Foreign exchange traders are an odd lot. They tend to maintain a laser like focus on specific numbers that are utterly meaningless to us mere mortals, but which have momentous importance to themselves.
Right now, one is hearing the battle cry over the 120/120 targets. Specifically, traders want to take the yen down to Y120 to the US dollar, and the Euro down to $1.20 by the last trading day of 2014.
They may well get their wishes.
Powering the moves is the biggest policy divergence between central banks in a decade. The US Federal is threatening to take interest rates up every other day.
In the meantime, lower interest rates beckon in Europe and Japan as their economies lurch from one disaster to the next, dragging their own currencies down.
Accelerating the move is the gasoline that has been thrown on the economic fires caused by? You guessed it, plunging gasoline prices in the US, which is quickly turning into a massive stimulus program.
Wonder why Wal-Mart (WMT) has suddenly taken off to the races? It?s because their impoverished, gap toothed customers have suddenly received big cash bonuses, thanks to the war for market share among the members of OPEC.
Even a penny drop in the price of petrol adds $1 billion a year in consumer spending. Gas is so cheap that we might even break the $3 level here in high tax California.
Higher interest rates are great for the greenback because they prompt foreign investors to send more money here faster to chase higher returns than available at home.
The sharpest bond market move in history, taking ten year Treasury yields from 1.86% all the way up to 2.38% in four weeks, makes this view even more convincing.
Followers of this letter already know that the currencies have been in deep doo doo all year. That?s why I have been aggressively pushing out Trade Alerts to buy the dollar (UUP) and sell short the Euro (FXE), (EUO) and the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS) for the past six months.
Readers have been laughing all the way to the bank.
The really thrilling part here is that this is only the beginning of a decade long move. My final target for the yen is Y150 and $1.00 for the Euro. This could be the trade that keeps on giving.
There are also important spillover implications for the stock market. It means more money for stocks at higher prices. The S&P 500 at 2,100 by yearend now looks like a chip shot, and we may probe even higher.
So why am I currently lacking any current positions in the currencies in my model trading portfolio? We are now at the end of extreme moves in all asset classes over the past month.
So, while everything looks hunky dory (a street in Yokohama where the cheap geishas used to hang out) in the markets, risk is, in fact, rising.
I have to admit that, being up 42.5% year to date, I have gotten spoiled. I am holding back for the low risk, high return type of entry points for new trades that my readers have become addicted to.
When I see one, you?ll be the first to know. Watch this space.
European Central Bank president Mario Draghi pulled the rug out from under the Euro (FXE), (EUO) this morning, announcing a surprise cut in interest rate and substantially adding to its program of quantitative easing.
The action caused the beleaguered currency to immediately gap down two full cents against the dollar, the ETF hitting a 15 month low of $127.40.
Surprise, that is, to everyone except a handful of strategists, including myself. Apparently, I was one of 4 out of 47 economists polled who saw the move coming, beating on my drum out of the coming collapse of the euro for the past six months.
I put my money where my mouth was, slamming out Trade Alerts to sell the Euro short, and sometimes even running a double position.
Of course, it helps that I just spent two months on the continent splurging at 90% off sales, and afterwards feasting on $10 Big Macs and $20 ice cream cones. Europe was practically begging for a weaker currency. Shorting the Euro against the greenback appeared to be a no-brainer.
A number of key economic indicators conspired to force Draghi?s hand this time around. August Eurozone inflation fell to a feeble 0.3%. France cut its 2014 GDP estimate at the knees, from 1.0% to 0.5%. Unemployment hovers at a gut wrenching 11.5%. To the continent?s leaders it all looked like a deflationary lost decade was unfolding, much like we saw in Japan.
Call the move an hour late, and a dollar short. Or more like 43,800 hours late and $4 trillion short. The US Federal Reserve started its own aggressive quantitative easing five years ago. The fruits of Ben Bernanke?s bold move are only just now being felt.
A major reason for the delay is that having a new currency, Europe lacks the breadth and depth of financial instruments in which it can maneuver. The Euro will soon be approaching its 15th birthday. Uncle Buck has been around since 1782.
