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Social distancing signals the death of business in March and April 2020. Enter online shopping and E-commerce.
E-commerce’s greatest strength is pulling ahead of its competition while Millennials have also been the catalyst in turning the general shopping experience into a seamless digital affair.
And now that the world is at the mercy of an invisible virus, the use case for e-commerce business models has never been brighter, more appealing, and contactless.
That’s not to say that there are still net negatives from worker’s losing their jobs and being unable to buy goods, whether online or not. The overall damage to tech companies as a result of the pandemic cannot be ameliorated with a simple panacea.
The pain is just starting as the tech market searches for a bottom.
Covid-19 cases have mushroomed to over 11,200, and investors need to digest that continued underperformance lies ahead in the short-term.
But, the long-term migration towards digital models is looking better by the second.
Essentially, the e-commerce method is being supercharged by the coronavirus and the positive unintended consequences harvested by the e-commerce business models are directly correlated to increasing fatalities.
The health scare is ushering in a giant wave of new long-term customers who are just starting their digital experiences, making investing and e-commerce a topic worth discussing.
Astonishingly, the work environment has truly metamorphosized the past two weeks - any worker who can work at home is now working at home.
No longer do we have the hesitant boss who thinks working at home is all fantasy and no production.
Local policies have been so drastic in some cities that lockdowns of schools and restaurants have become commonplace.
People in those cities have also begun shunning public, crowded places in the name of health and survival.
How bad is it out there on the streets, and how poorly are U.S. tech firms doing?
The economic pain caused by the escalating coronavirus pandemic will be worse than the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.
The Chinese economy is contracting at a 15% annual rate, while the European economy is already in severe recession because of the drop off of China revenue.
In the U.S., they are shutting down restaurants, schools and major events; people are going to be without a paycheck, and this doesn’t set up nicely for consumers to pay for tech services that aren’t utilities.
Unless there are major policy moves soon, a downward spiral will usher in something akin to a global tech recession, and U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin is already ringing the alarm bells by saying unemployment could spike to 20%.
Tech won’t avoid the carnage in this drastic scenario, and it's still not “buy the dip” time.
Many industries are already queued up at Washington’s front door for a bailout and even though tech firms are better positioned than say, the oil industry, the overall slide in demand from consumers will hit come next earnings report which is just around the corner.
The bill Washington will need to foot appears upwards of $3 trillion and it’s easy to understand why when, according to a March 2020 YouGov survey, over a quarter (27%) of those in the US and 14% in the UK said they avoided public places and that number has to be closer to 80% now.
What's important to note when it comes to investing in e-commerce, is that some tech firms are a little bit luckier than others, such as Amazon, who can’t find enough workers and is raising wages and opening 100,000 new positions across the US to ensure its delivery network can service the coronavirus pandemic.
Not only do they need full-time positions but also part-time positions will be made available to meet historical seasonal labor demand in its fulfillment centers.
Management promised to inject $350 million to raising wages by $2 per hour in the US throughout April.
Amazon announced it would limit its warehouses to critical items such as medicine and household staples to ensure they meet demand.
Right now, investing in e-commerce means the companies that provide currently popular goods, such groceries, pet supplies, beauty and personal care products, health and household items, baby products, and industrial items.
Other e-commerce companies haven’t fared as well as Amazon, such as furniture e-company Wayfair who reportedly relies on mainland China for half of its merchandise and sell only one type of product - furniture.
Wayfair’s supply chain disruptions are hurting the company’s ability to deliver furniture, but it also coincides with a massive drop off in demand as consumers shun furniture for household items and groceries.
Shares of Wayfair have dropped over 400% since January partly because the company has never been profitable and is now entering into a worsening climate to sell furniture which equated to an optimal signal for investors to dump the stock in bucketloads.
I have been bearish on Wayfair since last year and envisioned an imminent wealth-destroying effect for their business model, but I am shocked that shares dropped this rapidly.
Three weeks ago, the Boston-based company fired 500 people to help “lower costs,” validating my hypothesis.
