Global Market Comments
December 14, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DECEMBER 12 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPX), (MU), (PYPL), (SPOT), (FXE), (FXY), (XLF), (MSFT), (AMZN), (TSLA), (XOM),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS)
Global Market Comments
December 14, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(DECEMBER 12 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(SPX), (MU), (PYPL), (SPOT), (FXE), (FXY), (XLF), (MSFT), (AMZN), (TSLA), (XOM),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader December 12 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader
Q: Is the bottom in on the S&P 500 (SPX) or are we going to go on another retest?
A: It’s stuck right in the 2600-2800 range, and I think that’s probably where we bounce off of 2600 again. The question is whether or not we can clear the top of the range at 2800. If we can’t, I would fully expect a retest of this bottom in which case I could see it going down to 2500.
Q: You say you’ll go 100% cash by Dec 21st but also stated that the S&P 500 will go up 5% by the year's end. Should we stay in until we get the up 5% move?
A: Yes, all of our options positions expire by the 21st but if you’re just long in stocks, I would stay long, probably through the end of the year.
Q: Will the Chinese-U.S. dispute ruin the Tech industry?
A: No, I think the Trump Administration will have to do some kind of deal and call it a victory, otherwise the trade war will pull the U.S. into recession. If we go into the next presidential election with another recession—well, no one has ever survived that. Even with the China-U.S. dispute, the U.S. is still dominant in the Tech industry and will continue to do so for decades to come.
Q: China has managed to duplicate Micron Technology’s (MU) biggest selling chip, undercutting prices—thoughts?
A: True, Micron is the lowest value added of the major chip producers, therefore their stock has gotten hit the worst of any of the chip stocks down by about 46%, but I know Micron very well and they have a whole range of chips they’re currently upgrading, moving themselves up the value change to compete with this. So, that makes it a great company to own for the long term.
Q: I’m up 90% on my PayPal (PYPL) position—should I take a profit?
A: Yes! Absolutely! How many 90% profits have you had lately? You are hereby excused from this webinar to go execute this trade. And well-done Dr. Denis! And thank you for the offer of a free colonoscopy.
Q: What can you say about Spotify (SPOT)?
A: No, thank you—there’s lots of competition in the music streaming business. We are avoiding the entire space. The added value is not great, and many of these companies will have a short life. And with China’s Tencent growing like crazy, life for Spotify is about to become dull, mean, and brutish.
Q: What’s your view on currencies?
A: So you’re looking to make another fortune? Yes, I think the Euro (FXE) and the Yen (FXY) really are looking hard to rally, and the trigger could be dovish language in the next Fed meeting. Once the Fed slows its rate of interest rates rises, the currencies should take off like a scalded chimp.
Q: Will the banks (XLF) rally in the next 6 months for a better sell?
A: Many people are waiting for a rally in the banks so they can unload them and haven’t gotten it—they’re back to pre-election price levels. The issue here is structural, and you don’t get recoveries from major structural changes in an industry. It’s significant that this is the first bull market that had no net new employment in the banks whatsoever; the business is fading away. They are the new buggy whip makers. These gigantic national branch networks will all be gone in ten years because the banks can’t afford them.
Q: Would you enter the Microsoft (MSFT) trade today?
A: I actually think I would; Microsoft only pulled back 10% when everything else was dropping 30%, 40%, or 50%. That shows you how many people are trying to get into this name so if you could take a little short-term pain (like 5%), the stock outright is probably a screaming buy here. I think it’ll go to $200 one day, so here at $110-$111 it looks like a pretty good deal. The story here is that Microsoft is rapidly taking market share from Amazon (AMZN) in the cloud business and that’s going to continue.
Q: When will you be updating your long-term model portfolio?
A: I usually do it at the end of the year, and rarely make any big changes. I’ll still be selling short bonds and still like Tesla (TSLA) and Exxon (XOM).
Q: I just joined your service. What is the best way to get started?
