Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
September 1, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(RACE TO THE FINISH LINE)
(PFE), (BNTX), (MRNA), (AZN), (INO), (ZTS), (MYL)
Posts
One of the leading companies in the COVID-19 vaccine race is getting closer to the finish line.
Pfizer (PFE) shocked the scientific community when it announced that it would be ready to submit its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, for FDA approval by October.
The company said that it is now more than 50% done with the recruitment for its Phase 3 clinical trial, which requires 30,000 volunteers.
Earlier this year, Pfizer and its vaccine partner BioNTech (BNTX) were included in the US government’s Operation Warp Speed project. Although the two rejected government funding, their candidate is still included in the fast-track priority list of the FDA.
To date, the US government already secured a contract with Pfizer and BioNTech for 600 million doses of their vaccine, with the initial payment of $1.95 billion for the first 100 million doses.
Other countries across the globe have also shown faith in the science of Pfizer.
The UK government completed a deal with Pfizer for 30 million doses, while Japan ordered 120 million doses.
Since it has been preparing its manufacturing facilities while also conducting its trials, Pfizer is confident that it can produce 1.3 billion doses of BNT162b2 in 2021.
Given this timeline, it is possible for the company to launch its COVID-19 vaccine to the market by the fourth quarter of 2020, with peak sales of the product reaching $1.7 billion in 2021.
Revenue for BNT162b2 is expected to slide to $850 million by 2023, with the vaccine raking in an average of $500 million to $600 million in annual sales by then.
However, there is no such thing as a perfect solution.
A potential competitive disadvantage of Pfizer’s vaccine candidate lies in its storage requirements, which entail a storage temperature of −94°F.
While tertiary hospitals and laboratories can meet this requirement, it would make it difficult for traditional offices or pharmacies to store the product.
This shortcoming might prompt other governments and private institutions to consider other vaccine candidates with simpler storage requirements.
Although the results have yet to be released, early data show that competitors like Moderna (MRNA), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Inovio Pharmaceutical (INO) might offer less complicated solutions.
Outside its widely publicized COVID-19 vaccine efforts, Pfizer has been working on additional spinoffs to boost and diversify its revenue stream.
Investors of the company would agree that Pfizer is the kingpin of spinoffs.
A prime example of this is its animal healthcare Zoetis (ZTS) spinoff, which was established in 2013. Since then, the investors have experienced impressive returns with over 289% yields.
Now, Pfizer is aiming to replicate this feat with the $195 billion merger of its own off-patent and generic drugs unit Upjohn with Pennsylvania-based company Mylan (MYL).
The two companies are slated to form a mega-company, called Viatris, where Pfizer stakeholders will also receive shares.
Looking at its portfolio and pipeline candidates, Viatris is projected to generate approximately $19 billion to $20 billion in annual revenue and record $4 billion in free cash flow.
On top of the Viatris spinoff, Pfizer is also working on the Nasdaq IPO of Cerevel Therapeutics.
This is an interesting move from Pfizer since Cerevel is a neuroscience company, which focuses on diseases of the central nervous system like Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and epilepsy.
Pfizer owns 25% stake of the neuro company while Bain Capital holds 75%. The two established Cerevel in 2018.
Just last July, Cerevel announced its merger with Arya Sciences Acquisition Corp II.
When the merger is finalized, the new company will be called Cerevel Therapeutics Holdings and will be under the ticker symbol “CERE” in Nasdaq. The deal is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter of 2020.
Although it will be a relatively unknown and new company, Cerevel is expected to receive at least $445 million to use for its growth by the end of the year.
Needless to say, this is expected to be another “Zoetis-in-the-making” strategy from Pfizer.
For 2020, Pfizer raised its revenue guidance and estimates that it can generate somewhere between $48.6 billion and $50.6 billion while recording an earnings per share of roughly $2.85 and $2.95.
Looking at its balance sheet, Pfizer has proven itself capable of weathering one of the most debilitating downturns since The Great Depression.
In fact, the company amassed revenue of $12 billion and showed off a respectable 12% operational growth in its biopharma unit in the first three months of this year.
In its second quarter earnings report, when the COVID-19 pandemic was already well underway, Pfizer raked in $11.8 billion in revenue.
With all the publicity surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine efforts, it is understandable that investors are buying at artificially high prices. However, Pfizer remains incredibly undervalued.
Pfizer’s star power would inevitably surge if BNT162b2 proves to be safe and effective. Even without the vaccine though, the company’s diverse portfolio and impressive acquisition strategies already make it a great buy.
