The summer doldrums are back!
That is the only conclusion one can draw after observing the market action last week from my mountain lair in Zermatt, Switzerland.
Try as I might, it is impossible to flee this connected world, unless the power is cut off by an avalanche and your batteries die.
As I expected, last week stopped the monster stock market rally in its tracks. Every other asset class behaved accordingly.
Even the most wildly bullish investor has to be deeply concerned about the extreme overbought condition of the market on a short term basis, the incredibly narrow focus of buyers on a handful of names, and the utter lack of volume.
The bears have to be worried abut the failure of the of the market to selloff last week in the face if such sky high valuation parameters.
The S&P 500 (SPY) begrudgingly gave up a few points. Ten year Treasury bonds (TLT) suffered a much more serious seven-point hickey. Oil (USO) dove. Gold (GLD) flat lined. The Japanese Yen (FXY) churned.
But what else would you expect with someone like Donald Trump sucking all the oxygen out of the room?
And here?s the bad news. Next week, another political party will repeat the feat. Financial markets will react accordingly.
In other words, they won?t react at all.
We might get some nice month end mark ups on Friday to assure managers have some decent performance numbers to report.
That?s if anyone is around to notice.
This is definitely the week of the ?B? Team, with senior decision makers on risk and asset allocations more likely to be found in Southampton, New York, Newport Beach, California, or Cannes, France.
It?s not like they?ll be missing anything, as this coming week is relatively devoid of significant economic data, except for one big one.
At 10:30 AM EST on Monday, July 25, we get a peak of how seriously the oil collapse is affecting the rest of the Texan economy with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey.
I?m looking for continued weakness, as shocks of this magnitude, like the oil crash, take years to work themselves out.
On Tuesday, July 26 at 9:00 AM Eastern the S&P 500 Case Shiller Home Price Index should deliver a housing market going from strength to strength.
As this is a three-month lagging indicator, the benefits of the ultra-low interest rates brought to us by Brexit won?t be apparent for another few months.
The big event of the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee decision on overnight interest rates, out at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday, July 27.
Any action, other than a change of a word or two in their public statement, is highly unlikely. This cautious group of people is highly focused on the negative economic impact of Brexit and a strong dollar that are still unfolding.
Thursday, July 28, will be dominated by the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 EST. It is unlikely that we will see a break down to a new 43-year low during the traditional summer slowdown.
Friday, July 29 at 8:30 AM brings us another look at Q2 Real GDP. These pre-Brexit estimates should continue to deliver a clear uptrend.
The bottom line here is that we should be setting up for a 4% correction in stocks in August.
If that happens, surely load the boat with risk, as we are headed for higher highs in everything going into the presidential election and the yearend.
