Yes, I know that the presidential election of 2016 is another two years off. But if you already know the outcome of that contest you can use it to your advantage trading the markets today.
You don?t want to get caught out like many conservatives did in 2012, who were forced to dump stock in a hurry to beat a surprise jump in capital gains taxes after an unexpected Obama win, triggering a 10% market correction.
By the way, that was the last 10% correction we got. It has been straight up from there.
If you have any doubt that Hillary Clinton will be the slam-dunk winner in 2016, take a look at the table below. According to a poll conducted by Quinnpiac University in New Haven, Connecticut, the former Secretary of State beats every Republic front-runner in the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio, often by huge margins.
Notice that the more conservative the candidate, the bigger the losing margin. I have always believed that the United States is a fundamentally moderate, middle of the road country.
Whenever either party leans towards extremes, they are sent to the woodshed, where they are punished severely by the voters. At the end of the day, most Americans just wish that the government would go away.
In another poll I saw Clinton is leading by 60%-40% with Republican women. Democrats are counting on many to cross party lines to vote for the first woman president, as they did for the first black one in 2008. Most other leading, non-partisan polls are reaching the same conclusion.
You can forget about Senator Ted Cruz from Texas because he was born in Canada, with a Canadian father. After carping about Obama being from Kenya for eight years, the last thing the Republicans will do is run another foreigner for president.
So what will President Hillary mean for the market? There?s no point in asking her. Officially, she is not even running yet. She is on the lecture circuit now earning $225,000 a pop. But I have been in touch with some of her recent and past staff people, and the answer seems to be not much.
With our Middle Eastern wars done, Al Qaida a distant memory, the economy going great guns, unemployment down, and the US energy independent, Clinton should inherit a country that is in pretty good shape.
With the economy reaccelerating back to a 3%-4% growth rate, and no new wars, the budget should be close to balancing. The dollar will be endemically strong.
We should be at the threshold of a Pax Americana. In these goldilocks conditions stock portfolios should rise by 10% a year, and 13% with dividends, and inflation will stay under control. Bonds will slowly grind down and interest rates up, but no by much. That works for me.
So, social issues will be the top legislative priority. You can expect to hear a lot about gun control. Assault rifles, especially military ones like the AR-15, and high capacity magazines will become history. You can also count on federal restrictions on the resale of firearms and closer tracking of convicted criminals.
Immigration will be another hot button item. Expect measures to permit the 10 million illegals currently in the country to gain access to citizenship, subject to strict conditions. This is the umpteenth time we have done this in my lifetime.
Clinton will also make an effort to roll back restrictions on voter?s rights now rampant in red states. Ten-hour lines to vote in black neighborhoods in Miami should become a thing of the past. The same will hold true for state restrictions on abortion, such as mandatory ultrasounds.
President Obama did the heavy lifting with financial regulation through Dodd-Frank and with health care in the Affordable Care Act. It will be up to Hillary to implement and enforce existing law, a far easier task. Who knows? The website might even be working by 2016?
The same will be true with tax reform. Obama delivered the big hit when the federal income tax rate jumped from 35% to 39.50%. Clinton will probably only nibble at the edges. It will be hands off for the middle class.
Target number one: the ?carried interest? treatment that assures that most hedge fund managers, like me, pay no more than a 15% annual rate. Capital gains could also see another 5% move.
But with the federal budget balancing, there shouldn?t be any need to raise taxes, unless you want to pay off the $17.5 trillion national debt faster. In any case, that will happen by 2030 under current law, and with improved growth outlook.
Big earners can expect to see their favorite deductions whittled back as well. Home mortgage interest deductibility will get capped at mortgage values of $250,000-$500,000. Limits will be placed on tax-free charitable donations. Company provided health insurance will become fully taxable as regular income, and will eventually get blended in with Obamacare.
The really big impact President Clinton will have on the future of the country will be with her Supreme Court appointments. It is likely that at least one conservative justice will retire or die before the end of her second term in 2024.
That will enable her to shift the 5-4 convective majority to a liberal one for the first time in 50 years. That assures a liberal bent in the Court?s decisions until 2064. After that, I will be long dead, or 112, so I won?t care what happens.
A rapid succession of legal challenges will follow that will eventually bring to an end of gerrymandering of congressional elections and anonymous corporate campaign donations. That will turn Texas, Arizona and several other states into blue ones. Gay rights will reach full equality, if it hasn?t already happened by then.
This has already happened in California. What was the outcome? Radicals on both the right and left were abandoned in droves, as there was no longer any mileage there. Everyone suddenly became a moderate and pragmatist. Gridlock ended, and the government returned to doing the people?s work. Ratings on cable TV talk shows fell.
Who will Hillary bring into her cabinet? I suggest former presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, as the next Secretary of Health and Social Services. He is the only person who has every gotten government provided health care to work in the US, with his highly successful Massachusetts program.
I think it will take ten years to fully implement Obamacare and for it to become actuarially sound. In the end, Obamacare should cost the government nothing, and reduce the cost of health care for the rest of us. That?s how the Lloyds of London insurance exchange functions. A private equity guy should be able to deliver that, right?
So who will be Hillary?s first appointment to the Supreme Court? President Obama will be only 55 when his second term ends and is a constitutional law professor with a proven track record. The kids are already placed in local schools. The only thing he will be need is a new residence. What else is an ex president supposed to do?
The bigger question will be what to do about Bill? Will he be the first husband, the dude, or just another Mr. President.
Mr. and Mrs. President? The possibilities boggle the mind.
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