Plus, its healthy dividend, which yields approximately 3.9%, is no doubt the icing on the cake for this incredibly undervalued stock.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
August 25, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LET THE VACCINE PRICING WARS BEGIN)
(MRNA), (MRK), (PFE), (BNTX), (AZN), (JNJ), (NVAX), (SNY)
The COVID-19 vaccine race is winding down to its final lap, with at least seven candidates already undergoing Phase 3 trials.
Now, one question inevitably arises: How much will these vaccines cost?
Moderna (MRNA), one of the frontrunners in this race, revealed that its vaccine, mRNA-1273. will be priced somewhere between $32 and $37 for each dose.
The moment this pricing was announced, health advocates were up in arms to point out the high price of the vaccine especially with the funding Moderna received from the US government.
However, the company clarified that this would only apply to “small-volume” transactions.
According to Moderna, the pricing for their coronavirus vaccine should be viewed in two phases: the pandemic and the endemic periods.
During the pandemic period, the coronavirus vaccine would be given a price “well below” its actual value. The pricing will change and eventually be more in line “with other innovative commercial vaccines” when the crucial period passes.
For reference, flu shots are typically priced somewhere between $50 to $120 depending on the clinic while a single-dose HPV vaccine from companies like Merck (MRK) can cost up to $235.
Despite the clamor to further investigate this pricing scheme, Moderna sealed another deal with the US government worth $1.525 billion if the company succeeds in meeting its promised timeline.
This will translate to roughly $100 million doses.
It also stands to gain an additional $8.125 billion in follow-up doses plus the $300 million bonus if it can score an FDA approval by January 31, 2021.
Another frontrunner in this coronavirus vaccine race is Pfizer (PFE).
Among the healthcare and biotechnology companies working on a vaccine, Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech (BNTX) are reported to have the most lucrative contract with the federal government to date.
The company recently sealed a $1.95 billion deal for 100 million doses. This puts Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine at roughly $20 per dose.
Both vaccine candidates from Pfizer and Moderna require two doses.
In comparison, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has a “one-and-done” vaccine candidate. That is, the Ad26.COV2-S showed potential that it could only require a single dose.
This is definitely a competitive edge as it will eventually be a cheaper and more convenient alternative to the two-dose vaccine offered by its competitors.
In terms of pricing, JNJ recently landed a $1 billion contract with the US government to deliver 100 million doses. This translates to $10 per dose.
However, AstraZeneca (AZN) appears to be the favored candidate by the US government.
In fact, recent reports suggest that the Trump administration is considering bypassing normal regulatory standards in the UK to fast track the delivery of the vaccine candidate to the US — all before election day.
What we know so far is that AstraZeneca, which is developing its vaccine in collaboration with the University of Oxford, signed a deal with the US government worth $1.2 billion.
This will amount to 300 million doses of their vaccine candidate, which puts the cost of each dose to roughly $4. At this price point, AstraZeneca offers the cheapest option.
Meanwhile, small-cap biotechnology company Novavax (NVAX) recently signed a similar deal with the government.
The Maryland-based company agreed to manufacture 100 million doses of its vaccine for $1.6 billion. This works out to approximately $16 per dose.
Next to Moderna, Novavax’s journey this year has been considered a “Cinderella story” by a lot of investors.
The company ended 2019 all banged up, with the biotechnology stock falling by almost 90%, thanks to its failed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine candidate.
However, Novavax rose from the ashes following the encouraging results of its late-stage study for NanoFlu, another vaccine candidate.
By March 2020, Novavax’s flu vaccine released promising data that put NanoFlu in direct competition against Sanofi’s (SNY) flu vaccine Fluzone Quadrivalent.
Riding the momentum of their success with NanoFlu, Novavax joined the COVID-19 vaccine race with NVX‑CoV2373.
While companies like Pfizer, Moderna, JNJ, and AstraZeneca have been gaining media attention, an increasing number of health experts and analysts are claiming that Novavax’s candidate might just be the best in class.
Outside the companies under Trump’s Operation Warp Speed, China’s state-owned company, Sinopharm, also announced the pricing for its COVID-19 vaccine candidates.
The pricing is quite higher than those put forward by other vaccine developers, with the Beijing company quoting $145 for two doses.
Aside from China, Russia also has a vaccine candidate expected to be out in the market soon.
Vladimir Putin claims that Russia’s coronavirus vaccine candidate is similar to the one created by AstraZeneca and Oxford University.
No information has been given on either the results of the vaccine’s late-stage trials or its pricing.
