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April 24, 2018
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Global Market Comments
April 23, 2018
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(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or HERE COMES THE FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE APOCALYPSE),
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Global Market Comments
April 19, 2018
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(DIVING BACK INTO THE VIX),
(VIX), (VXX), (SPX),
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Global Market Comments
April 16, 2018
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(THE MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE WEEK THAT NOTHING HAPPENED),
(TLT), (GLD), (SPY), (QQQ), (USO), (UUP),
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(HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, APRIL 20 OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (TLT), (VXX), (GOOGL), (JPM)
Global Market Comments
April 11, 2018
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April 9, 2018
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(HOW TO "SNOWBALL" YOUR FORTUNE WITH BENJAMIN FRANKLIN)
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April 6, 2018
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With the stock market falling for the next few weeks, or even months, it?s time to rehash how to profit from falling markets one more time.
There is nothing worse than closing the barn door after the horses have bolted.
No doubt, you will receive a wealth of short selling and hedging ideas from your other research sources and the media at the next market bottom. That is always how it seems to play out.
So I am going to get you out ahead of the curve, putting you through a refresher course on how to best trade falling markets now, while stock markets are still only 3% short of an all time high, and unchanged on the year.
Market?s could be down 10% by the time this is all over.
THAT IS MY LINE IN THE SAND!
There is nothing worse than fumbling around in the dark looking for the matches after a storm has knocked the power out.
I?m not saying that you should sell short the market right here. But there will come a time when you will need to do so. Watch my Trade Alerts for the best market timing. So here are the best ways to profit from declining stock prices, broken down by security type:
Bear ETFs
Of course the granddaddy of them all is the ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund (SH), a non leveraged bear ETF that is supposed to match the fall in the S&P 500 point for point on the downside. Hence, a 10% decline in the (SPY) is supposed to generate a 10% gain the in the (SH).
In actual practice, it doesn?t work out like that. The ETF has to pay management operating fees and expenses, which can be substantial. After all, nobody works for free.
There is also the ?cost of carry,? whereby owners have to pay the price for borrowing and selling short shares. They are also liable for paying the quarterly dividends for the shares they have borrowed, around 2% a year. And then you have to pay the commissions and spread for buying the ETF.
Still individuals can protect themselves from downside exposure in their core portfolios through buying the (SH) against it (click here for the prospectus: http://www.proshares.com/funds/sh.html). Short selling is not cheap. But it?s better than watching your gains of the last seven years go up in smoke.
Virtually all equity indexes now have bear ETF?s. Some of the favorites include the (PSQ), a short Play on the NASDAQ (click here for the prospectus: http://www.proshares.com/funds/psq.html), and the (DOG), which profits from a plunging Dow Average (click here for the prospectus: http://www.proshares.com/funds/dog_index.html).
My favorite is the (RWM) a short play on the Russell 2000, which falls 1.5X faster than the big cap indexes in bear markets (click here for the prospectus: http://www.proshares.com/funds/rwm.html).
Leveraged Bear ETFs
My favorite is the ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS), a 2X leveraged ETF (click here for the? prospectus: http://www.proshares.com/funds/sds.html). A 10% decline in the (SPY) generates a 20% profit, maybe.
Keep in mind that by shorting double the market, you are liable for double the cost of shorting, which can total 5% a year or more. This shows up over time in the tracking error against the underlying index. Therefore, you should date, not marry, this ETF or you might be disappointed.
3X Leveraged Bear ETFs
The 3X bear ETFs, like the UltraPro Short S&P 500 (SPXU), are to be avoided like the plague (click here for the prospectus: http://www.proshares.com/funds/spxu.html).
First, you have to be pretty good to cover the 8% cost of carry embedded in this fund. They also reset the amount of index they are short at the end of each day, creating an enormous tracking error.
Eventually, they all go to zero, and have to be periodically redenominated to keep from doing so. Dealing spreads can be very wide, further added to costs.
Yes, I know the charts can be tempting. Leave these for the professional hedge fund intra day traders they are meant for.
Buying Put Options
For a small amount of capital, you can buy a ton of downside protection. For example, the April (SPY) $182 puts I bought for $4,872 allowed me to sell short $145,600 worth of large cap stocks at $182 (8 X 100 X $6.09).
