Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
December 8, 2020
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(IS THIS STOCK A DISCOUNT TO MODERNA?)
(NVAX), (MRNA), (PFE), (BNTX), (AZN), (JNJ), (MSFT)
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
December 8, 2020
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(IS THIS STOCK A DISCOUNT TO MODERNA?)
(NVAX), (MRNA), (PFE), (BNTX), (AZN), (JNJ), (MSFT)
Eighteen months ago, an unknown vaccine developer called Novavax (NVAX) confronted an existential terror: getting delisted by the NASDAQ stock index.
This threat came on the heels of the company’s second failed vaccine study in less than three years, plunging Novavax shares to less than $1 for 30 straight days and triggering a warning from NASDAQ.
Desperate to keep the company going, Novavax sold two of its manufacturing plants in Maryland, cutting the payroll by over 100 employees.
By January 2020, Novavax only had 166 employees in its roster and was priced at $4 per share.
By December of the same year, Novavax more than tripled its workforce and the stock has risen to $128 per share.
What a difference a year—and a global pandemic—could make.
To date, Novavax stock has already skyrocketed to over 3,000%—shattering even the wildest dreams of its early investors. And this isn’t the best news yet.
Like Moderna (MRNA), another small biotechnology that skyrocketed this year, Novavax is projected to enjoy more room for growth in the succeeding years.
Despite the similarities in their achievements, there has been a notably sizable gap between the valuations of these two biotechnology companies in the Operation Warp Speed list.
The valuation gap would probably make more sense now, especially since Moderna has the golden ticket when it comes to high efficacy results for the COVID-19 vaccine, while Novavax has yet to prove its candidate’s worth.
However, Novavax isn’t out of the race just yet. Novavax plans to end 2020 with a bang by launching pivotal COVID-19 vaccine trials for its candidate, NVX-CoV2373, in the US and Mexico.
While the old saying, “The early bird gets worm,” is frequently accurate and we’ve seen how first-movers generally attain the highest success, this may not be the case here.
In view of the COVID-19 vaccine race, there’s a realistic possibility that Novavax will come out as a bigger winner than Pfizer (PFE) or Moderna (MRNA) in the long run.
Admittedly, it’s encouraging for vaccine developers to know that RNA vaccines, such as Pfizer and BioNTech’s (BNTX) BNT162b2 and Moderna’s mRNA-1273, are effective.
It’s definitely even more encouraging to learn that the second type of vaccine, which is being developed by AstraZeneca (AZN) and Oxford, also offer successful trials.
However, the potential of Novavax’s vaccine candidate proves that there are many ways to skin the cat.
This protein-based vaccine, which also caught the attention of Microsoft (MSFT) co-founder Bill Gates, is expected to show the best results among all the developers.
Although its competitors are months ahead in their tests, NVX-CoV2373 actually outshone the rest of the developers on key metrics in the monkey and even human tests.
Moreover, Novavax’s technology offers versatility, which means it can be applied to other vaccines and treatments as well.
If NVX-CoV2373 gains approval, the company will easily continue this momentum in 2021 and in the next years.
The market opportunity presented by the demand for a COVID-19 vaccine is unbelievable.
Priced at $16 per dose, Operation Warp Speed shelled out $1.6 billion to buy 100 million doses of the Novavax vaccine.
Considering that this is a two-shot vaccine, this would only cover 50 million people.
Although the price may be higher or lower depending on various factors, $16 per dose is a good starting point for a back-of-the-envelope calculation.
What we know so far is that Novavax has already secured agreements to manufacture more than 2 billion doses.
Taking into consideration the price point of $16 for each dose, that easily gives the company a potential revenue of a whopping $32 billion in 2021.
The upside is surreal.
Plus, we still have no guarantee whether the need for a COVID-19 vaccine will be a one-time requirement or a yearly ritual like flu shots, which Novavax also has covered with the production of its new drug, Nanoflu.
As the market continues to swoon over the huge updates from Pfizer and Moderna, it no longer comes as a surprise when other candidates are glossed over.
Novavax isn’t about to start selling its COVID-19 vaccine tomorrow, but it’ll probably release critical data in the next months.