To date, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recorded 7 vaccine candidates undergoing Phase 3 clinical trials, while there are 15 more going through Phase 2 expanded safety trials.
An additional 25 candidates are currently under Phase 1 small-scale trials plus another 138 pre-clinical candidates slated for human trials soon.
The development and success of at least one coronavirus would undoubtedly reverse the economic and financial damage brought by the pandemic. Hopefully, that time will come soon.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
August 18, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MORE DARK HORSES IN THE COVID-19 VACCINE RACE)
(CVAC), (MRNA), (BNTX), (PFE), (GSK), (AZN), (JNJ), (NVAX)
Global Market Comments
August 14, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AUGUST 12 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A),
(GLD), (TLT), (TSLA), (AAPL), (FB), (AMZN), (VXX), (VIX), (JPM), (BAC), (GDX), (NUGT), (MRNA), (BRK/B), (SLV), (FCX)
Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the August 12 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Lake Tahoe, NV with my guest and co-host Bill Davis of the Mad Day Trader. Keep those questions coming!
Q: I just joined your service. Can you explain the logic to your current model trading portfolio?
I always try to balance long positions with short position. That greatly mitigates the risk of an out-of-the-blue crash, like we saw in February. Also, every individual position has a long and short, further reducing volatility. And you never can lose more money than you put up, so your risk is defined. That’s another classic risk control measure.
There is a further four hedge in that the portfolio is spread across all asset classes. So, I am long banks (JPM), (BAC), short US Treasury bonds (TLT), short a basket of big tech stocks (AAPL), (AMZN), (FB) and long gold (GLD). Something is always working where you can take profits. Our proprietary Mad Hedge Market Timing Index is always a big help in judging the best time to enter and exit these asset classes.
That is the short course on hedge fund risk management 101.
Q: Is it a good time to add in gold (GLD) here?
A: Yes, my long-term target for gold is $3,000/oz, possibly higher—it’s very common once you get a breakout from a 7-year bottoming process to get a big move like that. You always go back and retest that breakout level, that’s what’s happening now. I would use this dip to buy gold. You can look at (GLD) itself, the (GDX) gold miners which will give you 4:1 leverage over gold, or any of the 2x or 3x gold leveraged ETFs like (NUGT). There are lots of ways to play gold this time left from over the last bull market in gold ten years ago. So yes, bullish on gold with a temporary pullback in store. This recovery trade, which is buying banks, casinos, hotels, restaurants, weak dollar, weak buy market, weak gold—this is all temporary, this is just a trade. Those will all reverse themselves, probably by September if not sooner. So, if you missed the first round in the gold bull market, there’s certainly another chance to get back in.
Q: Do you think Biden and Harris will crash the stock market if elected?
A: No, since Biden started to run away in the polls, the stock market basically went straight up every day, and I prefer the stock market’s judgment on these things to opinion polls or talking heads. As far as Harris is concerned, she was the most middle of the road conservative pick of the 12 or so people they were looking at for vice president. Certainly, she’s a favorite with Wall Street, and isn’t it interesting they’re looking for the talents of a prosecutor in the White House? Who do you think they have in mind? So yes, that’s a net positive for the market. If anything, a new administration will bring a whole new round of Quantitative Easing and deficit spending, except it will be focused on bailing out Main Street, not Wall Street.
Q: Is the vaccine drug maker Moderna (MRNA) overbought here at 70?
A: Yes, I think to get any more appreciation you need to get an actual result on the many vaccines that are out there.
Q: Will Tesla (TSLA) pass 2,000 by year end?
A: I tend not to think so; Tesla had a once-in-a-lifetime 10-fold increase over a year. That is a very big move to digest, and while I’m saying people should keep their Tesla longs for the long term, short term you want to be selling calls against your long positions to hedge any downside and to take in some extra income.
Q: What caused ten-year US Treasury yields (TLT) to jump 14% yesterday? What will yields do from here?
A: Yields will go up and retest the 95-basis point level we saw a couple of months ago. That means we’re going to have a clear shot at adding shorts, probably for the next several weeks or months.
Q: I got the first TLT trade, but when I added the second one, I had to automatically close out my 175 short position to add the long 175 put position.
A: That is the correct way to do this. And what you end up with is a wider spread with a much larger size. So, you take all three positions we currently have, and you now have a (TLT) August $170-177.5 bear put spread in triple the original size and triple the profit, which expires in 5 trading days. It’s a trade with a very high return over a very short time frame. It’s the kind of trade that’s only available with very high volatilities in the market—at $25 in the (VIX), and you get very high accelerated time decay going into the close. So, it really was a two-week expiration play on the (TLT).