A: I’ll give you the same advice that I gave every starting trader at Morgan Stanley (MS). Start trading on paper only. When you are making money reliably on paper, move up to using real money, but only with one contract per position. When that is successful, slowly increase your size to 2, 3, 5, 10, and 20 contracts. Pretty soon, you will be swinging around 1,000 contracts a lot like I do. The further you move down the learning curve the greater you can increase your size and your risk. If you never get past the paper stage at least it’s not costing you any money.
I hope this helps.
Good luck and good trading.
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Global Market Comments
November 7, 2018
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL ELECTION ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(THROWING RED MEAT TO MY BASE)
(RTN), (LMT), (NOC), (HON), (XOM), (CVX), (DVN)
It turned out to be a category two blue wave, not the Category four or five one Democrats had hoped for.
The Democrats picked up 28 seats in the House of Representatives but lost two in the Senate.
The one-liner here is that the most generous corporate tax cuts in US history are frozen in place for two more years. That is good for the economy and good for stocks.
You have to laugh at some of the stories that started filing in on Tuesday. In Brooklyn, NY election, officials called the fire department to break down the door of the polling place because they had the wrong keys. Polls everywhere ran out of ballots, while others suffered voting machine breakdowns.
Not so here in Nevada where everything ran flawlessly. My smiling face was safely stored in the Washoe County voter database and a backup paper ballot was created for good measure. No Russians here! Nevada now has two Democratic Senators for the first time in history.
Fortunately, I am old enough to have taken a civics class in high school which has not been taught in public schools for decades. A year working in the White House Press Corps (during the Reagan era) gives me additional perspective.
It shows. According to a recent survey, only 27% of Americans can identify all three branches of the federal government (executive, legislative, and the judicial).
The responsibility, therefore, falls to me to explain the outcome of yesterday’s midterm election and the trading and investment implications therein.
With the Democrats winning the House of Representatives and the Republicans controlling the Senate, we are about to enter the golden age of gridlock.
It is now impossible for any new law to be passed at the federal level. The only way it could is if they agreed on something, but so far, the two parties have shown little propensity to do so. They might as well be chalk and cheese.
Even if they did jointly pass a bill, it could still be vetoed by president Trump. Can you really see Donald Trump signing a bill sponsored by Nancy Pelosi? Given his preference for disruption, I would say there is a little chance of that happening.
The Democrats now have a crucial power and that is complete control of the purse strings. If Trump wants to spend anything at all, it can only be with Democratic approval.
It is highly unlikely that the Democrats will not approve ANY expansion of the debt ceiling, given the enormous increases in government spending Trump has inspired.
You can certainly expect the growth of defense spending to slow, if not stop completely, so avoid these stocks like the plague, like Raytheon (RTN), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Honeywell (HON).
This perfectly sets up a number of government shutdowns in the coming two years. Each one of these will bring a 10% stock market correction, but probably not much more. This was the case when Republicans shut down the government under President Obama sometime for weeks.
Control of the Senate isn’t really all that important. Once one branch of government is gone, the legislative calendar grinds to a halt. It does retain for the president the right to appoint judges. But that really involves social issues, not market ones, and will have no market impact. I can’t think of any big business issues coming up before the Supreme Court.
You can count on the House to resurrect the investigation of Russian influence in the 2016 election which was put to sleep with no findings by the Republicans nearly a year ago. On the first day in office, the new Democratic majority will subpoena Donald Trump’s tax returns. Long in hiding like the Loch Ness monster and bigfoot, they will finally see the light of day.
An impeachment motion against Trump will almost certainly pass the House but it won’t be anything more than a symbolic gesture. Without a two-thirds vote in the Senate, it will go nowhere. I doubt it will even come up for a vote.
The House can also use the Congressional Review Act to roll back any Trump administration rule it doesn’t like, which is pretty much all of them. Just last week, Trump said he could overturn a constitutional amendment with an executive order.