The ECB?s move is bold when compared to its recent half hearted efforts to stimulate its economy. Its overnight lending rate has been cut from 0.15% to 0.05%, the lowest in history. Deposit rates have been pushed further into negative territory, from -0.10% to -0.20%. Yes, you have to pay banks to take your money! A QE program will lead to the purchase of 400 billion Euros worth of securities.
Am I selling more Euros here?
Nope.
I covered the last of my shorts last week, after catching the move in the (FXE) from $136 down to $130. That?s a major reason why my model trading portfolio is up a blistering 30% so far this year.
At $127, we are bang on my intermediate downside target. But get me a nice two or three cent short covering rally, and I?ll be back in there in a heartbeat. My next downside targets are $120, $117, and eventually $100. My European vacations are getting cheaper by the day.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Dollar-Certificate-e1409868770980.jpg400305Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-09-05 01:04:162014-09-05 01:04:16A Euro Collapse At Last!
I was amazed to see the Dow Average open up only 60 points this morning, and oil to fall a mere $1.50, given the enormous long term implications of a real nuclear deal with Iran. Over the decades, I have noticed that Wall Street isn?t very good at analyzing international political matters and the implications for their own markets. This appears to be one of those cases.
The news over the weekend about a freeze on Iran?s nuclear enrichment program in exchange for international inspections and the unfreezing of $4 billion of their assets is unbelievably positive for all asset classes, except energy. It came much sooner than expected. It proves that the administration?s preference for economic sanctions over military action has been wildly successful.
The US is now in a tremendously powerful negotiating position. If Iran dumps their nuclear program to our satisfaction it can get the carrot. It will rejoin the world economy, unfreeze the rest of its assets, and recover $100 billion a year in trade. Its oil exports (USO) can recover from 750,000 barrels a day back to the pre crisis level of 3 million barrels. If it doesn?t then it gets the stick again in six months, resuming their economic freefall.
The geopolitical implications for the U.S. are enormous.? Iran is the last major rogue state hostile to the U.S. in the Middle East, and it is teetering. The final domino of the Arab spring falls squarely at the gates of Tehran. A friendly, or at least a non-hostile Iran, means we really don?t care what happens in Syria.
Remember that the first real revolution in the region was Iran?s Green Revolution in 2009. That revolt was successfully suppressed with an iron fist by fanatical and pitiless Revolutionary Guards. The true death toll will never be known, but is thought to be in the thousands. The antigovernment sentiments that provided the spark never went away and they continue to percolate just under the surface.
At the end of the day, the majority of the Persian population wants to join the tide of globalization. They want to buy iPods and blue jeans, communicate freely through their Facebook pages and Twitter accounts, and have the jobs to pay for it all. Since 1979, when the Shah was deposed, a succession of extremist, ultraconservative governments ruled by a religious minority, have abjectly failed to cater to these desires
If Iran doesn?t do a deal on nukes soon, it?s economy with sink deeper into the morass in which they currently find themselves. The Iranian ?street? will figure out that if they spill enough of their own blood that regime change is possible and the revolution there will reignite. The Obama administration is now pulling out all the stops to accelerate the process.
The oil embargo former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, organized is steadily tightening the noose, with heating oil and gasoline becoming hard to obtain. Yes, Russia and China are doing what they can to slow the process, but conducting international trade through the back door is expensive, and prices are rocketing. The unemployment rate is 40%.? The Iranian Rial has collapsed by 50%. Iranian banks were kicked out of the SWIFT international settlements system, a deathblow to their trade.
Let?s see how docile these people remain when the air conditioning quits running this summer because of power shortages. Iran is a rotten piece of fruit ready to fall of its own accord and go splat. The US is doing everything she can to shake the tree. No military action of any kind is required on America?s part. No shot has been fired. That?s a big deal when the shots cost $10,000 apiece.
The geopolitical payoff of such an event for the U.S. would be almost incalculable. A successful revolution will almost certainly produce a secular, pro-Western regime whose first priority will be to rejoin the international community and use its oil wealth to rebuild an economy now in tatters.
Oil will lose its risk premium, now believed by the oil industry to be $30 a barrel. A looming supply could cause prices to drop to as low as $30 a barrel. This would amount to a gigantic $1.66 trillion tax cut for not just the U.S., but the entire global economy as well (87 million barrels a day X 365 days a year X $100 dollars a barrel X 50%). Almost all funding of terrorist organizations will immediately dry up. I might point out here that this has always been the oil industry?s worst nightmare. Hezbollah is a short.