Q: Apple (AAPL) has been able to avoid any major damage in its share price in this trade war. How long can it last?
A: It can last 3 more months, until the election. It’s really quite amazing that the Chinese have not retaliated against Apple in all of these trade wars, and the reason for this is that Apple employs a million people in China, and they make a ton of money out of it. Apple has also managed their relationship with the communist government perfectly. So, that’s why they haven’t been hit. General Motors, other US companies—they could get expropriated. If the US can expropriate TikTok, what’s to stop China from expropriating General Motors, Starbucks, or even Apple for that matter?
Q: How do we know who has a real vaccine and who has a fake one? There’s so much information out there, I have a hard time filtering through what is real.
A: Wait for 100,000 people to try it out first—that’s what my plan is. That will be the safe way to do it. And if that means quarantining another couple of months to make sure you get the real deal, it’s worth the investment. Most industry safety standards, like animal trials, have been ditched by the FDA in order to get Trump a vaccine before the election. Putin is doing the same in Russia.
Q: Why is Warren Buffet buying back shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) in record amounts? Is it because he sees no good investments?
A: He’d rather buy his own shares at parity or at a small premium than pay record PE multiples for essentially anything else in the market. Because the government rushed in so quickly to support the stock market, there never were any real deals in stocks, they never really got cheap. Yes, it sounds like down 40% in 2 months is cheap, but stocks weren’t, not even close to cheap, on a PE multiple basis. We never got close to the 9 ½X we saw in 2009. Also, if you believe in a recovery play, the ultimate recovery play is Berkshire Hathaway because they own predominantly old-line industrial cash flow stocks, which will lead any real recovery in the economy. So, at this point, Berkshire Hathaway will probably get you a higher return on a 12-month view than say Apple, Facebook or Amazon.
Q: Gold (GLD) vs Silver (SLV)? Which is better? And what about Copper (FCX)?
A: Silver always outperforms gold by at least 2 to 1 in any real economic recovery. Copper prices have risen 30% in 4 months; that is discounting a real economic recovery someday, so I would be buying copper on dips also.
Q: How do we learn more about options?
A: I suggest you go to the “How to Trade” section on our website, and that has links. Every trade alert we send out also has a link to a video that tells you exactly how to do the options part of that trade. And if you don’t want to do options, we also propose ETF and single stocks.
Q: What year end effect on the market do you see from a Biden tax plan on long term capital gains and qualified dividends at the ordinary income rate?
A: Well, if he actually proposes that, there will be a rush to sell assets by the end of the current year so people can take advantage of the very favorable capital gains tax that exist now. However, it’s not known whether that is actually the tax increase he’s proposing; it’s more likely he’ll simply return to the pre-Trump tax rates. However, I do expect him to come up with highly punitive tax rates on any real estate-related investment as a way of getting back at Trump. And that’s like loss carry forwards, steps up in the cost basis, 1031 exchanges—things specific to the real estate industry.
Q: If you think markets are going to come off, why aren’t you more aggressive buying the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX)?
A: (VXX) has become such a professional market it really has become a day trading vehicle. It’s hard to get customers in and out of this thing fast enough to make them money, as most of my followers are not set up to be day traders. It’s a market where 90% of the professionals are playing from the short side, so when you get moves up, they essentially happen over 1 or 2 days, and then they spend weeks or months bleeding off. It really is a tough trade for a retail trader to do; and it is an area where the insiders in Chicago trade this thing and really do have an in-house advantage that I would rather not try to bet against.
Q: I sold the top on all precious metals positions and started buying back today. Was that the right thing to do?
A: Yes, I have a feeling it is. Start scaling in—if you’re nervous about buying gold here, buy a third of a position now, a third if it’s higher or lower, and a third if it’s higher or lower again. That’s what any pro would do.
Q: Do you see another big economic crisis in 2021?
A: I don’t think so; I think any continued weakness will be hit with massive liquidity from the Fed and more government spending. Now that they found the model to keep the economy going, they’re going to just keep at it, no matter who is in power. Roosevelt kept at it for 5 years to end the Great Depression, until he was bailed out by WWII, so hopefully we don’t have to bail our economy out the same way with WWIII.
Q: What about Bitcoin here?
A: We don’t trade Bitcoin as we think the whole thing is a giant scam. There’s also no value added by anyone. Insiders have a huge advantage, the people who are creating the bitcoin to sell. So, it’s a security with no fundamentals—thus unanalyzable.