Expect the courts to get clogged with litigation on everything. Oil companies will be the big victims here. Avoid Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Devon Energy (DVN). Their free pass on environmental regulation is about to end.
And while the tax cuts have been frozen on place, so is the steep upward trajectory of the growth of government debt. Borrowing is expected to top $1.4 trillion next year, levels not seen since the Great Recession. That means the Golden Age of short selling in the bond market, now 2 ½-year-old, has many more years to run. Keep selling the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) on rallies and buy the (TBT) on dips.
The figures belie the massive leftwing swing that has taken place in the nation. West Virginia went for Trump by 43 points in 2016 but just reelected a Democratic Senator, Joe Manchin. In Colorado, they elected the first openly gay governor. The Republicans only won the Senate in Arizona because the Green Party split the vote, taking 2.2%.
Where Republicans did win, it was only by razor-thin margins, seeing 2016 leads disappear from double digits to tenths of a percent across the country, as we saw in Florida and Texas. That sets up and interesting 2020 where demographic change alone should be enough to tip the balance leftward. Oh, and we will be in recession by then too.
Fortunately, you will be rewarded for your long suffering during the campaign which saw an unwelcome 46% increase in negative advertising. Markets have delivered an average 8.5% return in every fourth quarter since 1980 and are up 89% of the time. Since WWII, every midterm election has generated an eye-popping 14.5% average return in the following 12 months.
And now for the bad news: the 2020 presidential campaign starts tomorrow, and we won’t know who the Democratic candidate is until TWO MONTHS BEFORE THE ELECTION!
Global Market Comments
October 17, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHO WAS THE GREATEST WEALTH CREATOR IN HISTORY?)
(FB), (AAPL), (GOOG), (AMZN),
(XOM), (BRKY), (T), (GM), (VZ), (CCA),
(WHY DOCTORS MAKE TERRIBLE TRADERS?)
Global Market Comments
May 25, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, AUGUST 3, 2018, AMSTERDAM, THE NETHERLANDS GLOBAL STRATEGY DINNER),
(MAY 23 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (SPY), (TSLA), (EEM), (USO), (NVDA),
(GILD), (GE), (PIN), (GLD), (XOM), (FCX), (VIX)
Below please find subscribers' Q&A for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader May 23 Global Strategy Webinar with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader.
As usual, every asset class long and short was covered. You are certainly an inquisitive lot, and keep those questions coming!
Q: Would you short Tesla here?
A: Tesla (TSLA) is on the verge of making the big leap to mass production, so they're in somewhat of an in-between time from a profit point of view, and the burden of proof is on them. Elon Musk is notorious for squeezing shorts. I would not want to bet him.
Musk has been successfully squeezing shorts for 10 years now, from the time the stock was at $16.50 all the way up to $392. So, I would not short Tesla. Buy the car but don't play in the stock; it's really a venture capital play that happens to have a stock listing because so many people are willing to back his vision of a carbon-free economy.
Q: What is your takeaway on the China trade war situation?
A: The Chinese said "no," and that is positive for economic growth. Anything that enhances international trade is good for growth and good for the stock market; anything that damages international trade is bad for corporate earnings and bad for the stock market. So, the China win in the trade war is essentially positive, but I don't think we'll see that reflected in stock prices until the end of the year.
Q: What do you think about Gilead Sciences?
A: I don't really want to touch Gilead (GILD), or the entire sector, for that matter. We shouldn't be seeing such a poor performance at this point in the market. Health care has been dead for a long time, and you would have expected a rally based purely on fundamentals; they are delivering good earnings, it's just not reflected in the price action of the stocks. I think with no new money going into the market, there's nothing to push up other sectors; it's really become a "technology on and off" market. Health care doesn't fit anywhere in that world.
Q: Do you still like Nvidia?
A: I love Nvidia (NVDA). The chip sector still has another year to go. Nvidia has the high value-added product, and I'm looking for $300 dollars a share sometime this year/next year. The reason the stock hasn't really been moving is that it's over-owned; too many people know about the Nvidia story, which continues to go "gangbusters," so to speak. The chairman has also put out negative comments on short-term inventories, which have been a drag.
