When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.
Trade Alert - (TLT) – BUY
BUY the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) August 2022 $123-$126 in-the-money vertical Bear Put spread at $2.60 or best
Opening Trade
7-21-2022
expiration date: August 19, 2022
Portfolio weighting: 10%
Number of Contracts = 40 contracts
I am going to use the monster $2.00 rally in the (TLT) today and the $8.50 rally since June to add a long-dated conservative very deep in-the-money short position in the bond market.
To lose money on this trade, the ten-year US Treasury yield would have to drop from today’s 2.93% to below 2.63% in 21 trading days, which is highly unlikely.
Treasury bonds have in fact been in a steep downtrend that began in the end of November. I expect it to accelerate in the aftermath of the release of the Core Inflation Rate at 8:30 AM on August 10.
People are not taking a 2.93% yield on the ten-year US Treasury bond against an 8.7% inflation rate generating a negative -5.77% real yield because they think it’s a great deal.
I am therefore buying the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) August 2022 $123-$126 in-the-money vertical Bear Put spread at $2.60 or best
Don’t pay more than $2.75 or you’ll be chasing on a risk/reward basis.
The long-term outlook for fixed income is absolutely awful. The next big rotation in the markets will be for tech and financials to bounce hard off a bottom. This will result from coming major upgrades in economic growth, which analysts and strategists are wildly underestimating.
As soon as everyone gets the parts and labor they want, it is going to be off to the races. Add to that a Fed quantitative tightening on monetary stimulus and interest rates will soar.
With the Fed on an announced path of at least 200 basis point in interest rate rises in 2022, there is no chance you’ll see a major rally in the US Treasury bond market from here. The only question is how fast it will fall.
It is almost mathematically impossible for bond prices to rise and interest rates to fall substantially from here. They can only go sideways at best, or down big in the worst case. Sounds like a great short to me.
This is a bet that the (TLT) will not rise above $123.00 by the August 19 options expiration in 21 trading days.
Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:
Buy 40 August 2022 (TLT) $126 puts at………….………$10.00
Sell short 40 August 2022 (TLT) $123 puts at……..……$7.40
Net Cost:………………………….………..………….….............$2.60
Potential Profit: $3.00 - $2.60 = $0.40
(40 X 100 X $0.40) = $1,600 or 16.00% in 21 trading days.
The Fat Lady is Singing for the Bond Market
If you are uncertain about how to execute an options spread, please watch my training video by clicking here.
The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.
Don’t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.
Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices at best. After the alerts go out, prices can be all over the map.
