Moving on to tomorrow’s tech and the decisive trends that will power your tech portfolio, you can’t help but think about what will happen to the American university system if we are slammed with another delta dropkick.
A bachelor’s degree has already been massively devalued with each subsequent “wave” knocking off an extra 20% from a 4-year achievement.
Another unstoppable trend that shows no signs of abating is the “winner take all” mentality of the tech industry.
The virus was a great catalyst for U.S. tech companies and U.S. asset holders in stocks and real estate to cash in with a smash and grab of the century effectively leaving the rest of the uncompetitive global economy in its wake.
Remember this is all while China is destroying their own tech companies with zeal because they perceive them as too powerful at this point and a legitimate threat to the interest of the communist party.
Now, tech giants will apply their huge relative gains to gut different industries and have set their sights on academics and the buildings they operate from as their next exercise in destroy and conquer.
Recently, we got clarity on big-box malls becoming the new tech fulfillment centers with the largest mall operator in the United States, Simon Property Group (SPG), signaling they are willing to convert space leftover in malls from Sears and J.C. Penny.
The next bombshell would hit sooner rather than later.
College campuses will become the newest of the new Amazon (AMZN), Walmart (WMT), or Target (TGT) eCommerce fulfillment centers, and let me explain to you why.
When the California state college system shut down its campuses and moved classes online due to the coronavirus in March, rising sophomore Jose Antonio returned home to Vallejo, California where he expected to finish his classes and “chill” with friends and family.
Then Amazon announced plans to fill 100,000 positions across the U.S at fulfillment and distribution centers to handle the surge of online orders. A month later, the company said it needed another 75,000 positions just to keep up with demand. More than 1,000 of those jobs were added at the five local fulfillment centers. Amazon also announced it would raise the minimum wage from $15 to $17 per hour through the end of April.
Antonio, a marketing and communications major, jumped at the chance and was hired right away to work in the fulfillment center near Vacaville that mostly services the greater Bay Area. He was thrilled to earn extra spending money while he was home and doing his schoolwork online.
This was just the first wave of hiring for these fulfillment center jobs, and there will be a second, third, and fourth wave as eCommerce volumes spike.
Even college students desperate for the cash might quit academics all together to focus on starting from the bottom at Amazon or launching an e-store.
Even though many of these jobs at Amazon fulfillment centers aren’t the plush office job that Ivy League graduates covet, any job will do for the bottom 40% of hardworking Americans.
The rise of ecommerce has happened at a time when the cost of a college education has risen by 250% and more often than not, the price rises don’t live up to the value accretion.
Many fresh graduates are mired in $100,000 or even $200,000 plus debt burdens that prevent them from getting a foothold on the property ladder and delay household formation and there’s been no indication President Biden is about to cancel this colossal debt.
Then consider that many of the 1000s of colleges that dot America have borrowed capital to the hills building glitzy business schools, $200 million football locker rooms, and rewarding the entrenched bureaucrats at the school management level outrageous compensation packages.
America will be saddled with scores of colleges and universities shuttering because they can’t meet their debt obligations.
The financial profiles of prospective students have dipped by 50% or more in the short-term with their parents unable to find the money to send their kids back to college, not to mention the health risks.
Then there is the international element here with the lucrative Chinese student that added up to 500,000 total students attending American universities in the past.
They won’t come back as well.
The college campuses will be carcasses with juicy meat on the bones allowing Jeff Bezos to choose the prime cuts.
The coronavirus has exposed the American college system for what it is, and not every college has a $40 billion endowment fund like Harvard to withstand today’s financial apocalypse.
The only two industries now big enough to quench big tech’s insatiable appetite for devouring revenue are healthcare and education.
We are seeing this play out quickly, and once tech gets a foothold literally and physically on campus, the rest of the colleges will be thrust into an existential crisis of epic proportions with the only survivors being the ones with large endowment funds and a global brand name.
It’s scary, isn’t it?
This is how tech has evolved and certain parts of society are now diminished while others supercharged.
This is also part of how the world is changing so rapidly now because of a combustible mix of geopolitics, health scares, and accelerating technology that average people can’t recognize the world we live in anymore.
When this happens, close your eyes and buy tech stocks since most of us don’t run pharma companies or can’t extract largesse from dollar or euro-denominated governments.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2021-12-27 14:02:312022-01-03 15:51:09Converting Campuses For Fulfillment Centers
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the November 17 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from the safety of Silicon Valley.