Q: Treasuries (TLT) are over 3%. Will they go over 3.5% by then end of this year?
A: I would say yes. Since that is only 50 basis points away from the current market, I would say it's a pretty good bet. So, if you get any good entry points you can do LEAPS going out to next year, betting that Treasuries will not only be below $116 by the end of the year, but they'll probably be below 110. And that would give you a very good high return LEAP with a yield of 50% in the next, say 8 months. By the way, if the Treasury yield rises to 4% that takes the (TLT) down to $98!
Q: Any chance General Electric will be acquired this year?
A: Absolutely not. General Electric (GE) worth far more if you break it up into individual pieces and sell them. Some parts are very profitable like jet engines and Baker Hughes, while other parts, like their medical insurance exposure, are awful.
Q: What do you see about the India ETF?
A: The one I follow is the PowerShares India Portfolio ETF (PIN) and we love it long term. Short term, they can take some pain with the rest of the emerging markets.
Q: What should I do with my January 2019 Gold calls?
A: I would sell them. It's not worth hanging on to here with too many other better things to do in stocks.
Q: Would you continue to hold ExxonMobile?
A: I would not. If you were lucky enough to get in at the bottom on ExxonMobile (XOM). I would be taking profits here. I'm not sure how long this energy rally will last, especially if the global economic slowdown continues.
Q: Is Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) a buy?
A: Yes, but only buy the dip in the recent range, so you don't get stopped out when the price goes against you. Commodities are the best performing asset class this year and that should continue.
Q: How high is oil (USO) headed?
A: I think we're probably peaking out short of $80 a barrel currently unless we get a major geopolitical event. Then it could go up to $100 very quickly and trigger a recession.
Q: Are you looking to buy the Volatility Index here?
A: Buy the next dip, but the trick with (VIX) is buying after it sits on a bottom for about five days. You also want to buy it when stocks (SPY) are at the top of a range, like yesterday.
Q: How long do you think the market will be range-bound for?
A: My bet is at least three months, and possibly four or five. We should start to anticipate the outcome of the midterm congressional elections in September/October; that's when you get your upside breakout.
Q: Is Gold (GLD) not worth buying since Bitcoin has taken over market share from Gold buyers?
A: Essentially, yes. That's probably why you're not getting these big spikes in Gold like you're used to. Instead, you're getting them in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is clearly stealing Gold's thunder. That's a major reason why we haven't been chasing Gold this year.
Q: After the emerging market sell-off, is it a good time to go in?
A: No, I think the emerging market (EEM) sell-off is being created by rising interest rates and a strong dollar. I don't see that ending anytime soon. In a year let's take another look in emerging markets. By then overnight Fed funds should be at 2.50% to 2.75%.
Global Market Comments
May 10, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TUESDAY, JUNE 12, NEW ORLEANS, LA, GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE END OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL AND YOUR PORTFOLIO),
(USO), (XOM), (OXY), (CVX), (DAL), (XLP),
(UPGRADING OUR CUSTOMER SUPPORT)
My first contact with Iran was during the horrific 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. I was a war correspondent for The Economist magazine living in the Kuwait Hilton.
Early every morning, hotel staff hurried down to the beach to clean up the remains of shark-eaten bodies that had washed up from the pitched battles overnight. It was essentially a replay of WWI. More than 1 million died, and poison gas was a regular feature of the conflict.
You are either getting killed yourself, or are having a fabulous day today because of the end of the U.S. participation in the Iran Nuclear Deal, depending on your sector exposure.
If you own energy producers, like the oil majors we have been bullish on for several months, including ExxonMobil (XOM), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Chevron (CVX), you are sitting pretty.
If you own energy consumers, such as Delta Airlines (DAL), and Consumer Staples (XLP), which we have been dissing to the nth degree, you are taking it in the shorts.