Go for distant maturities out several months to minimize time decay and damp down daily price volatility. Your market timing better be good with these, because when the market goes against you, put options can go poof, and disappear pretty quickly.
That?s why you read this newsletter.
Selling Call Options
One of the lowest risk ways to coin it in a market heading south is to engage in ?buy writes?. This involves selling short call options against stock you already own, but may not want to sell for tax or other reasons.
If the market goes sideways, or falls, and the options expire worthless, then the average cost of your shares is effectively lowered. If the shares rise substantially they get called away, but at a higher price, so you make more money. Then you just buy them back on the next dip. It is a win-win-win.
I?ll give you a concrete example. Let?s say you own 100 shares of Apple (AAPL), which closed on Friday at $95.13, worth $9,513. If you sell short 1 July, 2016 $100 call at $1.30 against them, you take in $130 in premium income ($1.30 X 100 because one call option contract is exercisable into 100 shares).
If Apple close2 below $100 on the July 15, 2016 expiration date, the options expire worthless and you keep your stock and the premium. You are then free to repeat the strategy for the following month. If (AAPL) closes anywhere above $100 and your shares get called away, you still make money on the trade.
Selling Futures
This is what the pros do, as futures contracts trade on countless exchanges around the world for every conceivable stock index or commodity. It is easy to hedge out all of the risk for an entire portfolio of shares by simply selling short futures contracts for a stock index.
For example, let?s say you have a portfolio of predominantly large cap stocks worth $100,000. If you sell short 1 June, 2016 contract for the S&P 500 against it, you will eliminate most of the potential losses for your portfolio in a falling market.
The margin requirement for one contract is only $5,000. However if you are short the futures and the market rises, then you have a big problem, and the losses can prove ruinous.
But most individuals are not set up to trade futures. The educational, financial, and disclosure requirements are beyond mom and pop investing for their retirement fund.
Most 401ks and IRAs don?t permit the inclusion of futures contracts. Only 25% of the readers of this letter trade the futures market. Regulators do whatever they can to keep the uninitiated and untrained away from this instrument.
That said, get the futures markets right, and it is the quickest way to make a fortune, if your market direc
tion is correct.
Buying Volatility
Volatility (VIX) is a mathematical construct derived from how much the S&P 500 moves over the next 30 days. You can gain exposure to it through buying the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX), or buying call and put options on the (VIX) itself.
If markets fall, volatility rises, and if markets rise, then volatility falls. You can therefore protect a stock portfolio from losses through buying the (VIX).
I have written endlessly about the (VIX) and its implications over the years. For my latest in-depth piece with all the bells and whistles, please read ?Buy Flood Insurance With the (VXX)? by clicking here.
Selling Short IPO?s
Another way to make money in a down market is to sell short recent initial public offerings. These tend to go down much faster than the main market. That?s because many are held by hot hands, known as ?flippers,? and don?t have a broad institutional shareholder base.
Many of the recent ones don?t make money and are based on an, as yet, unproven business model. These are the ones that take the biggest hits.
Individual IPO stocks can be tough to follow to sell short. But one ETF has done the heavy lifting for you. This is the Renaissance IPO ETF (click here for the prospectus: http://www.renaissancecapital.com/ipoinvesting/ipoetf/ipoetf.aspx).
Buying Momentum
This is another mathematical creation based on the number of rising days over falling days. Rising markets bring increasing momentum, while falling markets produce falling momentum.
So selling short momentum produces additional protection during the early stages of a bear market. Blackrock has issued a tailor made ETF to capture just this kind of move through its iShares MSCI Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM). To learn more, please read the prospectus by clicking here: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/251614/MTUM.
Buying Beta
Beta, or the magnitude of share price movements, also declines in down markets. So selling short beta provides yet another form of indirect insurance. The PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta Portfolio ETF (SPHB) is another niche product that captures this relationship.
The Index is compiled, maintained and calculated by Standard & Poor's and consists of the 100 stocks from the (SPX) with the highest sensitivity to market movements, or beta, over the past 12 months.