Q: Even though your trading indicator is over 80, do you think that investors should be 100% long stocks using the barbell names?
A: Yes, in a hyper-liquidity type market like we have now, we can spend months in sell territory before the indexes finally rollover. That happened last year and it’s happening now. So, we can chop in this sort of 50-85 range probably well into next year before we get any sell signals. Selling apparently is something you just do anymore; if things go down, you just buy more. It’s basically the Bitcoin strategy these days.
Q: What do you think about Rivian's (RIVN) future?
A: Well, with Amazon behind them, it was guaranteed to be a success. However, we mere mortals won't be able to buy any cars until 2024, and they have yet to prove themselves on mass production. Moreover, the stock is ridiculously expensive—even more than Tesla was in its most expensive days. And it’s not offering any great value, just momentum so I don’t want to chase it right here. I knew it was going to blow up to the upside when the IPO hit because the EV sector is just so hot and EVs are taking over the global economy. I will watch from a distance unless we get a sudden 40% drawdown which used to happen with Tesla all the time in the early days.
Q: Are you worried about another COVID wave?
A: No, because any new virus that appears on the scene is now attacking a population that is 80-90% immune. Most people got immunity through shots, and the last 10% got immunity by getting the disease. So, it’s a much more difficult population for a new virus to infect, which means no more stock market problems resulting from the pandemic.
Q: Is investing in retail or Walmart (WMT) the best way to protect myself from inflation?
A: It’s actually quite a good way because Walmart has unlimited ability to raise prices, which goes straight through to the share price and increases profit margins. Their core blue-collar customers are now getting the biggest wage hikes in their lives, so disposable income is rocketing. And really, overall, the best way to protect yourself from inflation is to own your own home, which 62% of you do, and to own stocks, which 100% of the people in this webinar do. So, you are inflation-protected up the wazoo coming to Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Not to mention we buy inflation plays like banks here.
Q: Why are financials great, like Bank of America (BAC)?
A: Because the more their assets increase in value, the greater the management fees they get to collect. So, it’s a perfect double hockey stick increase in profits.
*Interest rates are rising
*Rising interest rates increase bank profit margins
*A recovering economy means default rates are collapsing
*Thanks to Dodd-Frank, banks are overcapitalized
*Banks shares are cheap relative to other stocks
*The bank sector has underperformed for a decade
*With rates rising value stocks like banks make the perfect rotation play out of technology stocks.
*Cryptocurrencies will create opportunities for the best-run banks.
Q: Do you think the market is in a state of irrational exuberance?
A: Yes. Warning: irrational exuberance could last for 5 years. That’s what happened when Alan Greenspan, the Fed governor in 1996, coined that phrase and tech stocks went straight up all the way up until 2000. We made fortunes off of it because what happens with irrational exuberance is that it becomes more irrational, and we’re seeing that today with a lot of these overdone stock prices.
Q: Should I hold cash or bonds if you had to choose one?
A: Cash. Bonds have a terrible risk/reward right now. You’re getting like a 1% coupon in the face of inflation that's at 6.2%. It’s like the worst mismatch in history. In fact, we made $8 points on our bond shorts just in the last week. So just keep selling those rallies, never own any bonds at all—I don’t care what your financial advisor tells you, these are worthless pieces of paper that are about to become certificates of confiscation like they did back in the 80s when we had high inflation.
Q: What’s your yearend target for Nvidia (NVDA)?
A: Up. It’s one of the best companies in the world. It’s the next trillion dollar company, but as for the exact day and time of when it hits these upside targets, I have no idea. We’ve been recommending Nvidia since it was $50, and it’s now approaching $400. So that’s another mad hedge 20 bagger setting up.
Q: What about CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)?
A: The call spread is looking like a complete write-off; we missed the chance to sell it at $170, it’s now at $88. So, I’m just going to write that one-off. Next time a biotech of mine has a giant one-day spike, I am selling. What you might do though with Crisper is convert your call spread to straight outright calls; that increases your delta on the position from 10% to 40% so that way you only need to get a $20 move up in the stock price and you’ll get a break-even point on your long position. So, convert the spreads to longs—that’s a good way of getting out of failed spreads. You do not need a downside hedge anymore, and you’ll find those deep out of the money calls for pennies on the dollar. That is the smart thing to do, however, you have to put money into the position if you’re going to do that.