But what happens beyond today?
For the short term, you can expect nothing to result from the American abrogation of the treaty, which even the administration's own Secretary of Defense, Marine Corps General James Mattis, strongly advised against.
Three years into the agreement, very little trade between Iran and the U.S. actually took place. The big Boeing (BA) aircraft order never showed. American oil companies were gearing up to bid on the reconstruction of Iran's oil infrastructure. But so far it has been all talk and no do.
If you were looking forward to getting a great deal on a new Persian carpet you're out of luck. But there is an ample supply of used ones on the market.
At the end of the day, the Iranians would rather do business with Europe, treaty, or not. It is the natural trading partner, is close, and most of the Iranian leadership was educated at continental universities.
The European Economic Community (EEC) offers far larger export subsidies than the U.S. ever would. Remember, Iran was once a quasi-British colony. And let's face it, Iran never trusted the U.S., given our coddling of the previous Shah.
It is most likely Europe, Russia, and China; the other signatories will continue with the treaty in its current form. China will take all the oil Iran can produce, no questions asked. Russian interests are the same as Iran's, higher oil prices.
Yes, the U.S. has threatened to blacklist any bank financing trade with Iran going forward. There is absolutely no way this will work, unless the U.S. wants to ban American trade with Europe, its largest foreign customer.
If they try it, Fortune 500 companies will land on Washington like a ton of bricks, which earns up to 70% of their earnings from foreign sales. In the end all this will do is cut the U.S. out of the global economy.
Longer term, geopolitical risks will undoubtably rise. Iran will almost certainly ramp up its attempts to overthrow the government of Saudi Arabia, still the largest single source of American oil imports. It also has no cost of continuing mischief in Yemen and Syria. Iran already has a dominant influence in Shiite Iraq, which we fought a war to hand over to them.
Of course, the big winner in all of this is Russia, as it has been with almost everything else recently. Moscow loves higher oil prices, enabling Putin to deliver the higher standard of living he promised in last month's presidential election. It also gives him another opportunity to stick a thumb in America's eye, which he apparently loves to do.
Trump can threaten war all he wants, but the Iranians know this is nothing but a bluff. After 17 years of war in Afghanistan, the U.S. his little appetite for another one. Even though we are officially out of Iraq, it is still a massive drain on the U.S. budget. And we still haven't paid for the last one, unless the Chinese want to lend us more money.
In the end it will depend on how long oil will stay this high. The end of the treaty is worth at least $20 in higher oil prices. If oil continues to appreciate then it brings forward the next recession, possibly by years. Energy is a major component in the inflation calculation, which should now speed up smartly and crush the bond market, bringing higher interest rates.
Rising oil prices, inflation, and interest rates with a flagging global economy? Not good, not good.
While U.S. fracking production is rising, it can't increase fast enough to head off the current oil price spike. Production can't be ramped up faster because the U.S., with production now more than 10 million barrels a day, is oil infrastructure constrained, and much of the new infrastructure that has been added is aimed at increased oil exports, not domestic consumption. It makes a big difference.
And why are we focusing on the country that has zero nuclear weapons, primitive technology, and an economy in free fall, while ignoring the one that has more than 7,000 (Russia)? Will someone please explain that to me? Remember, Iran is a country that still relies on camels and donkeys as a major mode of transportation.
So you can take your nuclear treaty and toss it in the ash can of history. The problem is that it may cost you and your portfolio a lot more than you think.
Meet Your New Earnings Driver
Global Market Comments
April 13, 2018
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(ANNOUNCING THE MAD HEDGE LAKE TAHOE, NEVADA, CONFERENCE, OCTOBER 26-27, 2018),
(APRIL 11 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(TLT), (TBT), (GOOGL), (MU), (LRCX), (NVDA) (IBM),
(GLD), (AMZN), (MSFT), (XOM), (SPY), (QQQ)
Legal Disclaimer
There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
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