The Fund and the Index are?rebalanced and reconstituted quarterly in?February, May, August and November. To learn more, read the prospectus by clicking here:? https://www.invesco.com/portal/site/us/financial-professional/etfs/product-detail?productId=SPHB.
Buying Bearish Hedge Funds
Another subsector that does well in plunging markets are publicly listed bearish hedge funds. There are a couple of these that are publicly listed and have already started to move.
One is the Advisor Shares Active Bear ETF (HDGE) (click here for the prospectus: http://www.advisorshares.com/fund/hdge). Keep in mind that this is an actively managed fund, not an index or mathematical relationship, so the volatility could be large.
Oops, Forgot to Hedge
I am one of those cheapskates who buys Christmas ornaments by the bucket load from Costco in January for ten cents on the dollar because my eleven month return on capital comes close to 1,000%.
I also like buying flood insurance in the middle of the summer when the forecast here in California is for endless days of sunshine.
That is what we are facing now with the volatility index (VIX) where premiums have been hugging the 12%-14%% range recently. Get this one right, and the profits you can realize are spectacular.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 stock index, which has been melting since the ?RISK OFF? died a horrible death.
You may know of this from the talking heads, beginners, and newbies who call this the ?Fear Index?. Long-term followers of my Trade Alert Service profited handsomely after I urged them to sell short this index at the heady altitude of 47.
For those of you who have a PhD in higher mathematics from MIT, the (VIX) is simply a weighted blend of prices for a range of options on the S&P 500 index. The formula uses a kernel-smoothed estimator that takes as inputs the current market prices for all out-of-the-money calls and puts for the front month and second month expirations.
The (VIX) is the square root of the par variance swap rate for a 30 day term initiated today. To get into the pricing of the individual options, please go look up your handy dandy and ever useful Black-Scholes equation. You will recall that this is the equation that derives from the Brownian motion of heat transference in metals. Got all that?
For the rest of you who do not possess a PhD in higher mathematics from MIT, and maybe scored a 450 on your math SAT test, or who don?t know what an SAT test is, this is what you need to know. When the market goes up, the (VIX) goes down. When the market goes down, the (VIX) goes up. End of story. Class dismissed.
The (VIX) is expressed in terms of the annualized movement in the S&P 500, which today is at 1,800. So a (VIX) of $14 means that the market expects the index to move 4.0%, or 72 S&P 500 points, over the next 30 days. You get this by calculating $14/3.46 = 4.0%, where the square root of 12 months is 3.46.
The volatility index doesn?t really care which way the stock index moves. If the S&P 500 moves more than the projected 4.0%, you make a profit on your long (VIX) positions.
Probability statistics suggest that there is a 68% chance (one standard deviation) that the next monthly market move will stay within the 4.0% range. I am going into this detail because I always get a million questions whenever I raise this subject with volatility-deprived investors.
It gets better. Futures contracts began trading on the (VIX) in 2004, and options on the futures since 2006. Since then, these instruments have provided a vital means through which hedge funds control risk in their portfolios, thus providing the ?hedge? in hedge fund.
But wait, there?s more. Now, erase the blackboard and start all over. Why should you care? If you buy the (VIX) here at $14, you are picking up a derivative at a nice oversold level. Only prolonged, ?buy and hold? bull markets see volatility stay under $14 for any appreciable amount of time.
If you are a trader you can buy the (VIX) somewhere under $14 and expect an easy double sometime in the coming months. If we get another 10% correction somewhere along that way, that would do it.
If you are a long-term investor, pick up some (VIX) for downside protection of your long-term core holdings. A bet that euphoria doesn?t go on forever and that someday something bad will happen somewhere in the world seems like a good idea here.
If you don?t want to buy the (VIX) futures or options outright, then you can always buy the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX). Easier still is the (UVXY), which is particularly useful for trading narrow ranges like the one we have had.
If you lose money on this trade, it will only be because you have made a fortune on everything else you made. No one who buys fire insurance ever complains when their house doesn?t burn down.
It is often said that the stock market has discounted 12 out of the last four recessions.
While the market is discounting another recession now, I believe it is one of the many previously forecast that will never happen, a lot like to 18% swoon in the futures markets we saw last summer.