Q: Would you buy a LEAP in Tesla (TSLA) at this time?
A: No, it’s starting a multi-month topping out process, then it goes to sleep for 5 months. After it’s been asleep for 5 months then I go back and look at LEAPS. Remember, we had a 45% drawdown last year. I bet we get that again next year.
Q: Will inflation subside?
A: Probably in a year or so. A lot depends on how quickly we can break up the log jam at the ports, and how this infrastructure spending plays out. But if we do end the pandemic, a lot of people who were afraid of working because of the virus (that’s 5 or 10 million people) will come back and that will end at least wage inflation.
Q: When is the next Mad Hedge Fund Trader Summit?
A: December 7, 8, and 9; and we have 27 speakers lined up for you. We’ll start emailing probably next week about that.
Q: Are gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) getting close to a buy?
A: Maybe, unless Bitcoin comes and steals their thunder again. It has been the worst-performing asset this year. The only gold I have now is in my teeth.
Q: Morgan Stanley (MS) is tanking today, should I dump the call spread?
A: I’m going to see if we hold here and can close above our maximum strike price of $98 on Friday. But all of the financials are weak today, it’s nothing specific to Morgan Stanley. Let’s see if we get another bounce back to expiration.
Q: Where can I view all the current positions?
A: We have all of our positions in the trade alert service in your account file, and you should find a spreadsheet with all the current positions marked to market every day.
Q: What is the barbell strategy?
A: Half your money is in big tech and the other half is in financials and other domestic recovery plays. That way you always have something that’s going up.
Q: Is Elon Musk selling everything to avoid taxes from Nancy Pelosi?
A: Actually, he’s selling everything to avoid taxes from California governor Gavin Newsom—it’s the California taxes that he has to pay the bill on, and that’s why he has moved to Texas. As far as I know, you have to pay taxes no matter who is president.
Q: Will the price of oil hit $100?
A: I doubt it. How high can it go before it returns to zero?
Q: Is it time to buy a Caterpillar (CAT) LEAP?
A: We’re getting very close because guess what? We just got another $1.2 billion to spend on infrastructure. Not a single job happens here without a Caterpillar tractor or a tractor from Komatsu for John Deere (DE).
Q: Will small caps do well in 2022?
A: Yes, this is the point in the economic cycle where small caps start to outperform big caps. So, I'd be buying the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) on dips. That's because smaller, more leveraged companies do better in healthy economies than large ones.
Q: Is it too late to buy coal?
A: Yes, it’s up 10 times. The next big move for coal is going to be down.
Q: Peloton (PTON) is down 300%; should I buy here?
A: Turns out it’s just a clothes rack, after all, it isn't a software company. I didn’t like the Peloton story from the start—of course, I go outside and hike on real mountains rather than on machines, so I’m biased—but it has “busted story” written all over it, so don’t touch Peloton.
Q: Will spiking gasoline prices cause US local governments to finally invest in Subways and Trams like European cities, or is this something that will never happen?
A: This will never happen, except in green states like New York and California. A lot of the big transit systems were built when labor was 10 cents a day by poor Irish and Italian immigrants—those could never be built again, these massive 100-mile subway systems through solid rock. So if you want to ride decent public transportation, go to Europe. Unfortunately, that’s the path the United States never took, and to change that now would be incredibly expensive and time-consuming. They’re talking about building a second BART tunnel under the bay bridge; that’s a $20 billion, 20-year job, these are huge projects. And for the last five years, we’ve had no infrastructure spending at all, just lots of talk.
Q: Would Tesla (TSLA) remains stable if something happened to Elon Musk?
A: Probably not; that would be a nice opportunity for another 45% correction. But if that happened, it would also be a great opportunity for another Tesla LEAPS. My long-term target for the stock is $10,000. Elon actually spends almost no time with Tesla now, it’s basically on autopilot. All his time is going into SpaceX now, which he has a lot more fun with, and which is actually still a private company, so he isn’t restricted with comments about space like he is with comments about Tesla. When you're the richest man in the world you pretty much get to do anything you want as long as you're not subject to regulation by the SEC.
Q: How realistic is it that holiday gatherings will trigger a huge wave of COVID in the United States forcing another lockdown and the Fed to delay a rise in interest rates?
