When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.
Trade Alert - (TLT) – BUY
BUY the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) August 2021 $157-$160 in-the-money vertical Bear Put spread at $2.50 or best
Opening Trade
7-19-2021
expiration date: August 20, 2021
Portfolio weighting: 10%
Number of Contracts = 40 contracts
I am dipping my toe back in the water with only my second bond trade in three months with a very short-dated low-risk position. At this point, with a 1.18% yield, bonds have given up all of their 2021 gains.
If you don’t play options, just go out and buy the ProShares Ultra Short Treasury Bond Fund (TBT) outright.
We have just rallied an eye-popping $25.00 off of the recent $132.20 low for the (TLT). That has taken ten-year US Treasury yields down from 1.76% to 1.18% in four months. Bonds are now assuming that a fourth wave will take us up to a new peak in deaths and force the economy to close down once again.
I don’t think that is going to happen. With 70% of the US population already vaccinated and 10% having immunity from the disease, only 20% are left to get sick. Eventually, ALL of them will get it, but it will not force a second shut down of the economy.
The long-term outlook for fixed income is absolutely awful. The next big rotation in the markets will be for tech and bonds to peak out and for financials to bounce hard off a bottom. This will result from coming major upgrades in economic growth, which analysts and strategists are wildly underestimating.
As soon as everyone gets the parts and labor they want, it is going to be off to the raises. Add to that a Fed taper on monetary stimulus and interest rates will soar. At the very least, they have to stop stimulating the housing market with $40 billion a month's worth of mortgage-backed securities.
With 2021 expected to be one of the strongest years for economic growth in history, there is no chance you’ll see a major rally in the US Treasury bond market from here. The only question is how fast it will fall.
This trade is basically betting that interest rates will rise in front of the biggest borrowing in human history.
I am therefore buying the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) August 2021 $157-$160 in-the-money vertical Bear Put spread at $2.50 or best.
Don’t pay more than $2.70 or this is really not worth doing on a risk/reward basis.
The fundamentals of this trade are very simple. The national debt rose from a record $23 trillion to an eye-popping $28 trillion in 2020. In 2021, it is expected to explode to $32 trillion. The US Treasury demands on the bond market are going to be incredible.
It is almost mathematically impossible for bond prices to rise and interest rates to fall substantially from here. They can only go sideways at best, or down big in the worst case. Sounds like a great short to me.
This is a bet that the (TLT) will not rise above $157.00 by the August 20 option expiration in 20 trading days. To lose money on this position ten-year US Treasury yields would have to plunge to 1.00% from the current 1.30%, which they won’t in 31 days.
Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:
Buy 40 August 2021 (TLT) $160 puts at………….………$10.00
Sell short 40 August 2021 (TLT) $157 puts at……...……$7.50
Net Cost:………………………......….………..…………...….....$2.50
Potential Profit: $3.00 - $2.50 = $0.50
(40 X 100 X $0.50) = $2,000 or 20.00% in 20 trading days.
The Fat Lady is Singing for the Bond Market
If you are uncertain about how to execute an options spread, please watch my training video by clicking here.
The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.
Don’t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.
Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices at best. After the alerts go out, prices can be all over the map.
