Global Market Comments
June 17, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE THREE HORSE RACE) plus
(HITCHIKING TO ALASKA)
(AAPL), (MSFT), (NVDA), (TLT), (MCD), (VZ), (GLD), (NLY)
Global Market Comments
June 17, 2024
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE THREE HORSE RACE) plus
(HITCHIKING TO ALASKA)
(AAPL), (MSFT), (NVDA), (TLT), (MCD), (VZ), (GLD), (NLY)
We have a three-horse race underway in the stock market right now between Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and NVIDIA (NVDA). One day, one is the largest company in the world, another day a different company noses ahead.
And here’s the really good news: this race has no end. Sure, (NVDA) has far and away the most momentum and it should hit my long-term target of $1,400 this year, giving it a market capitalization of $3.44 trillion. (MSFT) and (AAPL) will have to stretch to make another 20% gain by year-end.
Who will really end this three-year race? You will, as the benefits of AI, hyper-accelerating technology, and deflation rains down upon you and your retirement portfolio.
Here is the reality of the situation. The Magnificent Seven has really shrunk to the Magnificent One: NVIDIA. (NVDA) alone has accounted for 32% of S&P 500 gains this year. There are now 400 ETFs where (NVDA) is the biggest holding, largely through share price appreciation. These dislocations in the market are grand. This will end in tears….but not yet.
Dow 240,000 here we come!
After six months of grief, pain, and suffering last week, my (TLT) LEAPS finally went into the money last week.
Remember the (TLT)?
On January 18, I bought the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) January 17, 2025, $95-98 at-the-money vertical Bull Call spread LEAPS at $1.25 or best. On Friday, they nudged up to $1.35. But I kept averaging down with the $93-$96’s and the $90-$93’s which are now at a max profit.
We lost six months on this trade thanks to a hyper-conservative which is eternally fighting the last battle. A 9.2% peak certainly put the fear of God in them and they persist in thinking a return to higher inflation rates is just around the corner.
Markets, however, have a different view. They are now discounting a 25-basis point cut in September followed by another in December. That will easily take the (TLT) up to $100. This is why we go long-dated on LEAPS. There is plenty of room for error….lots of room, even room for the Fed’s error. If you wait long enough, everything goes up.
With THIS Fed fighting it seems to pay off. That is what happened when Jay Powell waited a full year until raising rates for a super-heated economy. He now risks tipping the US into recession by lowering rates too slowly, when virtually all data points are softening. I guess that’s what happens when you have a Political Science major as Fed governor.
And here is what the Fed is missing. AI is destroying jobs at a staggering rate, not just minimum wage ones but low-end programming ones as well. That’s what the 300,000 job losses over the last two years in Silicon Valley have been all about.
It’s unbelievable the rate at which AI is replacing real people in jobs. If you want a good example of that, I had to call Verizon (VZ) yesterday to buy an international plan, and I never even talked to a human once. They listed three international plans in a calm, even, convincing male voice, and I picked one.
Or go to McDonalds (MCD) where $500 machines are replacing $40,000 a year workers. This is going on everywhere at the same time at the fastest speed I have ever seen any new technology adopted. So buy stocks, that’s all I can say.
It is not just the (TLT) that is having a great month. The entire interest rate-sensitive sector has been on fire as well. My favorite cell phone tower REIT, Crown Castle International with its generous 6.28% dividend yield, has jumped 15%. Distressed lender Annaly Capital Management (NLY) with its spectacular 13.08% dividend, has appreciated by 11%.
So far in June, we are up +1.04%. My 2024 year-to-date performance is at +19.39%. The S&P 500 (SPY) is up +13.83% so far in 2024. My trailing one-year return reached +36.31%.
That brings my 16-year total return to +696.02%. My average annualized return has recovered to +51.56%.
As the market reaches higher and higher, I continue to pare back risk in my portfolio. I stopped out of my near-money gold position (GLD) at close to breakeven because we were getting too close to the nearest strike price.
Some 63 of my 70 round trips were profitable in 2023. Some 29 of 38 trades have been profitable so far in 2024, and several of those losses were really break-even.
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% but reduces the cuts by March from three to one, citing an inflation rate that remains elevated. The projections were very hawkish, and the markets sold off on the news.
CPI Comes in Cool, unchanged MOM and 3.4% YOY. The May Nonfarm Payroll Report out Friday was an anomaly. It’s game on once again.