At that point, the US will be without enemies, save for North Korea, and even the Hermit Kingdom could change with a new leader in place. A long Pax Americana will settle over the planet.
The implications for the financial markets will be enormous. The U.S. will reap a peace dividend as large, or larger, than the one we enjoyed after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1992. As you may recall, that black swan caused the Dow Average to soar from 2,000 to 10,000 in less than eight years, also partly fueled by the technology boom.
A collapse in oil imports will cause the U.S. dollar (UUP) to rocket.? An immediate halving of our defense spending to $400 billion or less and burgeoning new tax revenues would cause the budget deficit to collapse. With the U.S. government gone as a major new borrower, interest rates across the yield curve will fall further.
A peace dividend will also cause U.S. GDP growth to reaccelerate from 2% to 4%. Risk assets of every description will soar to multiples of their current levels, including stocks, junk bonds, commodities, precious metals, and food. The Dow will soar to 30,000 and the S&P 500 (SPY) to 3,500, the Euro collapses to parity, gold rockets to $2,300 an ounce, silver flies to $100 an ounce, copper leaps to $6 a pound, and corn recovers $8 a bushel. The 60-year bull market in bonds ends.
Some 1 million of the armed forces will get dumped on the job market as our manpower requirements shrink to peacetime levels. But a strong economy should be able to soak these well-trained and motivated people right up. We will enter a new Golden Age, not just at home, but for civilization as a whole.
Wait, you ask, what if Iran develops an atomic bomb and holds the U.S. at bay? Don?t worry. There is no Iranian nuclear device. There is no real Iranian nuclear program. The entire concept is an invention of Israeli and American intelligence agencies as a means to put pressure on the regime. According to them, Iran has been within a month or producing a tactical nuclear weapon for the last 30 years.
The head of the miniscule effort they have was assassinated by Israeli intelligence two years ago (a magnetic bomb, placed on a moving car, by a team on a motorcycle, nice!).
If Iran had anything substantial in the works, the Israeli planes would have taken off a long time ago. There is no plan to close the Straits of Hormuz, either. The training exercises in small rubber boats we have seen are done for CNN?s benefit, and comprise no credible threat.
I am a firm believer in the wisdom of markets, and that the marketplace becomes aware of major history changing events well before we mere individual mortals do. The Dow began a 25-year bull market the day after American forces defeated the Japanese in the Battle of Midway in May of 1942, even though the true outcome of that confrontation was kept top secret for years.
If the advent of a new, docile Iran were going to lead to a global multi-decade economic boom and the end of history, how would the stock markets behave now? They would rise virtually every day, led by the technology sector (XLK), industrials (XLI), and the banks (XLF) (C), offering no substantial pullbacks for latecomers to get in.
That is exactly what they have been doing since August. The markets are telling us that a treaty of real substance is a done deal.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Iran-Nuclear-Missile.jpg310517Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-11-26 01:04:162013-11-26 01:04:16Here Comes the Next Peace Dividend
I think that oil peaked last week with the Egyptian Army?s ferocious and bloody attack on the Muslim Brotherhood. I hate to sound cynical here, but count the daily bodies in the street, which has been trending down sharply since Thursday?s, 1,000 plus tally. Fewer bodies mean lower oil prices.
This has most likely broken the back of the fundamentalist opposition movement for at least the time being, which has accounted for the $20 spike in oil prices over the last two months.
This returns us to the longer term fundamental trend for oil, which is sideways at best, and down at worst. The US is flooding the world?s oil markets with energy in all its many forms. The driver here is American fracking technology, which will continue to upend the traditional energy markets for decades to come. It?s just a matter of time before fracking goes mainstream in Europe, especially in the big coal countries of Germany, Poland, and England. Then they can thumb their noses at Russia, a major gas supplier over the last thirty years. China will follow.
In a crucial news item that wasn?t reported nationally, the California legislature voted down a measure to ban hydraulic fracturing in their state. It was defeated in a democratically controlled body. As the Golden State is the most anti energy state in the country, this gives the state a flashing green light to move forward against environmentalist opposition. There is a ton more of new supply coming. This is what the weakness in the price of natural gas is telling you (UNG).
