The month of August is now behind us, and it is all over but the crying.
After a heroic effort, I traded the month to a near draw, posting a -0.90% loss, my first red ink of the year.
Never mind that I would have turned positive if August had lasted a single day longer. Never mind that most investors would have given their right arm to be down only -0.90% last month.
You can?t eat relative performance!
Red is red!
As penance, I have begun wearing a hair shirt, am waking up two hours earlier every morning to get ahead of the market, am spending long hours on the phone late at night finding out what really is happening in China, and will not shave my beard until I move back into the green.
So far, I am off to a great start for September, posting a 3.25% return for the first four days of the month.
Dodging and weaving, I sold short the Volatility Index (VIX) through the Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (XIV) when it briefly stuck its head above $32 on Tuesday, and covered it during the vol collapse to $23 two days later.
The real icing on the cake was then pushing out my umpteenth short in the (SPY) of the last four months right at the Thursday market highs.
It helped a lot that I completely nailed the August nonfarm payroll report, which came in at a feeble 173,000, the lowest in months.
Headline unemployment hit an astounding decade low of 5.1%, and is within spitting distance of hitting the 5% forecast I boldly made all the way back in January (click here for my ?2015 Annual Asset Class Review? ).
What?s more, the JOLTS (the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) shows there are 5 million unfilled jobs across the country going begging right now.
Here in California, labor shortages are cropping up almost everywhere. Schools can?t hire teachers. Contractors can?t hire laborers.
The mob of illegals that used to huddle in front of Home Depot (HD) and U-Haul Trailers (UHAL) are gone. They have all found full time jobs with their fake California drivers licenses.
Everyone in my neighborhood is rushing to repair their roofs before the biggest El Nino in history hits in October. But guess what? There is a one-month wait, if a roofer will return your phone call.
And these are the people who were all collecting unemployment four years ago.
I have my guys working weekends to finish my rain harvest system on time so I can tell my local water utility, East Bay MUD, to go screw themselves.
If the Fed doesn?t raise interest rates soon, then we will be looking at a 4% handle for unemployment, and zero interest rates at the same time.
Unbelievable!
August is a particularly squirrelly month to call the nonfarm. It is prone to a very weak initial report, followed by huge upward revisions.
It is those revisions that will trigger a ferocious short covering rally in the fall that will lead the market to new all time highs by yearend.
My friend, legendary technician, Charles Nenner, is calling for a final bottom this month for this nervous breakdown of $1760 in the S&P 500 (SPX).
This calls into question my position in the September $174-$179 vertical bull call spread. But that expires in only eight trading days, and even if Charles turns out to be right, it isn?t going to happen by September 15.
In the meantime, expect volatility to continue, especially at market openings and closes, that to the new bane of our existence, Risk Parity traders (click here for ?Blame it All on the Risk parity Traders?).
That will leave our lives, dull, mean, and brutish for the rest of this month.
But hey, it was you who wanted to be in show business!
Toughen up!