Good Luck and Stay Healthy
John Thomas
CEO & Publisher
The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
August 11, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THIS IS NO MONKEY BUSINESS)
(JNJ), (MRNA), (AZN), (PFE), (MRK), (INO)
Hot on the trail of Moderna (MRNA), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Pfizer (PFE), biotechnology and healthcare titan Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) recently shared its progress on its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.
Recent reports show that JNJ’s vaccine protected the monkeys enrolled in its experiment from SARS-CoV-2 infection.
The success of this experiment pushed the company’s coronavirus vaccine efforts to start with human trials in the US and in Europe by the third quarter of 2020.
Hopefully, the JNJ will be able to provide conclusive data on its human trials by September.
Since the results of the human trials will take months before getting released, the efficacy and potency of JNJ’s vaccine can only be determined based on the available monkey data.
According to these, the JNJ vaccine might be more similar with Merck’s (MRK) candidate. That is, it might only require one injection compared to at least two doses required by its fellow vaccine makers.
Basically, this vaccine candidate involves a common cold virus called adenovirus or Ad26.
This virus is then modified to carry the coronavirus spike protein genetic material. When injected into humans, the modified Ad26 then slips into the cells and triggers the body to produce the coronavirus proteins.
Since Ad26 has been modified to only mimic the SARS-CoV-2, it cannot replicate but can trigger the body into putting up defenses against the COVID-19 virus.
The Ad26 vaccine uses the same technology the company applied in its Ebola vaccine sent to the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2019.
JNJ’s vaccine candidate received approval from European regulators in July, making it the first-ever virus-assisted gene delivery treatment approved for any disease.
Since March, JNJ has been working on at least seven variations of the Ad26 vaccine. The idea is to come up with various candidates that will target different types of patients.
Aside from JNJ, COVID-19 vaccine leader Moderna has also released its monkey data for its vaccine trials.
In the Moderna experiment, the monkeys were given two shots of the vaccine in the course of four weeks. After a month, the same animals were infected with the SARS-CoV-2.
The results showed that no trace of the coronavirus was found in some of the vaccinated monkeys. While others still got infected, the virus gradually disappeared over time without any treatment.
Another COVID-19 frontrunner, Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO), also released its monkey data.
The report covered four months from the day the monkeys were injected with Inovio’s vaccine candidate. According to the company’s findings, the infected animals only had traces of the coronavirus in their noses and lungs.
Other than JNJ, Moderna, and Inovio, both Pfizer and AstraZeneca also shared promising monkey data.
With a market capitalization of roughly $388 billion, JNJ is considered as one of the biggest biotechnology and healthcare companies in the world.
Apart from that, JNJ is one of the only two companies with an AAA credit rating. The other company is Microsoft (MSFT).
Needless to say, investing in an AAA-rated business with an impressive balance sheet makes buying JNJ stock an extremely low-risk and safe financial move.
JNJ has also been consistently regarded as a blue-chip dividend stock, offering a dependable 2.7% dividend.
While this may not be the highest yield you can get in the industry, JNJ has proven itself capable of handling the ups and downs of the market.
In fact, while most of the companies struggle to keep their heads above water, JNJ has surprisingly suffered minimal impact from this pandemic.
The company reported $20.7 billion in total revenue in the first quarter of 2020, showing off a 3.3% year-over-year climb in earnings and a 56.1% increase in earnings per share.
In JNJ’s second-quarter report, the company boosted its 2020 full-year guidance, with pharmaceutical revenue jumping to $18 billion and posting $3.6 billion in profits despite the 10.8% drop in sales.
One caveat when thinking about investing in JNJ is its widely reported talcum powder scandal. However, this issue poses no significant risk to the stock price since JNJ has already been penalized with billions of dollars.
More importantly, the company disclosed that it would no longer be selling baby powder. Clearly, the issue has been put to rest.
Regardless of how the COVID-19 vaccine race works out for JNJ, the company remains a solid investment. Its diverse product line alone makes it a financially resilient business. JNJ offers products from household items like Tylenol and Band-Aids to blockbuster drugs like severe psoriasis treatment Stelara.
Although JNJ is not particularly cheap at the moment, this stock is one of those investments that should be acquired at every pullback.
Since it is somewhat overvalued right now, my advice is to wait for a stock price correction soon and then pounce on the opportunity to own shares in this AAA-rated company.
Mad Hedge Biotech & Healthcare Letter
August 6, 2020
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE DOCTOR WILL SEE YOU NOW)
(TDOC), (MRNA), (PFE), (AZN)