We also received a new negative for oil this month, the collapse of the emerging market currencies, stock markets, and bonds, especially the Indian rupee. This reduces their international purchasing power in US dollar terms, thus raising the cost of oil in local currency terms. You see, oil is priced in dollars. As the emerging markets have seen the largest growth in demand for oil in recent years, this can only be bad for prices.
In terms of my own trading portfolio, I want to have a ?RISK OFF? position, like an oil short, to hedge my two existing ?RISK ON? positions in the Euro (FXE) and the yen (FXY) shorts. US stock markets could be weak into September, and they will take oil down with them.
The energy inventory figures released on Wednesday were another tell. Oil came in line with a 1.5 million barrel weekly draw down. But gasoline showed a precipitous 4 million barrel drop in supplies, meaning that more people are driving to their summer vacations than expected. Texas tea should have rallied at least $1 on the news. Instead it fell $1.50. It is an old trading nostrum that if a contract can?t rally on surprisingly positive developments, you sell the daylights out of it. Below, you will find another chart that you should wake up and take notice of, the Powershares DB US Dollar Bullish Index Fund (UUP).Commodities traditionally are weak when the dollar is strong. Both the chart and the fundamentals suggest that we are close to a multiyear low for the greenback and are about to enter a prolonged period of dollar strength.This is also grim tidings for oil.
Finally, there is that last resort, the charts. Check out those for the (USO) and oil and it very much looks like we have a triple top in place. That is the straw that breaks the camel?s back. Time to sell.
The only way I am wrong on my oil call is if the Chinese economy is about to take off like a rocket. They are the marginal big swing player in this market. But there is absolutely no sign of that happening in the economic data. If anything, the collapse in emerging markets suggest that conditions in the Middle Kingdom are about to get worse before they get better.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Camel.jpg406333Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-08-22 12:50:482013-08-22 12:50:48Why I Sold Oil
Any trader will tell you the trend is your friend, and the overwhelming direction for the US dollar for the last 220 years has been down.
Our first Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, found himself constantly embroiled in sex scandals. Take a ten dollar bill out of your wallet and you?re looking at a world class horn dog, a swordsman of the first order. When he wasn?t fighting scandalous accusations in the press and the courts, he spent much of his six years in office orchestrating a rescue of our new currency, the US dollar.
Winning the Revolutionary War bankrupted the young United States, draining it of resources and leaving it with huge debts. Hamilton settled many of these by giving creditors notes exchangeable for then worthless Indian land west of the Appalachians. As soon as the ink was dry on these promissory notes, they traded in the secondary market for as low as 25% of face value, beginning a centuries long government tradition of stiffing its lenders, a practice that continues to this day. My unfortunate ancestors took him up on his offer, the end result being that I am now writing this letter to you from California?and am part Indian.
It all ended in tears for Hamilton, who, misjudging former Vice President Aaron Burr?s intentions in a New Jersey duel, ended up with a bullet in his back that severed his spinal cord. Cheney, eat your heart out.
Since Bloomberg machines weren?t around in 1790, we have to rely on alternative valuation measures for the dollar then, like purchasing power parity, and the value of goods priced in gold. A chart of this data shows an undeniable permanent downtrend, which greatly accelerates after 1933 when FDR banned private ownership of gold and devalued the dollar.
Today, going short the currency of the world?s largest borrower, running the greatest trade and current account deficits in history, with a diminishing long term growth rate is a no brainer. But once it became every hedge fund trader?s free lunch, and positions became so lopsided against the buck, a reversal was inevitable. We seem to be solidly in one of those periodic corrections, which began six month ago, and could continue for months or years.
The euro has its own particular problems, with the cost of a generous social safety net sending EC budget deficits careening. Use this strength in the greenback to scale into core long positions in the currencies of countries that are major commodity exporters, boast rising trade and current account surpluses, and possess small consuming populations. I?m talking about the Canadian dollar (FXC), the Australian dollar (FXA), and the New Zealand dollar (BNZ), all of which will eventually hit parity with the greenback. Think of these as emerging markets where they speak English, best played through the local currencies.