A: I would say there’s a 0% chance of that happening. As I explained earlier, with 90% immunity in much of the country, viruses have a much harder time attacking the population with a new variant. The pandemic is in the process of leaving the stock market, and all I can say is good riddance.
Q: What about the Biden meeting with President Xi and Chinese stocks (FXI)?
A: It’s actually a very positive development; this could be the beginning of the end of the cold war with China and China’s war on capitalism. If that’s true, Chinese stocks are the bargain of the century. However, we’ve had several false green lights already this year, and with stuff like Microsoft (MSFT) rocketing the way it is, I’d rather go for the low-risk high-return trades over the high-risk, high return trades.
Q: What’s your opinion of Zillow (Z)?
A: I actually kind of like it long term, despite their recent disaster and exit from the home-flipping business.
Q: Do you like copper (CPER) for the long term?
A: Yes, because every electric car needs 200 lbs. of copper, and if you’re going from a million units a year to 25 million units a year, that’s a heck of a lot of copper—like three times the total world production right now.
To watch a replay of this webinar with all the charts, bells, whistles, and classic rock music, just log in to www.madhedgefundtrader.com, go to MY ACCOUNT, click on GLOBAL TRADING DISPATCH, then WEBINARS, and all the webinars from the last ten years are there in all their glory.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Following massive gains at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, several healthcare growth stocks have fallen a long way from their highs.
In fact, some high-quality names have become potential bargains due to the market's recent negative turn.
In this situation, we can apply Warren Buffett’s advice: "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."
That is, I think it might just be the time to be a bit greedy.
One of the companies affected by the massive pullback is Teladoc (TDOC).
Over the past 1.5 years, Teladoc has been on a rollercoaster ride when it comes to its price action.
Initially, the stock was regarded as merely a COVID-19 pandemic play with limited growth in the future.
Because of that perception, Teladoc's price started to drop the moment the people got their vaccine shots.
Some investors believe that when things go back to normal, the whole telehealth industry will become pointless.
I don't think that's the case.
I believe that digital medicine and the presence of virtual health services will become mainstays in our lives—and Teladoc is in an enviable position as one of the pioneers in this disruptive industry that's only starting to take on the healthcare system by storm.
When the pandemic started, it was nearly impossible for most people to gain access to healthcare.
Most patients were scared to travel to the doctor for consultations, causing them to cancel and postpone appointments.
What Teladoc offered is to turn the impossible possible for several patients who needed access to their healthcare providers—and its efforts were rewarded in spades.
In 2019, Teladoc reported $553 million in total revenue, increasing by 32% from its 2018 earnings.
By 2020, the business exploded to reach a whopping $1.09 billion, showing a massive 98% growth year-over-year. Moreover, visits and consultations skyrocketed by 206%.
To hold on to its lead, Teladoc has been working hard to bolster its competitive positioning. It seized a blockbuster acquisition and bought Livongo for $18.5 billion in cash and stock.
Adding Livongo to its portfolio means cornering the market on remote monitoring for patients suffering from chronic diseases.
This addition to its business not only expands Teladoc's business, but also opens a massive addressable market worth $50 billion to the company.
Teladoc can leverage this vast network through cross-selling products and services, thereby creating the Amazon (AMZN) of the healthcare world—a platform with an unbeatable ecosystem and an irresistible value proposition.
Since the merger, the two companies have developed a full-person digital healthcare platform called Primary360.
Meanwhile, Teladoc's growth story carries on, with the total revenue for 2021 already approaching the $2 billion mark.
This signifies an impressive 84% increase on top of the company's COVID-19-induced spurt.
As for 2022, Teladoc is projected to grow at a conservative 29%.
Despite the impressive growth of Teladoc, the company has barely scraped the surface.
Overall, the virtual care market is estimated to be worth $250 billion annually. Although Teladoc holds the most significant share thus far, it's evident that it has less than 1% of the market share.
In fact, the telemedicine industry is projected to be valued at half a trillion dollars globally by 2030.
Considering that Teladoc's yearly revenue thus far is sitting at only $2 billion, the company definitely has a lucrative growth runway in the coming 9 years.
In 2020, its stock price roughly tripled from being under $100 to reaching $300. Recently, though, Teladoc's price has gone down to approximately $130.
Given its obvious room for growth, I say this stock is undervalued. So, investors are granted the chance to add this company to their portfolio at a relatively low price.