If anything, the reported hard data are showing that the economy is strengthening now, not weakening. The December nonfarm payroll hit a one-year high at 292,000. Christmas sales were off the charts for online merchants.
Auto production topped an 18 million rate. And this is an industry that was bankrupt only seven years ago.
But what else would you expect from a global economy that just has a $2 trillion annual tax cut dumped in its lap, thanks to lower energy prices.
I therefore think we are within days of the final capitulation of this move. That means the Volatility Index (VIX) will peak as well, probably around $30, the top that defined the top of every spike for all of 2015, except for the August 24 flash crash day. That apex is probably only days away.
I am one of those cheapskates who buys Christmas ornaments by the bucket load from Costco in January for ten cents on the dollar, because my eleven month theoretical return on capital comes close to 1,000%.
I also like buying flood insurance in the middle of the summer when the forecast here in California is for endless days of sunshine.
That is what we are facing now with the volatility index (VIX) where premiums have just doubled, from $15 to near $30. Get this one right, and the profits you can realize are spectacular.
Watch carefully for other confirming trends to affirm this trade is unfolding. Those would include a strong dollar, collapsing stocks, and oil in free fall, and a weak Japanese yen, Euro.
I don?t know about you, but I am seeing seven out of seven cross asset confirming price action.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 stock index, which has been rallying hard since oil began its precipitous slide three weeks ago.
You may know of this from the many clueless talking heads, beginners, and newbies who call this the ?Fear Index?. Long-term followers of my Trade Alert Service profited handsomely after I urged them to sell short this index three years ago with the heady altitude of 47%.
For those of you who have a PhD in higher mathematics from MIT, the (VIX) is simply a weighted blend of prices for a range of options on the S&P 500 index. The formula uses a kernel-smoothed estimator that takes as inputs the current market prices for all out-of-the-money calls and puts for the front month and second month expiration's.
The (VIX) is the square root of the par variance swap rate for a 30 day term initiated today. To get into the pricing of the individual options, please go look up your handy dandy and ever useful Black-Scholes equation. You will recall that this is the equation that derives from the Brownian motion of heat transference in metals. Got all that?
For the rest of you who do not possess a PhD in higher mathematics from MIT, and maybe scored a 450 on your math SAT test, or who don?t know what an SAT test is, this is what you need to know. When the market goes up, the (VIX) goes down. When the market goes down, the (VIX) goes up. End of story. Class dismissed.
The (VIX) is expressed in terms of the annualized movement in the S&P 500, which today is at 1,800. So a (VIX) of $14 means that the market expects the index to move 4.0%, or 72 S&P 500 points, over the next 30 days.
You get this by calculating $14/3.46 = 4.0%, where the square root of 12 months is 3.46. The volatility index doesn?t really care which way the stock index moves. If the S&P 500 moves more than the projected 4.0%, you make a profit on your long (VIX) positions.
Probability statistics suggest that there is a 68% chance (one standard deviation) that the next monthly market move will stay within the 4.0% range. I am going into this detail because I always get a million questions whenever I raise this subject with volatility-deprived investors.
It gets better. Futures contracts began trading on the (VIX) in 2004, and options on the futures since 2006. Since then, these instruments have provided a vital means through which hedge funds control risk in their portfolios, thus providing the ?hedge? in hedge fund.
But wait, there?s more. Now, erase the blackboard and start all over. Why should you care? If you sell short the (VIX) here at $24, you are picking up a derivative at a nice overbought level. Only prolonged, ?buy and hold? bull markets see volatility stay under $14 for any appreciable amount of time. That?s probably what we have now.
If you are a trader you can sell short the (VIX) futures somewhere over $20 and expect an easy profit sometime in the coming weeks. If we get another 5% rally somewhere along that way, that would do it.
If you don?t want to sell the (VIX) futures or options outright, then you can always sell short the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX). Better yet, you can buy a short (VIX) ETN outright, the Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (XIV).
If you make money on this trade, it will offset losses on other long positions.
No one who buys fire insurance ever complains when their house doesn?t burn down.
Volatility Can Be Your Friend
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