For a sleeper, buy the Chinese Yuan ETF (CYB) for your back book. A major revaluation by the Middle Kingdom is just a matter of time.
I?m sure that if Alexander Hamilton were alive today, he would counsel our modern Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, to talk the dollar up, but to do everything he could to undermine the buck behind the scenes, thus over time depreciating our national debt down to nothing through a stealth devaluation. Given Jack Lew?s performance so far, I?d say he studied his history well. Hamilton must be smiling from the grave.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/10-Dollar-Bill.jpg206483Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-07-08 01:04:222013-07-08 01:04:22The Two Century Dollar Short
When I staggered downstairs at 11:00 PM to check the close for the Tokyo stock market, my eyes just about popped out of my head. Yikes! Down 6.3%! The yen was up another 2% to ?94 against the US dollar as well!! It looked like the world was in for another round of ?RISK OFF? with a turbocharger. Fasten your seatbelts, and pack an extra pair of shorts.
So I called an old friend in Japan who always seems to know what is going on whenever the wheels fall off there. Ed Merner is the CEO of the Atlantis Japan Growth Fund (LSE-AJG), who has long been rated the number one stock picker in the Land of the Rising Sun. Ed?s fund, which trades on the London Stock Exchange, was, at one point, up a gob smacking 53% this year without a stitch of leverage.
When the ink was barely dry on the US Japan peace treaty in 1950, Ed?s father uprooted his family from the rural High Sierra hamlet of Truckee, California, and moved them to Tokyo. That gave him a front row seat to the economic miracle that followed in the fifties and sixties.
Ed started managing money just a few years before me, in 1970. He toiled away as a portfolio manager at Schroeder?s & Co. in Tokyo for 25 years and then launched his own firm in 1995. Ed, who is a fascinating individual and a genuine nice guy, is the man I always turn to for my long-term view on Japan. Suffice it to say, Ed knows which end of a piece of sushi to hold upward, and is said to be able to snatch a fly midair with a pair of chopsticks. His Japanese is flawless, and he is now regarded as a local celebrity.
Ed says that the ?Rebirth of Japan? story is anything but over, and in fact, is just getting started. He thinks that the Nikkei index could soar from the current ?12,445 to above the 1989 all time high of ?39,000 in years to come. What we are seeing now is a long overdue rest for the world?s best performing major stock market. Bank of Japan mouthing?s of empty platitudes, rather than concrete action is what triggered the current rout.
Much of the money that went into Japan this year was of the hot, algorithm driven variety. You saw this in the dominance of the index names in trading, like Sony (SNE), Toyota (TM), and Honda Motors (HMC). Individual stock picking almost ceased to exist as an investment strategy. When the same hedge funds all tried to unwind their Japanese stock longs and yen shorts at the same time, you got the predictable flash fire in the movie theater. Margin calls became the order of the day.
As the index money leaves in this correction, it will be replaced by more traditional mutual fund and individual investors, who have a more stable orientation. Stock selection will become more fundamentally driven. That?s when Japan transitions from the flavor of the day to a serious core investment.
Now is about the time you should expect that to happen. Japan?s upper House of Councilors election will take place on July 21, and Prime Minister Abe?s ruling Liberal Democratic Party will win by a landslide. After that, you can expand Abe?s plans for an overdue major restructuring of the economy to mature from idle speculation to specific proposals. That is what the market wants to hear. Until then, he is loath to ruffle political feathers. He is going to have to break a lot of eggs to make this omelet.
On the table in his ?Third Arrow? plan are deregulation of virtually all financial markets, modernization of the health care system, immigration reform to open the way for more foreign workers, and rationalization of a bloated government bureaucracy. International trade will get streamlined and capital investment incentivized. More infrastructure spending will be aimed at maintenance and repair, so there will be no more ?bridges to nowhere.?
Oh, and he wants to enable the national pension fund system to step up its purchases of Japanese stocks. Abe wants to compress all of the deregulation that the US has enacted in the past 30 years into the next three.
The truly encouraging thing here is that Abe?s early actions are already bearing fruit. ?Arrows? 1 and 2 put the country on track to double its money supply in two years and paved the way for a staggering $150 billion in new public works spending. The crash in the yen this prompted is causing corporate earnings to go through the roof. Those results will be reported in the fall.