Europe Imposes Stiff Tariff on Chinese EVs, up to 38.1%. Daimler Benz, BMW, and Fiat have to be protected or they will go out of business.
The Gold Rush Will Continue through 2024, as much of Asia is still accumulating the yellow metal. Asia lacks the stock market we here in the US enjoy. A global monetary easing is at hand.
Broadcom (AVGO) Announces a 10:1 Split, and the shares explode to the upside. Earnings were also great. I actually predicted this in my newsletter last week and again at my Wednesday morning biweekly strategy webinar. The split takes place on July 15. Split fever continues. Buy (AVGO) on dips.
Apple (AAPL) Soars to New All-Time High, over $200 a share for the first time. However, it is now only the third largest company in the world, losing first place to (NVDA) and (MSFT). Analysts piled up the benefits of pitching AI to one billion preexisting customers. Just don’t tell Elon Musk.
Dollar Hits One Month High, on soaring interest rates spinning out from the super-hot May Nonfarm Payroll Report. This may be your last chance to sell at the highs. Never own a currency with falling interest rates. Just look at the Japanese yen.
Stock Buybacks Hit $242 Billion in Q1, but a new 1% tax may slow down the activity. The tax was passed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022 and is retroactive to January 1, 2023. (AAPL), (DIS), (CVX), (META), (GS), (WFC), and (NVDA) were the big buyers.
Home Equity Hits All-Time High at $17 Trillion according to CoreLogic. About 60% of homeowners have a mortgage. Their equity equals the home’s value minus outstanding debt. Total home equity for U.S. homeowners with and without a mortgage is $34 trillion. That is a lot of cash that could potentially end up in the stock market.
Home Prices to Keep Rising says Redfin CEO. While experts are forecasting more homes will be available, they said the boost in supply is not enough to solve affordability issues for buyers. Interest rates are expected to come down, but not by enough to counteract high prices.
Elon Musk Wins his $56 Billion Pay Package after a shareholder vote where retail investors came to his rescue. Institutional investors like CalPERS were overwhelmingly against it. It didn’t help that Elon moved Tesla to Texas. State pension funds always show a heavy bias in favor of local companies. Luck for California teachers includes (NVDA), (AAPL), (GOOGL), and (SMCI). (TSLA) rose 4% on the news.
The Gold Rush Will Continue through 2024, as much of Asia is still accumulating the yellow metal. Asia lacks the stock market we here in the US enjoy. A global monetary easing is at hand.
US Homes Sales Fall, down 1.7% month-over-month in May on a seasonally adjusted basis and dropped 2.9% from a year earlier. Median home sale price rose to a record high of $439,716, up 1.6% month-over-month and 5.1% year-over-year.
My Ten-Year View
When we come out the other side of the recession, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age or the next Roaring Twenties. The economy decarbonizing and technology hyper accelerating, creating enormous investment opportunities. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The new America will be far more efficient and profitable than the old.
Dow 240,000 here we come!
On Monday, June 17, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index is released.
On Tuesday, June 18 at 7:00 AM EST, Retail Sales are published.
On Wednesday, June 19, the first-ever Juneteenth holiday where the stock market is closed. Juneteenth celebrates the date when the slaves in Texas were freed in 1866, the last to do so.
On Thursday, June 20 at 8:30 AM, the Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. We also get Building Permits.
On Friday, June 21 at 8:30 AM, the Existing Home Sales are announced.
At 2:00 PM the Baker Hughes Rig Count is printed.
As for me, as I am about to embark on Cunard’s Queen Elisabeth from Vancouver Canada on the Mad Hedge Seminar at Sea, I thought I’d recall some memories from when I first visited there 54 years ago.
Upon graduation from high school in 1970, I received a plethora of scholarships, one of which was for the then astronomical sum of $300 in cash from the Arc Foundation, whoever they were.
By age 18, I had hitchhiked in every country in Europe and North Africa, more than 50. The frozen wasteland of the North and the Land of Jack London and the northern lights beckoned.
After all, it was only 4,000 miles away. How hard could it be? Besides, oil had just been discovered on the North Slope and there were stories of abundant high-paying jobs.
I started hitching to the Northwest, using my grandfather’s 1892 30-40 Krag & Jorgenson rifle to prop up my pack and keeping a Smith & Wesson .38 revolver in my coat pocket. Hitchhikers with firearms were common in those days and they always got rides. Drivers wanted the extra protection.
