You could almost hear the roof blow off the top of the New York Stock Exchange when they announced the October nonfarm payroll. At a mind blowing 271,000, it came in at double the low ball pessimistic estimates.
The headline unemployment rate dropped to 5.0%, a decade low. The 4% handle beckons next month.
Bonds (TLT), the Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS), the Euro (FXE), (EUO), oil (USO), and gold (GLD) crashed.
Banks stocks (KBE), the dollar (UUP) rocketed. Stocks were indifferent, as they already saw this move coming in October.
I have been observing these asset classes and their interrelationships for a half century, and every one is simultaneously pointing to the same conclusion. There is a gigantic ?RISK ON? move unfolding for the rest of 2015, and possibly for the next six months.
If you are one of the many new readers of the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader who only recently just started reading this letter, you can now rush out and buy back all of those stocks you sold at the bottom in August because other newsletters told you to do so, like everyone else.
If you are one of my long-term subscribers, you already knew this was coming and positioned for it accordingly.
GOTTA LOVE THOSE SHORT BOND AND JAPANESE YEN POSITIONS!
There was really no place for the bears to hide in the October numbers.
YOY gains in wages were biggest since July, 2009. Private sector job growth was an eye-popping +268,000. The August and September payroll reports were revised up 12,000.
Business and professional services saw a +78,000 gain. Health care tacked on +45,000 jobs, while retail picked up +44,000. Mining lost -5,000 jobs, as usual.
The truly significant development with this data set was that the broader U-6 unemployment rate finally broke 10% for the first time in eight years, dropping to 9.8%.
The October number RULES OUT ANY CHANCE THAT THE FED WILL NOT RAISE RATES at the December 16-17 meeting.
Now that the economy is clearly strengthening, the global stock markets have stabilized, and a floor has been put under China, the path is clear for two such rate rises.
A new debate will now ensue. Will the Fed accelerate its tightening policy, moving beyond just two modest increases?
PERISH THE THOUGHT!
Here are the implications for your IRA, 401k, and pension fund.
*Stocks - sideways first, then higher. They already anticipated this figure with the heroic rise in October.
*Bonds - Keep falling until the next recession, whenever that is.
*Commodities - down first, then up big.
*Foreign Currencies - fall for another few years.
*Precious Metals - drop to new four year lows.
*Volatility - stays low until the next ?Sell in May.?
*The Ags - put in a bottom and then rise with El Ni?o.
*Real Estate - keeps rising as buyers rush to beat bigger rate increases.
THERE IS A REALLY EXCITING POSSIBILITY NOW SETTING UP FOR THE YEAR END.
Originally I thought that a mid-December rate rise then would trigger a mini correction in the major stock indexes. Today?s nonfarm payroll eliminates that uncertainty, and the correction that went with it.
Instead, we are getting that mini correction now. It will only last several more days. After that, it is UP, UP, AND AWAY.
We could well ring out this year with the markets at the top tick of the year. Now that?s a thought!
Just thought you?d like to know.