Then, the best company performance in two decades and a national reorganization plan on the scale of Roosevelt?s New Deal will be the impetus for the next leg up in the Great Japanese Bull Market of the 2010?s. That is why I banged out Trade Alerts on Wednesday to buy Japanese stocks through the Wisdom Tree Japan Hedge Equity ETF (DXJ) and sell short the yen through the Currency Shares Japan Yen Trust ETF (FXY) and the Proshares Ultra Short Yen ETF (YCS).
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Asian-Maids1.jpg180479Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-14 07:51:522013-06-14 07:51:52The Yen Carry Trade Blow Up
The big surprise today was not that the Federal Reserve launched QE3, but the extent of it. ?For a start, they moved the ?low interest rate? target out to mid-2015. ?They left the commitment to bond-buying open-ended. ?The first-year commitment came in at $480 billion, in-line with previous efforts.
Reading the statement from the Open Market Committee, you can?t imagine a more aggressive posture to stimulate the economy. ?You have to wonder how bad the data that we haven?t seen yet is, not just here, but in Europe and Asia as well. The big question now is: ?Will it make any difference??
Asset markets certainly bought the ?RISK ON? story hook, line, and sinker in the wake of the Fed action. ?Gold leapt $30, the Dow soared 200 points, the dollar (UUP) was crushed, the Australian dollar (FXA) rocketed a full penny (ouch!), and junk bonds (HYG) caught a new bid at all-time highs. ?The real puzzler was the Treasury bond market, which saw the (TLT) fall 2 ? points. ?I guess this is because the new Fed buying will be focused on mortgage-backed securities at the expense of Treasuries.
I knew that if they were to do anything, it would be aimed at the residential real estate market, which has been a thorn in their side for the last five years. ?The reason we have 1.5% growth instead of 3% is real estate. Real estate is the missing 1.5%.
But what will be the impact? ?Some $480 billion of buying of mortgage-backed securities over the next 12 months will lower the 30 year conventional mortgage from the current 3.70%. ?But all that will do is enable those who refinanced for the last two years in a row to do so a third time. Those who are underwater on their mortgages and have only negative equity to offer banks as collateral will remain shut out. ?This will generate a big payday for mortgage brokers, but won?t trigger any net new home-buying which the economy desperately needs.
The harsh reality for the housing market is that the demographic headwind of downsizing baby boomers is so ferocious that the Fed is unable to piss against it. Here is the problem:
*80 million baby boomers are trying to sell houses to 65 million Gen Xer?s who earn half as much
*6 million homes are late or in default on payments
*An additional shadow inventory of 15 million units overhangs the market owned by frustrated sellers
*Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in receivership, which account for? 95% of US home mortgages.? Each needs $100 billion in new capital. Good luck getting that out of a deadlocked congress
*The home mortgage deduction a big target in any tax revamp. The government would gain $250 billion in revenues in such a move
*The best case scenario for real estate is that we bump along a bottom for 5 years. The worst case is that we go down another 20% when a recession hits in 2013.
It could be that 95% of the new QE3 is already in the market, and that the markets will roll over once the initial headlines and ?feel good? factor wears off. ?With the markets discounting this action for nearly four months, this could be one of the greatest ?buy the rumor, sell the news? opportunities of all time.
Whatever the case, I am not inclined to chase risk assets up here. Anyway, I am now so far ahead of my performance benchmarks for the year that I can?t even see them on a clear day.
The abject failure of the equity indexes to breach even the first line of upside resistance does not bode well for the ?RISK ON? trade at all. Only a week ago I predicted that the markets would be challenged to top 1,340 in the (SPX) and $78 for the Russell 2000 (IWM). In fact, we made it up only to 1,335 and $77.90 respectively.
To see the melt down resume ahead of the month end window dressing is particularly concerning. That?s the one day a month that investors really try to pretend that everything is alright. People just can?t wait to sell.
Blame Europe again, which saw Spanish bond yields reach a 6.6% yield on the ten year and the Italian bond market roll over like the ?Roma? (a WWII battleship sunk by the Germans while trying to surrender to the Allies). Facebook didn?t help, knocking another $8 billion off its market capitalization, further souring sentiment.
