot turn a profit.
Now, in this new normal of coronavirus, it would be a miracle to make any operational headway.
Uber’s attempted market grab is a giant red flag.
My guess is that they are doing this in order to jazz up the balance sheet and concoct some ridiculous new metric showing a pathway to growth.
By adding growth to revenue, Uber would be able to preach “growth” even if it’s of bad quality.
I thought the tech market was done looking through to grow by essentially killing off the “WeWork model.”
However, Uber is going for a model that is one notch above that model and repurposing it as something actually meaningful, which of course, it’s not.
They are already in litigious hell regarding driver’s remuneration, and that will not die down and could even destroy Uber.
Uber has in fact ignored California state orders to reclassify its drivers as employees and have appealed the court’s decision.
The New York state government has validated my theory of these fly-by-night delivery outfits being a net negative for business and society.
The New York City Council compared food ordering apps Grubhub and UberEats to blood-sucking parasites this week before passing emergency legislation aimed at helping struggling restaurants lower delivery costs during a precarious time.
During the state of emergency, a new vote passed capping food ordering and delivery app fees at 15% in delivery fees and 5% “other” takeout order fees.
To read more about this decision by the New York City Council – click here.
This was done to give some power back to the restaurants that have been getting fleeced.
The balance sheet shows the whole story with Uber's net loss totaling more than $8.5 billion in 2019 and in February, they reported a net loss of $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter.
Let me remind readers that Grubhub posted a net income loss of $27.7 million for the last reported quarter as well.
As it turned out, Grubhub rejected Uber’s offer believing it didn’t meet their valuation of the company.
It would appear natural that a predatory company with no competitive advantage would set a market premium that would align with their borderline extortionate ways.
Do not own either one of these companies – there are far better ones out there in tech and no need to scrounge at the bottom of the barrel.
Monthly Grubhub bill for Chicago Pizza Boss During the Epidemic
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/grubhub-may15.png502483Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-05-15 10:02:362020-06-15 12:14:38Why Uber Tried to Buy Grubhub
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