No trouble crossing the Canadian border either. I was just another hunter.
The Alcan Highway started in Dawson Creek, British Columbia, and was built by an all-black construction crew during the summer of 1942 to prevent the Japanese from invading Alaska. It had not yet been paved and was considered the great driving challenge in North America.
One 20-mile section of road was made out of coal, the only building material then available, and drivers turned black after transiting on a dusty day. I’ll never forget the scenery, vast mountains rising out of endless green forests, the color of the vegetation changing at every altitude.
The rain started almost immediately. The legendary size of the mosquitoes turned out to be true. Sometimes, it took a day to catch a ride. But the scenery was magnificent and pristine.
At one point a Grizzley bear approached me. I let loose a shot over his head at 100 yards and he just turned around and lumbered away. It was too beautiful to kill.
I passed through historic Dawson City in the Yukon, the terminus of the 1898 Gold Rush. There, abandoned steamboats lie rotting away on the banks, being reclaimed by nature. The movie theater was closed but years later was found to have hundreds of rare turn-of-the-century nitrate movie prints frozen in the basement, a true gold mine. Steven Spielberg paid for their restoration.
Eventually, I got a ride with a family returning to Anchorage hauling a big RV. I started out in the back of the truck in the rain, but when I came down with pneumonia, they were kind enough to let me move inside. Their kids sang “Raindrops keep falling on my head” the entire way, driving me nuts. In Anchorage they allowed me to camp out in their garage.
Once in Alaska, there were no jobs. The permits required to start the big pipeline project wouldn’t be granted for four more years. There were 10,000 unemployed.
The big event that year was the opening of the first McDonald’s in Alaska. To promote the event, the company said they would drop dollar bills from a helicopter. Thousands of homesick showed up and a riot broke out, causing the stand to burn down. It was rumored their burgers were made of much cheaper moose meat anyway.
I made it all the way to Fairbanks to catch my first sighting of the wispy green contrails of the northern lights, impressive indeed. Then began the long trip back.
I lucked out by catching an Alaska Airlines promotional truck headed for Seattle. That got me free ferry rides through the inside passage. The driver wanted the extra protection as well. The gaudy, polished cruise destinations of today were back then pretty rough ports inhabited by tough, deeply tanned commercial fishermen and loggers who were heavy drinkers and always short of money. Alcohol features large in the history of Alaska.
From Seattle, it was just a quick 24-hour hop down to LA. I still treasure this trip. The Alaska of 1970 no longer exists, as it is now overrun with summer tourists. It now has 27 McDonald’s stands.
And with runaway global warming the climate is starting to resemble that of California than the polar experience it once was. Permafrost frozen for thousands of years is melting, causing the buildings among them to sink back into the earth.
It was all part of life’s rich tapestry.
The Alcan Highway Midpoint
The Alaska-Yukon Border in 1970
Good Luck and Good Trading,
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
October 19, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHO WAS THE GREATEST WEALTH CREATOR IN HISTORY?)
(FB), (AAPL), (GOOG), (AMZON),
(XOM), (BRKY), (T), (GM), (VZ), (CCA),
(WHY DOCTORS MAKE TERRIBLE TRADERS?)
Who’s been buttering your bread more than any other?
Which publicly listed company has created the most wealth in history?
I’ll give you some hints.
The founder never took a bath, was a devout vegetarian, and dropped out of college after the first semester. The only class he finished was for calligraphy. And he was a first-class asshole.
Silicon Valley residents will immediately recognize this character as Steve Jobs, the co-founder of Apple (AAPL).
In 43 years, his firm created over $3 trillion of wealth for his shareholders, making it the largest in the world.
Until a decade ago, Exxon (XOM) held the top spot, creating $900 million in new wealth, although to be fair, it took 100 years to do it.
To be completely and historically accurate, most of the original seven sister oil companies are decedents of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company.
Add the present value of these together, and Rockefeller is far and away the biggest money maker of all time. And he made most of this before income taxes were invented in 1913!
Reviewing the performance of other top-performing companies, it is truly amazing how much wealth was created from a technology boom that started in the 1980s.
Investors’ laser-like focus on the Magnificent Seven is well justified.
That’s why I often tell guests during my lectures around the world that if they really want to be lazy, just buy the ProShares Ultra Technology ETF (ROM) and forget everything else.