Urging traders to head for the exits was confirming weakness across the entire asset class universe. The Euro is in free fall. Copper took a dive. Oil is plumbing new 2012 lows. Treasury bond prices rocketed, taking ten year yields to new all-time lows at 1.65%. It all adds up to a big giant ?SELL!?
It is just a matter of days before we revisit the (SPX) 200 day moving average at 1,280. Thereafter, the big Fibonacci level at 1,250 kicks in. It is also exactly one half the move off of the October 2011 low, and unchanged on the year for 2012.
I am not looking for a major crash here a la 2011. There is just not enough leverage and hot long positions in the system to take us down to 1,060. It will be a case of thrice burned, four times warned. And remember, last year?s 1,060 is this year?s 1,100, thanks to the earnings growth we have seen since then. With 56% of all S&P 500 stocks now yielding more than the ten year Treasury bond, you don?t want to be as aggressive on the short side as in past years, when bond yields were 4 or higher.
By adding on a short in the (SPY) here, I am also hedging my ?RISK ON? exposure in the deep in-the-money call spreads in (AAPL), (HPQ), and (JPM), and my (FXY) puts. The delta on these out-of-the-money?s are so low that I can hedge the lot with one small 5% position in the at-the-money (SPY) puts.
If the (SPX) hits 1,280, the (SPY) puts will add 2.25% to our year to date performance. At 1,250 we pick up 4.00% and at 1,200 we earn 7.00%. I now have the option to come out at any of these points if the opportunity presents itself, depending on how the rapidly changing global macro situation unfolds. If we get another pop from here back up to the 1,340-1,360 range, I will double up the position and swing for the fences. There?s no way we are taking a run at new highs for the year from here.
Below, find today?s charts from my friends at www.StockCharts.com with appropriate support and resistance levels outlined. If I may make another observation, when you see the technicals work as well as they have done recently, it is only because the real long term end investors have fled. There are not enough cash flows in the market to overwhelm even the nearest pivot points. That leaves hedge fund, day, and high frequency traders to key off of the obvious turning points in the market. That also is not good for the rest of us.
It?s a good thing that I?m not greedy. If I had sold short a near money call spread for the (TLT) on May 23, I would be in a world of hurt right now. Instead, I went six point out of the money. So when we get dramatic moves like we saw today that take bond yields to all-time lows, I can just sit back and say, ?Isn?t that interesting.? This spread expired in six trading days, which should be enough time to digest the big move today and expire safely out of the money and worthless. What?s better, I can then renew the trade at better strikes after expiration into the July?s and take in more money.
If you are wondering why I am not doubling up on the short Treasury bond ETF (TBT) down here, it?s because it doesn?t have enough leverage. In these conditions you need to go for instruments that can generate immediate and large profits, such as through the options market. The topping process for the Treasury market could go on for another month or two. Until that ends, I am happy to use price spikes like today?s to sell short limited risk (TLT) call spreads 6-8 points out of the money, which can handle a 20 basis point drop in yields and still make you money.
If you own the (TBT) and are willing to take a multi month view, you should be doubling up here. This ETF will have its day in the sun, it is just not today. We could see the $20 handle again and maybe even $30 within the next year. That makes it a potential ten bagger off of today?s close.
I don?t want to touch gold (GLD) or silver here. The barbarous relic is clearly trying to base at $1,500 an ounce. If it fails, it will probably only go down to only $1,450 before major Asian central bank buying kicks in. Better to admire it from afar, or limit your activity to early Christmas shopping for your significant other. We are months away from the next major rally in the yellow metal.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/300px-Italian_battleship_Roma_1940_starboard_bow_view.jpg164300DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-05-30 23:02:052012-05-30 23:02:05My Tactical View of the Market
All eyes will be focused on the weekly jobless claims to be released by the Department of Labor at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday.
You may recall that investors did not exactly run the last two weekly reports up the flagpole and salute them, which showed sharp increases in unemployment claims. At this point the bulls are being comfortably complacent, blaming the bad numbers on? ?random noise? and short term statistical anomalies. This was the final data series to turn negative, and the last of a recent plethora of downshifting economic reports.