The exorbitant cost of acquiring each additional customer was the reason I hated this company in the first place.
Uncertainty is the message of the day, and certain e-commerce companies will enjoy the turbocharging or discharging of their models.
Tech shares hate uncertainty and investors must brace themselves with regards to investing and e-commerce.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2020-03-20 11:02:232020-05-11 13:17:45The Boom in E-Commerce
There are several overarching seminal tech trends that I swear by.
The generational broad-based migration from analog to digital is a critical foundation that underpins the success of not only tech stocks as a unified sector, but the outperformance of the Mad Hedge Technology Letter.
You’ll be pleased to discover that 2019 is right on queue with digital sales exploding by the American consumer over the holiday shopping period and Americans ditching brick and mortar stores in droves.
Amazon (AMZN) broke records on Cyber Monday bragging that in terms of the number of items sold, it had its "single biggest shopping day."
Black Friday was a big success too selling “hundreds of millions" of products between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.
Consumers scooped up the toys, home, fashion and health, and personal care products on Amazon’s e-commerce platform.
Hot ticket items on Black Friday included Amazon's own Echo Dot and Fire TV Stick with Alexa Voice Remote, Play-Doh Sweet Shoppe Cookie Creations, Keurig K-Cafe Coffee Maker and LEGO City Ambulance Helicopter Kit.
Adobe (ADBE) Analytics estimates that the sales for the shopping bonanza easily eclipsed $29 billion, or 20% of total revenue for the full holiday season.
This is the aha moment when digital integration into shopping forced a paradigm shift to the business environment by capturing the focal point of American wallets.
Digital used to be the minority, but going forward, it will dictate the terms of engagement.
What does this mean in the bigger scope of things?
Mobile is the biggest winner of this brave new world.
Shopping apps gave consumers the platform to use their phones as a digital wallet.
Salesforce data discovered that Thanksgiving sales as a proportion of U.S. digital sales grew 17% and mobile sales rose 35% on Black Friday with 65% of total e-commerce executed through a mobile device.
“Black Friday broke mobile shopping records and even when shoppers went to stores, they were now buying nearly 41% more online before going to the store to pick up,” said Taylor Schreiner, principal analyst and head of Adobe Digital Insights.
Shopify (SHOP) did over $900 million in sales this year and 69% were from phones and only 31% from desktop computers.
Black Friday was "the biggest day ever for mobile," tracking $2.9 billion in sales from smartphones alone, or 39% of all e-commerce sales, a 21% increase year over year.
The data also showed that smaller e-commerce outfits had a harder time driving sales than large e-commerce platforms.
The network effect truly works both ways and the success of the biggest and best also correlated to a meaningful decline of physical shopping visit to stores of 6% on Black Friday.
According to The NPD Group's Holiday Purchase Intentions Survey, 20% of sales were picked up in the store. This click-and-collect business has been a huge winner for the likes of Walmart (WMT).
E-commerce leaders are having enormous success introducing omnichannel approaches to the selling channels.
The average order value on Black Friday rose 5.9% year over year to $168, a new record, in part because shoppers have become more comfortable buying expensive items online because the sales are even juicier.
Unfortunately, the rise in volume has meant lower margins.
Discounts averaged between 37% to 47% and home and consumer electronics products were popular.
With all the rumblings of tariff trauma and an approaching recession, the American consumer displayed robustness that largely met the consensus of analysts.
The takeaway is that e-commerce is as healthy as ever and should prolong not only the strength in e-commerce companies but the overall American economy.
The winners are the behemoths of Amazon, Target (TGT), Shopify, and Walmart. Shares should receive a moderate tailwind through the New Year.
Avoid smaller niche players like Etsy (ETSY) and Wayfair (W).
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2019-12-04 10:02:202020-05-11 13:00:26The Rush to Buy Online
Investors following the eBay (EBAY) saga should be cheering from the sidelines as the master plan from Elliot Management and Starboard are pressuring eBay’s management into the radical changes the investors initially called out for.
