You really can’t beat the roof of the 14th century Hotel Danieli in Venice for an annual strategy luncheon.
You have a panoramic view of the Grand Canal. The Palace of the Doges is right next door and Saint Marks is around the corner. The canal is packed with every conceivable type of watercraft motoring back and forth.
The water teems with tourist-bearing gondolas filming every moment. How these many conveyances avoid crashing into each other is nothing less than amazing.
Having visited Venice for 54 years, I can tell you that there is something magical in the air. That’s because everyone there is having the greatest time of their lives, including the people who live there.
A hundred years ago, my grandfather passed through on his way to join Ernest Hemingway at the Alpine front in WWI. I first came to town 50 years later in 1968, when most of the tourists were Americans, shacking up in a bargain basement pensione.
The heiress Peggy Guggenheim was still living in her waterfront palace, enjoying the Bohemian lifestyle. Her father went down with the Titanic, so she received her inheritance early. Back then, I lacked the connections and the money to join that elevated social circle.
I was a regular visitor to Venice during the 1980s, flying my twin-engine Cessna direct from London, past the imposing Mont Blanc, and landing at Marco Polo airport. Once a thunderstorm hit me on landing that was so severe, we were stuck on the runway for an hour.
But you never forget that speedboat run from the airport to the city. Never tell your water tax driver you are in a hurry if you want to live to tell about it.
There the kids bought souvenirs and fed the hordes of pigeons. Alas, the pigeons are gone now, banned as a health hazard.
Today, Venice is chock full of Americans once again taking advantage of a Euro (FXE) at 20-year lows. But they are Americans of a different sort. The Danieli was full of incredibly wealthy young couples dressed to the nines and wearing tons of expensive jewelry. They were all Bitcoin billionaires who sold out at the top last year and were drowning in cash.
To say I was welcomed by my guests at the luncheon would be an understatement.
All said they had enjoyed the best investment year of their lives. They also admitted they had never made money in a falling market before. Those committed to the long side, like financial advisors and mutual fund managers, had massively outperformed the indexes. That’s why they flew in from Germany, France, Spain, and Rome.
I told them my story and I’m sticking to it. A weak first half will be followed by a very strong second half. It’s looking like I missed the bottom by two weeks, shares capitulating on June 15 and the Volatility Index (VIX) topping out at $35.
I promise to try harder next time.
Most investors are now sitting on double-digit losses for 2022 and are desperately trying to claw their way back into the market. That’s why it goes up every day. By comparison, Mad Hedge followers are up 57% during the same period.
My other predictions did pretty well too. Inflation has peaked and could be as low as 4% by yearend. Oil prices have also taken a nosedive, thanks to Russia’s catastrophic showing in the Ukraine War.
I finally did get to visit Peggy Guggenheim’s home this year, just one stop on the vaporetto from the Danieli. Now it is a museum featuring her favorite modern artists, most of whom were former lovers.
I did say Bohemian.
I think I’ll try to work in another Venice Strategy Luncheon next year. No Hotel Danieli though as it has been sold to the Four Seasons group and is in for a three-year gutting and modernization. I hope they don’t ruin it.
However, I hear the Orient Express goes to Venice as well. I better get those tuxes back from the dry cleaner!
Piazza San Marco in Venice 1968
Venice in 2022
Grandpa Venice 1918