Get two more high or higher jobless numbers, and the four week moving average will turn up. That will be enough to set the cat among the equity holding pigeons, and turn a modest 5% correction into a much scarier one that is 15% or greater. All of a sudden it is d?j? vu all over again, with 2012 turning into a carbon copy of 2011, 2010, and 2009, and a big summer sell off in the cards.
I have been warning about the likelihood of such a development all year. After every company in the US hired one person, they again slammed on the brakes and quit returning e-mails. Corporate management these days are playing defense, and don?t see any increase in consumer spending as sustainable. Why add overhead in front of the next slowdown? There are also not a lot of companies that want to expand the workforce going into the summer, which normally sees a seasonal slowdown.
This sudden downgrade of one of the most important data streams is occurring just as a whole flock of black swans are getting clearance for landing. The French elections are signaling that we have at least two more weeks of ?RISK OFF? on the table until the run off on May 6, and possibly much more. Last night, the HSBC Chinese purchasing managers index came in at 49.1 for April, below the crucial boom/bust level of 50 for a sixth month. That means a Chinese hard landing is still on the table, although I think that it is unlikely.
The timing of all this couldn?t be worse, or better, if you happen to be short, as I am. The charts for virtually every risk asset, from Apple (AAPL), to the (SPX), (IWM), (USO), (CU), (FXY), (FXE), (GLD), and (SLV), are either showing textbook head and shoulder tops, or are already in clear down trends. I include an ample sampling below.
Anyone who believes that the ?RISK ON/RISK OFF? model is dead works in a profession where they can be consistently wrong and still stay in business, like in journalism. Give it two more weeks, and expect the media to start wringing hands about ?double dip? or ?triple dip? recession. Last year risk assets peaked on April 29. This year, April 29 came early, on April 2.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/BlackSwan-Copy2-1.jpg399400DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-04-23 23:04:092012-04-23 23:04:09The Next Two Weekly Jobless Figures Are Crucial
The Bank of Japan renewed its membership in the international quantitative easing club last week, announcing that it was substantially expanding its bond repurchases.
Specifically, it will increase them from ?55 trillion to ?65 trillion, a jump equivalent to $830 billion. To understand how big this is, consider that Japan?s GDP is one third the size of the US. That would be the same as the Federal Reserve announcing a repo program with $2.5 trillion here. Imagine what your asset prices would do if that happened.
For good measure, the Japanese also announced an inflation target of 1%, which is entirely wishful thinking for a country that is entering its 23rd year of deflation. It?s like a man on skid row planning on how to spend his prospective lottery winnings.
The government was prompted to action by the 2011 full year GDP figure, which came in at an appalling -0.9%, compared to a robust growth of 4.5% in 2010. The tsunami reconstruction program has fallen woefully behind schedule due to extreme mismanagement and incompetence by the authorities, despite being more than adequately funded. But after watching the Land of the Rising Sun for the last 20 years, I have come to expect incompetence. Slowdowns in Europe and China, plus the Thai floods and the Fukushima nuclear meltdown have provided additional headwinds.
The immediate impact was to trigger a sharp selloff in the yen, delivering an immediate windfall to readers of my Trade Alert Service who were already long yen puts. Traders like myself are always looking for confirming cross market correlations.? You can find one in the movement of the Nikkei stock average, which has been the world?s most despised asset class for the last two decades.
As you can see from the chart below, it is threatening an important multi month breakout to the upside. The reasons for this are simple. A cheaper yen makes Japanese exports more competitive. It also makes the foreign earnings of Japanese multinationals more valuable when translated back into yen. Look no further than the chart of Toyota Motors (TM), which have leapt by a blistering 30% this year.
If you are still unsure about the integrity of the yen collapse, check out the chart for the long dollar basket (UUP). It is setting up for a multiyear head and shoulders breakout to the upside. Uncle Buck has recently taken a steroid shot from the continuing weakness in Europe and the new recession in Japan.
Bottom line: keep selling the yen on rallies, possibly for the next several years.
Those Steroid shots are Definitely Helping Uncle Buck
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00DougDhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngDougD2012-02-20 23:03:112012-02-20 23:03:11Nikkei Shows the Yen Move is Real
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The Best Stimulus Program Ever