Rewarding the vulture funds with two board seats along with spearheading a comprehensive review of the business model appears more probable than not.
The forced changes have imminent repercussions to the stock price as the breaking up of the company into individual pieces is seen as coaxing out more embedded value while separating out the main e-commerce platform for a long-awaited fix.
These are two highly bullish signals.
Elliot’s reasons for altering eBay’s business model were essentially blamed on two issues - shoddy management and the commingling of growth assets with its inferior e-commerce platform within the eBay umbrella hindering value appreciation.
Even though prospects look bright on this fix, Elliot doesn’t always get its way.
Four years ago, Elliot was the primary investor in Samsung's construction division and rebuffed efforts from Jay Y. Lee, the South Korean business elite and the vice chairman of Samsung Group serving as de facto head, to have another division of Samsung purchase the construction arm for $8 billion.
In 2017, Lee was convicted of bribery and imprisoned and sentenced to three years, Elliot sold their Samsung construction shares after the tide went against them and could not prevent the eventual purchase.
Lee was later set free in 2018 demonstrating the unfettered power of the ruling Korean families and Elliot was up against it in someone else’s backyard.
Even with that setback, Elliot has been ultra-successful abroad, examples are plentiful such as in May 2018, Elliott Management seized control of Telecom Italia controlling two-thirds of Telecom Italia's board seats.
This vulture fund has been specialists at pinpointing ill-ran operations and squeezing the fat off the edges to later sell off assets for a profit.
These tactics have usually centered around cost-cutting, financial engineering, or draining the upper management swamp if need be.
Personally, eBay has the foundations to be competitive with the top e-commerce companies and they need an activist investor to turn this ship around.
In this way, the turnaround will occur much quicker than an organic method because Elliot will apply pressure on all the cancerous parts of the model and stamp them out as fast as possible.
Elliot now has a golden path to two board seats and spinning off StubHub, its uber-growth online events tickets selling platform, will guarantee Elliot and Starboard walk away from this transaction with a heavy profit.
StubHub was bought on the cheap in 2007 when online assets were trading cheaply for $310 million.
The firm contributes 11% to eBay’s top line.
The classified ads business is the other part of the high-growth online portfolio that could be sold for a profit. They operate mainly in Germany and the United Kingdom and comprise almost 10% of sales.
The plan after these premium assets are sold is to focus on mending its wounded e-commerce business.
The core business would need a flushing out of current management.
Bringing in some established hands to reroute the company’s course will boost the shares another 25%.
The phrase “more efficient use of resources” or a similar version of this meaning was used six times in Elliot Management’s letter to eBay Shareholders.
They cited in the letter that EBITDA margins have declined YOY for 12 straight quarters proving that revenue-boosting initiatives have failed spectacularly.
Elliot hopes a better run company will constitute in higher operating margins to the tune of “32% in 2021.”
In the next 3 years, Elliot wants to raise operating expenses by $250 million but reduce “wasteful spend” which they outlined as one of the main reasons hamstringing the company.
Missed opportunities is another major opportunity cost contributing to the underperformance of eBay.
eBay has been left out of the niche e-commerce areas where former eBay employees exploited this untapped source of growth.
The success of Wayfair (W), the furniture e-commerce platform, and Etsy (ETSY), the personalized crafts e-commerce platform, are two glaring examples of sales that should have been registered by eBay but gobbled up by two minnows.
In short, Elliot’s flawless execution and aggressive plan are ideally playing itself out how they wrote it up from the beginning.
It’s hard not to see eBay’s stock higher a year from now as long as Elliot and Starboard get their way.
The brilliant part of this whole turnaround is that eBay doesn’t have to become Amazon to reap share appreciation, they merely need to be not as bad as they were which at the first stage of rebooting the business is the lowest hanging fruit out there.
Once the company becomes mature and more successful, growth and beating relative expectations are harder to achieve.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/margins.png393974Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2019-03-04 08:06:072019-07-10 21:45:06Riding the eBay Boom
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