Another college dropout’s efforts, those of Bill Gates Microsoft (MSFT), produced an annualized return of 25% since 1986. That made him the third greatest wealth creator in history.
It also made him the world's richest man, until Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk came along. Gates is thought to have single-handedly created an additional 1,000 millionaires as so many employees were aided in stock options.
Facebook (FB) is the youngest on the list of top money makers, creating an annualized 34.5% return since it went public in 2012.
Alphabet (GOOG) is the second newest on the list, racking up a 24.9% annualized return since 2004.
Amazon (AMZN) is 14th on the list of all-time wealth creators and has just entered its 20th year as a public company.
Being an armchair business and financial historian, many runners-up were major companies in my day, but generate snores among Millennials now.
Believe it or not, General Motors (GM) still ranks as the 8th greatest wealth creator of all time, even though it went bankrupt in 2008.
Ma Bell or AT&T (T) ranks number 17th but was merged out of existence in 2005. A regrouping of Bell System spinoffs possesses the (T) ticker symbol today.
Among its distant relatives are Comcast (CCV) and Verizon Communications (VZ).
Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKY) ranks 12th as an income generator, with an annualized return of only 11.94%.
Its performance is diluted by the low returns afforded by the textile business before Buffet took it over in 1962. Buffet’s returns since then have been double that.
Analyzing the vast expanse of data over the last 100 years proves that single stock picking is a mug's game.
Since 1926, only 4% of publically traded stocks made ALL of the wealth generated by the stock market.
The other 96% either made no money to speak of, or went out of business.
This is why the Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on only 10%-20% of the market at any given time, the money-making part.
In other words, you have a one in 25 chance of picking a winner.
A modest 30 companies accounted for 30% of this wealth, while 50 stocks accounted for 40%.
You can only conclude that stocks make terrible investments, not even coming close to beating the minimal returns of one-month Treasury bills, a cash equivalent.
It also is a strong argument in favor of indexed investment in that through investing in all major companies, you are guaranteed to grab the outsized winners.
That is unless you follow the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader, which picked Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, NVIDIA, and Tesla right out of the gate.
If you want to learn more about the number crunching behind this piece, please visit the research of Hendrik Bessembinder at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.
Such a Money Maker!
Global Market Comments
March 22, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE MAD HEDGE TRADERS & INVESTORS SUMMIT VIDEOS ARE UP!)
(THE BARBELL PLAY WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY),
(BRKA), (BRKA), (BAC), (KO), (AXP), (VZ), (BK) (USB), (TLT), (AAPL), (MRK), (ABBV), (CVX), (GM), (PCC), (BNSF)
CLICK HERE to download today's position sheet.
Global Market Comments
October 19, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BARBELL PLAY WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY),
(BRKA), (BRKA), (BAC), (KO), (AXP), (VZ), (BK) (USB),
(MRK), (ABBV), (CVX), (GM), (PCC), (BNSF), (TLT), (AAPL)
Global Market Comments
January 11, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trades:
(THE BARBELL PLAY WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY),
(BRKA), (BRKA), (BAC), (KO), (AXP), (VZ), (BK) (USB), (TLT), (AAPL), (MRK), (ABBV), (CVX), (GM), (PCC), (BNSF)
Global Market Comments
March 4, 2021
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BARBELL PLAY WITH BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY),
(BRKA), (BRKA), (BAC), (KO), (AXP), (VZ), (BK) (USB),
(TLT), (AAPL), (MRK), (ABBV), (CVX), (GM), (PCC), (BNSF)
It’s time to give myself a dope slap.
I have been pounding the table all year about the merits of a barbell strategy, with equal weightings in technology and domestic recovery stocks. By owning both, you’ll always have something doing well as new cash flows bounce back and forth between the two sectors like a ping pong ball.
After all, nobody gets sector rotation right, unless they have been practicing for 50 years, like me.
Full disclosure: I have to admit that after 50 years of following him, I love Buffet. He was one of the first subscribers to my newsletter when it started up in 2008. Some of his best ideas have come from the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, like buying Bank of America for $5 in 2008.
Oh, and he hates Wall Street for constantly fleecing people. Ditto here.
In reading Warren Buffet’s annual letter (click here for the link), it occurred to me that his Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) shares were in effect a one-stop barbell investment.