Assuming that it gets regulatory approval by the first half of 2021, it’ll begin to realize the upside almost instantaneously.
At $8 billion market capitalization, Novavax stock could easily triple to $24 billion by the time the vaccine is released.
I believe Novavax offers a potential long, and I find myself getting bullish on this stock.
Although it has a limited pipeline at the moment, I think positive data from its COVID-19 vaccine candidate will serve as a catalyst for this stock to trade much higher in the future.
While I can see that Novavax is widely considered as a dark horse in this race, I believe it’s going to be a dark horse that can lead us out of this darkness soon.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
December 3, 2020
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(IT’S TIME TO JOIN THE COVID-19 VACCINE BANDWAGON)
(PFE), (BNTX), (MRNA), (NVAX), (AZN), (JNJ), (MRK)
In the history of corporate ventures, Pfizer (PFE) is one of the select few that can claim that their contributions genuinely contribute to the betterment of mankind.
This giant biopharmaceutical company has rapidly developed a promising vaccine candidate for the deadly COVID-19—an achievement that could potentially put an end to the global pandemic that has transformed 2020 into an apocalyptic year.
To date, Pfizer and its partner BioNTech (BNTX) have submitted the vaccine, BNT162b2, to the FDA for review—a move that could take us all a step closer to returning to our normal everyday lives, where we can be with our friends and loved ones without fretting over deadly infections.
If BNT162b2 gains approval, Pfizer and BioNTech can start the distribution by Christmas.
As expected, the COVID-19 vaccine will provide a quick and substantial boost to the company’s revenue this year.
Outside its COVID-19 program, Pfizer has a number of blockbuster treatments that have been generating steady growth despite the health and financial crises this year.
At the top of the list are breast cancer drug Ibrance and stroke and blood clot medication Eliquis. Other stars of Pfizer’s strong lineup include rheumatoid arthritis medication Xeljanz, heart failure treatment Vyndaqel, and prostate cancer drug Xtandi.
In terms of its pipeline, Pfizer has at least six programs queued for regulatory approval and an additional 21 candidates undergoing late-stage trials.
While Pfizer and BioNTech are leading the charge in the COVID-19 vaccine race, this is not necessarily a winner-take-all-market.
Days after Pfizer announced the results of its trials, fellow vaccine developer Moderna (MRNA) also released promising data. Another biotechnology company, Novavax (NVAX), has been sending out impressive results as well.
Even AstraZeneca (AZN), which has been working with Oxford, offered good news despite the delays in its own trials.
Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Merck (MRK) have been making progress in their own COVID-19 programs as well.
However, there’s a crucial role played by Pfizer’s success.
It introduced to us the possibility of jumpstarting a vaccine program and shortening the development period that typically takes at least 10 to 15 years to complete.
More impressively, Pfizer has managed to come up with a vaccine with 95% efficacy – an amazing feat considering that 90% to 95% of vaccine trials tend to fail from the very beginning.
Most importantly, Pfizer’s recent results showed that we can now explore new options in vaccine development.
Taking BNT162b2 into consideration, this program opened doors for treatments created based directly on the molecular and even genetic structure of viruses.
Needless to say, Pfizer is a compelling stock to buy at a time when it is the norm to complain about having nothing to purchase at a reasonable price.
Additionally, Pfizer shares offer a dividend yield of 4.2% – a major advantage in a financial market that appears to be starved for any sort of security.
For those patient enough, the current conditions look to be ripe to use options to make the most of the short-term volatility to position yourselves for long-term gains.
By selling puts and buying calls, you can get the options market to pay them to purchase stock at cheaper prices and even participate in any rallies.
With Pfizer stock priced at around $36.18 these days, you can sell the January $36 put and buy the January $38 call for a credit of roughly 60 cents.
If Pfizer stock rallies, then you profit.
If the stock falls, then you can just buy it at the put strike price, although at a minimal discount because of the credit, or simply cover the put and move on.
If Pfizer stock hits $43 at the January expiration though, the call would be worth $5.
This risk-reversal plan is based on the prediction that good things are expected to happen to Pfizer—and to the world—soon.
Obviously, the key risk is that the stock rolls over and falls before the January expiration.