With the massive market potential of this industry, it comes as no surprise that Teladoc now faces intense competition in the field.
The strongest rivals of the company in the telehealth segment include Amwell (AMWL), Walmart (WMT), Hims and Hers Health (HIM), and even Amazon.
With the market's sheer size, though, the situation doesn't seem to be a winner-takes-all type.
The space is definitely massive enough to support more than one telehealth company.
However, Teladoc does have the advantage as the first mover. It also has its impeccable partnership with Livongo, making it an anytime-anywhere-healthcare service.
So far, I can say that Teladoc is off to an excellent start in a rapid growth segment. I especially appreciate the company's goal to disrupt the medicine and healthcare space—a field that is in dire need of a revolution to eliminate the debilitating costs and crippling inefficiencies.
More than that, I think Teladoc is becoming instrumental in boosting the reach of the most effective medical professionals and offering a remarkable platform to promote artificial intelligence innovation in healthcare.
While growth stocks have already begun clawing their way back following the losses they suffered earlier this year, there are still former market favorites struggling to bounce back.
One of them is Teladoc Health (TDOC).
To date, Teladoc is still trading at roughly 40% below its previous highs.
While this can be frustrating for its investors, the current situation might just be an opportune time to add this stock to your portfolio.
Teladoc emerged as the leader in virtual care in 2020 by being at the right place at the right time when the pandemic struck. That year, the company’s revenue rose by a whopping 145% compared to its 2019 performance.
These days though, the stock has lost half of its value. Although that’s definitely a head-scratcher, Teladoc’s 51.5 million paid memberships in the United States alone still make it the most dominant force in this industry.
For a long-term investor, the situation presents a compelling opportunity.
Teladoc is a growing business that’s expanding both in the US and globally. While penetrating more markets would happen over time, the basic footprint has been established. This offers Teladoc much-needed exposure to a massive addressable market.
The global market for telemedicine is estimated to expand from $49.9 billion in 2019 to a jaw-dropping $459.8 billion by 2030.
In North America, which holds roughly 34.4% of the market share in 2020, the telemedicine market generated $19.23 billion during the pandemic.
Taking into consideration Teladoc’s revenue of $967.4 million for its US segments in 2020, it becomes clear that the company is only getting started, as this comprised only 5% of the market size.
If the company maintains its momentum, then the next 10 years would be an incredible journey for Teladoc investors.
Despite the disappointing share price performance of Teladoc in the past months, the company’s actual business has sustained its growth.
Revenue continues to rapidly rise, showing off a 151% growth in the first quarter of 2021.
This impressive growth has prompted Teladoc to boost its full-year revenue guidance to $2 billion, which indicates an 80% year-over-year gain.
Impressive growth has been observed all around, with access fee revenue going up 183% while visit fees climbed 24%.
Considering the size of the market, it no longer comes as a surprise that Teladoc is facing competitive threats.
Amazon (AMZN) and Amwell (AMWL) have recently entered the virtual care market. Even Walmart (WMT) and CVS (CVS) have been working on toppling Teladoc as well.
Despite the competition, Teladoc remains ahead of the pact thanks to its continuous efforts to innovate.
For example, the latest innovation from Teladoc is Primary360.
This product is designed to take virtual healthcare to the next level. It offers personalized service at the patient level. Here’s a preview of how it works.
Traditionally, patients go to their doctors when they discover a health problem. This is a reactive way of dealing with health. In contrast, Primary360 is proactive.
That is, the product monitors the patients individually from annual checkups to ongoing treatments to manage chronic conditions. Through closely monitoring the patients, Teladoc is able to perform earlier diagnoses of potential diseases and help doctors reach better outcomes for treatments.
To better picture the long-term rewards of this company, it’s good to keep in mind that Teladoc is actually the second biggest holding of Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), next only to Tesla (TSLA).
Teladoc Health emerged as one of the most popular pandemic plays in 2020.
While the stock tumbled when vaccines hit the market, its projected growth trajectory remains promising. In fact, Teladoc’s revenue growth is anticipated to skyrocket over the remainder of this decade, with telemedicine estimated to reach roughly half a trillion dollars by 2030.
For investors on the lookout for long-term plays, Teladoc Health's tumble has presented a good opportunity to add it to your portfolio.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2021-06-22 16:00:312021-06-25 22:54:19Primed for Dominance
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