For a start, Warren owns a serious slug of Apple (AAPL), some $120 billion worth, or 2.5% of the total fund. That gives (BRKB) some technology weighting. It cost him only $20 billion. The dividends he received entirely paid for the initial cost. So he owns 4% of Apple for free.
I remember the battle over the initial “BUY” five years ago. Warren fought it, insisting he didn’t understand the smart phone business. In the end, he bought Apple for its global brand value alone.
That is Warren Buffet to a tee.
The next five largest publicly listed holdings are Bank of America (BAC), Coca-Cola (KO), American Express (AXP), and Verizon Communications (VZ). These are your classic domestic recovery sectors. And with a heavy weighting in other banks (BK) (USB), Buffet is effectively short the bond market (TLT), another position I hugely favor.
Also included in the package is a liberal salting of pharmaceuticals, Merck (MRK) and AbbVie (ABBV). He has a small energy weighting with Chevron (CVX). He even has a position in old heavy metal America with General Motors (GM).
Berkshire is also one of the world’s largest property & casualty insurance owners. Its current “float” is $138 billion. You all know his flagship holding, GEICO. And the gecko mascot isn’t going anywhere as long as Warren lives. It was Warren’s idea.
It all seems to work for Warren. In 2020, he earned a staggering $42.5 billion. All told, Berkshire’s businesses employ 360,000, second to only Amazon (AMZN), and is the largest taxpayer in the United States, accounting for 3% of government revenues. Berkshire is also the largest owner of capital goods & equipment in the US worth $156 billion, topping (AT&T).
Many of Warrens's early 1956 $1,000 investors are millionaires many times over….and over 100 years old, prompting him to muse if ownership of his shares extended life.
Warren’s annual letter, which he spends practically the entire year working on, is always one of the best reads in the financial markets. There isn’t a better 50,000-foot view out there. He also admits to his mistakes, such as his disastrous purchase of Precision Castparts (PCC) in 2016 for $37 billion, which later suffered from the crash in the aerospace industry. In 2020, Buffet wrote off $11 billion of that acquisition.
He can do worse. In 1993, he bought the Dexter Shoe Company for $433 million worth of Berkshire stock. The company went under, but the Berkshire stock today is worth $8.7 billion.
Buffet’s letters always refer back to some of his “greatest hits,” today legends in the business history of the United States: GEICO, Furniture Mart, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and See’s Candies, one of the largest employers of women in the US using 150-year-old recipes. Its peanut brittle is to die for.
In 2009, Buffet snatched away from me BNSF for a song, now the most profitable railroad in the country, an amalgamation of 360 railroads over 170 years. I say “snatched away” because it was my favorite railroad trading vehicle for decades until he bought the entire company. I hear its trains run by my home every night as a grim reminder.
Another benefit to owning (BRKB) is that Buffet is far and away the largest buyer of his own shares, soaking up $25 billion worth in 2020. And he is buying the shares of other companies that are also aggressively buying their own shares, like Apple ($200 billion with last year). It all sounds like the perfect money creation machine to me.
It gets better. Berkshires “B” shares trade options, meaning you can buy LEAPS (Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities), which by now, you all know and love. I’ll run some numbers for you.
With (BRKB) now trading at $254, you can buy the January 2023 $300-$310 call spread for $2.50. If the shares close anywhere over $310 by the 2023 expiration, the position will be worth $10.00, giving you a gain of 300%. And you only need an appreciation of $56, or 22% in the shares to capture this blockbuster profit, giving you upside leverage of an eye-popping 13.63X in the best run company in America.
See, I told you you’d like it.
This is how poor people become rich. In fact, my target for (BRKB) is $300 for end of 2021 and $400 for 2022, right when the two-year LEAPS expire.
One question I often get about Berkshire is what happens when Warren Buffet goes to his greater reward, not an impossible concept given that he is 90 years old.
I imagine the shares will have a bad day or two, and then recover. Buffet has been hiring his replacements for a decade or more, and he handed off day-to-day operation years ago (I didn’t want to move to Omaha, no mountains).
When that happens, it will be the best buying opportunity of the year. And another chance to load up on those LEAPS.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
February 18, 2021
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(WARREN BUFFETT’S BIOPHARMACEUTICAL BETS)
(MRK), (ABBV), (BMY), (PFE), (NKTR), (VZ), (CVX), (AAPL), (BRK.B)
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
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