Given the new COVID-19 vaccine, however, that seems highly unlikely.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
December 1, 2020
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(BET LIKE WARREN BUFFETT)
(MRK), (BRK.A), (AAPL), (JPM), (GILD), (PFE), (ABBV)
Warren Buffett’s moves via Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) showed some telling signs this third quarter.
For one, the Oracle of Omaha has surprisingly trimmed his holdings in Apple (AAPL) and even JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
Another telltale sign that change is coming can be seen in his positions in biopharmaceutical titans.
Let’s take a closer look at one of the three biggest biopharma investments of Berkshire to date: Merck.
While the New Jersey-based pharmaceutical titan has not been as widely reported as its counterparts in the COVID-19 race, Merck has actually been working on a promising coronavirus program.
In fact, the company is part of the first five COVID-19 programs included in Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed.
Just last week, the company added another promising COVID-19 treatment to its pipeline via the $425 million cash acquisition of Oncolmmune—a move that would give Merck access to the privately-owned company’s COVID-19 treatment, called CD24Fc.
If successful, CD24Fc will be a powerful treatment for mild to severe cases of COVID-19.
To date, only Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Veklury has received FDA approval and even that treatment failed to address all the health concerns.
In comparison, CD24Fc is expected to undergo a smooth sailing journey from clinical trials to its market launch in 2021.
Meanwhile, Merck may have another ace in the hole with its COVID-19 program.
While the company is already months behind the frontrunners, Merck has a competitive advantage over the COVID-19 vaccine candidates submitted by Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), and even AstraZeneca (AZN).
Its experimental COVID-19 vaccine does not require any freezing.
This means that unlike the candidates of Pfizer and Moderna, Merck’s vaccine does not need ultra-special handling and transportation.
On top of that significant advantage, Merck has been working with the nonprofit organization International AIDS Vaccine Initiative to develop a COVID-19 vaccine that only requires a single dose.
In contrast, the leading candidates today require two shots of their vaccines to become effective.
Apart from betting big on its COVID-19 program, Merck is also upping the stakes in its oncology pipeline.
Its recent move is the $2.75 billion acquisition of VelosBio—a partnership that adds another potent arrow to Merck’s already powerful quiver of cancer drugs.
This deal with VelosBio provides Merck with access to cancer treatments under development. Most of these home in on the deadly cancer cells but manage to spare the patients from several horrible side effects.
Prior to this, Merck shelled out $1 billion to gain an equity stake in Seagen (SGEN). The deal also grants Merck access to an extensive antibody drugs pipeline.
Aside from its oncology-related acquisitions—all of which have been home runs for its investors—Merck’s existing cancer pipeline has been consistent moneymakers.
Apart from lung cancer treatment Keytruda, which generated a whopping $11.9 billion in sales in 2019 alone, Merck has a virtually unbeatable arsenal against cancer.
In fact, its thyroid cancer drug Lenvima, which was initially approved for thyroid cancer in 2015, already expanded its indications to cover renal cell carcinoma and potentially even melanoma, endometrial cancer, NSCLC, and bladder cancer.
This could bring Keytruda-like success for Merck in the future.
Aside from Merck, Warren Buffett also invested in biopharmaceutical titans Pfizer and AbbVie.
As of September, Berkshire Hathaway holds 3.7 million Pfizer shares, 21.3 million AbbVie shares, and 22.4 million Merck shares.
These moves are especially noteworthy since the company has not owned any of these biopharma giants at the end of June.
Looking at the profile of these companies, there is no obvious connection or theme.
As discussed, Merck is heavily investing in its oncology pipeline.
AbbVie has been busy diversifying and building a pipeline independent from its megablockbuster Humira.
In fact, this biopharmaceutical giant has delved into dermatology with its massive acquisition of Allergan, aka the Botox-maker.
Meanwhile, Pfizer has been in the news thanks to its COVID-19 vaccine.
Aside from its coronavirus program, Pfizer has been focused on completing the merger between its Upjohn unit and generic drugmaker Mylan (MYL) to form a new company, called Viatris.
Analyzing all three closely though, one thing becomes clear: They are trading off their all-time highs and have been doing it for the entire 2020.
Do you know what that means?
Warren Buffett has been bargain shopping.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
October 29, 2020
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
ROCHE ENTERS COVID-19 FIGHT IN STYLE
(RHHBY), (REGN), (GILD), (MRK), (ALNY), (IONS)
Roche (RHHBY) is making quite an entrance in the COVID-19 antiviral treatment race, forking out $350 million in cash to gain rest-of-the-world rights to a promising new drug created by Massachusetts-based biotech company Atea Pharmaceuticals.
This is an exciting development because the partnership between the two companies holds incredible promise in the search for a COVID-19 cure.
In May, Atea Pharmaceuticals essentially dropped all its projects and rebranded itself as a COVID-19 fighter, attracting a stunning $215 million in its venture round.
Among the marquee names that invested in this 7-year-old biotechnology company are Bain Capital and RA Capital.
Going back to its work with Roche, the $350 million cash is expected to fund the ongoing clinical trials of Atea’s very own COVID-19 antiviral treatment called AT-527.
So far, the candidate is in its Phase 2 trial and slated to start global trials or Phase 3 by early 2021.
Apart from being a potential COVID-19 treatment, AT-527 is also under development as a Hepatitis C medication.
In terms of where AT-527 stands in the COVID-19 treatment race, this drug belongs to the same class as Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Remdesivir and Merck’s experimental candidate with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics called MK-4482.
Like Remdesivir and MK-4482, Roche’s AT-527 is designed to inhibit the replication of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
Unlike Remdesivir though, which is only available through intravenous infusion, AT-527 is an oral drug, making it a more convenient option.
This isn’t the first time that Roche’s COVID-19 efforts came under the spotlight.
Earlier this month, its COVID-19 work with Regeneron (REGN), called REGN-COV2, has been dubbed as a leading candidate in the race because of the high-profile patient who used it: President Donald Trump.
This partnership with Regeneron is expected to ramp up the manufacturing process by at least 3 and a half times compared to their individual capacities.
Outside its COVID-19 efforts, Roche has proven to be a good long-term investment.
Admittedly, the company’s third-quarter report missed the mark by 4% due to aggressive biosimilar competition. However, Roche’s pipeline of newer products has been growing nicely.
Because of biosimilar competition, sales of cancer and immuno-oncology treatments like Avastin fell by 30%, Rituxan slipped by 33%, and Herceptin dropped by 38%.
However, the performance of Roche’s new drug lineup showed promising results, with sales of these products showing off a 32% growth in the third quarter of 2020.
For example, sales of multiple sclerosis drug Ocrevus rose by 37%, while revenue from cancer treatments like Perjeta climbed 17%, Kadycla rose by 33%, and Tecentriq jumped by 49%. Meanwhile, sales of hemophilia medication Hemlibra increased by 57% .
All in all, the hits and misses cancelled out each other this quarter.
Despite the disappointment in these results, Roche stood by its full fiscal year guidance.
This is a strong indicator that the company sees a brighter fourth quarter. Overall, Roche remains in good shape.
Tecentriq has been expanding to cater to other indications such as liver cancer and even some immuno-oncology applications.
Hemlibra continues to outperform its peers, holding on to 25% of the US market share for Hemophilia-A. Even Ocrevus has been outperforming others.
Regarding pipeline developments, Roche has been pouring resources for the trials of NASH drug candidate Crovalimab, which is now in Phase 3.
The acquisition of Inflazome in September and Enterprise Therapeutics in October indicate that Roche is looking to expand in the cystic fibrosis space as well.
Its recently inked agreement with Dyno Therapeutics also signals its plans to work on gene therapies, making itself a potential threat to the likes of biotechnology companies Alnylam (ALNY) and Ionis (IONS).
Looking at everything it has done and has yet to offer, I believe that Roche shares are undervalued at below the high $40s.
This company has a healthy lineup and promising R&D strategies combined with the capacity to buy high-potential assets.
I can see the company generating mid-single-digit cash flow growth on a long-term basis, and I even expect additional improvements to the dividend.
Given the returns you can get from Roche, I can say that this stock is very much worth consideration for any investor interested in quality growth.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
October 8, 2020
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:
(CAN REGENERON TRUMP OTHER COVID-19 RIVALS?)
(REGN), (GILD), (SNY), (JNJ), (MRK)
If the experimental COVID-19 treatment of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) is good enough for the US president, then this stock should be given more attention not only by the media but also by investors.
One of the biggest stories this October is that President Donald Trump got infected with COVID.
The bigger story for the stock market though is his choice of treatment.
According to his medical team, Trump was given Regeneron’s antibody cocktail, called REGN-COV2, which was actually developed based on the same technology used in the company’s experimental Ebola treatment.
Although REGN-COV2 is still in the trial phase, reports that Trump already beat COVID just three days since his diagnosis are doing wonders for the stock.
Apart from REGN-COV2, Trump also received Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) Remdisivir as well as dexamethasone, a common generic steroid he once touted as a “miracle COVID-19 cure.”
The president was given aspirin and famotidine, which is more widely known as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Merck’s (MRK) Pepcid.
On top of these, he took zinc, Vitamin D, and two immune-boosting supplements.
Compared to how far Gilead’s Remdesivir has gone in terms of offering treatment to COVID-19 patients with severe symptoms, Regeneron’s candidate is nowhere near the finish line.
Among all these drugs, however, Regeneron enjoyed the most advantage, with its stocks rising to roughly 5% since the announcement. Gilead also experienced a boost from the news, with a 3% jump.
What does this mean for investors?
Well, this news triggered aggressive buying of Regeneron shares. As expected, the unusually heavy volume pushed the stock price up.
While it would be tempting to join the market mob in buying a hot stock in the hopes of it getting even hotter, you might want to consider switching gears instead.
Hot stocks that dominate the news tend to cool and end up sliding at some point.
Rather than buying Regeneron stock right now, think about buying its bullish call options.
Options are always cheaper than their associated stock, which means you’ll be less at risk if something happens that lowers the stock price.
Even if the stock continues to advance, investing in options will still ensure that you get a nice return.
After all, each options contract represents 100 shares of stock.
To date, Regeneron’s stock is up 7.2% at $605.
That means you should buy bullish November $600 call options for roughly $40 with the expectation that REGN-COV2 gets approved—or at least stays as a strong contender until the next earnings report.
Since Regeneron released its 2019 third-quarter earnings report on November 5, it’s reasonable to assume that the company will follow the same timeline for 2020.
Therefore, setting the expiration to November ensures that you cover its third-quarter earnings report this year.
Aside from that, you’ll have enough time to gauge the success of REGN-COV2 and how the results will affect the stock price.
If the company’s share price reaches $665 at the expiration date, which is its peak price in the past 52 weeks, the call would be worth $65. If it hits $700, then the call will be worth $100.
For context, Regeneron stock has been anywhere between $279.22 and $664.64 in the past 52 weeks.
If REGN-COV2 gains approval, its projected 2021 sales could reach $1.8 billion. Meanwhile, its 2022 sales could hit $2.4 billion, with a decline to $1.7 billion by 2023.
Outside its COVID-19 efforts, the company has a promising portfolio to keep investors interested.
Regeneron’s annual revenue for its marketed drugs has been consistently climbing since 2012, with the biotechnology company’s earnings beating estimates in the last four quarters.
At the moment, the company has over 30 programs in its pipeline, 9 of which are in Phase 3, ensuring that its portfolio still has so much room for growth.
At the height of the pandemic, Regeneron maintained its stellar balance sheet in the second quarter.
One of its top-selling drugs is atopic dermatitis medication Dupixent, which it developed with Sanofi (SNY), with $770 million in sales for that period alone.
Looking at the drug’s track record, Dupixent is projected to rake in $6.3 billion in sales in 2021.
However, the top performer in the second quarter is eye injection Eylea, which contributed $1.1 billion in sales.
Meanwhile, skin cancer treatment Libtayo generated $63 million and cardiovascular disease drug Praluent raked in $47 million.
Regeneron also finished the second quarter with $943 million in net cash flow, which is a massive jump from the $188 million it reported in the same period in 2019.
On top of Regeneron raking in huge rewards for ’s COVID-19 treatment if approved, the company also has other promising products in its portfolio—ones that can still sway investors in their favor regardless of REGN-COV2’s future.
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